2024 Draft

[Lunatik]

So with what we know now, we have 2 picks in the 1st rnd. Ours should be 10-15, and Van's late in the rnd
I think we can all agree we stocked the D cupboards, and now need to focus on F, specifically C

Hoping we can still get Iginla (I know he's a LW mostly, but still) and Boisvert with the later pick
Dean Letourneau would be a good pick too.

I think we pick 8th or 9th, I can see all of Seattle, St. Louis, New Jersey, Minnesota, and Buffalo passing us. Not sure about Pittsburgh though

 

[User1996]

I’m not so sure the narrative that we have to pick a F rings true. Sure, we have a bunch of interesting guys on D, but lots are still long shots. I don’t think you have the luxury of picking and choosing by position. The age 20-25 age bracket is probably pretty similar in what we have between F and D, and a lot of those F have already cracked the NHL.

I’m hoping we get inside the top 10 though, I think we can have our choice of a very good prospect at that point. Right now, in order I have (all of which would be great adds):

1. Celebrini
2. Demidov
3. Buium
4. Catton
5. Lindstrom
6. Dickinson
7. Silayev
8. Helenius
9. Iginla
10. Yakemchuk

I’m not super high on the rest of the first, so it would be nice to use that Vancouver pick to move up a bit into that top 10 range if we’re just outside of it.

 

[FLAMESFAN]

I think we pick 8th or 9th, I can see all of Seattle, St. Louis, New Jersey, Minnesota, and Buffalo passing us. Not sure about Pittsburgh though

It might be wishful thinking that all those teams pass us. I can see us eventually taking a tailspin, but as we've seen over the past while we can still compete even vs the top teams.
But what do you guys think about Boisvert? Size, skill, compete, 2 way and plays center!

 

[Lunatik]

It might be wishful thinking that all those teams pass us. I can see us eventually taking a tailspin, but as we've seen over the past while we can still compete even vs the top teams.
But what do you guys think about Boisvert? Size, skill, compete, 2 way and plays center!

There is only 4 points between us and Buffalo. If those teams maintain their season pace, if we get 13 or fewer points in the last 20 games they will all pass us.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

Hopefully Connelly (tweet) or Artamanov (Russia) falls to our Vancouver pick.

If we could get Catton, Iginla, or Lindstrom I would be on cloud 9.

I have a lot of faith in this organizations ability to draft and develop D. High end forwards are harder to find late. I have high hopes for Brewski, Poirier and Morin.

 

[Lunatik]

Hopefully Connelly (tweet) or Artamanov (Russia) falls to our Vancouver pick.

If we could get Catton, Iginla, or Lindstrom I would be on cloud 9.

I have a lot of faith in this organizations ability to draft and develop D. High end forwards are harder to find late. I have high hopes for Brewski, Poirier and Morin.

I wouldn't sleep on Grush and Solo, they may not play that sexy game, but they'll be the guys that let the Poirier's and Bruisers the opportunity to play their game. We've seen what playing with Tanev has done for a number of guys, including Kylington and Hanifin

 

[FLAMESFAN]

There is only 4 points between us and Buffalo. If those teams maintain their season pace, if we get 13 or fewer points in the last 20 games they will all pass us.

At least a few of those teams will be putting forth little effort as they jostle for draft position. Meanwhile, we're still hoping for a playoff spot.
I don't see them all passing us.

 

[Lunatik]

At least a few of those teams will be putting forth little effort as they jostle for draft position. Meanwhile, we're still hoping for a playoff spot.
I don't see them all passing us.

Players don't tank, management does. Professional players still take pride in trying to win and play spoiler.

