2024 NHL Draft Picks 14, 42, 43, 76, 108, 109, 161, 172, 204 (Draft on 6/28 and 6/29)

[Chainshot]

I’d be very happy with Helenius at 11. Very Smart. High end Compete. Skill. Two way Center. Playing against men. It’s been weird to me that he’s been treated so lukewarm around here.

The hockey writers podcast put him on us in their mock. I only bring it up because I look at the latest argument here about him and then their first quote was “a guy who is going to be making a difference in their middle six in two years”

Had a good laugh at the timing of reading here and listening to that moments later

ONG has been on that guy since December-ish.

 

[Jim Bob]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1805994347751493952

 

[Ace]

ONG has been on that guy since December-ish.

One thing that I would like if it was Helenius, and this is just how my weird brain works in regards to draft theory, is comparing our last three drafts to how the Wings did business.

Helenius is the kind of player they’ve been drafting…but they’ve been doing it, arguably, a little higher than they should have for full draft value imo. Don’t have to be right about that, of course. But they’ve been ahead of us in the draft the last two years and have passed on players I liked more (Savoie over Kasper) or a lot more (Benson over Danielson) to target a player type. This year we might take Helenius…end up with a player on the high end of what they’ve been drafting (IMO) while having benefitted directly from their philosophy the last two years. Only this year it doesn’t feel like we’d be making a pick that leaves something better on the board so much as…hey this is a big tier and where this player is slotted around. That last point is more about 2023 than 2022. I really would never have taken Danielson over Benson in a million years.


maybe Catton falls to them and we just reverse what happened in 2022 lol

 

[Irie]

That pick would be so dumb. Helenius could be our 3C in two years. Would Dickinson really have a shot at playing top 4 for the sabres in the coming 4 years?
I want players that can make a difference during our potential window.

Dickinson would instantly be the most valuable asset within the organization that is not currently on the roster. If you draft him at 11, he will have more trade value on Saturday than the 11th OA pick had on Thursday.

I think Adams has to take him if he falls to 11. Once drafted, he would be an outstanding trade chip at the very least, there would be a lot of options moving forward.

 

[Jim Bob]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1806040993797402825

https://x.com/i/web/status/1806040111500406859

 

[ValJamesDuex]

Buffalo Sabres Draft Guide: 3rd Round Selection (Pick 76) and Florida's Pick Selections

Today we look at some options for the Buffalo Sabres in the third round of the 2024 NHL Draft and some fifth round options as well.

www.expectedbuffalo.com

Buffalo Sabres Draft Guide: 4th Round Selection Part 1 (pick 109)

Our 2024 NHL Draft coverage continues by looking at options for the Buffalo Sabres to consider in the fourth round.

www.expectedbuffalo.com

Buffalo Sabres Draft Guide: Round 4 Selections Part 2 (Pick 108)

Part two of our look at prospects that could be available for the Buffalo Sabres in the fourth round of the 2024 NHL Draft.

www.expectedbuffalo.com

Buffalo Sabres Draft Guide: 6th Round Selection (Pick 172)

The 2024 NHL Draft content keeps rolling with some prospects that the Sabres could consider taking at pick 172 in the sixth round.

www.expectedbuffalo.com

Buffalo Sabres Draft Guide: 7th Round (Pick 204) Players

The 2024 NHL Draft is a week from today and we start to get into the details today by looking at options the Sabres could have in the seventh round.

www.expectedbuffalo.com

 

[HOOats]

Dickinson would instantly be the most valuable asset within the organization that is not currently on the roster. If you draft him at 11, he will have more trade value on Saturday than the 11th OA pick had on Thursday.

Can you explain the logic behind the bolded? It goes against the much-discussed conventional wisdom that a pick loses value when it's made.

Is it that teams picking 12-32 never thought he'd be there at 1.11, so they'd value him like a trade up to 1.8 or so? Yet if ten teams pass on him, doesn't that hint at his value?

I'm pretty against taking him or any D for what it's worth.

 

[My Cozen Dylan]

Helenius isn't going to be a 3C in two years. MAYBE I could see 3. Maybe. I think he's more on the Ostlund curve than anything -- 2 years overseas and then a year or two in Rochester.

Yes, Dickinson would be BPA at 11. And yes, he'd have a legit shot at playing in the top 4. Of the higher picks, he's probably the best one at actually playing defense. Which is something we lack.

