Speculation: 2024/25 Trade Rumours, Speculation etc Thread

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Not bad if he re-signs with them but costly if he doesn't.
The cost being with 75% retention, which is the reason why I quoted you to add that caveat.

I'm not a huge Frederic fan by any means - he likely helps Edmonton's depth, but it'd be nice to see the market hopefully stay relatively in check with what's left being a buyer.

Not bad if he re-signs with them but costly if he doesn't.
The cost being with 75% retention, which is the reason why I quoted you to add that caveat.

I'm not a huge Frederic fan by any means - he likely helps Edmonton's depth, but it'd be nice to see the market hopefully stay relatively in check with what's left being a buyer.

Not bad if he re-signs with them but costly if he doesn't.
The cost being with 75% retention, which is the reason why I quoted you to add that caveat.

I'm not a huge Frederic fan by any means - he likely helps Edmonton's depth, but it'd be nice to see the market hopefully stay relatively in check with what's left being a buyer.
 
Edmonton didn't really need Frederic, and he's injured (and might not be ready for the playoffs), and they gave up a 2nd, 4th, and decent (unsigned) prospect for him. Seems like a terrible trade to make.
Evans, who cares.

I don't think Boston will move Geekie at this point, they'll need him for the rebuild.
Colorado is not going to trade Mittlestadt within the division.

We probably should've made our deadline moves yesterday, they'll cost 25% more from now on..
 
Just saying...

There are 736 NHL jobs up for grabs in 32 cities (based on a 23 man roster). About 100 of those jobs are in the least desirable locations (let's say Winnipeg, Edmonton, Buffalo). Average NHL salary in 2023-2024 was $3.49 million per year and median retirement age is 31.

I would work in any of those 32 for $3.49 million a year, with deluxe work travel, fan adoration, and a high quality organization running the show.
861 players have appeared in a NHL game this season & 260 have some form of NTC or NMC, so to begin with just 30% even have these in their contracts. A player must be over 27 AND have 7 years of NHL experience to negotiate such a deal into their contract.

Of those 260, 110 have either a full NMC's or a full NTC. This amounts to 12.7% of all contracts. They're not only unavailable to the Jets, unless they waive, 30 other teams can't trade for them either.

Of the remaining 150, the NTC most commonly fluctuate between 3-16 teams. There are only 4 NHL players whose NTC involves more than 18 teams. As a rule this exists so players on contending teams don't find themselves traded to teams outside the playoff line, hence why 16 is such a common number.

Now clearly that isn't always the case. It was recently reported in the Athletic that in an 82 player sample, Winnipeg appeared on 48% of these players lists. (150x0.48=72)

This math suggest 72 players in the NHL have the Jets on their list, which amount to 8% of all the players playing the NHL this season.

You could argue further that a good portion of these 72 are on albatross contracts or are playing significantly below the contracted value & not worth trading for in the first place.

I've posted something similar for several seasons now around this time of year.

In a nutshell are the Jets operating at a disadvantage? Sure...but it's a marginal disadvantage at best.
 
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861 players have appeared in a NHL game this season & 260 have some form of NTC or NMC, so to begin with just 30% even have these in their contracts. A player must be over 27 AND have 7 years of NHL experience to negotiate such a deal into their contract.

Of those 260, 110 have either a full NMC's or a full NTC. This amounts to 12.7% of all contracts. They're not only unavailable to the Jets, unless they waive, 30 other teams can't trade for them either.

Of the remaining 150, the NTC most commonly fluctuate between 3-16 teams. There are only 4 NHL players whose NTC involves more than 18 teams. As a rule this exists so players on contending teams don't find themselves traded to teams outside the playoff line, hence why 16 is such a common number.

Now clearly that isn't always the case. It was recently reported in the Athletic that in an 82 player sample, Winnipeg appeared on 48% of these players lists. (150x0.48=72)

This math suggest 72 players in the NHL have the Jets on their list, which amount to 8% of all the players playing the NHL this season.

You could argue further that a good portion of these 72 are on albatross contracts or are playing significantly below the contracted value & not worth trading for in the first place.

I've posted something similar for several seasons now around this time of year.

In a nutshell are the Jets operating at a disadvantage? Sure...but it's a marginal disadvantage at best.
lol, the athletic poll had 48% of players listing the jets as the FIRST team they would add to the list, that number would grow if you allow them to add more then just one team...

when you are listed as the first team on peoples no trade lists on nearly 50% of players then it is more then just a marginal disadvantage...

it's been 15 years, it would be nice if people just accepted that it's going to be hard for winnipeg to attract players
 
Jake Evans re-signed in MTL

Anyone else wondering if this is part of a sign & trade deal for later in the week? The salary isn't outrageous, it's reasonable enough for his production. Might a buyer be more likely to offer more for a signed Evans?

I'm just spit-balling/speculating here otherwise why does Evans go from a prime rumored trade piece to signing a 4 year deal? The obvious answer could just be the insiders are full of crap all the time but might it be something else?
 
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Anyone else wondering if this is part of a sign & trade deal for later in the week? The salary isn't outrageous, it's reasonable enough for his production. Might a buyer be more likely to offer more for a signed Evans?