Also, we're now just 3 points up on Pittsburgh (currently picking 8th), 2 up on Buffalo (9th) and up 1 on the Devils (10th)

 

[Yepthatsme]

Wouldnt even say D is stocked, theres no blue chipper there. If any of the big D fell i have no reservations taking em

Blue chip defenseman are over rated. A high drafted defenseman bust at pretty high rates compared to forwards, and a top pair defenseman come from later rounds at much higher rates than top line forwards. Look at our own defense core from the previous decade. Our “blue chippers” have been Hamilton, Hanifin, and Valimaki. Then we have Gio (undrafted), Andersson (2nd round), Weegar (7th), Brodie (4th), Kylington (2nd), with an HM to Fox (3rd). Our high end guys have come from later rounds just as much as the guys who were seen as blue chippers.

Poirier has extremely high end potential (very low floor though), Morin and Brzustewicz look like they could be great if things pan out, Miromanov and Grushnikov have potential, and with how non linear defenseman development is any other guy could just keep progressing and progressing.

High end forwards are a lot more rare to find in later rounds. Think we draft forwards and especially centres in the 1st exclusively for a few years unless an extreme BPA situation happens.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

Blue chip defenseman are over rated. A high drafted defenseman bust at pretty high rates compared to forwards, and a top pair defenseman come from later rounds at much higher rates than top line forwards. Look at our own defense core from the previous decade. Our “blue chippers” have been Hamilton, Hanifin, and Valimaki. Then we have Gio (undrafted), Andersson (2nd round), Weegar (7th), Brodie (4th), Kylington (2nd), with an HM to Fox (3rd). Our high end guys have come from later rounds just as much as the guys who were seen as blue chippers.

Poirier has extremely high end potential (very low floor though), Morin and Brzustewicz look like they could be great if things pan out, Miromanov and Grushnikov have potential, and with how non linear defenseman development is any other guy could just keep progressing and progressing.

High end forwards are a lot more rare to find in later rounds. Think we draft forwards and especially centres in the 1st exclusively for a few years unless an extreme BPA situation happens.

Not saying you’re wrong here, but interested if you have any data to back up this claim (other than looking at our d core, because for every Valimaki/Ryan Murray there is a Bennett/Yakupov who may have a higher floor but still ‘busted’ relative to their draft position).

You could also say the same about our forwards: our best forward of the past decade was a 4th rounder. Our blue chip forwards were Tkachuk, Monahan, Bennett (that is painful to think about lol). I guess Lindholm too. Basically wasted firsts on Klimchuk/Poirier/Janko/Baertschi. Go back further and you have Nemisz, Chucko, Nystrom, and then Dion and Backlund (and Leland Irving lol). Honzek is also not looking very good right now but obviously way too early to make any big assessment.

I’m all for going for a forward because we desperately lack any high end offense, but don’t really see that there is this general rule that blue chip d men have higher bust potential than forwards. Happy to be proven wrong though if there is a big sample of data that proves otherwise.

I can see the logic that more stud dmen come from later rounds, but that doesn’t mean that a certain blue chip d prospect in the early first round might not be the best player available.

Edit: in fact, if you look at this article: NHL Draft Pick Probabilities By Position – DobberProspects

Dmen drafted in the 6-14 range have a higher chance of playing over 100 NHL games than forwards. And Dmen drafted in rounds 2/3 bust at a much higher rate than forwards. Not saying this is dispositive because 100 games isn’t a perfect measuring stick, but interesting nonetheless. I’d stick with BPA but would obviously prefer a C based on our glaring organizational need.

 

[crazyfisherman]

Blue chip defenseman are over rated. A high drafted defenseman bust at pretty high rates compared to forwards, and a top pair defenseman come from later rounds at much higher rates than top line forwards. Look at our own defense core from the previous decade. Our “blue chippers” have been Hamilton, Hanifin, and Valimaki. Then we have Gio (undrafted), Andersson (2nd round), Weegar (7th), Brodie (4th), Kylington (2nd), with an HM to Fox (3rd). Our high end guys have come from later rounds just as much as the guys who were seen as blue chippers.

Poirier has extremely high end potential (very low floor though), Morin and Brzustewicz look like they could be great if things pan out, Miromanov and Grushnikov have potential, and with how non linear defenseman development is any other guy could just keep progressing and progressing.