My guy in 2022 was Savoie, and my guy in 2023 was Benson. I'm 2/2.

My guy this year is Dickinson.

Also, coincidentally, they each ranked 6th on my final list.

Though I suspect he's much less likely to get to us than the other two were.

 

[Ace]

My guy in 2022 was Savoie, and my guy in 2023 was Benson. I'm 2/2.

My guy this year is Dickinson.

Also, coincidentally, they each ranked 6th on my final list.

Though I suspect he's much less likely to get to us than the other two were.

You need to find a way for six forwards to go top ten in a draft most suspect will have five D instead.

Celebrini, Demidov and Lindstrom are locks. Iginla and Sennecke are good chances. But you need to buck the trend of Catton falling due to size of someone really overlooking Eiserman’s warts to make it happen. Can’t see anyone else cracking the top 10. Most likely scenario to me is a top ten that is five D and those first 5 forwards.

But it just takes one

Or…I guess it’s possible Yakemchuk goes ahead of him solely based on handedness. Teams be weird

 

[My Cozen Dylan]

You need to find a way for six forwards to go top ten in a draft most suspect will have five D instead.

Celebrini, Demidov and Lindstrom are locks. Iginla and Sennecke are good chances. But you need to buck the trend of Catton falling due to size of someone really overlooking Eiserman’s warts to make it happen. Can’t see anyone else cracking the top 10. Most likely scenario to me is a top ten that is five D and those first 5 forwards.

But it just takes one

I could see a team like Ottawa taking a chance on Parekh being the next EK and have him over Dickinson.

For example:

1. SJ - Macklin Celebrini
2. CHI - Ivan Demidov
3. ANA - Artyom Levshunov
4. CBJ - Cayden Lindstrom
5. MTL - Anton Silayev
6. UTA - Zeev Buium
7. OTT - Zayne Parekh
8. SEA - Beckett Sennecke
9. CGY - Tij Iginla
10. NJ - Konsta Helenius

That's quite plausible and gives us a choice of Dickinson or Catton.

 

[Samsonite23]

Don’t we usually have a prediction poll? I think it’ll be Sennecke this year.

 

[Irie]

Can you explain the logic behind the bolded? It goes against the much-discussed conventional wisdom that a pick loses value when it's made.

Is it that teams picking 12-32 never thought he'd be there at 1.11, so they'd value him like a trade up to 1.8 or so? Yet if ten teams pass on him, doesn't that hint at his value?

I'm pretty against taking him or any D for what it's worth.

Sure thing.

Picks outside of the top 5 tend to have an intangible value before they are made based on the slim chance that the pick may net a team a star player, a Zetterberg/Alfredsson/Hull scenario, but once they are picked, that intangible value dissipates until they start to really break out as they develop.

As drafts get closer to their actual date, the mystery of what a pick in the 11th range may net a team becomes a whole lot clearer. 2024 11th is now a fairly tangible thing. It's likely a Catton or a Helenius or a Sennecke or a Yakemchuck... there is a range of players in that tier that are expected to be there, so you have much better understanding of what you are getting vs a 2025 1st.

Dickinson, a large, smooth skating D with a high floor and balanced game that is not years away from being NHL ready likely holds more value than the 11th overall pick to the majority of GMs(He's a consensus top ten pick). If a GM knew they could draft Dickinson with the 11th overall pick, there would be some strong offers for the pick before the draft.

Large Defensive prospects with top-pairing potential are not traded that often. Small forwards are like new cars, the moment you draft them (drive them off the lot), they depreciate greatly. Large D will keep appreciating until their development stagnates.

 

[Fjordy]

A serious question: in what way is Sennecke better than MBN and Chernyshov?

 

[Jim Bob]

Final Mock 2024 NHL Draft: Intrigue after 1st 3 picks | NHL.com

Blue Jackets selection at No. 4 unclear after Celebrini, Levshunov, Silayev go off board

www.nhl.com

11. Buffalo Sabres​

Kimelman -- Carter Yakemchuk, D, Calgary (WHL): Yakemchuk led WHL defensemen with 30 goals this season and his poise with the puck and skating allow him to find holes to create plays in the offensive zone. And at 6-3, 202 pounds, the 18-year-old right-handed shot has NHL-ready size. The Sabres have done well finding young forward prospects that could be future building blocks; adding Yakemchuk would give them a big one on the back end who eventually could play alongside an already solid defense corps of Owen Power, Rasmus Dahlin and Bowen Byram.

