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2024-25 San Diego Gulls/Tulsa Oilers

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Mr Rogers said:
I agree. I think I’m one of a few around here who’s been grumbling about Madden for a bit. We just haven’t found any depth forwards whereas other teams have. And I’m not expecting a plethora of them, just 1 or 2 would’ve gone a long way.

Madden has only made 2 impressive forward picks in his entire tenure IMO: Rakell and Terry.

Of course player development goes into this as well, but our drafting of forwards hasn’t been good.
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Palmieri.

But in general I agree. A lot of our prospects are playing over the heads in the NHL because guys like Comtois, Jones, Tracey, Perrault busted when they should be producing in the middle 6 right now.
 
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ZegrassyKnoll said:
I would say that top 6 is quite literally the definition of “booming”.

There is no such thing as a probable top 6 player anywhere after like pick 8OA
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Yes, if forwards with top 6 potential were that easy to find late in the 1st round, contenders would restock all the time. And teams in the mediocre midrange would never have problems filling out their lines and moving up in the rankings. But the reality is there just aren't that many scoring forwards available later in the draft.

And at least we do make good D picks all the time, which can be parlayed into forwards later. Many teams don't even do that. Plenty of teams out there don't have even one D prospect as good as any of our top couple of guys. The important thing is to draft SOMETHING well, and we do that.
 
It all boils down to the old maxim...always always take the Best Player Available in the first two rounds of the draft. If the BPA is a bruising center you take him. If the BPA is a scoring winger you take him. Never never never draft for need in hockey.

Teams that draft the BPA can be held accountable as well. If a team has a BPA philosophy and their picks keep busting then you know their scouts suck at ranking players. The Ducks clearly do not draft the BPA and they are paying the price for it. Worse still, it is impossible to hold anyone accountable for consistently having underperforming picks.
 
MMC said:
What does this even mean? I'm pretty certain the Ducks are selecting the guys that THEY think are the best players available when they're making their picks. There's nothing resembling a consensus BPA at that point in the draft
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Reading the comments of Verbeek/Madden going back to 2019 it has been pretty obvious to me that the drafting philosophy even pre-Verbeek was roster construction rather than BPA. And that's fine if you actually take good players. But history has shown that the players they've taken weren't/aren't good and there were much better options available for those picks. I'm actually trying to be generous in explaining why they've taken so many busts recently. It's just a bad drafting philosophy IMO.

Now, if you want to say they are actually taking the BPA in their rankings then history has shown that their rankings are crap. And that means they need to overhaul their scouting system. To me this is a key issue to discuss because the Ducks are committed to building through the draft...but if they don't draft well then we'll be dealing with a rebuild forever. Can't count on top 3 picks every year after all.

Who have they drafted out of the top 10 in the last decade that has made a significant contribution to the current team? Terry and maybe LaCombe and Zellweger (maybe). That's it! That's an awful record and I really can't believe anyone would (or could) spin it any other way.
 
The funny thing is, outside of Colangelo, Gaucher is the most likely to become a long term NHL forward on the Gulls current roster. Sidorov and Pastujov (who has been very good since coming back from Tulsa) are probably the next after that but both are longer shots. But I digress, I've posted a fair bit about my thoughts on Gaucher's projection, some people won't ever be happy with it and that's fair enough, but he will be an regular NHL player within the next couple of seasons.

Gulls had a pretty disappointing game v Bakersfield. Woeful first period, great 2nd period and woeful 3rd period. Defence wasn't great and Buteyets looked overrawed in his AHL debut, not great lateral movement in the crease and rebound control was average at best.

Colangelo 1+1
Gaucher 1+0
Pastujov 0+2
Sidorov 0+1

Dionico has returned to the Gulls line up the last three games and I thought he's been pretty solid. Hasn't registered points but has looked really confident skating the puck out of the zone and creating offense. Hopefully he can get back to regular games now as his skill is pretty evident when he plays.

Pasta keeps producing since his recall from Tulsa too...I'm a bit bias as I'm still a big believer in him but his skating looks to have taken a step forward (probably improvement still required) as he's managing to find himself with a bit more space and separation compared to last year so his skill has started to show. 3+4 in his last 5 games.

Lueanu hasn't played since 17 December, I'm not sure if there is an injury there or if it's just on the outer in San Diego right now.

