GDT: 2024 NHL Draft (June 28 - June 29, Las Vegas Sphere)

[ArmadilloThumb]

That is the first tape I've seen on Solberg. Snarl, Hockey IQ, compete, good size... if he is coachable he could be the best player for us. Having those attributes helps create space for other players and helps take opposition attention away from our other players whenever he is on the ice.

Unless we get an elete forward falling to us he could be a great overall puzzle piece. And remember how big a part Orpik played in 2018. He could be similar or better...

 

[Strawberry Fields]

Too many low impact safe floor guys being coveted around here at 17. That's is absolutely not what we need. I'd rather swing for the fences (knowing we might miss) and end up with a potential star given the current state of the franchise and the existing prospects in our system. You can develop solid third and fourth liners with later picks if you exhibit patience. They're also a heck of a lot easier to collect at reasonable prices on the UFA market with plenty of years left in their careers. What isn't easy to get in the UFA market are early/mid 20 guys with talent to play in the top half of the lineup for a decade.

From a fan of another talent starved team in Philly... I wouldn't touch a guy like this with a 10 foot pole in the top 20. Our board would riot

 

[twabby]

I think it would be a mistake to unconditionally target offensive upside (certainly to the extent of being naive about downside). It's cartoonish. Not to say they should draft a Nic Dowd at 17 but they do need highly competitive players that can be trusted in any situation. While they've added various younger players recently none rise to the level of being true all-situations tonesetters. The closest thing this team has for that is John Carlson, a 34 year-old workhorse that was used so much it negatively impacted his offense (and theirs overall). Even he has a limited ceiling in truly setting the tone. Otherwise they hope Leonard develops into that but it's not as though all they're missing is a headliner or two. They could stand to upgrade in a lot of different areas that maybe aren't as glaring but nonetheless would put them on firmer ground to at least be a stronger possession team and harder to play against. It's not just skill level that determines that.

While I'm on the record of favoring a slight trade up for Catton or Eiserman if possible some of the takes on secondary options are steaming. Some seem to read certain attributes, glaze over, tune out and pigeonhole the player based off of it. That was certainly present last year re: Leonard. So I, and I think most, should be open to a more comprehensive sense of what makes a player valuable. Come playoff time teams need Hockey Players whose competitiveness sets the tone all over the ice. It's great to get that in a skilled player at the top of the lineup but we certainly see it's not sheer skill level making the difference most of the time. The Caps don't even really have that basic competitiveness tonesetter, as exhibited in the NYR series, and certainly shouldn't expect that Leonard alone will be sufficient.

Seems more like a Ristolainen or Trouba to me, based on the production so far and highlights from EP. Those guys are funny to have on your team because of snarl and hitz, but if they are playing above the third pair are they really helping?

I'd hope they'd be looking for someone a bit more impactful than that at #17.

 

[Langway]

Seems more like a Ristolainen or Trouba to me, based on the production so far and highlights from EP. Those guys are funny to have on your team because of snarl and hitz, but if they are playing above the third pair are they really helping?

I'd hope they'd be looking for someone a bit more impactful than that at #17.

If they pick Solberg it's because they believe there's substantially more upside and substantially better hockey IQ compared to those two particular players. Think Seider or Ekholm. The other background component in a Solberg pick is that I don't believe Iorio or Chesley are developing as hoped. At this stage it seems unlikely either will be as good as Fehervary, for instance. They could opt for another defender like Jiricek (for similar reasons as the Lapierre pick) but there's not vast offensive upside there either and a less impressive skill set to build on IMO. Still, the blueline going forward is lean re: top 4 upside and they probably ought to opt for more steadying presences than the opposite (most glaringly this year in Hutson).

A lot of this is just basic boxcar-influenced thinking it seems, which is fine. Solberg doesn't have them so much as a current dynamic calling card. Boxcars are sexy. But not everyone is fully formed in their draft-year and plenty of stellar DY producers do sport substantial projectability concerns. Like I said, I'd resist jumping to cartoonish conclusions of a player's style and go right to the dumbest comparables. These are very much works in progress. Of course, that can also hold for less physically mature players eventually becoming more physically assertive and competitive players. I wouldn't necessarily assume that, though, since it's also something of a mentality question and also some are just more naturally better able to add mass and play heavier.

A basic boxcar approach probably says pick either Hage or, failing that, Greentree/Connelly if no one slides and they can't move up. Hage in particular I'd be just fine with. Plenty of skilled upside there. But if it's more of a finesse winger I'm not sure that's really such an impactful addition either. Are those the sorts of home run picks that are preferred? Shrug. I just wouldn't count on that type of winger being the sort of player that truly impacts them all that substantially.