High end forwards are a lot more rare to find in later rounds. Think we draft forwards and especially centres in the 1st exclusively for a few years unless an extreme BPA situation happens.

Lets just say i disagree with the statement that top D is easier to find in later rounds than forwards. Using that logic our first round forwards suck compared to our JG mangi dube (before hes issues) sharangovich coleman pospisil who are all impactful forwards of the team. For every Josi fox slavin gio toews you pull out i can pull out stone JG kucherov point.

 

[Yepthatsme]

Not saying you’re wrong here, but interested if you have any data to back up this claim (other than looking at our d core, because for every Valimaki/Ryan Murray there is a Bennett/Yakupov who may have a higher floor but still ‘busted’ relative to their draft position).

You could also say the same about our forwards: our best forward of the past decade was a 4th rounder. Our blue chip forwards were Tkachuk, Monahan, Bennett (that is painful to think about lol). I guess Lindholm too. Basically wasted firsts on Klimchuk/Poirier/Janko/Baertschi. Go back further and you have Nemisz, Chucko, Nystrom, and then Dion and Backlund (and Leland Irving lol). Honzek is also not looking very good right now but obviously way too early to make any big assessment.

I’m all for going for a forward because we desperately lack any high end offense, but don’t really see that there is this general rule that blue chip d men have higher bust potential than forwards. Happy to be proven wrong though if there is a big sample of data that proves otherwise.

I can see the logic that more stud dmen come from later rounds, but that doesn’t mean that a certain blue chip d prospect in the early first round might not be the best player available.

Edit: in fact, if you look at this article: NHL Draft Pick Probabilities By Position – DobberProspects

Dmen drafted in the 6-14 range have a higher chance of playing over 100 NHL games than forwards. And Dmen drafted in rounds 2/3 bust at a much higher rate than forwards. Not saying this is dispositive because 100 games isn’t a perfect measuring stick, but interesting nonetheless. I’d stick with BPA but would obviously prefer a C based on our glaring organizational need.

Admittedly it’s mostly anecdotal evidence but from the last decade or so top 20 defenseman seem to have extremely high miss rates and more often than not get passed by later picks at high rates. Like I’ll go through these recent drafts that have had time to develop and compare top 20 picks vs. the field.

2012
Murray, Reinhart, Reilly, Lindholm, Dumba, Pouliot, Trouba, KoekKoek, Ceci

Matheson, Skjei, Severson, Pelech, Lindell, Gostisbehere, Parayko, Slavin

2013
Jones, Nurse, Ristolainen, Morrissey, Pulock, Zadorov, Mueller

Theodore, Pesce, Graves, Soucy, Weegar

2014
Ekblad, Haydn Fleury, Honka, Sanheim, Deangelo

Montour, Walman, Devon Teows, Forsling

2015:
Hanifin, Provorov, Werenski, Zboril, Chabot

Carlo, Cernak, Andersson, Dunn, Marino

2016:
Juolevi, Sergachev, Bean, McAvoy, Chychrun, Fabbro, Stanley, Cholowski

Peeke, Girard, Lindgren, Hronek, Fox

2017 definitely wins for the top 20 selections, that’ll go down as one of the better D drafts in a while. But it hasn’t produced a lot of later round defenseman yet, and seemingly the other drafts from then are still full of defenseman still developing.

A major takeaway from this is you get almost a guaranteed player from the top 20, but also very likely to underperform relative to their draft position. Meanwhile, I listed the defenseman picked later in the drafts, and while obviously I’ve only mentioned the successes, there are still on average some pretty high end players available. More importantly, the field has a legitimate arguement or atleast case to be picked against the top 20 draft pick amongst defenseman, whereas drafts where that’s the case for forwards are extremely few and far between.

