Speculation: 2024/25 Trade Rumours, Speculation etc Thread

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yup, they have stopped the bleeding and have turned things around a bit. They have a lot more work to do but I suspect we average close to 1000 more people a game this year and they continue to trend up in terms of season seats as the economy continues to rebound.

There appears to have been some recognition for the complaints people had.

I haven't looked in detail but I wonder if the part season packages also force STH to pay for pre-season games. If not, a partial season package becomes of more interest to me.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't think moving Ehlers to the 1st line and trying to play in 20+ minutes a night is magically going to make us a better team. Ehlers is frustratingly good to watch but I haven't seen him put up a long stretch where he is in that top 30 player in the league type,

Put it this way, If we lost Ehlers for a long stretch of time we are probably going to be ok but if we lose Schief I think we are in trouble.

You haven't seen him put up any long stretch where he was used in a role that might lead to that.

Even if Ehlers is the 1RW losing him would not be expected to be as impactful as losing our 1C. Vilardi missed 35 games last year and we weathered that storm. The likely impact of losing Scheif for any extended period is magnified by our lack of a true 2C.

 

[Malcsta]

My excuse is we are winning. I mean I can't fathom why we have to "change" things when we are winning.

We start to lose and lose a lot fine change things but for the love of the lord almighty if winning last season and starting the year 3-0 and here we are having this conversation about getting poor Ehlers the ice time he deserves because of stats or whatever, I am just done with it.

Like we could win the cup and someone will put in in a thread about how Ehlers only got so much TOI and his XGA was better then Scheif and Connor.

Right now this team wins because we play good defense, we have Helly and thats it and I like that. Give up the least amount of goals again this year and we will win a lot of games.

I have said from the start of the year if this team plays the same way it did last year and improves its special teams we will win a lot of games again.

mind you, if right now we are winning because of the D and helle, wouldn't it be an opportune time to play around with the forward groups?

 

[Buffdog]

so dumb lol. one of the worst things about traditional +/- and can actually lead to large swings.

one of my fav examples is tyler myers in 18-19
5v5 +/-: worst of the Jets Dmen
traditional +/-: best of the Jets Dmen, largely due to EN GF.

Interestingly, I've read that that biggest predictor of success of a team is goal differential at all stregths.

So I'm not sure why we'd throw out everyrhing but 5v5 for skaters. Especially when you consider that special teams have more goals scored per minute than 5v5 - so they make up less game time, but have a disproportionately high influence on the outcomes of games vs 5v5

 

[DRW204]

Interestingly, I've read that that biggest predictor of success of a team is goal differential at all stregths.

So I'm not sure why we'd throw out everyrhing but 5v5 for skaters. Especially when you consider that special teams have more goals scored per minute than 5v5 - so they make up less game time, but have a disproportionately high influence on the outcomes of games vs 5v5

Yes I can see that as the reasoning or influencer for team wins. but traditional +/- is not the same as all strengths either.

And ppl don't include all strengths on an individual-basis bc it skews players who pp and don't pk and vice versa. No disagreement that being efficient on the PP is paramount but that's independent of a teams 4 lines formulation (which is 5v5 gameplay-the discussion that has taken over this thread)

 

[KingBogo]

It will never cease to amaze me how someone looked at the term "Even Strength" and decided that we should include a situation where one of the teams doesn't have 6 skaters on the ice and the other has 5.

I mean, sure, technically including the goalie it's the same number of players on the ice, but can't we just not?

I guess you could lobby the NHL to change the way they count stats? The thing is when you are 6-5 the team with 5 skaters scores far more often with the team with 6 skaters. It is detrimental in most situations stats wise to be out their with 6 skaters.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

The problem with that is we don't have a backup.

Now if we ran this simulation with a league average starter that would be fair.

I'm sure for that length of time, Chevy would go out and acquire just that. But let's say he doesn't or can't. I still think that would be fair because the purpose of this scenario is to show whether Chevy is the brilliant team builder that some here make him out to be, or did his ass get saved because he lucked into Helly. And make no mistake, it was just blind, stupid luck. Helly appeared on the Jets radar because he happened to be playing against the goalie our scouts were actually there to watch. And then to get him in the 5th round? And the fact that no other goalie we've acquired through draft or trade or free agency has even come close to being above average at the NHL level? Nope, this was horseshoes up Chevy's ass all the way.

