Prospect Info: 2024 NHL Draft Thread

[evnted]

Was listening to Jason Bukula with Jeff Marek yesterday and he made two interesting points:

1. Iginla has worked his way up to the top 5 so if Calgary wants him they need to trade up

2. Demidov is “30% better than Michkov” which surprised me

Thoughts? @Guadana @StevenToddIves @evnted

smells like some MTL propaganda at work...

in any case, i think im a bit warmer on iginla here and i would be fine with him going top 5, i just find that specific cutoff...convenient lol. he's been on a meteoric rise all season and it feels like every month he's added some new wrinkle to his offensive game. to me, it's totally fair game to go extra bullish on a trajectory this sharp. his on puck play will seamlessly slide into an nhl top 6 wing role factoring in his cuts, how he attacks space, his willingness to drive the interior, his play off the boards, ALL of it is built for the modern nhl. plus, the progression of his playmaking game is both encouraging and well worth betting on early. as others have mentioned, he still requires work, particularly with off puck, but its not like a team taking him top 5 is passing on that many sure bets anyway, particuarly on defense

as for the michkov thing? funny. demidov is a fantastic talent and i want to make sure my response doesnt come off like im underselling him or dont think he can be a star player in the league; he is firmly #2 on my board. its just, michkov understands the game at such an exceptional level that i think most people projecting prospects basically cant wrap their head around it and, instead, opt for someone who plays a higher pace, flashier game, which feels easier to project. virtually everything michkov has done to this point is unprecedented. pulling out "30% better" is also straight mumbo jumbo lol. i really wish we had the opportunity to see demidov play at a level that was more appropriate, the mhl came too easily to him and his abject dominance has likely influenced this viewpoint

 

[Blackjack]

It's good.

But is it 10th oa good?

I'd feel better if he was putting up those numbers in the SweHL.

I think it’s in line. Carlsson scored 25 points in 44 games in the top league in 22-23 and went 2nd overall in one of the strongest drafts in league history.

Don’t get me wrong, I wouldn’t say 18 points in 41 games is amazing production for a 10OA, but I wouldn’t say it’s concerning either. He also followed that up with 10 points in 12 playoff games.

 

[devilsblood]

I think it’s in line. Carlsson scored 25 points in 44 games in the top league in 22-23 and went 2nd overall in one of the strongest drafts in league history.

Don’t get me wrong, I wouldn’t say 18 points in 41 games is amazing production for a 10OA, but I wouldn’t say it’s concerning either. He also followed that up with 10 points in 12 playoff games.

I see Dvorsky took the Swe-1 to 10oa just last year, but still Allsvenksan players going that high looks to be pretty rare, and Dvorsky was also 8 months younger.

 

[Guadana]

Was listening to Jason Bukula with Jeff Marek yesterday and he made two interesting points:

1. Iginla has worked his way up to the top 5 so if Calgary wants him they need to trade up

2. Demidov is “30% better than Michkov” which surprised me

Thoughts? @Guadana @StevenToddIves @evnted

1. May be, we dont know what other scouts thinks about him.
2. No, he isnt better. All this takes are just bias. Not because Demidov is bad - he is great, he would be number 1/2 candidate if he would be NA player. But Michkov is on another level of hockey IQ.

 

[HBK27]

Two more mock drafts to add to the pile...these two from the NHL Draft Class podcast:

They also mentioned that San Jose won the first 3 lottery drawings - wasn't until the 4th drawing that Chicago's numbers came up for the #2 pick.

 

[Guadana]

It's good.

But is it 10th oa good?

Yes.

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

1/2 ppg in the Allsvenskan as an 18 year old?

EDIT: Whoops thought the conversation was still on Helenius and not MBN

pretty sure i read he’s the second highest scoring u18 player of all time behind Barkov.

His offense is getting undersold because it’s always brought up with the caveat that he doesn’t have an elite toolkit. To me, that’s a bonus if you’re picking outside the top 3 or 4.

Give me the kid who’s outworking and outplaying seasoned pros at 17 despite not having typical “pro size,” not being a blazing skater, not having all-world puck skills, and not having a laser of a shot. Imagine if he’s able to improve on any one of those? That’s how you wind up with the steal of the draft.

TBH i’m trying not to get too hyped on him because i think someone’s gonna reach for him in the first 9 picks.

 

[Monsieur Verdoux]

Here's his write up on Helenius:

Helenius is a joy to watch navigate, manipulate and pass the puck with his smarts and intuition. He's got an ability to find his teammates in space and then get pucks to them with the perfect weight and timing, even while he’s well covered. He also stirs the drink...