In summary, I could be very off base here and my sample size is admittedly thin, but I’d rather repeatedly throw darts at the dart board for defenseman in rounds 2 onward while stick with forwards high, because there are very few drafts I’d rather take the field vs. the top 20 forwards compared to how often the defense have an arguement in that regard.

 

[Yepthatsme]

Comparatively, forwards across those same draft classes

2012:
Yakupov, Galchenyuk, Forsberg, Girgensons, Wilson, Hertl, Teravainen, Laughton

Stephenson, Pearson, McGinn, Martinook

2013:
MacKinnon, Barkov, Drouin, Lindholm, Monahan, Horvat, Nichuskin, Morin, Domi, Wennberg, Lazar, Rachel, Mantha

Lehkonen, Verhaege, Burakovsky, Compher, Buchnevic, Duclair, Copp

2014:
Reinhart, Draisaitl, Bennett, Dal Colle, Nylander, Ehlers, Ritchie, Fiala, Perlini, Vrana, Larkin, Milano, Tuch, Schmaltz

Pastrnak, Point, Arvidsson, Bunting, Olofsson

2015:
McDavid, Eichel, Strome, Marner, Zacha, Meier, Rantanen, Crouse, Gurianov, Debrusk, Senyshyn, Barzal, Connor,Svechnikov (the bad one), JEE

Boeser, Konecny, Aho, Hiintz, Cirelli, Kaprizov

2016: Matthews, Laine, Dubois, Puljujarvi, Tkachuk, Keller, Nylander, Jost, Brown, McLeod, Kunin, Bellows

Thompson, Kyrou, Debrincat, Hagel

Once again, super small sample size. But a certain tier of forward seems almost exclusive to the top 20, with it being far more rare for them to be distributed throughout the draft. Whereas with defenseman, it seems shotgunned throughout the draft. When it comes to forwards, there’s really no argument ever whether you’d like the top 20 vs. The field. Whereas with defenseman, there are multiple years where a discussion could atleast be had or if it’s atleast close.

On players who are associated with our team recently, would you rather our group of late picked forwards (Gaudreau, Mangiapane, Dube, Coleman, Toffoli, Rango) or our late picked D (Gio, Weegar, Fox, Brodie, Andersson, Kylington, Wideman)?

 

[Khrox]

I’m not so sure the narrative that we have to pick a F rings true.

That's why I like BPA style. If you end up with a bunch of one position, you can trade from a strength for a need. You have a lot of D? You can trade for a forward. Lots of RW? Trade for a LW. A lot of good goalies? Well then you can take your pick and probably get a good haul.

 

[Lunatik]

Blue chip defenseman are over rated. A high drafted defenseman bust at pretty high rates compared to forwards, and a top pair defenseman come from later rounds at much higher rates than top line forwards. Look at our own defense core from the previous decade. Our “blue chippers” have been Hamilton, Hanifin, and Valimaki. Then we have Gio (undrafted), Andersson (2nd round), Weegar (7th), Brodie (4th), Kylington (2nd), with an HM to Fox (3rd). Our high end guys have come from later rounds just as much as the guys who were seen as blue chippers.

Poirier has extremely high end potential (very low floor though), Morin and Brzustewicz look like they could be great if things pan out, Miromanov and Grushnikov have potential, and with how non linear defenseman development is any other guy could just keep progressing and progressing.

High end forwards are a lot more rare to find in later rounds. Think we draft forwards and especially centres in the 1st exclusively for a few years unless an extreme BPA situation happens.

I agree in general about defensemen, but calling Valimaki a Blue Chipper is pretty generous., and Hanifin and Hamilton may have been blue chippers, but they weren't prospects when we added them.

I do have faith in our system to develop defensemen though. And while I don't currently see any of our defensemen in the system as top pair guys, at that point in his development, I never saw it in Ras either.

