2024 NHL Draft Thread - Upd: Draft Lottery is May 7th

[u2wojo]

I don't understand this. The Hawks made their trade first. Why should that pick get deferred ANOTHER year? Honestly, give me the 2026 pick. Hawks should have a pretty good squad, and a top 5 pick from Tampa would be amazing. Yes, I think Tampa is a couple years away from a full tear down and rebuild.

I can't see a full tear down in Tampa that soon. Although Hedman and Stamkos are soon to be 34, Kucherov and Vasi are just sneaking into their 30's and all of Sergachov, Cernak, Point, Cirelli, & Hagel are still solidly in their 20's and signed for at least 6 more years. The cap going up the next 2 seasons means that some or most of those deals become better values for the 20 somethings and they'll have plenty of room to resign Stamkos and then Hedman the next 2 Summers and have some cap leftover to add some depth they have not been able to the past few seasons (without mortgaging the future to get guys like Hagel and Jeannot).

The Hagel trade may end up being the optimal timing (of getting Tampa 1sts) in that Tampa was top heavy in salaries in a terrible cap market with Covid knee capping any normal cap growth leaving them with no ability to add depth.

 

[ClydeLee]

I don't understand this. The Hawks made their trade first. Why should that pick get deferred ANOTHER year? Honestly, give me the 2026 pick. Hawks should have a pretty good squad, and a top 5 pick from Tampa would be amazing. Yes, I think Tampa is a couple years away from a full tear down and rebuild.

The Hawks pick wouldn't be differed it just always was to be 2026 if it turned out this way. I said from the start the wording seemed to be if it's top 10 2024, it's unprotected 2026.

It didn't seem like 2 different shots of getting unprotected 2025. It was always the year ahead

 

[cassac]

The Hawks pick wouldn't be differed it just always was to be 2026 if it turned out this way. I said from the start the wording seemed to be if it's top 10 2024, it's unprotected 2026.

It didn't seem like 2 different shots of getting unprotected 2025. It was always the year ahead

Exactly. The 2023 pick was protected with the unprotected 2025 going to the Hawks if Tampa picked in the top ten. 2026 was always the fall back for 2024.

 

[bwana63]

I don't understand this. The Hawks made their trade first. Why should that pick get deferred ANOTHER year? Honestly, give me the 2026 pick. Hawks should have a pretty good squad, and a top 5 pick from Tampa would be amazing. Yes, I think Tampa is a couple years away from a full tear down and rebuild.

While I'd love TB to fall into the Top 10, I'd even be happier if they decided to defer. Waiting to '26 would suck, but there's a good chance that pick will yield an elite or near elite player.

 

[Castle8130]

If you want to look at some videos of prospects, I recommend Simon Servant on youtube. He speaks in French, but he goes over 3 games from each player

 

[WarriorofTime]

I'm still lost on what year that pick can move to if it hits the proper condition (top 10 pick). Nashville getting their 2025 pick with conditions that it could turn into a 2026 pick just further complicates it.

Need an official source to clarify on it, because I havent found any clarity so far online.

It's not in the CBA from my search, but common sense and basic fairness would indicate that it should flow sequentially from when trades made, i.e., if the 2024 pick doesn't convey to the Hawks, the 2025 unprotected pick would convey to the Hawks.

When Nashville makes the trade, they are presumably aware of the conditional nature of the Tampa 2025 pick, the Hawks would have zero way to know that Tampa would convey the 2025 pick away in a future trade... why would they be subject to a conditionality involving a future trade? In which case, the pick Nashville acquires gets kicked a year.

 

[WarriorofTime]

RE: Tampa Bay draft pick.



The 2024 pick would become an unprotected 2026 pick. That is what allowed the Lightning to move their 2025 to Nashville (with conditions as Chicago could still have moved from 2023 to 2025 at the time of the trade).

If that's the deal, then that's the deal, but where are you pulling that from, source wise?

 

[BHawk21]

I would want the 11 now instead of rolling the dice on 2026.

1. Celebrini
11. Jiricek/Helenius/Catton


I think top ten is some order of

Celebrini
Lindstrom
Eiserman
Levshunov
Dickinson
Silayev
Demidov
Yakumchuk

 

[CallMeShaft]

I would want the 11 now instead of rolling the dice on 2026.