 

[usiel]

I do get concerned about recency bias when it comes to drafting NHL prospects.

I will admit its a ritual that I have for my own self every year on this bias.

 

[Langway]

I definitely get not overweighing. It's still about picking the player believed to be the best a solid five years from now. But circumstances evolve. A year ago Iginla wasn't thought of as a first rounder really. Lindstrom was just a raw big pivot. Silayev came out of nowhere early on basically. Eiserman was going to challenge Celebrini, etc.

Sennecke has done enough late to where he's into the top tier. I'm not 100% sure Solberg has but it's at least conceivable. Bob's list and some of Pronman's final intel will tell the tale. Pronman has been on Solberg's rise for a while now and it does seem to have industry backing. Mo Seider was one of those guys back in 2019. To this point another Wings pick in Kasper could be a counter-example....but I think he's still on track to be a solid middle sixer with plus competitiveness (as was displayed in the WCs late in his draft year). I try to avoid projecting and assuming gaps get filled in so I definitely do tend to value those that are more naturally able to play a more efficient, mature all-around game. More of a pro style is a definite advantage for a player to have. Leonard's a great example.

Overall I think the main issue when shooting for pure offensive upside is that if a prospect doesn't currently have the off puck work ethic I'm not sure it's going to be as impactful as the Caps will need it to be. That even goes for a Catton or Eiserman really, although I'd give them the patience to branch out in time and become a factor in those areas. But for a lesser talent that's more limited in either frame or athleticism it's less convincing to believe without question that they're a more sound upside play.

 

[bacchist]

Too many low impact safe floor guys being coveted around here at 17. That's is absolutely not what we need. I'd rather swing for the fences (knowing we might miss) and end up with a potential star given the current state of the franchise and the existing prospects in our system. You can develop solid third and fourth liners with later picks if you exhibit patience. They're also a heck of a lot easier to collect at reasonable prices on the UFA market with plenty of years left in their careers. What isn't easy to get in the UFA market are early/mid 20 guys with talent to play in the top half of the lineup for a decade.

My philosophy on this would be entirely different. In my opinion, picking players that have a high floor is more likely to result in a strong and balanced team that is the foundation you need to let every player reach their potential. If you try to swing for the fences before you have a supporting cast in place, you're far more likely to end up with guys that are overflowing with skill but can't seem to excel at the NHL level. But if you have a team full of "high floor" guys, you can expect a few of them to actually spend more time at their ceiling.

I'd rather take Michael Brandsegg-Nygard than Cole Eiserman, for example. Eiserman has a great shot and he could very well score a lot of goals in his career if things go right for him. Or he could struggle at the next level and we'd be right back where we started. But MBN will almost certainly make any team he plays on better, and contribute more to his team winning games than Eiserman will.

 

[Holtbyisms]

My philosophy on this would be entirely different. In my opinion, picking players that have a high floor is more likely to result in a strong and balanced team that is the foundation you need to let every player reach their potential. If you try to swing for the fences before you have a supporting cast in place, you're far more likely to end up with guys that are overflowing with skill but can't seem to excel at the NHL level. But if you have a team full of "high floor" guys, you can expect a few of them to actually spend more time at their ceiling.

I'd rather take Michael Brandsegg-Nygard than Cole Eiserman, for example. Eiserman has a great shot and he could very well score a lot of goals in his career if things go right for him. Or he could struggle at the next level and we'd be right back where we started. But MBN will almost certainly make any team he plays on better, and contribute more to his team winning games than Eiserman will.

I definitely feel different on the team building front. I think you build a team with talent and plug all your holes with affordable UFAs as you go. Ideally those guys you sign to plug the holes teach the star players the right way to play the game and turn them into future leaders. I mean that's pretty much how GMGM built the dynasty we were lucky enough to watch tear up the NHL for a decade+. Unfortunately we only got one cup out of it but that's more than a lot of other teams can say.

 

[Langway]

5v5 I think MBN may initially have an advantage over Eiserman. But to what extent is Eiserman a finished product? How much will he learn at BU when it comes to not just defensive play but generally simplifying his game? The other crucial component when it comes to more suspect wingers is that it's easier to finesse limitations with high-end center play. The Caps not really having that makes it much more suspect to believe spamming one-dimensional winger picks is a viable strategy. It's difficult to view things in isolation, even if things could change quite a bit in 2-3 years. Big picture I wouldn't count on center play becoming significantly more solid unless they add someone established externally. Not that Lapierre & CMM are awful but it's a high bar kicking up from regular NHLer to legit above average two-way top six center. They're going with more of a committee approach and we'll see if that's hard enough to play against. That they were able to scrap their way into the playoffs builds some hope but...we'll see.

