Speculation: 2024/25 Trade Rumours, Speculation etc Thread

[Gm0ney]

Wow, thanks for doing that. Must have taken a few minutes

So would we ba happy with results somewhere between McDavid and Matthews? Like +9 over the course of the season? That's similar to Dallas

If so, is it really worth all this discussion over one extra GF every 10 games?

Well it seems to be a bit of a litmus test. Teams whose top line isn't putting up a reasonably positive goal diff in the regular season are not really true contenders.

Of course the Jets did have lines that were solidly positive in goal diff. In fact every line with 80+ minutes (9 lines) had a positive goal differential - except CSV...which just adds to the WTF factor.

7 out of the 9 lines also had at least 50% xGF. The only exceptions being Iafallo-Scheif-Connor (44.2%) and CSV (35.3%).

It's just really weird that they insist on trying to make CSV happen.

 

[Buffdog]

It's just really weird that they insist on trying to make CSV happen.

I agree, which is why I'm so convinced that there's something we don't know that goes into the decision making matrix

 

[Gm0ney]

What do all these stats prove anyways?
To me you are missing one important thing .... the other 2 players on the ice. The 2 defensemen are very important after all if they can't get the puck to the forwards ... who's fault is it?
I not knocking Ehlers ... I like him but he made some terrible give aways but it does not show up on the scoreboard or stats because the other team never scored.
Mack and Rantanen are -7 & -6 and the Avs are 0-4 ... they should be split up right?

Well there was a question about goal differential and the top line or something...so I was just taking a look around the league.

And Ehlers' terrible giveaways should show up in the shot metrics somehow. Like if his terrible giveaways were resulting in narrowly averted disasters all the time, we'd see it in HDCA/60 or xGA/60. But he's better than all the 1st line forwards in those stats.

I'm not sure about the MacK/Rantanen argument you're making...is it that we should respect the larger sample of those two being overwhelmingly successful together over many seasons vs. making a decision based on a couple of games? I agree!

 

[JetsFan815]

Wow what is wrong with some of you people?
Jets are 3-0 but you would be happier if they were 0-3 as long as Ehlers is playing on the top line.

What I find amusing about posts like this is at the end of last season when the Jets has their shooting and goaltending driven win streak where the top line was underwater at 5v5, some of us raised alarms about the Jets prospects in the playoffs and these exact same posts were used as responses.

How did that turn out in the playoffs? Some really short memories here.

People can be happy with a 3-0 record yet talk about the obvious issues with the team that are literally blaring themselves over industrial sized speakers at us along with firealarms considering they are some of same issues that led the Jets to a 4-1 uncompetitive defeat in the playoffs

 

[Malcsta]

I agree, which is why I'm so convinced that there's something we don't know that goes into the decision making matrix

Might've been a clause in 55's contract.
Let me play with 81 or its a no-go

 

[LowLefty]

I agree, which is why I'm so convinced that there's something we don't know that goes into the decision making matrix

It's probably one of two things (that have already been covered)
55 wants to play with a shooter of KC's caliber - or - coaching is trying to create some balance in the top 6 by separating the line drivers.
Or both

 

[Buffdog]

What I find amusing about posts like this is at the end of last season when the Jets has their shooting and goaltending driven win streak where the top line was underwater at 5v5, some of us raised alarms about the Jets prospects in the playoffs and these exact same posts were used as responses.

How did that turn out in the playoffs? Some really short memories here.

People can be happy with a 3-0 record yet talk about the obvious issues with the team that are literally blaring themselves over industrial sized speakers at us along with firealarms considering they are some of same issues that led the Jets to a 4-1 uncompetitive defeat in the playoffs

So just to be clear, you think that it was the top line that cost us the Avs series?

Had nothing to do with Ehlers and Helle no-showing?

Also, you do know that ESV was re-united at the end of the season and it was a disaster...

