GDT: 2024-25 season game 38 LA Kings vs Tampa Bay Lightning @6:00pm 1/4/25

[King'sPawn]

Actually, I like it MORE with the depth of forwards we have......and he's double shifting the right players, Kempe, Byfield, Foegle, I think I saw Turcotte etc? He's not double shifting Kopitar, Danault (I think etc)

When Doughty comes back it makes the back 7 better, and the forward depth, I mean he was using Lewis and Moore to start with, then Moore and Jeanot, (not sure I liked breaking that line up but whatever, they won) I think it gives your dynamic players, more chances to be dynamic players

Good arguments for certain. As bland said in another thread, it also keeps the forwards more engaged. Since the biggest change to the system is moving into 1-2-2, it seems to be working.

I'm just concerned about the application long-term. There are many times there seems to be some disjointedness in the lines since they're often broken up. And we're seeing the effects as they're often hemmed into their zone. So, hopefully adjustments are made to correct that.

 

[lumbergh]

Kings have the 5th highest shooting percentage in the league, while simultaneously being dead last in slot shots and being near the top of the league in 'Long range goals'.

That doesn't seem sustainable. Neither is Kuemper's recent play.

You're probably gonna see some regression soon. P3 here we come.

The Kings have played 38 games already. What's not sustainable?

Kopitar had 3 goals and 3 assists in the first 3 games of the season. That's not sustainable. If he scored 38 goals and 38 assists in the first 38 games, that's a very large sample and says he's absolutely crushing it.

People misunderstand regression all the time. If you flip a coin and get heads 5 in a row, the probability of getting heads the next time is still 50%. If you flip another 95 times, your total will very likely end up around 50 heads out of 100. That's regression. Flipping heads is also a RANDOM event.

Hockey is NOT a random event. Darcy Kuemper's career save percentage is 91.4%. He's a very good goalie. Someone has to have the 5th highest shooting percentage in the league. Why can't it be the Kings? The Kings have gone 6-2-2 in their last 10 for a point percentage of 70%. You can say they're hot now, that's not sustainable, and they're due for a regression. It turns out that their point percentage for the season so far is 67.1%, so it turns out they've been hot for the entire season.

 

[Axl Rhoadz]

The Kings have played 38 games already. What's not sustainable?

Kopitar had 3 goals and 3 assists in the first 3 games of the season. That's not sustainable. If he scored 38 goals and 38 assists in the first 38 games, that's a very large sample and says he's absolutely crushing it.

People misunderstand regression all the time. If you flip a coin and get heads 5 in a row, the probability of getting heads the next time is still 50%. If you flip another 95 times, your total will very likely end up around 50 heads out of 100. That's regression. Flipping heads is also a RANDOM event.

Hockey is NOT a random event. Darcy Kuemper's career save percentage is 91.4%. He's a very good goalie. Someone has to have the 5th highest shooting percentage in the league. Why can't it be the Kings? The Kings have gone 6-2-2 in their last 10 for a point percentage of 70%. You can say they're hot now, that's not sustainable, and they're due for a regression. It turns out that their point percentage for the season so far is 67.1%, so it turns out they've been hot for the entire season.

But it happened last year (with a different coach), so it has to happen this year too. Don't you get it? The Kings suck because they've always sucked (except for the times they didn't). Make sense now?

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

Good arguments for certain. As bland said in another thread, it also keeps the forwards more engaged. Since the biggest change to the system is moving into 1-2-2, it seems to be working.

I'm just concerned about the application long-term. There are many times there seems to be some disjointedness in the lines since they're often broken up. And we're seeing the effects as they're often hemmed into their zone. So, hopefully adjustments are made to correct that.

That's more to individual f***ups than chemistry, trying to be too fancy, not getting the puck deep at the far blue line, etc, definitely work to be done, but as professional hockey players, they need to be able to play with anyone, and then when you see two that have definite chemistry you keep it together as long as you can etc

 

[Sol]

The Kings have played 38 games already. What's not sustainable?

Kopitar had 3 goals and 3 assists in the first 3 games of the season. That's not sustainable. If he scored 38 goals and 38 assists in the first 38 games, that's a very large sample and says he's absolutely crushing it.

People misunderstand regression all the time. If you flip a coin and get heads 5 in a row, the probability of getting heads the next time is still 50%. If you flip another 95 times, your total will very likely end up around 50 heads out of 100. That's regression. Flipping heads is also a RANDOM event.

Hockey is NOT a random event. Darcy Kuemper's career save percentage is 91.4%. He's a very good goalie. Someone has to have the 5th highest shooting percentage in the league. Why can't it be the Kings? The Kings have gone 6-2-2 in their last 10 for a point percentage of 70%. You can say they're hot now, that's not sustainable, and they're due for a regression. It turns out that their point percentage for the season so far is 67.1%, so it turns out they've been hot for the entire season.

I think the most concerning thing with the Kings is the lack of shots. They’re scoring but they're not shooting enough at all. The last time they had over 30 shots was against the Pens 12/17. And their average is about 26. They’re shooting the last couple games in the low 20s. It’s good that they’re winning but you aren’t going to win by not shooting and expecting Kuemper to constantly bail you out. It just doesn’t work like that. Like realistically they got outplayed by the lightning pretty easily and Kuemper stole that game.