Keywords. Obviously, he would be a great successor for Haula.

 

[Guadana]

A lot of mocks with Silayev very high. If he will be picked so high - I will be happy for him. I just cant wait for it.

 

[Blackjack]

EDIT: Whoops thought the conversation was still on Helenius and not MBN

pretty sure i read he’s the second highest scoring u18 player of all time behind Barkov.

His offense is getting undersold because it’s always brought up with the caveat that he doesn’t have an elite toolkit. To me, that’s a bonus if you’re picking outside the top 3 or 4.

Give me the kid who’s outworking and outplaying seasoned pros at 17 despite not having typical “pro size,” not being a blazing skater, not having all-world puck skills, and not having a laser of a shot. Imagine if he’s able to improve on any one of those? That’s how you wind up with the steal of the draft.

TBH i’m trying not to get too hyped on him because i think someone’s gonna reach for him in the first 9 picks.

That’s okay, I actually forgot myself a couple times! MBN did break the record for 18 YO scoring in the Swe-1 playoffs and I started mixing that up with Helenius’s stats, haha.

FWIW I’d love Helenius and I agree with your comments completely.

 

[Xirik]

Okay just hear me out.

1.We draft baby Jiricek cause he's good and we can use him to tempt David Jiricek to eventually come here.

2. We rename the team the New Jersey Temptress's or Sirens

3. We end up getting Quinn Hughes, David Jiricek, and Adam Nemec when they turn rogue on their original teams

 

[Goptor]

@evnted gave a great response here, but I'm going to add my own opinion.

If Helenius, Buium and Dickinson are all gone with the Devils drafting at #10, I truly feel there will be a strong chance that Fitzgerald and the NJ brass would strongly consider Brandsegg-Nygard at #10 overall.

Fitzgerald has already shown he doesn't much care about the consensus rankings (see: Mukhamadullin, Nemec). He's willing to identify the guy he wants and take him.

The big argument here is actually downright silly -- "the Devils would take Catton over Brandsegg-Nygard because they need a center". I mean, if two regular joes like myself and @Guadana can see with relative ease that Brandsegg-Nygard is more likely to play center in the NHL than Catton, I'm sure it's also come up in the Devils' scouting meetings. Just because Catton is listed in mock drafts at C and Brandsegg-Nygard at RW doesn't exactly set things in stone.

So the answer to your question is that -- in your scenario -- I would hope the Devils would draft Brandsegg-Nygard at #10, and it would also feel to me as absolutely a real possibility.

My #2 choice in this scenario still would not be Iginla or Catton or Eiserman -- it would be either Chernyshov or Hage. It might sound weird to some people, but I have all 5 of these players ranked fairly similarly. Also, I truly feel the Devils need to start concentrating again on building team speed. Hage is easily the best skater of these 5, and Chernyshov is easily second. Although Eiserman clearly has the most offensive upside of the 5, he also has the weakest overall game. Although Catton has the second-most offensive upside, he is the smallest and probably at the bottom of the list if you're just ranking the skating skills.

I really really like Iginla so he would be tough to pass on for me. I'd also be happy if we drafted him. But for the Devils, I think Brandsegg-Nygard would be the best pick here. He's a power forward who is also a high-end skater, he has a bomb of a shot and an elite combo of hockey IQ/compete level, he is the best defensive winger in the entire draft and could project to center. It just makes sense.

Assuming Fitz was as good of a draft guy as Shero, What would be the chance of trading down to get those 3 players?

Is there a team that would jump up for Iginla/Catton/Eiserman and would the teams just after #10 have as much interest in Nygard, Chernyshov, or Hage as the Devils?

 

[Brodeur]

Just bought draft tickets, they certainly priced them to scare off a casual fan.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Quick search on Brandsegg, and I see modest production in a lower league from one of the older guys in the draft.

The physical tools are enticing, but sounds like his development will take time, with a decent risk of it not panning out.


Ya, he could be a very good 3C which would be great for us.

A good thing about needing centers is, when you draft for need, it's typically BPA anyways.

Brandsegg-Nygard is actually -- alongside maybe Helenius and Chernyshov -- closer to the NHL than any F in the draft not named Celebrini or Demidov. He's already capable of a bottom 6 role because he's so intelligent and fundamentally sound, good defensively and mature physically. I would prefer the team that drafts him wait at least a season until signing him, however, if only to abet his development offensively, where he would certainly benefit from some refinement.