 

[User1996]

2012
Murray, Reinhart, Reilly, Lindholm, Dumba, Pouliot, Trouba, KoekKoek, Ceci

Matheson, Skjei, Severson, Pelech, Lindell, Gostisbehere, Parayko, Slavin

2013
Jones, Nurse, Ristolainen, Morrissey, Pulock, Zadorov, Mueller

Theodore, Pesce, Graves, Soucy, Weegar

2014
Ekblad, Haydn Fleury, Honka, Sanheim, Deangelo

Montour, Walman, Devon Teows, Forsling

2015:
Hanifin, Provorov, Werenski, Zboril, Chabot

Carlo, Cernak, Andersson, Dunn, Marino

2016:
Juolevi, Sergachev, Bean, McAvoy, Chychrun, Fabbro, Stanley, Cholowski

Peeke, Girard, Lindgren, Hronek, Fox

2017 definitely wins for the top 20 selections, that’ll go down as one of the better D drafts in a while. But it hasn’t produced a lot of later round defenseman yet, and seemingly the other drafts from then are still full of defenseman still developing.

A major takeaway from this is you get almost a guaranteed player from the top 20, but also very likely to underperform relative to their draft position. Meanwhile, I listed the defenseman picked later in the drafts, and while obviously I’ve only mentioned the successes, there are still on average some pretty high end players available. More importantly, the field has a legitimate arguement or atleast case to be picked against the top 20 draft pick amongst defenseman, whereas drafts where that’s the case for forwards are extremely few and far between.

In summary, I could be very off base here and my sample size is admittedly thin, but I’d rather repeatedly throw darts at the dart board for defenseman in rounds 2 onward while stick with forwards high, because there are very few drafts I’d rather take the field vs. the top 20 forwards compared to how often the defense have an arguement in that regard.

I don’t want to call it out because you’ve clearly put some work into these posts, but it seems either cherry-picked, not thorough, or just not scientific enough.

If you’re including Andrew Peeke, should we not include the following F’s that have hands down had better NHL careers?

Colton Sissons
Josh Anderson
Andreas Anthanasiou
Alex Kerfoot
Connor Brown
JT Compher
PAVEL BUCHNEVICH
JAKE GUENTZEL
Anthony Duclair
Oliver Bjorkstrand
Dominik Kubalik
Ivan Barbashev
Daniel Sprong
Conor Garland
Andrew Mangiapane

If you look at something more objective like the link Rasmus posted, it tells quite a different story.

 

[FLAMESFAN]

Players don't tank, management does. Professional players still take pride in trying to win and play spoiler.

Also, we're now just 3 points up on Pittsburgh (currently picking 8th), 2 up on Buffalo (9th) and up 1 on the Devils (10th)

You yourself have said how important it is for the players to believe they still have a chance.
Our whole org still believes that, unlike many of those other teams that are now just cruising.

We're currently in 14th spot, but we're at the top of a 7 team logjam separated by only 3 points.
You're saying we'll hardly win from here out and most of those teams will pass us, I disagree.
Unless ofcourse we all of a sudden get hit with key injuries.
I think the reality is we will remain painfully close to that spot to draft Iginla, just enough to give us hope, but I'm fully expecting him to go 1 before us.

 

[User1996]

Further, looking at the last 6 Stanley Cup winners, they don’t win without:

Makar
Hedman
Pietrangelo
Carlson

All D you are very unlikely to get after the 1st.

Heck, even in the top 10 teams this year, only 2 don’t have a highly drafted defenceman that’s a massive piece of their team.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

Comparatively, forwards across those same draft classes

2012:
Yakupov, Galchenyuk, Forsberg, Girgensons, Wilson, Hertl, Teravainen, Laughton

Stephenson, Pearson, McGinn, Martinook

2013:
MacKinnon, Barkov, Drouin, Lindholm, Monahan, Horvat, Nichuskin, Morin, Domi, Wennberg, Lazar, Rachel, Mantha

Lehkonen, Verhaege, Burakovsky, Compher, Buchnevic, Duclair, Copp

2014:
Reinhart, Draisaitl, Bennett, Dal Colle, Nylander, Ehlers, Ritchie, Fiala, Perlini, Vrana, Larkin, Milano, Tuch, Schmaltz

