Speculation: 2024/25 Trade Rumours, Speculation etc Thread

[DRW204]

Agreed, Stanley actually shows well in GF% and xGF%. He isn't a CF% darling but interestingly neither are all of our best forwards, including the usual possession beast Ehlers. Bottom line is we score more with Stanley on the ice then we get scored against and he is a big physical presence and Arniel is taking winning over beauty points.

The Jets with Stanley on the ice are usually against what level of players? Who is in net for us vs on average for the other team against said level of players?

Do you find Stanley as a catalyst for offense to generate shots, chances or goals for?

Using gf% or xgf% for individual dmen, when for the non-elite ones can be extremely fwd driven measures, might be one of the more disingenuous uses of stats.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

My take is they wanted to make room for Samberg to move up to the top 4 and then it is a decision of making Dillion a highly paid #3 in his declining years. This season it is probably worth it, but how about a couple years down the line?

I'm not really advocating keeping Dillon. I was not unhappy seeing him go. I think it was creating a spot for Heinola. That hasn't happened, for whatever reasons.

 

[voyageur]

Agreed Stanley has made it to the HFBoard Jets HOF of whipping boys joining the likes of Pavs, Thorburn and Stuart.

Honourable mention to Beaulieu, Kuhlman, Chiarot was not popular here either, largely seen as a puck moving problem and an obstacle to Niku's development ark. Little got shit on a lot too, especially in the Ehlers-Laine years, and Tylers Myers too, in the Joe Morrow era. But that is the HF way, that all PMD defensemen are good, Enstrom, Postma, Niku, Heinola, and PKers are irrelevant, unless they have some kind of Samberg like overall impact. Toughness is a non measurable quality, so almost an afterthought.

Just from my eye test, Demelo has been worse than Stanley recently (I realize there's probably a disparity in QoC tho)

Compared to the rest of the D, Stanley leads in GF% (except for Heinola who has a relatively small sample size - but has also been paired with Stanley, which is weird) and his xGF% is only behind JoMo

So are we only using those metrics to bash the top line and heap praise on Ehlers? Are we gonna "well, yeah BUT..." them? Or maybe do we need to ask ourselves whether or not Stanley *just might* be not as bad as we've led ourselves to believe?

Just random stat watching I notice De Melo's Corsi has gone from the 43s to 46s in recent weeks, and Morrissey is on an incline too, so there are probably some supporting stats that say they are the steadiest pairing since Samberg went down, as Pionk's numbers have plummetted conversely.

Stanley is down there for shots against, so the stats are probably true. His PKing metrics still haven't reached Miller's depths, but he's going backwards. Most people think he is the weakest link, and it's probably true. But if the Jets can win with him, there should be some hope that they can play even better without him.

 

[abax44]

It wouldn't shock me to see Stanley and/or Heinola shipped off at the deadline

Might as well move one/both.

 

[Wpgpage]

As long as he would agree, I would pay a pretty strong price to get him here.

In a way, I would prefer the younger Andersson, but Weegar is locked up for 6 years after this one at a reasonable cap hit. Andersson could go to market after next year or demand a lot more money to extend.

We would then be free to let Pionk walk. The right side could be Weegar, Salomonsson, DeMelo.
JMo - Weegar
Samberg - Salomonsson
Fleury/Heinola/Stanley - DeMelo
is a pretty nice D corps.

If we are lucky Flames want Stan as part of the return for Weegar because, 6'7.

I don't think Calgary would move Weager to us without getting Salo back in return.

 

[Whileee]

I think we already have a perfectly decent 3LD already in Fleury and maybe Heinola is better again. He is still not getting much of an opportunity, paired with Stan on his off side.

DeMelo was never a true 1RD. He was adequate when paired with JMo. This year, he is less than adequate. Pionk started the year looking good, though some of his underlying numbers were still weak. Without Samberg he has reverted to the same Pionk we saw the last few years. Miller might actually be better than either of them.

