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GDT: 2024 NHL Draft (June 28 - June 29, Las Vegas Sphere)

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Seeing Lapierre awarded with AHL playoffs MVP, it popped my mind that didnt we move up for Lappy in the '20 draft. Checked it and indeed we did. Moving up two spots from 24 --> 22 costed us a third then.

Flames drafted Connor Zary and Boltmann with those picks. I guess its too early to judge it yet, and Zary is a good one too, but right now i'd say that was pretty cool move to make. Lets not forget Lapierre is our own Tavares, bajama-boy who grew up as a Caps fan, so seeing him succeed here would be really fun.

Decided to look some other times we moved up or down, and the results are.. sometimes it work and sometimes not. How suprising.

Here are randomly some (not all by any means);

2019; Devils gets 4th and 5th (drafted nothing worth mentioning), while Caps get a third round pick #91. Capitals select Aliaksei Protas. WIN.
2019; Sharks gets 2x 7th (drafted nothing worth mentioning), Capitals gets 5th. Capitals select Martin Hugo Has. Zero result for both.
2016; Capitals gets 1st (#28)+3rd, St.Louis moves up 2 spots for #26. Capitals select Lucas Johansen and G Pilon. Blues select Tage Thompson. OUCH!! *
2014; Buffalo gets 2nd (#44) and 3rd (nothing wort mentioning here), Capitals get #39. Capitals select Vitek Vanecek. WIN.
2013; Jets gets 3rd+4th+5th (nothing), Capitals get 2nd (#61). Capitals draft Zach Sanford. Miss. **

Just for fun, what if in 2014...

- Capitals once had their hands 4th round pick #118 in 2014, which they got for trading Halak to Islanders. They decided to use that 4th round pick, with another 4th round pick to move up for a 3rd round. Capitals selected Nathan Walker. The #118 ended up being Igor Shesterkin...
- I listed Caps moving up for Vanecek as a win above. But what if Caps couldnt trade up, and another team chose Vanecek before.. Maybe Capitals targets Sorokin?

And I do remember vividly I watched this draft live and was high on Brayden Point and told my friend we should pick him with our 2nd. Point ended up going down to third round, on the range where we would still have had our pick if we didnt move up for Vanecek.

So is there a parallel reality where we end up with Shesterkin, Sorokin and Point from this draft if we dont move Vanecek and Walker?!?!?! Well, I know its fantasy world, but obviously the answer is hell yeah.. This was a draft I was highly following and thats why it has stuck with me. For Caps 1st round I was hoping we either finally draft a Finn (Kasperi Kapanen) or go with one of McCann/Larkin/Bleackley. Vrana was big part of the cup team in 2018 so I could say im glad they didnt "listen" to me.

* Admitted that Thompson did not break out with the team who selected him, so it could have gone that way even if we ended up with Thompson anyways.
** Looking at 2013 draft, we missed a lot of opportunities with moving up for Sanford. In 3-4-5 round these were among the selected names ; Guentzel, Pesce, Buschnevich, Verhaeghe, Duclair, Janmark, Nick Paul, Copp, Ryan Graves, Clifton, Soucy... With those three picks you have atleast a decent chance on hitting some of these late rounders. It was deeeeeeep draft.
 
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Random schmoe said:
Based on what I just read about him, I like him. The Caps have shown an ability recently to help players improve their skating - Cristall as a recent obvious example - so I'd hope their lessons could help Greentree too. (Also based on what I read, I'd be surprised if he's available at 17.)

It sounds like with the quality of his current team he almost has to do and be everything himself. I'm assuming he can break any bad habits that develop as a result of that.

(Fwiw, I know next to nothing about draft prospects this year. Haven't watched them, and no longer have subscriptions to various news outlets that would break them down in detail.)
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For the record, I do like Greentree. I won't be bummed if we end up with him. I was just pointing out that skating seems to be his weakness. And let's be clear, in this range that doesn't mean his skating is going to be a liability. It just means it isn't elite.
 