Pastrnak, Point, Arvidsson, Bunting, Olofsson

2015:
McDavid, Eichel, Strome, Marner, Zacha, Meier, Rantanen, Crouse, Gurianov, Debrusk, Senyshyn, Barzal, Connor,Svechnikov (the bad one), JEE

Boeser, Konecny, Aho, Hiintz, Cirelli, Kaprizov

2016: Matthews, Laine, Dubois, Puljujarvi, Tkachuk, Keller, Nylander, Jost, Brown, McLeod, Kunin, Bellows

Thompson, Kyrou, Debrincat, Hagel

Once again, super small sample size. But a certain tier of forward seems almost exclusive to the top 20, with it being far more rare for them to be distributed throughout the draft. Whereas with defenseman, it seems shotgunned throughout the draft. When it comes to forwards, there’s really no argument ever whether you’d like the top 20 vs. The field. Whereas with defenseman, there are multiple years where a discussion could atleast be had or if it’s atleast close.

On players who are associated with our team recently, would you rather our group of late picked forwards (Gaudreau, Mangiapane, Dube, Coleman, Toffoli, Rango) or our late picked D (Gio, Weegar, Fox, Brodie, Andersson, Kylington, Wideman)?

thanks for digging into this. Really interesting debate. I see your point that it is more rare to find top forwards beyond the early/mid first and I also am leaning to a forward prospect (specifically C prospect) because I agree legit elite forwards are more difficult to find in later rounds, but I don’t think that that necessarily indicates that high potential D drafted in the first round bust more. Like I can see your point that elite d can be found more often in later rounds, but that shouldn’t mean that we pass on a high potential dman over a lower-ceiling forward just because we can find other good dmen later at a slightly higher rate. I know you aren’t suggesting to draft a worse forward just for the sake of position, but I think we should always just focus on the highest potential upside in early 1sts.

I just have this vision of finding our Makar/Heiskanen/McAvoy with our early/mid first that can be our pillar to build around. Not to say that we can’t build around a forward, but I’m just not sure I see any forwards with legit elite potential beyond Celebrini and Demidov (maybe Lindstrom), whereas guys like Parekh and Buium have this sneaky upside imo and have a higher chance of being available in our range.

All that said, I would absolutely love to go for Iggy Jr. if our scouts think he’s legit. But otherwise I would want one of those high potential D over some of the boom-bust wingers in the mid-1st range. But center is my first priority too just cause we desperately need that high-end C and I agree with you that those are so hard to find beyond the early 1sts.

 

[Lunatik]

You yourself have said how important it is for the players to believe they still have a chance.
Our whole org still believes that, unlike many of those other teams that are now just cruising.

We're currently in 14th spot, but we're at the top of a 7 team logjam separated by only 3 points.
You're saying we'll hardly win from here out and most of those teams will pass us, I disagree.
Unless ofcourse we all of a sudden get hit with key injuries.
I think the reality is we will remain painfully close to that spot to draft Iginla, just enough to give us hope, but I'm fully expecting him to go 1 before us.

So key injuries will derail us, but not the loss of our entire 2nd/shutdown pair? You also seem to be ignoring that half those teams don't really have to pass us, they're already tied with us.

The reason I think most of those teams can pass us, is they didn't lose as much as us heading into the deadline. The only of those teams that really sold anything significant, is Pittsburgh with Guentzel and NJ with Toffoli, the latter also improved their goaltending situation IMO, and they also have a new coach.

We are also likely to change how we use our goaltending going forward, maybe not for a few games, but when we do Markstrom isn't going to be starting almost every night. Markstrom has started 65% of our games and it's only that low because of minor injuries and illnesses that kept him out of the lineup.

 

[FLAMESFAN]

So key injuries will derail us, but not the loss of our entire 2nd/shutdown pair? You also seem to be ignoring that half those teams don't really have to pass us, they're already tied with us.