Just because we have a couple of guys signed for several more years does not mean that our right side is set.

By all appearances we have a better chance of getting DeMelo or Pionk out of the lineup than we have of getting Stan out. The org's loyalty to him is irrational, at best.

I do agree that 3LD should be the weakness easiest to upgrade. I just don't see any indication that the org is interested in it. With JMo, Samberg, Stanley the left side is as set as you can ask for. On the right side, they probably want to upgrade on Miller.

Fleury confuses me. He is a rangy D with very good skating, and often makes good plays. But he also makes a lot of really puzzling decisions and mistakes, so I can see why NHL coaches have never really had that much confidence in him.

But I think the Jets' biggest need is a RHD for the top pair. DeMelo is not cutting it this season, and wasn't very good for much of last season, either. Morrissey needs a partner that allows him to play his game more consistently.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I agree I don’t want Stan in line up, but, sometimes the abuse he gets on here is nuts.

Yes, it gets overstated. Debate brings that out. So does frustration. He is our 8th or 9th best Dman but he gets played like 5.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Yes, it gets overstated. Debate brings that out. So does frustration. He is our 8th or 9th best Dman but he gets played like 5.

But I haven’t seen one person actually argue in favour of him except the coach. The ppl who are in favour of him are arguing he shouldn’t be in line up just that his impact is being overrated.

 

[KingBogo]

Fleury confuses me. He is a rangy D with very good skating, and often makes good plays. But he also makes a lot of really puzzling decisions and mistakes, so I can see why NHL coaches have never really had that much confidence in him.

But I think the Jets' biggest need is a RHD for the top pair. DeMelo is not cutting it this season, and wasn't very good for much of last season, either. Morrissey needs a partner that allows him to play his game more consistently.

And that is why Fleury is a journeyman 6/7 defenseman and not the top 4 he was projected to be as a top 10 pick. Lots of talent, just not quite the full package. Saying that he was a great UFA pickup on the cheap as he can fill in well as needed a little higher up the lineup.

 

[Cotton Eye Joe]

He has trade protection and a NY area GF. Great if he would waive but I doubt he would do that.



I'd pay quite a bit - IF he would come here.

We have Gluten Free in Manitoba too.

 

[LowLefty]

Agreed, Stanley actually shows well in GF% and xGF%. He isn't a CF% darling but interestingly neither are all of our best forwards, including the usual possession beast Ehlers. Bottom line is we score more with Stanley on the ice then we get scored against and he is a big physical presence and Arniel is taking winning over beauty points.

You probably don't see all the mistakes he makes because you're busy watching the hockey game -
You need to focus

 

[Cotton Eye Joe]

sergachev, who is younger and probably higher nhl tier/value went for:

C. Geekie (2022 11th overall)+JJ Moser+4th+2025 2nd.

imo, for pulock, perfetti+1st is a bit much in my view.

Moser is pretty good. And Geekie has good upside.

 

[Wpgpage]

Well there goes my Will Borgen idea.

 

[Thechozen1]

This is what I don't get. They are the best team in the league. Stanley has played in 21 of 33 games. Jets are 15-5-1 with him in the lineup. You can say that is because of all the other players, Helly, Morrissey, Scheifele, etc, and it's true. But if Stanley had such an overwhelming defecit, the Jets wouldn't be so good with him in the lineup.

One way to negate some of his defecits is by having Adam Lowry out there with him, who is a positive impact player. Negates defensive zone breakdowns.

I think the jacket he got against Boston was an example of how his teammates feel about him, and that's big, knowing you have somebody out there who has your back, and if you take him off the ice it isn't going to affect the performance of the team in any significant way.

I honestly think the dressing room likes the guy, which is what a team is made of. While you can make a team succesful out of converging personalities like Wheeler/Laine, Buff/Trouba, this team is different. I think from the outside they are still largely seen as fragile, soft, in the post Buff era. Probably softer post Dillon.