I'm just spit-balling/speculating here otherwise why does Evans go from a prime rumored trade piece to signing a 4 year deal? The obvious answer could just be the insiders are full of crap all the time but might it be something else?

They talked about this on DFO, FWIW.

Apparently, Montreal covets the player, but they were only interested in bringing him back on a deal that wouldn't hamstring them from moving him in the future if necessary. Evans wanted to stay in Montreal and gave ground during the negotiations. Hence, the final deal they reached.

They are still somehow in the mix on the WC as the East is so wide open.
 
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lol, the athletic poll had 48% of players listing the jets as the FIRST team they would add to the list, that number would grow if you allow them to add more then just one team...

when you are listed as the first team on peoples no trade lists on nearly 50% of players then it is more then just a marginal disadvantage...

it's been 15 years, it would be nice if people just accepted that it's going to be hard for winnipeg to attract players
That's a fair point. The wording in the Athletic definitely reads as you state.

"If you have a no-trade list, what's the first team on it?

It also states, "111 players were polled on a range of topics."

So this wasn't a poll strictly of players with NTC's or NTM's. The majority of them would be players under 27 without 7 seasons. The would represent just 12.9% of the players who played this year. As a result the entire poll is garbage because it's not at all reflective of players that even have that clause in their contract.

If 12.9% of the entire league were polled then the likelihood of any of these players actually having a NMC or NTC would be a fraction of that. To get specific 17% of players have contracts which specify teams they refuse to go to. (.13*.17=0.0221). So of the players polled 2.21% would have actually had a NMC in place.

Until there's a poll that includes the entire list of players with NMC's, the math regarding what fraction of players have Winnipeg on their list remains purely speculative, but as the math suggests that this affects the Jets in a very small way.



 
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Anyone else wondering if this is part of a sign & trade deal for later in the week? The salary isn't outrageous, it's reasonable enough for his production. Might a buyer be more likely to offer more for a signed Evans?

I'm just spit-balling/speculating here otherwise why does Evans go from a prime rumored trade piece to signing a 4 year deal? The obvious answer could just be the insiders are full of crap all the time but might it be something else?
I think Montreal is going to move on from Dvorak after the season. Losing both bottom 6 centers would leave a pretty big hole. Evans is a key player for that team, especially PK.

And they have won 5 in a row, to put themselves in a pretty decent position in the playoff race. Might be pretenders but it changes the narrative. 1 point out of playoff spot is attainable. And there is no crazier hockey market than Montreal in the playoffs.

Short answer insiders don't have a lot of inside info, unless somebody is leaky.

Looks like 22 teams will still be in the playoff race after the deadline, so there's 10 sellers. Though I think there's a chance Vancouver drops Boeser at the deadline. And the Rangers are obviously going to trade Reilly Smith. The sellers will get inflated value on every player. Chevy might have to go under the radar. Or rely on internal depth if the rental market gets too crazy.
 
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Holy!! I had no idea they played the season just $4 million over the cap floor. That makes sense then.

The top 5 teams with deadline space appear to be:
  • Columbus Blue Jackets: Deadline cap space of $86.4 million
  • Washington Capitals: $3.7 million and $16.7 million LTIR pool available
  • Florida Panthers: $8.7 million and $10.6 million LTIR pool
  • Detroit Red Wings: $13.6 million cap space
  • Winnipeg Jets: $12.4 million cap space
 
That's a fair point. The wording in the Athletic definitely reads as you state.

"If you have a no-trade list, what's the first team on it?

It also states, "111 players were polled on a range of topics."

So this wasn't a poll strictly of players with NTC's or NTM's. The majority of them would be pllayers under 27 without 7 season. The would represent just 12.9% of the players who played this year.

So 12.9% of the entire league were polled & the likelihood of any of these players actually having a NMC or NTC would be a fraction of that. To get specific 17% of players have contracts which specify teams they refuse to go to. (.13*.17=0.0221). So of the players polled 2.21% would have actually had a NMC in place to speak on.

Until there's a poll that includes the entire list of players with NMC's, the math regarding what fraction of players have Winnipeg actually on their list remains purely speculative, but as the math suggests affects the Jets in a marginal way.



dude, every single time a poll comes out the jets are near the top, every time people talk about the jets they mention how hard it is for them to get players in, all the random numbers you try and pull out of your ass isn't going to change that, it doesn't even matter if some of those players polled don't have trade protection, it just shows the general sentiment that players have towards the jets....
 
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dude, every single time a poll comes out the jets are near the top, every time people talk about the jets they mention how hard it is for them to get players in, all the random numbers you try and pull out of your ass isn't going to change that, it doesn't even matter if some of those players pulled don't have trade protection, it just shows the general sentiment that players have towards the jets....

Yeah the sample is statistically significant. I'd imagine it's pretty darn close to what the actual numbers are.

Also its a bit misleading to include all players in the sample. Most good players under 27 arent available so lack of trade protection doesn't matter. You are dealing with a small portion of players at the deadline and I'd imagine that portion of players is in the grouping that a large portion of it has trade protection. Most every player mentioned on here as a target has some kind of protection just underscoring how hard it is for us.
 

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