“Worst” route but still most talent in terms of total volume. I wouldn’t say overdrafted as much as just the largest pool at the highest level. Luckily for us the W is the best league now IMO which feels insane to say.
I put “worst” in quotes because it is case by case for every player. If you want your guy to touch the puck a lot and get more offensive reps it’s the place to be. NCAA the best for guys who need to physically mature IMO. Gym all week and more than 2 years. Like Pickering would have been perfect guy for NCAA. Europe is great for guys who need to play a ton but see harder competition. Like you could get a prospect a ton of games in bouncing from senior to U20 hockey.
All things equal I prefer the NCAA, especially the NTDP path. Lot of lower talent guys that have squeezed the absolute max out of their abilities due to a ton of resources and coaching being poured into them from an early age and a long development runway. London and the Chicago Steel are also good examples of similar effective “programs”.
I can't remember where I saw it but I think the stats are CHL players perform worse vs their draft spot than pretty much any other program (I think the US NTDP was up there too - does great, but people focus on it very heavily).
In any case, my main hate on for the CHL is less about the CHL and more about what happens after. I think there's a bunch of prospects who aren't quite ready for the jump from CHL to AHL at 20 but could make the jump from NCAA at 21 or 22. Those extra years of maturity and practice, plus playing against other players who've had them, are big. I do wonder in general whether less game time and more training time would help the CHL but it feels marginal. The age and level at which a guy hits the AHL doesn't. Bonus points for allowing waivers exemption to go on longer, which I think helps a player with a team.
In the case of Brunicke... I can see the argument for CHL being the best place for him for now. Being a focal point. But what happens when he's 20 and he jumps to the pros? It's a steep ask for a 21 year old dman to be good enough defensively to stick in the AHL and it's unlikely he's developed enough offensively that he can stick for that. Being a guy who rises from depth to AHL star and then good NHL player seems really fricking hard. Like I know Dumo took three years in the AHL, but he was playing 50+ games every year. Guys who start their pro careers playing 50 ECHL games and 20 AHL games just don't make it. You pretty much need to be AHL ready straight away and that seems tough.
I read that Friedman said the CHL and NCAA are talking about letting players move between the two. Me, I'd love that for Brunicke. Being able to give him a year in the NCAA as a halfway house. Not possible