The reason I think most of those teams can pass us, is they didn't lose as much as us heading into the deadline. The only of those teams that really sold anything significant, is Pittsburgh with Guentzel and NJ with Toffoli, the latter also improved their goaltending situation IMO, and they also have a new coach.

We are also likely to change how we use our goaltending going forward, maybe not for a few games, but when we do Markstrom isn't going to be starting almost every night. Markstrom has started 65% of our games and it's only that low because of minor injuries and illnesses that kept him out of the lineup.

I'm not ignoring anything.
Markstrom would be a "key injury". And I do agree that we are likely to sit him more soon. I think it is entirely possibly we still win 8 or 9 games, that some of those teams we're close with now will sink hard. I'll be happy if we can finish inside the top 10, but I don't see it.

 

[Yepthatsme]

I don’t want to call it out because you’ve clearly put some work into these posts, but it seems either cherry-picked, not thorough, or just not scientific enough.

If you’re including Andrew Peeke, should we not include the following F’s that have hands down had better NHL careers?

Colton Sissons
Josh Anderson
Andreas Anthanasiou
Alex Kerfoot
Connor Brown
JT Compher
PAVEL BUCHNEVICH
JAKE GUENTZEL
Anthony Duclair
Oliver Bjorkstrand
Dominik Kubalik
Ivan Barbashev
Daniel Sprong
Conor Garland
Andrew Mangiapane

If you look at something more objective like the link Rasmus posted, it tells quite a different story.

Guentzel is an omission on my part, but you definitely missed me including Compher, Buchnevich, and Duclair. Was bound to miss some names skimming entire drafts. As per the rest of your names, sure I could’ve included some of them, but you definitely missed the main point if you’re including them as sticking points. High quality forwards aren’t nearly as dispersed throughout the draft as high quality defenseman, and it comes down to scouts having gotten a lot better at identifying elite qualities in forwards while not as much defenseman.

I’ve always looked at “100 games” as a pretty brutal metric we are using as a place holder until something better comes along. That’s 2 seasons as a 4th liner that draws in more often than not. By those metrics Jankowski was a success story of a 1st round pick, Ruzicka, Hathaway, and Lomberg could’ve been high picks and we should be ok with it, and Tim Erixon was oh so close to being a success story. It’s just an extremely easy dataset to sift through that doesn’t need to be adjusted between defenseman and forwards, it really boils down to just ease of use, and only tells you if you got more than one season of being an NHL regular out of a pick.

 

[Yepthatsme]

thanks for digging into this. Really interesting debate. I see your point that it is more rare to find top forwards beyond the early/mid first and I also am leaning to a forward prospect (specifically C prospect) because I agree legit elite forwards are more difficult to find in later rounds, but I don’t think that that necessarily indicates that high potential D drafted in the first round bust more. Like I can see your point that elite d can be found more often in later rounds, but that shouldn’t mean that we pass on a high potential dman over a lower-ceiling forward just because we can find other good dmen later at a slightly higher rate. I know you aren’t suggesting to draft a worse forward just for the sake of position, but I think we should always just focus on the highest potential upside in early 1sts.

I just have this vision of finding our Makar/Heiskanen/McAvoy with our early/mid first that can be our pillar to build around. Not to say that we can’t build around a forward, but I’m just not sure I see any forwards with legit elite potential beyond Celebrini and Demidov (maybe Lindstrom), whereas guys like Parekh and Buium have this sneaky upside imo and have a higher chance of being available in our range.

All that said, I would absolutely love to go for Iggy Jr. if our scouts think he’s legit. But otherwise I would want one of those high potential D over some of the boom-bust wingers in the mid-1st range. But center is my first priority too just cause we desperately need that high-end C and I agree with you that those are so hard to find beyond the early 1sts.

