GDT: 2024 NHL Draft Thread

[Viqsi]

this isn't actually true in practice, though. most deals for established centers take the exact form of teams leveraging organizational depth to put together a futures-oriented, multi-piece offer.

to go ahead and source that claim, here are a few recent ones that come to mind:

1. horvat to NYI for beauvillier + raty + 2023 1st
2. hertl w/retention + two 3rds to VGK for edstrom + 2025 1st
3. lindholm to CGY for kuzmenko, jurmo, brzustewicz, 2024 1st + 2024 4th
4. eichel + 3rd to VGK for tuch, krebs, 22 1st and 23 2nd
5. reinhart to FLA for levi + a 2022 1st
6. trocheck to CAR for haula, wallmark, priskie and luostarinen

i'm also not saying the jackets would be exclusively packaging wingers in a trade for a center. i'm saying that drafting a high-ceiling winger (demidov, for example) would make it more palatable to include someone like chinakhov and/or dumais in a package the next time a big fish hits the market.

they've built up a ton of organizational depth. the focus now should turn to improving at the top of the lineup. with a top five draft pick + a deep war chest of trade chips, that's very doable.

Note that all of those packages have a whole hell of a lot of adds along with the wingers.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Note that all of those packages have a whole hell of a lot of adds along with the wingers.

i mean… sure? but they're all minor adds relative to what those teams got by adding a star center. and the jackets will find themselves in the same position as their young core players start to mature.

if an eichel type center hit the market, would you really balk at giving up a package of marchenko, sillinger, dumais and a 1st? that's pretty comparable to the VGK package of tuch, krebs and a 1st.

if it's someone older (more comparable to the hertl or horvat trades) they could still easily build a package around wingers and picks, given recent history.

drafting a demidov or sennecke makes the other wingers expendable, and makes a package with multiple wingers very doable given that NHL-ready wing depth is easy to find (see: alex nylander)

 

[Viqsi]

i mean… sure? but they're all minor adds relative to what those teams got by adding a star center. and the jackets will find themselves in the same position as their young core players start to mature.

if an eichel type center hit the market, would you really balk at giving up a package of marchenko, sillinger, dumais and a 1st? that's pretty comparable to the VGK package of tuch, krebs and a 1st.

drafting a demidov or sennecke makes the other wingers expendable, and makes a package with multiple wingers very doable given that NHL-ready wing depth is easy to find (see: alex nylander)

I wouldn't, per se. But I do think that we wouldn't have to put in as many adds if we were giving away a Lindstrom in that package instead.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

I wouldn't, per se. But I do think that we wouldn't have to put in as many adds if we were giving away a Lindstrom in that package instead.

my point is that they wouldn't have to give up a lindstrom or demidov in a package to get a center.

centers also take longer to make an NHL impact than wingers. none of lindstrom, demidov or sennecke will be ready for the NHL right away.

in other words, the better way to address the relative weakness at center is via trade, utilizing a broad package of good (but not premium) assets. which means that it'd be prudent to add a winger at #4 given that demidov and sennecke appear to have the highest ceilings of that projected top-10 cohort.

 

[Viqsi]

my point is that they wouldn't have to give up a lindstrom or demidov in a package to get a center.

centers also take longer to make an NHL impact than wingers. none of lindstrom, demidov or sennecke will be ready for the NHL right away.

in other words, the better way to address the relative weakness at center is via trade, utilizing a broad package of good (but not premium) assets. which means that it'd be prudent to add a winger at #4 given that demidov and sennecke appear to have the highest ceilings of that projected top-10 cohort.

I agree with your premise but not with your conclusion. Not that I would object to Demidov or Sennecke, just that I don't think that alone would justify drafting them.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

I agree with your premise but not with your conclusion. Not that I would object to Demidov or Sennecke, just that I don't think that alone would justify drafting them.

my conclusion isn't that they should draft demidov/sennecke with an eye on trading their current wingers, it's that the current organizational depth at wing isn't a valid reason to pass on a winger at #4 overall this year because:

1. wingers tend to have shorter dev curves than centers or defensemen
2. demidov and sennecke both appear to have higher ceilings than all of their current young wingers
3. adding to the organizational depth at wing could lead to the positional imbalance resolving itself later on via trade
4. in a roundabout way, that's actually a more effective tactic to address the center weakness

in other words: yes, center and defense are bigger needs, but that doesn't mean that the optimal way to address that need is by drafting those positions.

 

[Viqsi]

my conclusion isn't that they should draft demidov/sennecke with an eye on trading their current wingers, it's that the current organizational depth at wing isn't a valid reason to pass on a winger at #4 overall this year because:

1. wingers tend to have shorter dev curves than centers or defensemen
2. demidov and sennecke both appear to have higher ceilings than all of their current young wingers
3. adding to the organizational depth at wing could lead to the positional imbalance resolving itself later on via trade
4. in a roundabout way, that's actually a more effective tactic to address the center weakness

in other words: yes, center and defense are bigger needs, but that doesn't mean that the optimal way to address that need is by drafting those positions.

Okay, yeah, that's fair.

