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2024 2nd Overall Artyom Levshunov

OldScool said:
Let's just say that my buddy knows a lot more than you will ever know and I respect his opinion more than I respect some keyboard jockey. He has decades of experience and made a living scouting and coaching - you don't. Does your opinion matter - sure - but I hold his assessment in higher standing than yours. Just because he was the #2 pick in 2017 and was out in the league in 3.5 seasons.
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Again, you aren't giving us any actual proof that you even have a friend who is/was an NHL scout. And yet you continue to try to use 'him' as a means to win an argument over the internet. What if I were to tell you that I'm Danny Wirtz, owner of an NHL team and someone who employs a shit ton of scouts?

I'm not Danny Wirtz. But you have no way of truly knowing if I was lying or not. Because there is NO PROOF of it. You have NO PROOF that you actually are friends with a hockey scout. Stop using him to try to win arguments here.

And yes, Nolan Patrick did not work out. But he was NOT the most recent 2nd overall pick. It has been less than a year since Levshunov was drafted, which is far too early to have him go from "high end prospect" to " he'll top out as a 3rd pairing guy".

And in another comment here, you go and say that you don't think anyone questions his offense. There are plenty of defenders in this league that almost exclusively contribute offensively, but are still widely considered to be either top pairing or middle pairing D. Is Morgan Reilly a bottom pairing guy because he sucks defensively? How about Nurse? How about Seth f***ing Jones? I know his ass isn't good defensively, yet he's on the reigning cup champs right now playing in either a top pairing or middle pairing role.

The amount of contradictions you are making with your posts are astounding. Kinda hard to imagine anyone wanting to be friends with someone like that, which is just another reason to doubt you have a friend who was an NHL scout.
 
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I think Lev has warts but he's also a 19 year old defenseman. I think he looks light years better than Jiricek and look what he fetched in a trade, so I suspect Lev has a ton of value.I'm optimistic about Lev, but realistic. I suspect he will be in the mold of Boris Mironov or Seth Jones. Those aren't bottom pairing guys.
 
OldScool said:
Let's just say that my buddy knows a lot more than you will ever know and I respect his opinion more than I respect some keyboard jockey. He has decades of experience and made a living scouting and coaching - you don't. Does your opinion matter - sure - but I hold his assessment in higher standing than yours. Just because he was the #2 pick in 2017 and was out in the league in 3.5 seasons.
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Your friend failed as a pro hockey scout, which is why he's not a pro hockey scout, and should probably make sure he's on time to his next shift at the Amazon warehouse more than giving his hot takes that a number 2 won't make the NHL.
 
CallMeShaft said:
Again, you aren't giving us any actual proof that you even have a friend who is/was an NHL scout. And yet you continue to try to use 'him' as a means to win an argument over the internet. What if I were to tell you that I'm Danny Wirtz, owner of an NHL and someone who employs a shit ton of scouts?

I'm not Danny Wirtz. But you have no way of truly knowing if I was lying or not. Because there is NO PROOF of it. You have NO PROOF that you actually are friends with a hockey scout. Stop using him to try to win arguments here.

And yes, Nolan Patrick did not work out. But he was NOT the most recent 2nd overall pick. It has been less than a year since Levshunov was drafted, which is far too early to have him go from "high end prospect" to " he'll top out as a 3rd pairing guy".

And in another comment here, you go and say that you don't think anyone questions his offense. There are plenty of defenders in this league that almost exclusively contribute offensively, but are still widely considered to be either top pairing or middle pairing D. Is Morgan Reilly a bottom pairing guy because he sucks defensively? How about Nurse? How about Seth f***ing Jones? I know his ass isn't good defensively, yet he's on the reigning cup champs right now playing in either a top pairing or middle pairing role.

The amount of contradictions you are making with your posts are astounding. Kinda hard to imagine anyone wanting to be friends with someone like that, which is just another reason to doubt you have a friend who was an NHL scout.
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Being a 3rd pairing defenseman on an NHL team is probably above the hit rate of a 1st round NHL defenseman. It's still in the NHL. He isn't a Quinn Hughes or Cale Makar. My buddy projects him as a bottom pairing guy who can play on PP 2nd unit....thats not awful.
 
Wally1112pac said:
R-Truth's, Lil Jimmy is more real than this guys "pro scout friend".
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Levshunov already made the NHL...if he exceeds or sticks at this level is the debate. I am sure every NHL 1st round draft pick GM thought they had a player that would play in the NHL or else they wouldn't have picked them.
 
OldScool said:
Being a 3rd pairing defenseman on an NHL team is probably above the hit rate of a 1st round NHL defenseman. It's still in the NHL. He isn't a Quinn Hughes or Cale Makar. My buddy projects him as a bottom pairing guy who can play on PP 2nd unit....thats not awful.
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He wasn't just a 1st round defenseman. He was the 2nd overall pick. Big difference there.

And there is a huge difference between the two, arguably, best defensemen in the league right now and being a bottom pairing defenseman.

32 teams. Each with an average of two top pairing D and two middle pairing D. 32 x 4 = 128

By saying he'll be a bottom pairing guy, at best, you aren't saying he'll just be worse than Hughes or Makar. You are saying he'll be worse than over 128 different defensemen in the league. In his prime years.

And you are saying that, not with the power of hindsight, but with the magical power of foresight.

Powerball and Mega Millions are both starting to get up there, jackpot wise, so if you could please use these gifts of yours (or your friend's) to look in the future and tell me what each of the winning lotto numbers are for them, I'd greatly appreciate.
 