Your confirmation bias never waivers

 

[FlappyGiraffe]

Boys we're 3-0 save some of this firepower for when we lose a game lol

 

[JetsFan815]

It's probably one of two things (that have already been covered)
55 wants to play with a shooter of KC's caliber - or - coaching is trying to create some balance in the top 6 by separating the line drivers.
Or both

I know from a source that Chipman has been told by his astrologer that 55 and 81 should play together to maximize Chipman's wealth due to Scheifele's rising Saggtarius combining well with Connor's rising Leo to bring Chipman's embatterred Gemini in alignment.

Probably as valid a speculated reason as any posted around here.

 

[gojetsgo]

So which 2C do you think the Jets will trade their 1st+ for this year?

if we do add at the deadline I think it has to be for someone with speed, I think we got slower after last years deadline and that really hurt our team

 

[LowLefty]

I know from a source that Chipman has been told by his astrologer that 55 and 81 should play together to maximize Chipman's wealth due to Scheifele's rising Saggtarius combining well with Connor's rising Leo to bring Chipman's embatterred Gemini in alignment.

Probably as valid a speculated reason as any posted around here.

It's as valid as at least half the stuff posted around here - validity is usually based on the fans perspective.

 

[voyageur]

What do all these stats prove anyways?
To me you are missing one important thing .... the other 2 players on the ice. The 2 defensemen are very important after all if they can't get the puck to the forwards ... who's fault is it?
I not knocking Ehlers ... I like him but he made some terrible give aways but it does not show up on theI scoreboard or stats because the other team never scored.
Mack and Rantanen are -7 & -6 and the Avs are 0-4 ... they should be split up right?

It doesn't matter. They will dig into anything to prove they are right.

Last year everyone forgets this conveniently:

Kyle Connor is set to miss 6-8 weeks with a right knee injury. Connor was in the middle of a career year, as he had 17 goals and 11 assists through the first 26 games of the 2023-24 season.

And the Jets had 16 wins at that point of the season. 34 points. Clearly the line combinations didn't work though.

 

[JetsFan815]

no you are talking about fancy stats that favor Ehlers, based on zone entry primarily, that don't account for his turnovers and weak easily stopped shot attempts.
When his actual production is below par and he has previously been identified as "Hard to play with" by memebrs of the team.

I agree because Nik is so fast that his body is 15 feet ahead of his brain...which often ends up in the big circle skate, a pointless shot, a bad pass or a crappy turnover.....

So yeah MAYBE the fancy stats point to Ehlers being "better" but the REALIty is #55 and #81 ACTUALLY put pucks in the net. on the ice for real. at an ELITE level not statistically generated "expected goals". so after a 52 win season where our TOP LINE was dominant. I wonder why everyone wants to break up a good thing because ...."spreadsheets".

No one is talking about fancy stats. The funny thing is the normal goal stats of the players being talked about are so bad that no one even needs to bring up the fancy stats. We are talking Goals For and Goals Against, the simplest stat ever. Ironically the only people bringing up fancy stats are those trying to defend this combo by trying to bury cricisms as "fancy stats, spreadsheets, Flux capacitor, quantum mechanics, Higgs particle" goobledigoo.

 

[JetsFan815]

It doesn't matter. They will dig into anything to prove they are right.

Last year everyone forgets this conveniently:

Kyle Connor is set to miss 6-8 weeks with a right knee injury. Connor was in the middle of a career year, as he had 17 goals and 11 assists through the first 26 games of the 2023-24 season.

And the Jets had 16 wins at that point of the season. 34 points. Clearly the line combinations didn't work though.

And what was his 5v5 plus minus during this period with all those points and playing in front of a generational goalie and an above average defense: +0.

@Gm0ney posted 5v5 plus minuses of top lines of playoff teams a few pages ago. Our guys when Ehlers is not on the top line aren't even close.

 

[Flair Hay]

Not sure about that. The development of Yager, Lambert, Chibrikov can offset some losses at forward next year. It's a position of depth. But that depth will be tested if the Jets lose all 4 of their UFA forwards.

Are we looking to offset losses, or get better? I'm hoping it's to get better...

 

[gojetsgo]

does anyone have a break down of the top line goal differential with each d pairing?

 

[Flair Hay]

Well there was not much of a debate when Ladd was the top LW, and Perreault became #2. Maybe we need to go back to simpler times, when the building was full and making the playoffs was a success.

