GDT: 2024 NHL Draft (June 28 - June 29, Las Vegas Sphere)

[Langway]

NHL Mock Draft 2.0: Celebrini, Levshunov lead Pronman's latest projection

Corey Pronman makes his second attempt at projecting the first round of the 2024 NHL Draft.

www.nytimes.com

Sennecke over Iginla and Yakemchuk a better than 50/50 chance of going top 10 among the highlights. The Caps add Eiserman (twice now in Pronman mocks) with Solberg going a pick earlier to STL. If Parekh really does slide to 13 the Caps ought to look into moving up.

 

[pman25]

I wonder where Lindstrom goes. Seems like the combine actually matters for him. Could be top 3 or somewhere around 10 if teams opt for all the D picks and say Sennecke or Iginla above him.

Could be a Vilardi like drop if teams don’t trust the back

 

[kicksavedave]

I wonder where Lindstrom goes. Seems like the combine actually matters for him. Could be top 3 or somewhere around 10 if teams opt for all the D picks and say Sennecke or Iginla above him.

Could be a Vilardi like drop if teams don’t trust the back

Caps love to take the chance on a guy who drops over injury concern.

 

[pman25]

Caps love to take the chance on a guy who drops over injury concern.

I’d say even if he does drop he’s firmly top 10 so out of reach for us likely but never say never!

 

[pman25]

Interesting here for Letourneau, the 6’7” center. Going to BC now in the fall. Sounds like this kid needs a long development path but assume someone at the end of the first will take the chance.

BC is still pretty loaded with Leonard, Perreault, Hagens, Stiga, and now Letourneau

 

[Rayquaza64]

Interesting here for Letourneau, the 6’7” center. Going to BC now in the fall. Sounds like this kid needs a long development path but assume someone at the end of the first will take the chance.

BC is still pretty loaded with Leonard, Perreault, Hagens, Stiga, and now Letourneau

well, those first two might be TBD but still, BC isn't going anywhere

 

[Langway]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1799405910206607773

It's puke in a bucket day at the combine. MBN is thicc. Jiricek isn't testing.

NHL Link • Loading...

link.nhl.com

 

[wickedwitch]

Objectively, it's not a bad thing, but it's super frustrating as a fan that the Caps have absolutely no coverage at the combine. We have no clue who they're talking to.

 

[Langway]

MSN

We know they talked to Hage at least. Definitely a non-event in terms of team coverage...and probably will stay that way until they're fully rebuilding and picking super high (higher than last year's 8th pick anyway).

Hage along with the two Norwegians and maybe Emery I think is the basic short list at 17 outside of a slider. Emery predictably crushed the combine. 17 is a bit early for me but I'd wager he'll go somewhere in the following five picks at worst.

 

[Ridley Simon]

MSN

We know they talked to Hage at least. Definitely a non-event in terms of team coverage...and probably will stay that way until they're fully rebuilding and picking super high (higher than last year's 8th pick anyway).

Hage along with the two Norwegians and maybe Emery I think is the basic short list at 17 outside of a slider. Emery predictably crushed the combine. 17 is a bit early for me but I'd wager he'll go somewhere in the following five picks at worst.

Ok. So where is this team going? Who is the pick?

 

[Langway]

It all depends on how the board falls. For a while I've thought they should move up a few spots so as not to miss out on the top tier but I'm not sure it's essential. Is Eiserman that Must Have talent that slides into a range where they're able to move up? That's probably the most realistic play as it seems increasingly unlikely Eiserman goes top 10. May not even go top 12-13. In any given year it's hard to find that much sniping swagger available in that range. Not a foundational all-around player probably but still one with potentially scarce talent.

But a floor of one of MBN/Solberg/Hage is fine so moving up isn't a must. They could also go Jiricek ala past injury-riddled upside plays but I don't think it's necessary. One of that trio would be solid value and sure seem to be the best of the rest.

 

[Ridley Simon]

It all depends on how the board falls. For a while I've thought they should move up a few spots so as not to miss out on the top tier but I'm not sure it's essential. Is Eiserman that Must Have talent that slides into a range where they're able to move up? That's probably the most realistic play as it seems increasingly unlikely Eiserman goes top 10. May not even go top 12-13. In any given year it's hard to find that much sniping swagger available in that range. Not a foundational all-around player probably but still one with potentially scarce talent.

But a floor of one of MBN/Solberg/Hage is fine so moving up isn't a must. They could also go Jiricek ala past injury-riddled upside plays but I don't think it's necessary. One of that trio would be solid value and sure seem to be the best of the rest.

Appreciate this.

And lastly — who do you want, assuming picking at 17?

 

[Langway]

Any of that trio is good by me. I don't really expect MBN to be on the board. There is a fair bit of overlap between him, Leonard and Miro...but industrious wingers that can finish and are versatile are solid targets. He's probably a better prospect all-around than Miro. Solberg would be a really intriguing upside play, as his grit and raw potential offer a lot to start with. Then Hage could be a really skilled right shot center. There's some question whether he'll stick at C but going to Michigan they should be able to get his details in order.