Brandsegg-Nygard is also in my opinion -- alongside Helenius -- the lowest risk forward in this draft aside from Celebrini and Demidov. At the very least we're talking about a strong defensive and physical presence in your bottom 6 who can produce more offense than most grinder-types because of his terrific shot, propensity to go to the net and high intelligence.

The question with Brandsegg-Nygard is not can he become a regular in the NHL? The question is simply: can he become a high-scoring top-6 power forward? Though this is not a question you would want to ask with a #2 overall pick, I don't see it as so bad in a #10 overall pick, especially in a draft that's top-heavy with defensemen and doesn't offer many sure bets at forward.

Personally, I feel Brandsegg-Nygard's most likely scenario is a 30+ goal 2nd line power forward who is also nominated for a Selke Trophy or two. But I'm also not sure his ceiling isn't higher. His combination of IQ/compete/power/speed is, after all, fairly rare.

As far as Brandsegg-Nygard's "production" goes, this is certainly a player who cannot be remotely assessed by looking at his stat line whatsoever. You're talking about a kid who was among the youngest handful of skaters in Allvenskan, which is a men's league, and also a kid who takes care of his defensive responsibilities first and foremost. If he played in the USHL with the all-offense mindset of, say, Cole Eiserman? Well, I'm sure his numbers would be pretty huge, too.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Was listening to Jason Bukula with Jeff Marek yesterday and he made two interesting points:

1. Iginla has worked his way up to the top 5 so if Calgary wants him they need to trade up

2. Demidov is “30% better than Michkov” which surprised me

Thoughts? @Guadana @StevenToddIves @evnted

1. Depends on who you talk to in the most wide-open draft I can remember.Personally, I see a clear 1-2 of Celebrini-Demidov, but thereafter it's so close between 3-16 or whatever that rankings are going to be all over the place. I think Iginla will be on a couple NHL draft boards in the top 5, and on others maybe in the low teens. A lot of teams in the top 9 need defense more than forwards and it's defense heavy at the top of the draft class. I think it's very realistic to project Iginla at #9 overall to Calgary still.

2. I don't understand the Michkov hate, The kid is special. He was far and away Sochi's best player this year as an 18/19 year old. I like Demidov's intangibles and 200-foot game over Michkov, but I think Michkov is even more offensively gifted, and as much as I love Demidov that's saying quite a lot.

Yeah, that's the lowest I've seen him ranked - albeit in limited research - though Wheeler also has him ranked 11th on his list.

Not sure if Wheeler's list is posted:

Tier 1

1. Celebrini

Tier 2

2. Demidov
3. Levshunov

Tier 3

4. Buium
5. Parekh
6. Eiserman
7. Dickinson
8. Catton
9. Helenius
10. Silayev
11. Lindstrom

Tier 4

12. Iginla
13. Yakemchuk
14. Brandsegg-Nygard
15. Hage
16. Sennecke
17. Connelly

I look at Wheeler's ranking of Parekh and Eiserman and just cannot wait to hear what @Guadana has to say.

 

[CalamityX23]

Thank you and appreciate the Helenius reviews....

High IQ is always super welcome on any team. Do we need more of that? IQ wise, i'd rate us pretty fair to strong in that offensively speaking. Hughes, Nico, Dawson, Palat, Bratt, Timo even, Lazar.... IQ is there, sometimes the default to fatigue or mind wtfs happens do happen(Hughes bros IMHO more so than anyone).

So maybe that's what's keeping me from cheering. We need plain old talent on the Ice. You can have 100 Engineers out there but you still need someone/people to build the damn building/bridge etc...

So maybe that's where I'm at in this moment. We lost out guys on talent in speed/size/hustle etc.....need to replace that opportunistically.

Outside of coaching input/system installment, the IQ wasn't so gut wrenching. IF ANYTHING, more IQ needed on Defense than forwards from my pov.

But Helenius does provide that on ice work and impact as many said, it's mostly driven by his intelligence rather than physical skillset or intangibles. I just need more convincing... right now, it's Ignila or Nygard for me....

 

[Guadana]

1. Depends on who you talk to in the most wide-open draft I can remember.Personally, I see a clear 1-2 of Celebrini-Demidov, but thereafter it's so close between 3-16 or whatever that rankings are going to be all over the place. I think Iginla will be on a couple NHL draft boards in the top 5, and on others maybe in the low teens. A lot of teams in the top 9 need defense more than forwards and it's defense heavy at the top of the draft class. I think it's very realistic to project Iginla at #9 overall to Calgary still.