1. Celebrini
11. Jiricek/Helenius/Yakemchuk


I think top ten is some order of

Celebrini
Lindstrom
Eiserman
Levshunov
Dickinson
Silayev
Demidov
Catton

2026 is a long ass time away, and the wait would suck, but I could definitely see Tampa as one of the worst teams in the league by then. Hedman, if they re-signed him (he hits free agency in 2025), would be 35 and have a ton of miles on him. Stamkos is either gone then, or likely a shell of his current form. Sergachev is already overpaid and having to take more of Hedman's role would get him even more exposed defensively. They lack depth already with an empty pipeline (though in this scenario, they would have a recent top 10 pick in the system). Oh, and Vasi doesn't look close to his Vezina days (even last season pre-injury).

All this to say that Tampa could potentially be a bottom 5 team in 25-26. Hawks could end up getting a top 5 pick like Colorado got for Duchene or Ottawa got for Karlsson; those picks were used to select Makar and Stutzle (respectively). It'd take a while to get here, but could be worth it in the long run.

 

[Hawkster]

If that's the deal, then that's the deal, but where are you pulling that from, source wise?

Cap friendly, Pro sports transactions and some notes I made at the time of the trade.

 

[Kevin Musto]

I would want the 11 now instead of rolling the dice on 2026.

1. Celebrini
11. Jiricek/Helenius/Catton


I think top ten is some order of

Celebrini
Lindstrom
Eiserman
Levshunov
Dickinson
Silayev
Demidov
Yakumchuk

I'd probably prefer the 2026 pick.

Not in love with the players in this draft.

And as Shaft said, Tampa could be a bottom 5 team by then.

To have a potential top 5 pick come in at what could be the end of the rebuild on an ELC... lots of value there.

 

[Hawkster]

Current permutations with the 1st rounders the Hawks 'own'.

Scenario 1: The Expected
2024 - Chicago, Tampa Bay (top 10 protected)
2025 - Chicago, Toronto (top 10 protected)
2026 - Chicago

Scenario 2
2024 - Chicago
2025 - Chicago, Toronto (top 10 protected)
2026 - Chicago, Tampa Bay (unprotected)

Scenario 3
2024 - Chicago, Tampa Bay (top 10 protected)
2025 - Chicago
2026 - Chicago, Toronto (unprotected)

Scenario 4
2024 - Chicago
2025 - Chicago
2026 - Chicago, Tampa Bay, Toronto (both unprotected)

 

[BHawk21]

I think Tampas franchise is so rock solid top 5 pick would be surprising to me in two years.

Kucherov
Point
Hagel
Cirelli
Paul
Sergachev
Cernak
Vasilevski

All still signed at that time

 

[Styles]

I still don’t think that’s right. I don’t recall an unprotected 1st round pick ever skipping a year. Again I was under the understanding the only way we would get a 26 pick is if the 23 and 24 picks were in the top ten. Therefore gettting a 25 and 26 pick unprotected. Obviously Nashville owns the 25 pick right now because the 24 pick is undecided as of now.

You would think that GMs would do this more often with trades if it was an option.

 

[Wally1112pac]

I'd rather have Tampa's 1st this year.

You can get a good prospect if it falls between 11-14.

There is too much unknown with Tampa by the time '26 rolls around. If they lose Hedman they lose Hedman. But than they have an extra 8 mil to spend which you know they will to bring in a different star player. Same with Stamkos. Star player gone, star player in. They will be in win now mode until Kucherov and Point fall off and that will be around 2030 or just before.

They are having an off year this year. I say take the pick and run.

 

[CallMeShaft]

I think Tampas franchise is so rock solid top 5 pick would be surprising to me in two years.

Kucherov
Point
Hagel
Cirelli
Paul
Sergachev
Cernak
Vasilevski

All still signed at that time

Toews
Kane
Keith
DeBrincat
Saad
Anisimov
Murphy
Schmaltz/Strome
Seabrook
Crawford

Those are some of the players on the 17-18 and 18-19 seasons of the Chicago Blackhawks when they drafted top 10 (albeit, they did get lucky in the 2019 draft).