They could certainly go off the board but those three definitely stand out most after the top 14 chunk.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1799405910206607773

It's puke in a bucket day at the combine. MBN is thicc. Jiricek isn't testing.

NHL Link • Loading...

link.nhl.com

Some people dont understand how much water we sweat out in a full hockey game.

 

[Langway]

Mock 2024 NHL Draft: Opinions vary after Celebrini, Levshunov taken with 1st 2 picks | NHL.com

2nd set of NHL.com predictions debate opening round coming off Scouting Combine

www.nhl.com

17. Washington Capitals
Kimelman -- Cole Eiserman: He has the best shot in the draft, scoring 58 goals in 57 games this season, and his 127 goals are the most by any player in NTDP history. But is he just a sensational shot? Scouts seem to be torn on that issue. Some believe he can become more of a threat as a playmaker and be more reliable defensively. He'll spend at least one season at Boston University trying to expand his game. If he can, Eiserman has the chance to be one of the top players in the draft class.

Morreale -- Michael Hage: He is considered a two-way player with a lot of creativity. Hage led Chicago in scoring during the regular season and had four points (two goals, two assists) in two USHL playoff games. It was a big return for Hage, who played 13 games last season after missing six months recovering from a shoulder injury sustained on his first day of training camp. He's the type of player that drives a team into position when they need it, generating chances.

 

[Langway]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1800209886636335149

Mr. Numbers has seemingly tamed his list via consensus weighing. Weak sauce. How high would he have Hutson or Mews otherwise? Pretty tame. Catton should be higher based on his rare production. Neither of the Norwegians make the first round cut. Not like there's historical precedent for it to happen but that's history for you.

Parekh & Buium as the first two D won't happen...but probably should. I'd like to see what the model says without such weighing. Outside of Poirier in the first there's not too much that would raise a brow.

 

[twabby]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1800209886636335149

Mr. Numbers has seemingly tamed his list via consensus weighing. Weak sauce. How high would he have Hutson or Mews otherwise? Pretty tame. Catton should be higher based on his rare production. Neither of the Norwegians make the first round cut. Not like there's historical precedent for it to happen but that's history for you.

Parekh & Buium as the first two D won't happen...but probably should. I'd like to see what the model says without such weighing. Outside of Poirier in the first there's not too much that would raise a brow.

I have a subscription and can post just the numbers rankings without weighing consensus a little bit later.

Edit: in the next post below, ranked by star probability

 

[twabby]

 

[twabby]

I get the caveats about Eiserman's production that have been described earlier in the thread, but if he falls to Washington I really hope they nab him. He could be a steal.

 

[Langway]

Hard to believe the Caps would pass on Eiserman. It seems increasingly unlikely he goes top 10 but sliding to 17 seems too far. It only takes one alternative each pick for a slide to continue but you'd figure someone will eventually move up for him. I really wonder how he interviewed. Maybe not the most mature prospect...or at least not the most scripted...but I don't think there's anything wrong with that. He'll learn...or he won't.

Was star probability always HP's primary ranking criteria? I figured it was more complicated. That leaves me confused on Mews since public rankings aren't what's fueling it either. Mac Swanson is definitely someone I'd expect the model to love and over-inflate into the first round.

 

[usiel]

Hard to believe the Caps would pass on Eiserman. It seems increasingly unlikely he goes top 10 but sliding to 17 seems too far. It only takes one alternative each pick for a slide to continue but you'd figure someone will eventually move up for him. I really wonder how he interviewed. Maybe not the most mature prospect...or at least not the most scripted...but I don't think there's anything wrong with that. He'll learn...or he won't.

Was star probability always HP's primary ranking criteria? I figured it was more complicated. That leaves me confused on Mews since public rankings aren't what's fueling it either. Mac Swanson is definitely someone I'd expect the model to love and over-inflate into the first round.

Might be kind a wild draft once it starts to hit a bit after the first 10.

 

[Hivemind]

Eiserman is the type of guy I would consider trading up for if he falls.

 

[bacchist]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1800209886636335149

Mr. Numbers has seemingly tamed his list via consensus weighing. Weak sauce. How high would he have Hutson or Mews otherwise? Pretty tame. Catton should be higher based on his rare production. Neither of the Norwegians make the first round cut. Not like there's historical precedent for it to happen but that's history for you.

Parekh & Buium as the first two D won't happen...but probably should. I'd like to see what the model says without such weighing. Outside of Poirier in the first there's not too much that would raise a brow.

Lindstrom falling to 12 seems like a trade up opportunity, no?

 

[twabby]

Was star probability always HP's primary ranking criteria?

No clue. It was the default sort but I'm not sure there is a "standard" ranking criteria that Bader uses. The two primary metrics are star probability and NHLer probability. Can probably weigh those as you see fit to come up with a more combined metric.

 

[Langway]

Lindstrom falling to 12 seems like a trade up opportunity, no?

In such a world where it happens. I don't think it'll be this one.