 

[Gm0ney]

In my mind, here are a few reasonable, non conspiracy theory arguments:

• He just can't manage more than the minutes he's getting (this could be supported by how he gets off the ice first, and his health issues in his career)
• Many coaches so far do not want to accept the risk in his game (though he has great stats, situationally in isolation if you are up a goal, one of his high risk passes could end up in our net and potentially lead to a loss)
• The team has statistics that are either not being used by the fandom, or they put weight on other metrics more than what the stats guys do.
• BONUS REASON: They want all our players playing the same way, to form unity, reinforce the system, and ensure plug and play up and down the lines

Anyone want to take a shot at a honest, as unbiased as possible stab at the answer?

• Maybe his shifts are shorter because the Jets are less likely to be hemmed in when Ehlers is out there and so he gets the opportunity to change - whereas Scheifele and Connor often don't get the chance to change on time since they can get stuck in their own end for long shifts.
  
  
• For the situational risk thing...
  
  When the Jets are tied at 5v5 over the last 3 seasons and Ehlers is on the ice, the Jets outscore the opposition 63.53%. With Connor, it's 52.38%. With Scheifele, it's 50.39%. Ehlers has a higher GF/60 and a lower GA/60 than either of those guys.
  
  When the Jets are up 1 at 5v5, last 3 seasons and Ehlers is on the ice, the Jets outscore the opposition 59.62%. With Connor, it's 53.23%. With Scheif it's 50.77%. And again, Ehlers has a higher GF/60 and lower GA/60 than those two.
  
  Ah, but when the Jets are down 1, Ehlers on ice...still leads in GF/60, but he's 5th in GA/60 and is tied for 3rd in GF%. Scheifele actually has really respectable GA/60 when down 1 - just 2.15 (vs. Ehlers 2.67 and Connor at 3.03) - but his xGA is the worst among the forwards, so it seems like that might just be good luck.
  
  Anyway, if Ehlers actually were more risky than Connor/Scheifele in any situation it would be reflected in the stats.
  
  
• I mean, maybe the team has some black box stats we don't know and they're making lineup decisions based on that...but this seems more like decision based evidence making than vice versa.
  
• Regarding the uniformity...I mean, seems like a dumb idea designed to not take advantage of individual strengths. Then again, I always said that Maurice wanted 4 Lowry lines (or a CSW line and 3 Lowry lines), so maybe?

 

[DRW204]

My excuse is we are winning. I mean I can't fathom why we have to "change" things when we are winning.

We start to lose and lose a lot fine change things but for the love of the lord almighty if winning last season and starting the year 3-0 and here we are having this conversation about getting poor Ehlers the ice time he deserves because of stats or whatever, I am just done with it.

Like we could win the cup and someone will put in in a thread about how Ehlers only got so much TOI and his XGA was better then Scheif and Connor.

Right now this team wins because we play good defense, we have Helly and thats it and I like that. Give up the least amount of goals again this year and we will win a lot of games.

I have said from the start of the year if this team plays the same way it did last year and improves its special teams we will win a lot of games again.

Lol what a cop out of a response to my OP. Just filled with hyperbole or reaches of projections on to posters on this board. literally no one has made threads of that sort, no one is arguing changing the 5v5 config of what is driving this team's wins - bottom-6 or goaltending. anyway you must've found it unfathomable then when the Jets moved away from a top line duo that went 19-4-3 (0.79 pts%) last year i guess. & yeah jeez great discovery and way to step out on a limb there that a team with the same goaltender, nearly entirely same starting line up as the team that hit 110 pts is expected to do well again.

 

[Flair Hay]

I don't think moving Ehlers to the 1st line and trying to play in 20+ minutes a night is magically going to make us a better team. Ehlers is frustratingly good to watch but I haven't seen him put up a long stretch where he is in that top 30 player in the league type,

Put it this way, If we lost Ehlers for a long stretch of time we are probably going to be ok but if we lose Schief I think we are in trouble.

That's fair point with Scheif. We really do have no one who can take on the role he can.

That said... we saw how we did without Connor last year when Ehlers was promoted.

Ehlers unfortunately has missed lots of time over last 5 years which is obviously a knock on durability.

 

[Jack7222]

Wasn't Ehlers our top line forward for a full season with ESW?