 

[johnjm22]

The Kings have played 38 games already. What's not sustainable?

You could've said the same thing about last year. Was 31 games not a big enough sample size?

Teams have long runs all the time then fall off (or vice versa.)

I'm not expecting the Kings to collapse, BTW.

Kopitar had 3 goals and 3 assists in the first 3 games of the season. That's not sustainable. If he scored 38 goals and 38 assists in the first 38 games, that's a very large sample and says he's absolutely crushing it.

Kopitar was on pace for 90+ points. Nearly the best of his career at 37 years old. Yes that's probably not sustainable.

But you have to define sustainable. This doesn't always mean "falling off a cliff". It can just mean slowing down; a rate change.

Hockey is NOT a random event. Darcy Kuemper's career save percentage is 91.4%. He's a very good goalie. Someone has to have the 5th highest shooting percentage in the league. Why can't it be the Kings?

You have to apply observational and contextual analysis.

And notice I said "probably".

Kuemper has probably been the main reason for LA winning the past few games. Yes the way he's played is probably is not going to continue. That doesn't mean he won't be good.

The Kings have gone 6-2-2 in their last 10 for a point percentage of 70%. You can say they're hot now, that's not sustainable, and they're due for a regression. It turns out that their point percentage for the season so far is 67.1%, so it turns out they've been hot for the entire season.

LA is on a 12-2-2 run (.813 P%). Best in the league.

They're doing this without generating slot shots. Yes they're probably going to fall off to a degree.

 

[LeftKinger]

I think the most concerning thing with the Kings is the lack of shots. They’re scoring but they're not shooting enough at all. The last time they had over 30 shots was against the Pens 12/17. And their average is about 26. They’re shooting the last couple games in the low 20s. It’s good that they’re winning but you aren’t going to win by not shooting and expecting Kuemper to constantly bail you out. It just doesn’t work like that. Like realistically they got outplayed by the lightning pretty easily and Kuemper stole that game.

I’d argue that the most concerning aspect of the offense is the lack of penalties drawn and the lack of execution on the PP. 5 on 5 has been good but they’re not going to do anything in the playoffs if they aren’t able to draw penalties or execute on the PP. Theyve clutched a lot after long periods of nothing on offense. This is where I’m hoping the addition of Doughty helps. They can use PP alignments they’ve used in the past.

 

[Sol]

I’d argue that the most concerning aspect of the offense is the lack of penalties drawn and the lack of execution on the PP. 5 on 5 has been good but they’re not going to do anything in the playoffs if they aren’t able to draw penalties or execute on the PP. Theyve clutched a lot after long periods of nothing on offense. This is where I’m hoping the addition of Doughty helps. They can use PP alignments they’ve used in the past.

Do you seriously think doughty would help the PP?

 

[Bandit]

Missed the game. Congrats to the Salt Lake City Logo Assassin on 1000 games. Now please retire.

 

[Frolov 6'3]

Kempe is one sneaky son of a *****.

All these empty netters and with the game winning goal he just hit the ice.
Turcotte never saw him, see play behind the net.

 

[johnjm22]

I’d argue that the most concerning aspect of the offense is the lack of penalties drawn

In all my years as a Kings fan, I don't recall another stretch of games where the Kings had so few Power Plays.

The Kings rank 31st in total PP time. Which is pretty amazing because usually they get to playout the full two minutes.

They have 15 PP goals this entire season.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

In all my years as a Kings fan, I don't recall another stretch of games where the Kings had so few Power Plays.

The Kings rank 31st in total PP time. Which is pretty amazing because usually they get to playout the full two minutes.

They have 15 PP goals this entire season.

I think Evans mentioned it last night too, or the previous...something like 1PP a game for the last 10 games give or take

f***ing ABSURD to control play so much 5v5 and not draw anything.

 

[King'sPawn]

In all my years as a Kings fan, I don't recall another stretch of games where the Kings had so few Power Plays.

The Kings rank 31st in total PP time. Which is pretty amazing because usually they get to playout the full two minutes.

They have 15 PP goals this entire season.

But I heard the refs were biased against Edmonton!

 

[LeftKinger]

Kings have the 5th highest shooting percentage in the league, while simultaneously being dead last in slot shots and being near the top of the league in 'Long range goals'.

That doesn't seem sustainable. Neither is Kuemper's recent play.

You're probably gonna see some regression soon. P3 here we come.

I think the PP will improve with Doughty back and that’ll even things out.

Kempe is one sneaky son of a *****.

All these empty netters and with the game winning goal he just hit the ice.
Turcotte never saw him, see play behind the net.

I think I heard Turcotte in the post game say he heard him calling for it. Great play/pass regardless.

 

[LeftKinger]

Do you seriously think doughty would help the PP?

Not necessarily the addition of Doughty himself but the alignment going back to what it was from previous years. PP was pretty good the last two seasons. They are bottom of the barrel this year and they aren’t drawing many penalties.