I am probably, like you, hoping for Stan not to be a starter in the playoffs, but for now at the least, any defecits he has seem to be mitigated by other players contributing.

Good points, but agreed, he can’t be a lock at 3LD come playoffs where even the tiniest of an error can decide or turn a game and or series.

The Jets haven’t proven able to outscore defensive lapses in the playoffs like the teams that have McDavid or MacKinnon. They need to play tight error free hockey and capitalize on the other team’s shortcomings.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

We have Gluten Free in Manitoba too.

Haha - Girl Friend, apparently now wife.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't think Calgary would move Weager to us without getting Salo back in return.

Well that would be a ridiculous overpay for Weegar just based on age.

Weegar doesn't fit Flames timeline and no one is going to pay that much for him.

 

[Wpgpage]

Well that would be a ridiculous overpay for Weegar just based on age.

Weegar doesn't fit Flames timeline and no one is going to pay that much

Ohh I can totally see someone paying an equivalent package. Top pair RHD signed for barley over 6 mil. His value is very very high.

 

[Flair Hay]

I'm not really advocating keeping Dillon. I was not unhappy seeing him go. I think it was creating a spot for Heinola. That hasn't happened, for whatever reasons.

Yeah that was the main justification that I heard when I brought it up last month that we made a mistake letting him go.

-We would be blocking Heinola
-It would be unfair to Heinola's development to have to play on his off hand
-The contract would age poorly

And these are all true. But when you take into account the other decisions we made, these justifications don't fly imo.

We are blocking Heinola anyway, with Stanley... we are forcing Heinola to his off hand anyway. We were trying to sign Monahan to a bigger money, longer term deal after the fact.

Our 3rd pair would be solid and affordable. We wouldn't be hurting the team trying to replace his physicality. And we would have a guy actually capable of filling in on the second pair in case of injuries.

It's water under the bridge, but the mistake of letting him go is compounding as time goes on here

Ohh I can totally see someone paying an equivalent package. Top pair RHD signed for barley over 6 mil. His value is very very high.

Absolutely. Just because he is 30 doesn't mean he loses value to Calgary. He is a difference maker on defense at a premium position. He is basically what Trouba was for us in his time here once he hit his prime. And under contract for years.

If a 2C is worth a 1st as a rental to us consistently, what is 5 years of a rock solid top pair RD worth??

 

[Flair Hay]

And that is why Fleury is a journeyman 6/7 defenseman and not the top 4 he was projected to be as a top 10 pick. Lots of talent, just not quite the full package. Saying that he was a great UFA pickup on the cheap as he can fill in well as needed a little higher up the lineup.

Yeah Fleury has been a really solid UFA pickup

I don't think Calgary would move Weager to us without getting Salo back in return.

Yeah that's a tough one but probably a fair ask. Can't see Chevy doing that. But Lambert makes a lot of sense. Even Perfetti is it was a straight up type deal.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Ohh I can totally see someone paying an equivalent package. Top pair RHD signed for barley over 6 mil. His value is very very high.

No, I don't think so. No one is going to pay that. Salo is just too promising. The odds are too great that you would be trading a 20 YO top pair RHD for a 30 YO top pair RHD. Salo still may fail to achieve that but the gamble would be too much.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yeah that was the main justification that I heard when I brought it up last month that we made a mistake letting him go.

-We would be blocking Heinola
-It would be unfair to Heinola's development to have to play on his off hand
-The contract would age poorly

And these are all true. But when you take into account the other decisions we made, these justifications don't fly imo.

We are blocking Heinola anyway, with Stanley... we are forcing Heinola to his off hand anyway. We were trying to sign Monahan to a bigger money, longer term deal after the fact.

Our 3rd pair would be solid and affordable. We wouldn't be hurting the team trying to replace his physicality. And we would have a guy actually capable of filling in on the second pair in case of injuries.