 

[Napoli]

Demidov talent wise makes a lot of sense if he's there.

I don't think this franchise is particularly close to competing with the current defense makup but Demidov is a potential superstar if he pans out.

I have no doubt Waddell could move assets to address the weak D and center position eventually.

I also could see trading back and taking Silayev if he's there although that seems unlikely based off recent reports.

Just don't let Montreal draft Demidov, he shouldn't fall that far.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

for anyone still on the demidov fence:

 

[Cowumbus]

1. demidov and sennecke both appear to have higher ceilings than all of their current young wingers

U sure about that..

LDBB scored at a higher rate than Sennecke.

 

[majormajor]

for anyone still on the demidov fence:

I'm far from being on the fence with Demidov, he's my pick, but I have to say this type of analysis that Bader does is useless in cases like this. You're dealing with a small sample of players who were in Demidov's position as a fully developed player stuck in the MHL. That league has also had a lot of changes over the years in terms of the quality of competition.

I was generally impressed by Demidov in the difficult playoff matchups against top MHL opponents (who are at least on the caliber of top CHL teams), but if we're just talking about points - which is what Bader's model is - then we should mention that Demidov also ran up the score against some abjectly weak opponents.

U sure about that..

Maybe it's debatable vs Chinakhov or KJ but I tend to think Sennecke's upside is through the roof.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

U sure about that..

LDBB scored at a higher rate than Sennecke.

i am that high on sennecke, yes.

 

[Cowumbus]

i am that high on sennecke, yes.

Yeah I don’t see it (ceiling) as any higher than KJ. Demidov sure.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Maybe it's debatable vs Chinakhov or KJ but I tend to think Sennecke's upside is through the roof.

the dumbest way i can sum up sennecke is that he's all of CBJ's young forwards rolled into one player. he has marchenko's frame, chinakhov's athleticism, johnson's hands/creativity and sillinger's compete level.

he is a slam dunk top line forward in my book.

but if we're just talking about points - which is what Bader's model is - then we should mention that Demidov also ran up the score against some abjectly weak opponents.

sure, but bader's model (supposedly) accounts for that, and almost every prospect on the first round radar beat up on weaker competition to some degree.

demidov also was outstanding internationally in his D-2 year a couple years ago. he's dominant against his peers and has the tools and traits to translate that to north america.

Yeah I don’t see it (ceiling) as any higher than KJ. Demidov sure.

i'm a big KJ guy.

sennecke's hands and creativity are on par with KJ's, but with more athleticism and a 6'3 frame, plus he's far more engaged in the corners. what's not to like?

 

[Jovavic]

LeClaire, Mason and Dansk are the only ones that come to my mind.

Tarasov was highly touted then got a knee injury during his draft year, causing his stock to drop

 

[Cowumbus]

i'm a big KJ guy.

sennecke's hands and creativity are on par with KJ's, but with more athleticism and a 6'3 frame, plus he's far more engaged in the corners. what's not to like?

I don’t mind him, I am just saying I don’t see the insane upside you do. I would not take him at 4. At 8, sure?

I don’t think scoring at 1.07 P/GP during his DY on one of the best OHL teams is superb or showing elite upside, I’d like to see more separation from guys like Jett Luchanko (late 1st) doing the same thing.

Demidov noticeably > Sennecke IMO.
Michael Dal Colle might have ruined my worldview.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

not that i was overly optimistic we were picking him but the odds seem to be falling by the day

 

[KJ Dangler]

not that i was overly optimistic we were picking him but the odds seem to be falling by the day

We had 3 people down in Fla , including JD

 

[CBJx614]

Something missing from the Demidov/Sennecke debate is that both have scouts wondering if either can potentially transition to center.

If anyone thinks a kid like KJ still has potential down the middle, id argue that Sennecke is actually the most built for it, as long as he can become efficient on the dot, there's 0 reason why he couldn't make the transition elsewhere on the ice with his skill set.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

We had 3 people down in Fla , including JD

I know, that doesn’t mean he met with them though

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Something missing from the Demidov/Sennecke debate is that both have scouts wondering if either can potentially transition to center.

If anyone thinks a kid like KJ still has potential down the middle, id argue that Sennecke is actually the most built for it, as long as he can become efficient on the dot, there's 0 reason why he couldn't make the transition elsewhere on the ice with his skill set.

the reason why I wouldn't try it with sennecke is because he tries to go at defenders one-on-one and that's a style better suited for the wing.

demidov, I could see, but I don't think there's anything wrong with keeping him at wing either.

 

[CBJx614]

Not that it necessarily translates to hockey but still a good reference point

https://x.com/i/web/status/1806024782929912107

 

[majormajor]

Not that it necessarily translates to hockey but still a good reference point

https://x.com/i/web/status/1806024782929912107

It translates.

 

[CBJx614]

It translates.

It's foot speed for sure and it shows his athleticism and potential for top end speed for sure. But it still depends on how he's able to work his edges and get up to that speed on his skates.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

not that i was overly optimistic we were picking him but the odds seem to be falling by the day

I know, that doesn’t mean he met with them though

Idiot