Point is, it's easy to list off good players on a team now and expect their play not to diminish as they get older. But as us Hawks fans have witnessed, it happens. Guys get long in the tooth and team depth takes a hit. It happens to most contenders eventually.

 

[u2wojo]

Toews
Kane
Keith
DeBrincat
Saad
Anisimov
Murphy
Schmaltz/Strome
Seabrook
Crawford

Those are some of the players on the 17-18 and 18-19 seasons of the Chicago Blackhawks when they drafted top 10 (albeit, they did get lucky in the 2019 draft).

Point is, it's easy to list off good players on a team now and expect their play not to diminish as they get older. But as us Hawks fans have witnessed, it happens. Guys get long in the tooth and team depth takes a hit. It happens to most contenders eventually.

Minus a lotto win, those picks both should have been back half of the top 10. I would rather take a pick in the 15-20 range this draft then to wait 2 drafts in the hopes of the wheeels falling off of Tampa and maybe a pick in '26 ending up top 10. You have no idea at this point if the '26 draft will be good bad or indifferent. A top 10 pick in a down draft year may not be any better then a pick in the teens this....potentially. The two top 10 picks the Hawks got in those down years with the luck of a lotto win ended up not being particularly elite in Dach and Boqvist in the end.

With the cap increasing the next couple of Summers, I don't expect either Stamkos or Hedman will be getting any more than they currently cost and there will be a little more wiggle room to add a depth piece or two rather than just dumpster diving for league minimum guys to fill out the roster. Tampa is a destination with it's state tax structure and a roster with a handful of stars that have won Cups still there.

 

[Kevin Musto]

Minus a lotto win, those picks both should have been back half of the top 10. I would rather take a pick in the 15-20 range this draft then to wait 2 drafts in the hopes of the wheeels falling off of Tampa and maybe a pick in '26 ending up top 10. You have no idea at this point if the '26 draft will be good bad or indifferent. A top 10 pick in a down draft year may not be any better then a pick in the teens this....potentially. The two top 10 picks the Hawks got in those down years with the luck of a lotto win ended up not being particularly elite in Dach and Boqvist in the end.

With the cap increasing the next couple of Summers, I don't expect either Stamkos or Hedman will be getting any more than they currently cost and there will be a little more wiggle room to add a depth piece or two rather than just dumpster diving for league minimum guys to fill out the roster. Tampa is a destination with it's state tax structure and a roster with a handful of stars that have won Cups still there.

It's still better to spread out our top picks.

 

[CallMeShaft]

Minus a lotto win, those picks both should have been back half of the top 10. I would rather take a pick in the 15-20 range this draft then to wait 2 drafts in the hopes of the wheeels falling off of Tampa and maybe a pick in '26 ending up top 10. You have no idea at this point if the '26 draft will be good bad or indifferent. A top 10 pick in a down draft year may not be any better then a pick in the teens this....potentially. The two top 10 picks the Hawks got in those down years with the luck of a lotto win ended up not being particularly elite in Dach and Boqvist in the end.

With the cap increasing the next couple of Summers, I don't expect either Stamkos or Hedman will be getting any more than they currently cost and there will be a little more wiggle room to add a depth piece or two rather than just dumpster diving for league minimum guys to fill out the roster. Tampa is a destination with it's state tax structure and a roster with a handful of stars that have won Cups still there.

I realize that the Hawks drafted Boqvist 8th and only managed to get Dach at 3rd because of the lottery. That doesn't change the fact that the Hawks had a ton of high-end talent that, over the span of a just a couple of years, had noticeable drop-offs in play.

The 25-26 season is two years from now. One of the seasons I compared to was the 17-18 season. Two years prior to that season (which would've been the 15-16 season), the team was attempting to defend their recent cup victory. And a year prior to that season (which would've been the 16-17 season), they were the best regular season team in the western conference.

Tampa is further away than that already. They are a couple years removed from their last cup win, and they certainly aren't finishing 1st in their conference this season. It'd hardly be shocking if a team that might finish outside the playoffs this season, a team that has a few key pieces on the wrong side of 30, a team that is continually up against the cap, a team that has one of the worst pipelines in the league, were to be a bottom 5 team in two years time.