We are not in Kansas anymore, that's for sure

 

[voyageur]

Are we looking to offset losses, or get better? I'm hoping it's to get better...

It's a fine line. You get into too many long term over 30 contracts, and you might inevitably get slower, more injured, and you eat up a lot of Cap with your veteran core. I don't think it's inconceivable to move on from Ehlers and improve. These guys coming are going to fight for playing time sooner or later. Where does it come from?

Do you think there is potential in any of Lambert, Yager, or Chibrikov to be perennial 20+ goal scorers? It's the timeline that development and free agency intersect at. What's the timeline for them to hit their peak?

 

[KingBogo]

does anyone have a break down of the top line goal differential with each d pairing?

You can go to NaturalStatsTrick and run it through their line tool.

 

[Flair Hay]

I agree Helly is right there among the top elite goalies in the league, but we compare favorably (at least in the regular season) with teams with other elite goalies with probably stronger overall rosters. And really how much can you shelter a 2nd line? On the road we would be very vulnerable to hard matchups. Sorry but to me this seems like an argument to maximize Ehlers counting numbers over overall team success. If anything we should probably look at ways at balancing out the 4 lines as a strategy for success rather than try and maximize the 1st line.

This has nothing to do with maximizing Ehlers counting stats, and everything to do with overall team success.

 

[Flair Hay]

It's a fine line. You get into too many long term over 30 contracts, and you might inevitably get slower, more injured, and you eat up a lot of Cap with your veteran core. I don't think it's inconceivable to move on from Ehlers and improve. These guys coming are going to fight for playing time sooner or later. Where does it come from?

Do you think there is potential in any of Lambert, Yager, or Chibrikov to be perennial 20+ goal scorers? It's the timeline that development and free agency intersect at. What's the timeline for them to hit their peak?

The point about over 30 contracts is well taken. We should be talking about freeing up space by letting go guys like Iafallo, Appleton and Namestnikov go as to make room salary wise.

 

[KingBogo]

This has nothing to do with maximizing Ehlers counting stats, and everything to do with overall team success.

So does moving Ehlers to the 1st improve us over our 4th overall finish last season? Or does hard matchups against a top heavy team with a weakend second line cut into our point total?

 

[Flair Hay]

In this whole debate my main concern is not how strong we make the 1st line but how weak do we make the 2nd line. If we put all our eggs in one basket we will become easier to hard match against and we play in a tough division who will take advantage of that especially at when we are on the road. IMO we have a much greater chance with a more balanced lineup that can all produce to some extent and then you rely on a Vezina goalie and good team defense to win more games than you lose.

That's the frustrating part. Connor tends to do better away from Scheif... no reason he couldn't do great with a two way C to help with the dirty work and a setup guy like Cole.

Or... if it didn't work? We could always go back to the subpar 1st line. It's essentially our 3rd line, how much are we expecting it to suffer with Connor vs Ehlers?

So does moving Ehlers to the 1st improve us over our 4th overall finish last season? Or does hard matchups against a top heavy team with a weakend second line cut into our point total?

It should be extremely clear that this means we could have improved on our finish from last year, yes! The math is staring everyone in the face.

The exact opposite of what you are worried about happened.

 

[Teppo Numenor]

The point about over 30 contracts is well taken. We should be talking about freeing up space by letting go guys like Iafallo, Appleton and Namestnikov go as to make room salary wise.

Cough. Iafallo because of his cap hit. Give us another line of lowry, apples, and ninoryder and we get more playoff success

 

[KingBogo]

That's the frustrating part. Connor tends to do better away from Scheif... no reason he couldn't do great with a two way C to help with the dirty work and a setup guy like Cole.

Or... if it didn't work? We could always go back to the subpar 1st line. It's essentially our 3rd line, how much are we expecting it to suffer with Connor vs Ehlers?

Problem is we don’t have a real #2 Center so basically you are forcing a 40+ goal scorer to play with a bottom 6 center. Does the increase of the first line offset this? And like I said previously this sets up for hard matchups in a tough central when teams don’t have to worry about a second line coming at them.