2. I don't understand the Michkov hate, The kid is special. He was far and away Sochi's best player this year as an 18/19 year old. I like Demidov's intangibles and 200-foot game over Michkov, but I think Michkov is even more offensively gifted, and as much as I love Demidov that's saying quite a lot.


I look at Wheeler's ranking of Parekh and Eiserman and just cannot wait to hear what @Guadana has to say.

Yeah, that's the lowest I've seen him ranked - albeit in limited research - though Wheeler also has him ranked 11th on his list.

Not sure if Wheeler's list is posted:

Tier 1

1. Celebrini

Tier 2

2. Demidov
3. Levshunov

Tier 3

4. Buium
5. Parekh
6. Eiserman
7. Dickinson
8. Catton
9. Helenius
10. Silayev
11. Lindstrom

Tier 4

12. Iginla
13. Yakemchuk
14. Brandsegg-Nygard
15. Hage
16. Sennecke
17. Connelly

5 Parekh
6 Eiserman
11 Lindstrom


Wheeler is the same old Wheeler.

 

[StevenToddIves]

CLB has enough of defensmen, they need Lindstrom hard. They need second center and build better offense.
Overall its okay mock draft.




Silayev second is waaay too high. I understand potential but his game with the puck is limiting his potential on the both sides of the ice.

Columbus has an A-grade RD prospect in Jiricek, and A-minus-grade LD prospect in Mateychuk, a B-plus-grade LD prospect in Svozil, and a couple other bottom-pairing-type depth prospects in LD Knazko and RD Ceulemans.

They have an A-plus grade franchise center to build around in Fantilli, and a good young depth center in Sillinger. Their only viable prospect up the middle is Del Bel Belluz, who maybe has some 2nd line upside.

I think they take Levshunov if he falls to #4, but otherwise I agree with you that they should probably go for Lindstrom.

 

[longislanddevil]

I would be surprised if Helenius is off the board by the time we pick at 10OA. I keep seeing him in that 10-13 range.

 

[StevenToddIves]

5 Parekh
6 Eiserman
11 Lindstrom


Wheeler is the same old Wheeler.

One day Wheeler will see where he screws up year in and year out and start factoring in compete level, physicality and 200-foot play somewhere in his player ratings, even if it's only on a secondary level.

I would be surprised if Helenius is off the board by the time we pick at 10OA. I keep seeing him in that 10-13 range.

I would not be surprised because Helenius is a center in a draft thin at center, and Helenius is a very, very good center. I agree he's not the sexiest pick in this draft, but whooo boy is he a good pick.

 

[Monsieur Verdoux]

Thank you and appreciate the Helenius reviews....

High IQ is always super welcome on any team. Do we need more of that? IQ wise, i'd rate us pretty fair to strong in that offensively speaking. Hughes, Nico, Dawson, Palat, Bratt, Timo even, Lazar.... IQ is there, sometimes the default to fatigue or mind wtfs happens do happen(Hughes bros IMHO more so than anyone).

So maybe that's what's keeping me from cheering. We need plain old talent on the Ice. You can have 100 Engineers out there but you still need someone/people to build the damn building/bridge etc...

So maybe that's where I'm at in this moment. We lost out guys on talent in speed/size/hustle etc.....need to replace that opportunistically.

Outside of coaching input/system installment, the IQ wasn't so gut wrenching. IF ANYTHING, more IQ needed on Defense than forwards from my pov.

But Helenius does provide that on ice work and impact as many said, it's mostly driven by his intelligence rather than physical skillset or intangibles. I just need more convincing... right now, it's Ignila or Nygard for me....

I'd say that Helenius is more skilled than Nygard. He has also above average compete (it's a strength for Nygard too). Nygard might be a better skater, and of course he has more size.

 

[forceten]

I would be surprised if Helenius is off the board by the time we pick at 10OA. I keep seeing him in that 10-13 range.

I'm terrified now that we seem to be getting attached to the idea he will be.

 

[My3Sons]

I'm terrified now that we seem to be getting attached to the idea he will be.

Then someone else will be there. There seems to be a core of maybe five guys that seem to be consensus top selections. That leaves four guys from a group of maybe 7 or 8 who will go before NJ. Dickinson, Buium, and Catton all seem somewhat projected ahead of 10 and then you have Parekh. I trust @StevenToddIves and @Guadana when they assess defenders that are a bit too biased towards puck moving and offense. Not that he won't be a great player but I'm sort of hoping he's taken in the 7-9 range so one more forward falls. My best guess is Catton goes before Helenius which helps push Helenius down?