Morreale -- Berkly Catton C, Spokane (WHL): Catton (5-10, 175) plays a hard-driving game, is relentless in puck pursuit and has a compete level too good to ignore. Catton was fourth in the WHL with 116 points (54 goals, 62 assists) in 68 games; he's the third NHL draft-eligible WHL player since 2000 with at least 115 points in a season, joining Bedard (143 points in 2022-23) and Nic Petan (120 in 2012-13). Catton also won 53.4 percent of his face-offs, led the WHL with seven short-handed goals and was third for Spokane with 30 power-play points (13 goals, 17 assists).

 

[ValJamesDuex]

Don’t we usually have a prediction poll? I think it’ll be Sennecke this year.

Who WILL the Sabres Draft at #11 on Friday?

Someone suggested a poll, so here it is. This is to pick who you think the Sabres will draft, and not who you want them to draft. I only put players that should be reasonably available at the Sabres pick. If you don't think they'll be available for the Sabres, don't pick them.

forums.hfboards.com

 

[Jim Bob]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1806163466652135932

Scouts Survey: The biggest questions before the 2024 NHL Draft

As the 2024 NHL Draft approaches, we surveyed scouts who have kept a close eye on their regions this season.

nhlentrydraft.com

 

[HOOats]

Sure thing.

Picks outside of the top 5 tend to have an intangible value before they are made based on the slim chance that the pick may net a team a star player, a Zetterberg/Alfredsson/Hull scenario, but once they are picked, that intangible value dissipates until they start to really break out as they develop.

As drafts get closer to their actual date, the mystery of what a pick in the 11th range may net a team becomes a whole lot clearer. 2024 11th is now a fairly tangible thing. It's likely a Catton or a Helenius or a Sennecke or a Yakemchuck... there is a range of players in that tier that are expected to be there, so you have much better understanding of what you are getting vs a 2025 1st.

Dickinson, a large, smooth skating D with a high floor and balanced game that is not years away from being NHL ready likely holds more value than the 11th overall pick to the majority of GMs(He's a consensus top ten pick). If a GM knew they could draft Dickinson with the 11th overall pick, there would be some strong offers for the pick before the draft.

Large Defensive prospects with top-pairing potential are not traded that often. Small forwards are like new cars, the moment you draft them (drive them off the lot), they depreciate greatly. Large D will keep appreciating until their development stagnates.

Right, figured it was as simple as such.

I do think 1/3 of the league passing on him would throw a wrench in the theory of Dickinson as some kind of NHL savings bond that can only steadily appreciate in value.

It's the opposite of Benson, who slipped as a small guy at a devalued position. If every GM craves large D pause then someone should grab him before us. If he slips, it's because he's regarded as lacking standout traits expected in a top D 10. Safe LHD should be more in the 15-30 range for me.

If GMs subscribe to your theory and he's still on the board at 11, I'd rather trade back 4-7 spots instead of drafting and waiting to use him as an asset.

 

[Chainshot]

A serious question: in what way is Sennecke better than MBN and Chernyshov?

Hands wise I would give it to Sennecke easily. MBN has an edge in physical play over Chernyshov.

 

[Old Navy Goat]

A serious question: in what way is Sennecke better than MBN and Chernyshov?

Pure upside. The kid grew and was adjusting to his body before exploding the 2nd half of the year and playoffs.

 

[Fjordy]

Hands wise I would give it to Sennecke easily. MBN has an edge in physical play over Chernyshov.

Pure upside. The kid grew and was adjusting to his body before exploding the 2nd half of the year and playoffs.

I just read that MBN and especially Chernyshov are better in defense. But overall they can also become good top 6 players.

 

[Old Navy Goat]

I just read that MBN and especially Chernyshov are better in defense. But overall they can also become good top 6 players.

It's all about projection. Sennecke grew 4 inches this year so is still growing into his body. His hands and skill made him a top pick at 5'9, now he's 6'2 with the same skill so you wonder how much better he'll get

 

[Jim Bob]

The art and evolution of NHL scouting: How they do it and why it's so difficult

Scouts need to be patient and phlegmatic to survive because whatever happens, they don't get a final answer for years to come.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Jim Bob]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1806345120880771549

 

[Chainshot]

I just read that MBN and especially Chernyshov are better in defense. But overall they can also become good top 6 players.

Defense can be taught.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Defense can be taught.

Tell that to Nail Yakupov