 

[lumbergh]

Huge credit to Byfield and Foegele for playing great against the Lightnings first line.

Might Byfield be the the best defensive center to match up to McDavid in the playoffs?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

would be the most kings thing ever for byfield to shut down mcdavid

but a gassed old Kopitar and Danault get worked by RNH and Henrique

Might Byfield be the the best defensive center to match up to McDavid in the playoffs?

Honestly he might be the only one with the tools to do so. Kopitar is much smarter, and Doughty is one of the best shutdowners of the generation. But neither guy can even physically touch him. He's one of the only guys in the league who can just physically overwhelm anything our vets do. It's not the worst plan, that's for sure.

 

[Schmooley]

would be the most kings thing ever for byfield to shut down mcdavid

but a gassed old Kopitar and Danault get worked by RNH and Henrique



Honestly he might be the only one with the tools to do so. Kopitar is much smarter, and Doughty is one of the best shutdowners of the generation. But neither guy can even physically touch him. He's one of the only guys in the league who can just physically overwhelm anything our vets do. It's not the worst plan, that's for sure.

When they took the Oilers to seven games years back did they have Danault shadowing him? Maybe trying it with Byfield would be a good option because he skates so well.
The specific shadowing assignment may be better than just sitting back playing the 1-2-2 for 60 minutes clenching their cheeks.

 

[Sol]

There is zero chance Byfield gets McDavid duties unless Kopitar and Danault disappear. We know how the Kings get during the playoffs

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

There is zero chance Byfield gets McDavid duties unless Kopitar and Danault disappear. We know how the Kings get during the playoffs

25 minutes per game of kopitar chasing around a guy 40 years younger than him

 

[Sol]

25 minutes per game of kopitar chasing around a guy 40 years younger than him

Precisely. @johnjm22 pointed out some stat line regarding to Kopitars ice time being only a fraction less than last year. Think that come playoffs Hiller will go lights out on Kopitar.

 

[AbsentMojo]

Kings outplayed the Oilers 5x5 - I believe every series... not worried about 97 5x5 since the Kings have shown to be really solid defensively. In the playoffs, they just keep getting pushed in on the PK - now there is where you need someone keep up with McDavid. Kings - what were they - only 60% on the PK last playoffs? And of course the PP needs to make them pay for taking penalties otherwise theyll run them through the glass..which again the Kings are woefully bad at regular and post season. So there is no getting by the Oilers unless they address special teams.. and not for regular season.. everyone gets lulled into being good at the regular season and get shocked annually at the different style come post season. I believe the Oilers PK was almost perfect for 2 straight series.. they changed it up for the post season. Kings havent a clue how to do that.

 

[bouncesonly]

I need details if anybody knows lol

Heard the commotion and then someone said there’s a fight. Looked on the ice, no one’s fighting. wtf. Missed everything in the video but the dude was livid on his way up the stairs lol.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Kings outplayed the Oilers 5x5 - I believe every series... not worried about 97 5x5 since the Kings have shown to be really solid defensively. In the playoffs, they just keep getting pushed in on the PK - now there is where you need someone keep up with McDavid. Kings - what were they - only 60% on the PK last playoffs? And of course the PP needs to make them pay for taking penalties otherwise theyll run them through the glass..which again the Kings are woefully bad at regular and post season. So there is no getting by the Oilers unless they address special teams.. and not for regular season.. everyone gets lulled into being good at the regular season and get shocked annually at the different style come post season. I believe the Oilers PK was almost perfect for 2 straight series.. they changed it up for the post season. Kings havent a clue how to do that.

Hope springs eternal I guess but that adjustment is hopefully where Hiller comes in. At least on the PK. The PP is utterly hopeless at this point, I don't even know where I'd start with that.

It was absolutely bat shit insane how McLellan literally refused to adjust for several straight years and just got his shit kicked in over and over and over and I guess it's no surprise why his teams always choked

Like it's one thing to be arrogant enough to believe you just have to stick to your plan but it's another to have your village burned down 20 years straight and believe "no this is the time, we've got this"

 

[AbsentMojo]

Hope springs eternal I guess but that adjustment is hopefully where Hiller comes in. At least on the PK. The PP is utterly hopeless at this point, I don't even know where I'd start with that.

It was absolutely bat shit insane how McLellan literally refused to adjust for several straight years and just got his shit kicked in over and over and over and I guess it's no surprise why his teams always choked

Like it's one thing to be arrogant enough to believe you just have to stick to your plan but it's another to have your village burned down 20 years straight and believe "no this is the time, we've got this"

The stubborn Koala running the 1-3-1 down a goal late in a playoff game - im fascinated to watch him coach up Detroit - hope they make the postseason to watch him in action again. I guess you are right there is at least hope Mr. 11/7 will make proper adjustments.. I do think QB is part of the answer on the PK for chasing around 97. Maybe they should get Foegle as the other who can sort of skate w McDavid (not do edges with him tho) - to hopefully body him. Kopi and DD will just be cones against 97 we saw that for the last 3 seasons - I hope Hiller pencils them out of any direct assignments on him.