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

I can't see a full tear down in Tampa that soon. Although Hedman and Stamkos are soon to be 34, Kucherov and Vasi are just sneaking into their 30's and all of Sergachov, Cernak, Point, Cirelli, & Hagel are still solidly in their 20's and signed for at least 6 more years. The cap going up the next 2 seasons means that some or most of those deals become better values for the 20 somethings and they'll have plenty of room to resign Stamkos and then Hedman the next 2 Summers and have some cap leftover to add some depth they have not been able to the past few seasons (without mortgaging the future to get guys like Hagel and Jeannot).

The Hagel trade may end up being the optimal timing (of getting Tampa 1sts) in that Tampa was top heavy in salaries in a terrible cap market with Covid knee capping any normal cap growth leaving them with no ability to add depth.

Just FYI - TB has essentially "earmarked" all of the $4.7M cap increase for next year to Hagel because his cap hit goes up from $1.5M to $6.5M. They don't have any significant contracts except Stamkos expiring, so if they want to improve the depth of the team, the only way that happens is SS taking a huge haircut, or letting him go and doling out his $8.5M to 2-3 players next year. They DESPERATELY need to improve the blueline because they have 3 guys making the league minimum (CDH being one them), and the only way for cap space is if they let SS go (or trade one of their core).

Agree they can't "tear it down", because they've got Point, Hagel, Cirelli, Sergachev and Cernak locked up for 5+ years and Vasi for 4 years all at big $'s. IMO - they have to let SS go, and then they'd have about $11M to fill 3 roster spots (SS replacement and 2 legit NHL d-men). The problem is that they've mortgaged the future for the last 7-8 years of play-off runs, so there isn't much talent in the pipeline, and they haven't really replaced the "glue" guys like Palat, Killorn, Goodrow, Gourde, & McDonough,

 

[EddieTheEagle]

Just FYI - TB has essentially "earmarked" all of the $4.7M cap increase for next year to Hagel because his cap hit goes up from $1.5M to $6.5M. They don't have any significant contracts except Stamkos expiring, so if they want to improve the depth of the team, the only way that happens is SS taking a huge haircut, or letting him go and doling out his $8.5M to 2-3 players next year. They DESPERATELY need to improve the blueline because they have 3 guys making the league minimum (CDH being one them), and the only way for cap space is if they let SS go (or trade one of their core).

Agree they can't "tear it down", because they've got Point, Hagel, Cirelli, Sergachev and Cernak locked up for 5+ years and Vasi for 4 years all at big $'s. IMO - they have to let SS go, and then they'd have about $11M to fill 3 roster spots (SS replacement and 2 legit NHL d-men). The problem is that they've mortgaged the future for the last 7-8 years of play-off runs, so there isn't much talent in the pipeline, and they haven't really replaced the "glue" guys like Palat, Killorn, Goodrow, Gourde, & McDonough,

I think they will trade Stamkos or let him walk and then spend that money on two players for better depth. He is a luxury on a team like that and they've proven they don't need him to be successful.

 

[Drumman44]

I think they will trade Stamkos or let him walk and then spend that money on two players for better depth. He is a luxury on a team like that and they've proven they don't need him to be successful.

It's the cold, harsh reality of the situation. Where do you think he ends up? I assume he's going to want a 7 year deal in free agency.

 

[d rake]

Scott Powers just clarified in the comments of the article he published today that the pick would be unprotected in 2025 if it gets deferred.

Who could be on the Blackhawks' radar with another top-6 draft pick in 2024?

The 2024 draft is stacked enough at the top that the Blackhawks could be able to select another potential game-changing player.

theathletic.com

 

[CallMeShaft]

Scott Powers just clarified in the comments of the article he published today that the pick would be unprotected in 2025 if it gets deferred.

Who could be on the Blackhawks' radar with another top-6 draft pick in 2024?

The 2024 draft is stacked enough at the top that the Blackhawks could be able to select another potential game-changing player.

theathletic.com

View attachment 786619

Alright, thank you Scotty!

Now let's all hope for a bottom 10 finish for Tampa. I can wait a year for another top 10 pick.

 

[Joemoe]

Just like I thought, whoever was first in line gets their pick and then the next gets pushed back, never made sense to me if the Preds got their pick before the Hawks.