In Eiserman's case I'd still take the risks. If the Caps become as bad as we tend to think they may in a couple years that's more likely the time to net a more crucial foundational stabilizing piece in the draft. But if Eiserman, MBN and Hage are all gone I definitely see the logic in opting for a Solberg type defensive stabilizer over a winger they may have hesitation about. Trustworthiness is an underrated quality in a player and, again, it's hard to say on a fundamental level how far a more one-dimensional skilled winger can take a team. Exceptional ones can lead the way but it's hard to say if Connelly or Greentree have it in them as future dynamic 80+ point top-liners. It's a very high bar going from conceivably having the necessary skill set to putting it all together and rounding out in crucial ways. It's why drafting predominantly for upside can set teams up for disappointment if they're not careful. If they don't fully realize what they conceivably could be, do they have the necessary mindset to round out their all-around game to maximize their utility?

The draft is an inexact science and that's what makes following it so interesting. For me getting a late steady dose of playoff hockey in the run-up to the draft I tend to naturally elevate Little Monsters that capably blend competitiveness and upside along with an old school pro mentality. I do think leadership capacity is at least an important secondary component in distinguishing between close calls. As the Caps enter into a transitional stage they probably can't afford to be so desperate for talent that they ignore intangibles or ignore downsides along the way. They also probably can't hope to just get those qualities easily from essentially castoffs. It needs to be a primary concern and valued as such.

 

[bacchist]

I definitely feel different on the team building front. I think you build a team with talent and plug all your holes with affordable UFAs as you go. Ideally those guys you sign to plug the holes teach the star players the right way to play the game and turn them into future leaders. I mean that's pretty much how GMGM built the dynasty we were lucky enough to watch tear up the NHL for a decade+. Unfortunately we only got one cup out of it but that's more than a lot of other teams can say.

Nobody would disagree with "build a team with talent". I'm saying I'd prefer a well balanced player over somebody who is great in one area, but average at best in other areas of the game.

Was GMGM known for drafting players that were deemed to have a high ceiling over ones that have a high floor? I'm not trying to make a point with that. I'd genuinely like to know more about his draft philosophy on that.

 

[bacchist]

Just saw this...

https://thehockeynews.com/news/ferraris-2024-nhl-draft-rankings-the-final-cut

He has MBN at #6. Highest I've seen, and a bit higher than I expect him to go. But I don't think it's totally unreasonable.

If he was somehow available when we pick, I'd be thrilled.

 

[Kalopsia]

Some additional context on Solberg's boxcars relative to his league.

• 15 points is the second most by a U19 defender in the top Norwegian league since 2000 (as far as I felt like looking back)
• 5 goals is tied for the most by a U19 defender
• 9 points in 17 playoff games as his team made it to the finals is the most by a U19 defender and second most among U19s overall
• 42 games played is 17 more than any other U19 defender this year (the Norwegian league plays a 45 game season and in any given year there's usually 0-1 U19 defender who plays in 40+ games)

My takeaway is that he's playing in a men's league where young defenders struggle to get playing time and produce offensively, and his point totals are actually pretty impressive.

The discourse around Solberg reminds me of Dalibor Dvorsky last year. Like Solberg he had a standout performance in the international tournaments on a smaller national team, but detractors wrote it off as him standing out against a bad supporting cast and pointed to his low point totals in a lesser Scandanavian league (in his case, 14 points in 38 games in the Allsvenskan) to say his offensive skill was questionable. Well Dvorsky had a rough start in the SHL this year where he wasn't being given plating time, but then switched on the fly to the OHL and was immediately productive, ending up with 45-43-88 in 52 games. The offensive skill looks legit, and the toughness and play away from the puck that he had to develop to play in a men's league should make it easier for him to adjust to the NHL when he gets there.

 

[Langway]

Blues 2024 NHL Draft roundtable: GM Doug Armstrong discusses D depth, moving up and more

In addition to the NHL Draft, Armstrong addressed Pavel Buchnevich's contract negotiations, buyouts and pending UFAs.

www.nytimes.com

Good look at the Blues picking at 16. Seems like they may be interested in moving up, presumably for a defenseman. Have to wonder if Solberg doesn't benefit from a D run and someone steps considering him the best of the rest. Could see that as early as 13/14.

Could be there's a better chance Eiserman somehow makes it to 17 than Solberg. Previously I've figured someone will trade up for Eiserman but increasingly I'm not sure how hot a commodity a pure sniper is in this day and age of such strict systems focus. Coaches don't make picks but his IQ/maturity seems to almost overshadow the things he's good at. Will be really interesting where he falls on Bob's list next Monday.