It's water under the bridge, but the mistake of letting him go is compounding as time goes on here


Absolutely. Just because he is 30 doesn't mean he loses value to Calgary. He is a difference maker on defense at a premium position. He is basically what Trouba was for us in his time here once he hit his prime. And under contract for years.

If a 2C is worth a 1st as a rental to us consistently, what is 5 years of a rock solid top pair RD worth??

No way Weegar is worth Salomonsson. No way, and it isn't even close.

There is no guarantee that Salo hits to be as good as Weegar. But he might match him already as soon as next year. There is also no guarantee attached to Weegar (or any other player you acquire). But he has probably passed his peak. He may not live up to your high expectations any more than Salo will. Weegar is under contract for 6 more years. Salo is under team control for 7 more. One guy is about to hit 31 YO, the other is 20.

I would give up some high potential prospects and/or some high picks. I wouldn't even consider that 1 for 1 for a second.

Whether or not Flames would part with him is another matter altogether. Flames have overachieved so far this year, but their slide out of a PO spot has already begun. They may be trying for more of a retool on the fly than a full on rebuild but he is still too old for any projected timeline for them to contend. They would be better off moving him for futures than hoping he is still a top tier player when they can contend. But that is my opinion. They may disagree.

 

[BoneDocUK]

No, I don't think so. No one is going to pay that. Salo is just too promising. The odds are too great that you would be trading a 20 YO top pair RHD for a 30 YO top pair RHD. Salo still may fail to achieve that but the gamble would be too much.

Agree with this take -- Salmo at 20 is already trending as a solid top-4 RHD who might soon be able to handle top pairing with a JMo without giving up much in quality over an aging Weegar, and hopefully develops into an impact player in his own right before too long. IMO you don't need the highest of high-end RHDs to support JMo -- just someone smart, steady and able to make quick reads to complement Morrissey's highest impact rushing game.

I also don't think the org has plans for a better Stanley-type D. They want the current Stan, believe in the current Stan, and are willing to move out maybe comparable or better talent like Coughlan (and perhaps Heinola at some point) even now in order to keep him in.

RHD is where the play's likely to be given current contracts and current contention-era needs I think.

 

[gojetsgo]

we really need a center to fix that 2nd line

 

[BoneDocUK]

we really need a center to fix that 2nd line

Agree, but we’ve needed that guy ever since Statsny’s first go-round in 2017-18. It’s the eternal TDL signing / 1st-rounder giveaway.

Yager looks to be that guy. Hopefully his time comes sooner rather than later.

 

[Flair Hay]

No way Weegar is worth Salomonsson. No way, and it isn't even close.

There is no guarantee that Salo hits to be as good as Weegar. But he might match him already as soon as next year. There is also no guarantee attached to Weegar (or any other player you acquire). But he has probably passed his peak. He may not live up to your high expectations any more than Salo will. Weegar is under contract for 6 more years. Salo is under team control for 7 more. One guy is about to hit 31 YO, the other is 20.

I would give up some high potential prospects and/or some high picks. I wouldn't even consider that 1 for 1 for a second.

Whether or not Flames would part with him is another matter altogether. Flames have overachieved so far this year, but their slide out of a PO spot has already begun. They may be trying for more of a retool on the fly than a full on rebuild but he is still too old for any projected timeline for them to contend. They would be better off moving him for futures than hoping he is still a top tier player when they can contend. But that is my opinion. They may disagree.

I think you are right about the value of Salo and agree he wouldn't be going anywhere

That said, the way I am looking at it isn't Weegar replacing Salo, it's Weegar replacing Pionk.

Weegar is just as good offensively as Pionk but is much better in transition and his own end. And for the same cap hit.

In this pipe dream we are bringing Weegar in, we would be bringing in a guy who is probably a $7M value dman getting paid $6M. That would be replacing a $3M value dman getting paid $6M. That ~$4M of on ice value is pretty significant when evaluating the value we would be willing to part with I think.