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Speculation: 2024/25 Trade Rumours, Speculation etc Thread

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voyageur said:
As for the above post, I think Vilardi is worth as much as Ehlers to this team. It's funny the discrepancy because their stats are very similar, and Vilardi plays a harder role, with more goals as a result. UFA I think Ehlers gets a number over 10 though, and a bigger role.
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Yeah I think this is fair assessment. I'm guessing the only big difference is RFA vs. UFA status. Can't remember if Vilardi has 1 or 2 remaining RFA years after this season.

Ehlers is producing at a top line level again 5v5, with some time missed which you kind of need to bake into his value at this point. But he is also closest to Vilardi per 60 on the PP so he has been great there.

Vilardi is leading the top PP in the league in points which is quite the feather in his cap. Producing well at 5v5 but more of a 2nd line rate. But also fully healthy which is huge for him.

Nothing bad to say about either guy, they are both full value for their roles on the team and outperforming their contracts (Vilardi especially).

I think on an 8 year deal today for each Vilardi is more 7.5 AAV and Ehlers is 8.5 just from the RFA year(s)
 
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DRW204 said:
they def were looking into another C with moanhan and henrique in the off-season. i can't see them going with any of Stanley, Fleury or Heinola as a regular in the POs either so id be unsurprised if they brought in another serviceable vet for 3LD.

chevy has been the GM for 14 years with minimal PO success. if it's not this year then when are the Jets going to go for it? im sure the players want to get some upgrades too for a long PO run.

also ehlers getting over 10M is ridiculous. fwds in the 0.9-1.1 PPG range this year have an average cap hit of ~7.5m, & if you isolate it to those signed as UFA's it's ~8m as an average.
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It may be ridiculous. But I think the market is going to be set by Rantanen and Marner and Ehlers likely carries that wave if he tests the waters. Free agency is when teams go big to make the splash in their offseason. Be interesting to see where he and Boeser compare.

For Stanley I'm not sure there. I just watched game 4 of the Jets-Habs series in 2021, from Kes's house, a SN feature, that obviously involved some alcohol, and Stan was the man. Kesler was going nuts over him, while Morrissey was getting pushed around a lot without his d-partner. I think the Jets would like him to get back to that point. There's 3 very different players on the left side, in Stanley, Fleury and Heinola, who can all play differently to add something, and you go down the right side depth chart you have Coghlan and Salomonsson, who might see some playoff action, if he's ready. If Stanley falters before the deadline, and he'll probably get the run there, then I think there would be an add. Of course injury would change everything.

C depth looks a lot worse if one injury has Kupari in a top 9 role, given his career of not much offense. As a defensive specialist.

I don't know where else to put this but the former NHLers were talking about players who chirp in the handshake line, and Kesler had an interesting story about meeting Scheifele in the line in 2015, where he said Scheif's comment to him was (paraphrased) I want to mold my NHL career after your game. Obviously Scheif was always a #1, not a #2 shutdown guy. But it's funny because another #17 has kind of elevated his play to be more like a Ryan Kesler, and I wonder how Chevy and Arniel see that in terms of depth, and needs.
 
Flair Hay said:
Yeah I think this is fair assessment. I'm guessing the only big difference is RFA vs. UFA status. Can't remember if Vilardi has 1 or 2 remaining RFA years after this season.

Ehlers is producing at a top line level again 5v5, with some time missed which you kind of need to bake into his value at this point. But he is also closest to Vilardi per 60 on the PP so he has been great there.

Vilardi is leading the top PP in the league in points which is quite the feather in his cap. Producing well at 5v5 but more of a 2nd line rate. But also fully healthy which is huge for him.

Nothing bad to say about either guy, they are both full value for their roles on the team and outperforming their contracts (Vilardi especially).

I think on an 8 year deal today for each Vilardi is more 7.5 AAV and Ehlers is 8.5 just from the RFA year(s)
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this year's ehlers demonstrates how PP1 role can really mask some slippage in 5v5 play.

the PP1 spot more than making up for the decline this season at 5v5 pts. overall playing at a pace that could smash career high in points, despite essentially same overall ATOI as last couple years.

for ease: pro-rated totals at per-82 gp rate
1736801490287.png


edit - apparently new HF doesn't like tables.

i think vilardi and ehlers roughly will end up making around the same - 7-8M per year. if the season continues like this for both of course. ehlers will have done it in less ATOI, and way lesser caliber of linemates. at the end of the day i think for the most part points gets you paid and those 2 are pacing at similar levels.
 
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Wpgpage said:
Brooks doesn't generally toss out a lot of garbage so I tend to believe this one might be true. Also just seems like a Chevy type of move.

Ehlers and Barzal together would be an absolute dream. Would imagine the cost is Perfetti plus a 1st plus probably another asset. Wouldn't surprise me if Lou wanted Fetts, Lambert and a 1st right now. If they could get the cost down to Fetts, 1st and Ville / Stan? Would be all over that.

I added his 9.15 into my cap sheet and it is doable to bring back Ehlers & Pionk with that included. Leaves you with around 3 mil to sign one of AI, Names & Apples. The other two walk and get replaced with ELCs.
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I'd add Lambert to get that deal done. Solves the 2C issue and give Yager time to develop and not be rushed and makes Lambert expendable. Plus Ehlers and Barzal would be FUN to watch and might actually mesh really well! Throw Iafallo on that line as the board battler.
 