 

[Marshall]

I think I'm a Hage guy now.

 

[Langway]

Certainly any time you can add a silky scoring center it's intriguing. I also wonder with Hage if a team loses out on Catton could that push him up? Among centers after Hage there's Luchanko, Surin and Boisvert. There's likely a sizable gap when it comes to perceived offensive upside. If the Caps were to pass I really doubt he makes it out of the top 20.

I think I might prefer the Norwegians to Hage largely due to physical competitiveness but I think he would immediately have the highest upside of all of their younger centers. It's just up to him to realize it by playing a more mature, structured, balanced, competitive game at center ice.

 

[Cush]

2024 NHL Draft Guide - The Hockey Writers NHL Entry Draft Latest News, Analysis & More

The Hockey Writers is your go-to source for the 2024 NHL Draft featuring: detailed prospect profiles, mock drafts, rankings and more.

thehockeywriters.com

 

[usiel]

McKeens 2024 draft guide is out. Under 20 bucks and well worth the purchase.

 

[Langway]

NHL Mock Draft: Corey Pronman picks all seven rounds

Corey Pronman projects every pick in the 2024 NHL Draft.

www.nytimes.com

17. Washington Capitals: Jett Luchanko, C, Guelph (OHL) Luchanko is well liked in the league, and I think as it stands now there’s a better than 50 percent chance that he’s going to go in thetop 20. Ideally Washington would add Solberg or Jiricek here after picking a lot of forwards high, but they could use center depth as well so I could see Luchanko or Hage as their pick.

Luchanko over both MBN and Eiserman. While Luchanko is one of the younger players in the draft, so is Eiserman. Pronman believes Eiserman will go 15-25 so definitely a chance he's on the board for the Caps. As for Luchanko he may have a bit more two-way grit as a center compared to what they have developing but he nonetheless seems kind of same-y. Not overly dynamic nor overly big. A more modest projection puts him at 3C probably and while that can be valuable it seems like a stretch over those two wingers.

They take the goalie Yegorov in the second over the likes of Mustard, Basha, Stiga and Freij. Overall for having five top 90 picks it seems like a light haul. A lot would ride on Yegorov really panning out. That Solberg & Jiricek both go ahead of them and they still don't take one of the higher-end forwards seems like a missed opportunity regardless of their recent frequency of picking wingers high.

 

[pman25]

I’m seeing Stiga get a lot of love as a late first, maybe a dark horse top 20 pick. I really like him and want him. Value might be weird at 17 but I’m not opposed

 

[Holtbyisms]

Here's the full draft for us from the athletic. Love the second round pick. Great bang for the buck. Hate passing on Eiserman but not a terrible pick. Feels a little too USHL heavy for the likes of Mahoney and BMac to me though.

Washington Capitals
17. Jett Luchanko, C, Guelph (OHL)
52. Mikhail Yegorov, G, Omaha (USHL)
82. Luke Mistelbacher, RW, Swift Current (WHL)
83. Harrison Brunicke, D, Kamloops (WHL)
90. Elliott Groenewold, D, Cedar Rapids (USHL)
114. Sebastian Soini, D, Ilves Jr. (FINLAND-JR.)
146. Kaden Shahan, RW, Sioux City (USHL)
178. Tory Pitner, D, Youngstown (USHL)

 

[kicksavedave]

Washington Capitals
.....
90. Elliott Groenewold, D, Cedar Rapids (USHL)
114. Sebastian Soini, D, Ilves Jr. (FINLAND-JR.)
146. Kaden Shahan, RW, Sioux City (USHL)
178. Tory Pitner, D, Youngstown (USHL)

A Finn????

 

[Cush]

Craig’s List: Tij Iginla, Cole Eiserman rise in final ranking | TSN

The rise of Kelowna Rockets star Tij Iginla this season has been remarkable in the eyes of TSN Director of Scouting Craig Button.

www.tsn.ca

 

[ArmadilloThumb]

I'm not much of a Buttons fan, but it's interesting to see his final list... if it were the Draft, it would give the Caps choice of pretty much the most talked about names for potential Cap picks, all grouped together starting at 17:

Craig’s List: Tij Iginla, Cole Eiserman rise in final ranking | TSN

The rise of Kelowna Rockets star Tij Iginla this season has been remarkable in the eyes of TSN Director of Scouting Craig Button.

www.tsn.ca

 

[Marshall]

The Hockey PDOcast just released their mock draft covering picks 1 - 15.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Wonder if their draft strategy changes up now. Have to imagine center may be devalued for them a bit.