Sounds like Bob will have Connelly listed at 15. Wonder how much of that is theoretical and/or smokescreen. Solberg not until 20 also raises some smokescreen questions for me.
 
www.tsn.ca

Bob McKenzie's Final NHL Draft Ranking: Many attractive and diverse options after Macklin Celebrini | TSN

This year’s final ranking, from No. 2 on, is much more challenging to assemble because of two factors - many more divergent opinions and variance on even the top 10 picks and two Russians forcing their way into the conversation in the upper echelon.
www.tsn.ca www.tsn.ca
Think if they go forward at 17 they'd really like Hutson (47) or Mews (48) to be there at 52. Kiviharju is ranked 52nd and I could see them finally going for another Finn in that case. Relatively low risk by that point.

I suspect they'll try to move up at some point but have to think they could take a goalie with one of their thirds. If not Yegorov then maybe George if he's on the board. Gardner, a goalie from Saskatoon, would be very them. Surprised Fischer was so low. Overall not a stacked draft for forwards once into the third but a deeper mix of defensemen.
 
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Roshi said:
2019; Devils gets 4th and 5th (drafted nothing worth mentioning), while Caps get a third round pick #91. Capitals select Aliaksei Protas. WIN.
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The trade-ups in the middle rounds has been a sore spot with GMBM's draft strategy and myself for a while, and I'm glad others are looking closely as it as well.

I will say, for this particular trade, I would still keep an eye on who the Devils drafted with both of their picks. Case McCarthy just graduated from the NCAA and turned pro. He's got his work cut out for him to crack the NHL ranks, but he at least has a defined style as a physical D, so it's not impossible. Of more relevance is Arseni Gritsyuk, where the bigger question is if and when he's coming to North America (his current KHL deal expires after this coming season). Gritsyuk has the talent levels to be a Top 6 NHL forward and has had back-to-back productive seasons in the KHL. If he does end up joining the Devils, he could flip the outcome of this deal pretty quick.

Broadly speaking, I'm fine with trading up for targeted picks in the early rounds (particularly the 1st). However, they should avoid trading up in the later rounds (3rd and onwards), and the fact that GMBM has done so repeatedly has been a source of frustration (and you can see why in some of the analysis you did). Later round picks are all throwing darts at a wall - low probability picks. It's better to have multiple chances at hitting something than putting all your eggs in one basket. I'd much rather have two 5% lotto tickets than one 7% lotto ticket.
 
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Langway said:
www.tsn.ca

Bob McKenzie's Final NHL Draft Ranking: Many attractive and diverse options after Macklin Celebrini | TSN

This year’s final ranking, from No. 2 on, is much more challenging to assemble because of two factors - many more divergent opinions and variance on even the top 10 picks and two Russians forcing their way into the conversation in the upper echelon.
www.tsn.ca www.tsn.ca
Think if they go forward at 17 they'd really like Hutson (47) or Mews (48) to be there at 52. Kiviharju is ranked 52nd and I could see them finally going for another Finn in that case. Relatively low risk by that point.

I suspect they'll try to move up at some point but have to think they could take a goalie with one of their thirds. If not Yegorov then maybe George if he's on the board. Gardner, a goalie from Saskatoon, would be very them. Surprised Fischer was so low. Overall not a stacked draft for forwards once into the third but a deeper mix of defensemen.
Click to expand...
Was sort of mentally preparing for the Caps to go with a goalie pick in the 2nd round as it seems there area few rated there.
 
So Jiricek, MBN, Greentree, Luchanko, Solberg all 16-20. Sounds about right.

I like Brunicke at pick 52 there or Tarin Smith, though he could be there in the 3rd…Yegorov too as a G in the 3rd? I imagine someone scoops him in the 2nd though, goalies are weird

AJ spellacy would be a fun swing in the 3rd. He’s fast and an athlete. Only started playing hockey full time this year, I believe he was a football guy. Might as well go for that lotto ticket

 
pman25 said:
So Jiricek, MBN, Greentree, Luchanko, Solberg all 16-20. Sounds about right.

I like Brunicke at pick 52 there or Tarin Smith, though he could be there in the 3rd…Yegorov too as a G in the 3rd? I imagine someone scoops him in the 2nd though, goalies are weird

AJ spellacy would be a fun swing in the 3rd. He’s fast and an athlete. Only started playing hockey full time this year, I believe he was a football guy. Might as well go for that lotto ticket

Click to expand...

Those are some wheels.
 