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TLEH said:
I think his play has been pretty solid so far. The Hawks in general have just played very poorly. The tools are still the same tools that got him drafted where he was. You can see real improvement from NCAA to now. He's looked really comfortable on the PP as well.
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Actually, I've been pleasantly surprised with his defensive awareness and positioning up here compared to what he's done in Rockford. He still needs work but he's progressing.
 
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Screenshot 2025-03-19 151357.png


Someone please explain to me why I should f***ing trust plus/minus. Sure, Hammer was very deserving of a plus 25. But there is no way in hell that Rundblad was better here than Keith. Hell, Seabrook was already showing signs of slowing down, but he wasn't nearly as broken in 14-15 as Michal "Plus/Minus of Zero" Rozsival was.

Plus/Minus is the most flawed hockey stat there is. That's not to say there's nothing to takeaway from it, but using it as your biggest point in an argument is asinine.
 
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Darkstar said:
Actually, I've been pleasantly surprised with his defensive awareness and positioning up here compared to what he's done in Rockford. He still needs work but he's progressing.
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My buddy was evaluating him for his play in Rockford. By that account it sounds like he is improving. I have watched a bunch of Rockford and saw Lev struggle as well defensively especially during the early season games.
 
CallMeShaft said:
View attachment 995563

Someone please explain to me why I should f***ing trust plus/minus. Sure, Hammer was very deserving of a plus 25. But there is no way in hell that Rundblad was better here than Keith. Hell, Seabrook was already showing signs of slowing down, but he wasn't nearly as broken in 14-15 as Michal "Plus/Minus of Zero" Rozsival was.

Plus/Minus is the most flawed hockey stat there is. That's not to say there's nothing to takeaway from it, but using it as your biggest point in an argument is asinine.
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If its so irrelevant why does the NHL give out an award for it?
 
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OldScool said:
Being a 3rd pairing defenseman on an NHL team is probably above the hit rate of a 1st round NHL defenseman. It's still in the NHL. He isn't a Quinn Hughes or Cale Makar. My buddy projects him as a bottom pairing guy who can play on PP 2nd unit....thats not awful.
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I believe it's something around 75% of 1st round picks go on to be regular NHL players. So no... it's probably not above the hit rate. Why don't you go look at the last 5 or 6 drafts, find all the first round D, and then tell me if they're in the NHL, and are they bottom pairing D or not? Your buddy is an idiot, and your opinions are ridiculous, and bordering on pure stupidity, also.

You can find data that EVERY top 5 pick for a 10 year span played at least 100 NHL games. And yet you think that the likelihood that your buddy is right about him being a bottom-pairing D holds weight? And you use his +/- in his D+1 season as a 19 year old in 3 games to support your buddy's ridiculously stupid opinion? :laugh: Even when all the fancy stats and eye test say he has been above average defensively so far?

Here's some food for thought. Probability of the 2nd overall pick's games played.

2nd Overall:​

  • 1+ NHL Games: 93.4% (57/61)
  • 100+ NHL Games: 90.2% (55/61)
  • 300+ NHL Games: 82.0% (50/61)
  • 500+ NHL Games: 72.1% (44/61)
  • 750+ NHL Games: 45.9% (28/61)
  • 1000+ NHL Games: 32.8% (20/61)
  • 1+ NHL Points: 93.4% (57/61)
  • 100+ NHL Points: 82.0% (50/61)
  • 300+ NHL Points: 72.1% (44/61)
  • 500+ NHL Points: 52.5% (32/61)
  • 750+ NHL Points: 27.9% (17/61)
  • 1000+ NHL Points: 11.5% (7/61)
dobberprospects.com

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities By Position

After the first article about NHL Draft Pick Probabilities (link) was released, there were some asking for something similar but with different player positions being separated to see if there are any differences there. That raised my interest, so I decided to use the same data
dobberprospects.com

There it's broken down by position. Do some research before you make yourself look even dumber.
 
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It’s kind of hard to believe he came back here to say I told you so my buddy is right after 3 games due to his plus minus hahahaha.

If one can appeal the the authority of your blind buddy the former scout, perhaps gaining his job due to luck or nepotism should he actually exist, why not go another step and take the opinion of numerous currently employed actual scouts whose consensus reportedly ranked him as a very high draft pick, presumably to go on to be much more than a third pairing at best.
 
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OldScool said:
Why do they still track it then? Seems to me that a player is more valuable if they are on the ice for more goals than they give up.
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Nice to see you move the goal posts from this being an award to 'well, why do they still track it then?'.

They track it because it's a stat. A very flawed one, but still a stat.

Why don't you answer the question I've asked numerous times to you here, who was better in the 14-15 season, Keith or Rundblad? And who was better in that season between Seabs and Rozsival?

Please refrain from responding to any future posts of mine in this thread until you answer those two questions.
 
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Here's some more info for you. All the D drafted in the top 5 over the last 10 years.

2024 - Levshunov,
2023 - Reinbacher
2022 - Nemec(Jiricek at 6)
2021 - Power, L. Hughes
2020 - Sanderson
2019 - Byram(Seider at 6)
2018 - Dahlin(Q Hughes at 7)
2017 - Heiskanen, Makar
2016 - Juolevi
2015 - Hanifin

So do me a favor. How many of those top 5 D drafted (with a couple exceptions outside the top 5 that actually still prove my argument) are bottom-pairing D?

And you're gonna trust what your "buddy the pro scout" says about Lev over what pretty much all statistical analysis and historical draft data says? :laugh:

D drafted in around the top 7 picks have basically been a guaranteed star, or at the very least, top pairing D, for the last 10 years+. And I'd be willing to bet it's still like that going back even farther.
 
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