We agree that if one of the 1st tier defenseman slip to us in the draft after forwards get picked up quicker than anticipated you by no means skip out on it, and draft the much more high caliber player. My main point is that if it is at all close I think you take the forward, modern day scouts just seem to have figured out the forward position much more than defenseman. Most of the high end forwards missed in drafts now are just late 1sts/early2nds that were already identified as players with elite qualities, but just large question marks to go with it. Defenseman are just harder to predict nowadays than forwards, unless they have an insane standout quality like the names you listed. Furthermore, the average draft doesn’t seem to have one of those caliber of names, and almost never 2.

Honestly even in the NHL, try to put together a list of the top 20 forwards, and it’ll look pretty similar to everyone’s with maybe slight variance. Nobody around can seem to agree who the top 20 defense are though, even at the top level we seemingly can’t agree how to quantify a defenseman, let alone project them.

 

[RasmusAndersson]

We agree that if one of the 1st tier defenseman slip to us in the draft after forwards get picked up quicker than anticipated you by no means skip out on it, and draft the much more high caliber player. My main point is that if it is at all close I think you take the forward, modern day scouts just seem to have figured out the forward position much more than defenseman. Most of the high end forwards missed in drafts now are just late 1sts/early2nds that were already identified as players with elite qualities, but just large question marks to go with it. Defenseman are just harder to predict nowadays than forwards, unless they have an insane standout quality like the names you listed. Furthermore, the average draft doesn’t seem to have one of those caliber of names, and almost never 2.

Honestly even in the NHL, try to put together a list of the top 20 forwards, and it’ll look pretty similar to everyone’s with maybe slight variance. Nobody around can seem to agree who the top 20 defense are though, even at the top level we seemingly can’t agree how to quantify a defenseman, let alone project them.

Definitely agree on that main point. D seem to be much more unpredictable unless they have those elite qualities like Buium and Parekh.

I just really hope we don’t go for another off the board pick like Honzek unless they clearly have those elite qualities like you mentioned. Still so sad we missed out on Gabe Perrault and Calum Ritchie and Olivier Moore. But still hoping Honzek is just a late bloomer.

And I’m 100% in agreement that we need those high potential forwards more than anything else. I just really hope we get into a top-10 position here and can get someone with that elite upside instead of reaching in the teens for another Honzek.

 

[User1996]

Guentzel is an omission on my part, but you definitely missed me including Compher, Buchnevich, and Duclair. Was bound to miss some names skimming entire drafts. As per the rest of your names, sure I could’ve included some of them, but you definitely missed the main point if you’re including them as sticking points. High quality forwards aren’t nearly as dispersed throughout the draft as high quality defenseman, and it comes down to scouts having gotten a lot better at identifying elite qualities in forwards while not as much defenseman.

I’ve always looked at “100 games” as a pretty brutal metric we are using as a place holder until something better comes along. That’s 2 seasons as a 4th liner that draws in more often than not. By those metrics Jankowski was a success story of a 1st round pick, Ruzicka, Hathaway, and Lomberg could’ve been high picks and we should be ok with it, and Tim Erixon was oh so close to being a success story. It’s just an extremely easy dataset to sift through that doesn’t need to be adjusted between defenseman and forwards, it really boils down to just ease of use, and only tells you if you got more than one season of being an NHL regular out of a pick.

Sorry about that, I must’ve been looking at the wrong years and comparing them to your posts.

They’re not sticking points, they’re just players of the same quality as at least one you included. But it’s not about arguing about the players, more so the method. Using hand picked examples doesn’t seem to be an ideal way to inform your draft strategy when there’s an entirely new set of players subject to different variable every year. But to be honest, I’m not sure there’s a better way as the 100 game mark isn’t ideal either, I agree.

At the end of the day though, we need talent everywhere - I don’t see us in a position to discriminate. I t feel pretty strongly that we need a blue chip D that can be our Heiskanen, Makar, Hughes, Pietrangelo to compete just as much as we do a 1C - whether that come from this draft, next draft, or the one after that, I don’t particularly care - we are still absolutely in a position to going BPA.