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pman25 said:
So Jiricek, MBN, Greentree, Luchanko, Solberg all 16-20. Sounds about right.

I like Brunicke at pick 52 there or Tarin Smith, though he could be there in the 3rd…Yegorov too as a G in the 3rd? I imagine someone scoops him in the 2nd though, goalies are weird

AJ spellacy would be a fun swing in the 3rd. He’s fast and an athlete. Only started playing hockey full time this year, I believe he was a football guy. Might as well go for that lotto ticket

Click to expand...


Peter Bondra but with the dangle!
 
usiel said:
Was sort of mentally preparing for the Caps to go with a goalie pick in the 2nd round as it seems there area few rated there.
Click to expand...
If Yegorov is there with our second pick I'd be all about it. If they take one of the other goalies there I don't think they really maximize the value. There are several ping pong balls lottery goalies that could be had with one of the 3rds that are all about the same in terms of likelihood of success. Yegorov is the only one that moves the needle in this class and even he has some warts to work out.
 
Caps truly have the “luxury” of BPA, to which most all espouse.

I don’t have a guy I want as a favourite. Nor someone I dread (unless I’m somehow proven wrong on Friday!).

I’m excited to add some good young talent, this year and next, while having cap space everywhere! This summer is the least space, and then it grows and grows.

As a roster building type person, I find all of this a lot of fun. Obv I’m not calling any shots, but the canvas is pretty clean. And oddly enough, getting cleaner as it gets painted.

Let’s GO Caps!!!

(I may be drunk off too much Calder sauce….but can you blame me??? 😂😂😎😎🙏🏽🙏🏽)
 
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https://x.com/i/web/status/1805807033167528029

I posted Bader's list a few weeks ago, but here is Patrick Bacon's.

Artamanov in particular looks like someone Washington should look to nab. I could see trading up in the second round being a good option to nab him seeing as he's projected as an early second rounder.
 
bacchist said:
Love to see a 17 year old that can hold his own in the KHL.
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Reading a few scouting reports makes it seem like he's also a strong two-way player as well.

Sounds like he's going to be a steal, and hopefully it's Washington that gets him!
 
twabby said:
https://x.com/i/web/status/1805807033167528029

I posted Bader's list a few weeks ago, but here is Patrick Bacon's.

Artamanov in particular looks like someone Washington should look to nab. I could see trading up in the second round being a good option to nab him seeing as he's projected as an early second rounder.
Click to expand...
See, this is where these metrics like NHLe can be useful.

Charting Artamanov's NHLe from last year to this year while recognizing that he did it in the KHL and not a minor/junior league is really valuable. Even if we wanted to take "flukes" into account when something shows up like that it makes you want to scout and figure out if this is a weird thing or if he took a huge step.

I still don't buy in on NHLe as a stat until I've seen a more comprehensive understanding of the success rate when it comes to predictability, but when something moves like that you do have to pay attention to it and supplement it with viewings and more detail.
 
twabby said:
Reading a few scouting reports makes it seem like he's also a strong two-way player as well.

Sounds like he's going to be a steal, and hopefully it's Washington that gets him!
Click to expand...
I think it would be viewed as a stretch at 17. Can't see him being around past the early 2nd round. Now if we could trade back 5-10 spots and get him that would be interesting. Just no guarantee they'll be around when you make a move like that.
 
twabby said:
https://x.com/i/web/status/1805807033167528029

I posted Bader's list a few weeks ago, but here is Patrick Bacon's.

Artamanov in particular looks like someone Washington should look to nab. I could see trading up in the second round being a good option to nab him seeing as he's projected as an early second rounder.
Click to expand...

Tij Iginla at 23. That's, um, different, and not going to happen.
 
Kazer said:
We're in silly season.

A reminder that Bacon's model in 2021 gave Wyatt Johnston a .84% chance of being a star (yes, .84 not 84%) and Sasha Pastujov (he of 23 points in 46 AHL games this season) a 31.82% chance of being a star.
Click to expand...

Well we know no model is perfect, even good ones get things wrong a lot. @twabby does make a case that this is the "most reliable" model, not that its an infallible model.

I think the case that this model is better than the combinations used by NHL FO's, is still open for debate.
 
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