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scarbrow said:
I'd add Lambert to get that deal done. Solves the 2C issue and give Yager time to develop and not be rushed and makes Lambert expendable. Plus Ehlers and Barzal would be FUN to watch and might actually mesh really well! Throw Iafallo on that line as the board battler.
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I've heard some negative things about Barzal in the past, and for me that would be a red flag if a guy with a long term contract like that was on the market. The fact he's on the books for more than Scheif would be a non starter for me, where you get back to the whole Scheif/Dubois 1A/1B situation that didn't really work in any way. Barzal for Pettersson would be something I could see. Where two straight centers who didn't get along with JT Miller get moved out. Also would be a team that likely isn't on Barzal NTC.

Besides, his numbers this year, even though he has missed half the season, line up directly with Brock Nelson's, though Nelson has more goals and is better on the draw. I think he's a guy who comes cheaper with the UFA status, maybe only costs that 1st round pick, which who knows if it's in play (Jets haven't hit on any first that late in the draft, with Lambert still a work in progress). Also being from Warroad, just down the road might have some appeal for playing in this market.
 
Yeah but with Vilardi you are buying 2 RFA years they are just inherently cheaper than UFA years. The longer a Vilardi contact goes the higher the AAV rises. I think the sweet spot is 4 or 5 years you can keep the cap a little lower this team is likely going to be in rebuilding/ retooling mode at that point as the current core ages out so having Vilardi on a cheap contract to use as a trade chip would be extremely valuable.
 
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Barzal would be nice but that I am quite unsure of the source putting that out there. One guy who I think has a decent price tag and term is Ryan Strome in ANA. He is a 2C and his term is development friendly for those in the pipeline. Another guy who I was impressed with on ANA was LD Dumoulin; I really liked his game when we played them and he would be a sturdy 3rd pairing D. Getting those two would be nice adds. As for cost? Man, I dont know. Thoughts?
 
voyageur said:
I've heard some negative things about Barzal in the past, and for me that would be a red flag if a guy with a long term contract like that was on the market. The fact he's on the books for more than Scheif would be a non starter for me, where you get back to the whole Scheif/Dubois 1A/1B situation that didn't really work in any way. Barzal for Pettersson would be something I could see. Where two straight centers who didn't get along with JT Miller get moved out. Also would be a team that likely isn't on Barzal NTC.

Besides, his numbers this year, even though he has missed half the season, line up directly with Brock Nelson's, though Nelson has more goals and is better on the draw. I think he's a guy who comes cheaper with the UFA status, maybe only costs that 1st round pick, which who knows if it's in play (Jets haven't hit on any first that late in the draft, with Lambert still a work in progress). Also being from Warroad, just down the road might have some appeal for playing in this market.
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There were negative things said about Eichel, ROR, Seguin etc. Before they were traded. Good things came out of those Deals for the acquiring teams. Same goes for Pettey and Miller. VAN Is destined to lose those deals and the other team might very well be put over the top. Sometimes gotta take a risk for star talent especially in our market.
Dubois deal was a good example of swinging and missing too but I'd go back and make that deal again based on potential
 
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DRW204 said:
2C? a long-term one at that. the position/spot on the depth chart that the Jets have sought after each TDL from 2018-2020, and then 2024. the middle 3 years is when PLD was here.
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But he wasnt that great as a 2C...

DRW204 said:
this year's ehlers demonstrates how PP1 role can really mask some slippage in 5v5 play.

the PP1 spot more than making up for the decline this season at 5v5 pts. overall playing at a pace that could smash career high in points, despite essentially same overall ATOI as last couple years.

for ease: pro-rated totals at per-82 gp rate
View attachment 960426

edit - apparently new HF doesn't like tables.

i think vilardi and ehlers roughly will end up making around the same - 7-8M per year. if the season continues like this for both of course. ehlers will have done it in less ATOI, and way lesser caliber of linemates. at the end of the day i think for the most part points gets you paid and those 2 are pacing at similar levels.
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No brainer to lock down each of them at 8m...
 
scarbrow said:
There were negative things said about Eichel, ROR, Seguin etc. Before they were traded. Good things came out of those Deals for the acquiring teams. Same goes for Pettey and Miller. VAN Is destined to lose those deals and the other team might very well be put over the top. Sometimes gotta take a risk for star talent especially in our market.
Dubois deal was a good example of swinging and missing too but I'd go back and make that deal again based on potential
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Winnipeg is about as anticlimactic of a market as there is. Draft, develop. Go to the cottage for July. Trade or sign for names that make fans deliriously angry or underwhelmed in the offseason. Trade draft picks at the deadline if in, trade UFAs if out. Restart the process.

I agree that outside noise shouldn't affect scouting, and there are clashes that happen all the time between coaches/players or players/players. I am just not sure if this org is looking for star power over more depth at this point. The star power comes from drafting and developing here. Dubois was a unique case because of the Covid year, his dad being here, and Laine having a fallout with the team. I'm sure if the Jets were in the same draft position again they would have taken Laine over Dubois, and kept Little/Stastny as a 2C, but circumstances changed. Getting Vilardi from the Kings in that trade filled a hole that Laine and Roslovic left, and one that Wheeler couldn't succeed in at the end.

I'll be shocked if any roster player gets traded. Heinola would be the only I could see, just to give him an opportunity, and his value in a trade isn't high (probably 3rd/4th round equivalent). But even he might be more valued here for depth. That starts again next season.
 
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I think Ehlers get a big payday this summer. The guy plays repeatedly plays with lower tier linemates while KFC and Scheif are joined at the hip.
Put Ehlers on a top line with a guy like Mackinnon or McDavid and he's easily a 90 point player.
 
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Cotton Eye Joe said:
I think Ehlers get a big payday this summer. The guy plays repeatedly plays with lower tier linemates while KFC and Scheif are joined at the hip.
Put Ehlers on a top line with a guy like Mackinnon or McDavid and he's easily a 90 point player.
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What if Ehlers does not play more minutes because he physically can't handle more playing time?
 
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