 

[evnted]

High IQ is always super welcome on any team. Do we need more of that?

always, can never have enough smart players on a roster

So maybe that's what's keeping me from cheering. We need plain old talent on the Ice. You can have 100 Engineers out there but you still need someone/people to build the damn building/bridge etc...

So maybe that's where I'm at in this moment. We lost out guys on talent in speed/size/hustle etc.....need to replace that opportunistically.

when it comes to prospects, generally speaking the smarter, more committed kids give you the best chance to maximize their talents when compared to someone who is supremely talented but inconsistently engaged and/or lacking iq. so what feels like compromising on skill level come draft day might not be the case long term

lets put background aside for a sec and compare connelly to helenius here. there is no question that trevor is faster, a better handler, a better shooter, and an overall more dangerous offensive threat. that said, his play is tunnel visioned, selfish, reckless, and simply wont be tolerated on an nhl roster without dramatic change. so, while it looks great in the ushl when he has carte blanche to go rogue with the puck, there are substantial concerns over whether or not he can scale/translate that talent to the pros, not to mention a personality that doesnt inspire much confidence that itll be a smooth process

meanwhile, helenius is still a crafty playmaker in his own right, and with a bit of an underrated shot as well (not to imply high end, just underappreciated), but his brains/compete level inspire way more confidence that he can translate his skill level because he is always engaged, always making smart decisions with the puck, and proving that he can play his game at multiple levels, in multiple age groups, and with all different skill level linemates

all of this to say, while connelly would likely crush helenius in puck drills or something of the sorts, we have a much stronger proof of concept that konsta can apply his skillset to a professional roster without having to change much of anything about his game, whereas connelly is nowhere near rosterable at this point, and that might put into question just how good of a player he can be long term. plus, not to mention, itll be way, way easier for konsta to improve his footspeed or work on developing a stronger shot than it will be for connelly to restructure his mindset on the puck

 

[Guadana]

Columbus has an A-grade RD prospect in Jiricek, and A-minus-grade LD prospect in Mateychuk, a B-plus-grade LD prospect in Svozil, and a couple other bottom-pairing-type depth prospects in LD Knazko and RD Ceulemans.

They have an A-plus grade franchise center to build around in Fantilli, and a good young depth center in Sillinger. Their only viable prospect up the middle is Del Bel Belluz, who maybe has some 2nd line upside.

I think they take Levshunov if he falls to #4, but otherwise I agree with you that they should probably go for Lindstrom.

I dont see Lindstrom past through mtl. And columbus, because I have little belief Ducks will not draft Levshunov.

What do I think about Eiserman and Lindstrom? I would never NEVER draft Eiserman over Lindstrom even if I would have Gauthier, McTavish and Carlsson in the roster. Even if Eiserman will score 50 on NHL level, there are millions ways for Lindstrom to be more useful with his skill set - interior play, physical play, center duties. And overall this story about 50 goals - there is a very little chance for Eiserman. Because shooting is the latest thing to make it work - there are tonns of work before. We have shooters every year, even Caul Caufield is a great shooter and overall good player - much better player overall, but he cant just stand and score 50 freaking goals.

You mentioned Badinka few posts ago - I would draft Badinka if other players are not available. Senneke. Greentree. I would draft Surin over him or Frej. Jiricek? Of course! Iginla\Hage\Catton\Chernyshov\Nygard\Helenius\ all this high profile defensemen its easier to draft them over Eiserman. It is even easy to draft Connely over him. Lindstrom? 200 foot physical fighter, huge bull with good skating who is big, playing big, has nice shot, can manipulate, playing awesome interior game - he is rare high profile player who is very hard on the net, can redirect and screen the goalie. How often we see the player who is top-3\5 potential pick and he is playing net front role? Because he is net driver and net crusher. Its rare. Skill and interior game of this level of interior game is very rare. (when I use "interior" I mean - puck battles, net battles, play in corners, on the boards, etc. Hope Im using this rightfully) Lindstrom is very hard to play against. He is very big physical and active forechecker. He will succeed in NHL. Because he has everything to do it. He will become first\second physical scorer as a perfect complementary player for playmaker or he will become awesome net driving first line center who will burn opponents. I would LOVE to draft him.

Whats about Wheeler thinking? I dont know. He should never watch NHL games to put Parekh and Eiserman over Lindstrom. We should rank "scouting IQ" by things like that.

I would be surprised if Helenius is off the board by the time we pick at 10OA. I keep seeing him in that 10-13 range.

Helenius is center with good hockey iq. There are about 4 centers top-10 quality. So its very realistic to not see him available for 10th pick.