Nesterenko continues to be a disappointment, bad penalties, bad turnovers and almost zero offence. I'd be surprised if he gets a second contract from the Ducks based on this season so far.

Still not a believer in McIlvane myself. Gulls don't have the best forward talent but the hockey they play is truly insipid most nights.
 
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mightyquack said:
The funny thing is, outside of Colangelo, Gaucher is the most likely to become a long term NHL forward on the Gulls current roster. Sidorov and Pastujov (who has been very good since coming back from Tulsa) are probably the next after that but both are longer shots. But I digress, I've posted a fair bit about my thoughts on Gaucher's projection, some people won't ever be happy with it and that's fair enough, but he will be an regular NHL player within the next couple of seasons.

Gulls had a pretty disappointing game v Bakersfield. Woeful first period, great 2nd period and woeful 3rd period. Defence wasn't great and Buteyets looked overrawed in his AHL debut, not great lateral movement in the crease and rebound control was average at best.

Colangelo 1+1
Gaucher 1+0
Pastujov 0+2
Sidorov 0+1

Dionico has returned to the Gulls line up the last three games and I thought he's been pretty solid. Hasn't registered points but has looked really confident skating the puck out of the zone and creating offense. Hopefully he can get back to regular games now as his skill is pretty evident when he plays.

Pasta keeps producing since his recall from Tulsa too...I'm a bit bias as I'm still a big believer in him but his skating looks to have taken a step forward (probably improvement still required) as he's managing to find himself with a bit more space and separation compared to last year so his skill has started to show. 3+4 in his last 5 games.

Lueanu hasn't played since 17 December, I'm not sure if there is an injury there or if it's just on the outer in San Diego right now.

Nesterenko continues to be a disappointment, bad penalties, bad turnovers and almost zero offence. I'd be surprised if he gets a second contract from the Ducks based on this season so far.

Still not a believer in McIlvane myself. Gulls don't have the best forward talent but the hockey they play is truly insipid most nights.
Click to expand...
As for Luneau, Defend the Nest reports that he got some illness: San Diego Gulls vs Ontario Reign - December 27 2024
 
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tomd said:
Reading the comments of Verbeek/Madden going back to 2019 it has been pretty obvious to me that the drafting philosophy even pre-Verbeek was roster construction rather than BPA. And that's fine if you actually take good players. But history has shown that the players they've taken weren't/aren't good and there were much better options available for those picks. I'm actually trying to be generous in explaining why they've taken so many busts recently. It's just a bad drafting philosophy IMO.

Now, if you want to say they are actually taking the BPA in their rankings then history has shown that their rankings are crap. And that means they need to overhaul their scouting system. To me this is a key issue to discuss because the Ducks are committed to building through the draft...but if they don't draft well then we'll be dealing with a rebuild forever. Can't count on top 3 picks every year after all.

Who have they drafted out of the top 10 in the last decade that has made a significant contribution to the current team? Terry and maybe LaCombe and Zellweger (maybe). That's it! That's an awful record and I really can't believe anyone would (or could) spin it any other way.
Click to expand...
Can you please show those quotes that lead you to believe this ?
 
tomd said:
Reading the comments of Verbeek/Madden going back to 2019 it has been pretty obvious to me that the drafting philosophy even pre-Verbeek was roster construction rather than BPA. And that's fine if you actually take good players. But history has shown that the players they've taken weren't/aren't good and there were much better options available for those picks. I'm actually trying to be generous in explaining why they've taken so many busts recently. It's just a bad drafting philosophy IMO.

Now, if you want to say they are actually taking the BPA in their rankings then history has shown that their rankings are crap. And that means they need to overhaul their scouting system. To me this is a key issue to discuss because the Ducks are committed to building through the draft...but if they don't draft well then we'll be dealing with a rebuild forever. Can't count on top 3 picks every year after all.

Who have they drafted out of the top 10 in the last decade that has made a significant contribution to the current team? Terry and maybe LaCombe and Zellweger (maybe). That's it! That's an awful record and I really can't believe anyone would (or could) spin it any other way.
Click to expand...
In fact here is a direct madden quote…

On balancing fit against taking the best player available
Fit is a talking point. It is something we discuss as we project our young core into the future. But we can't be distracted from analyzing who the best player at third overall will be five years from now. That's our job. It doesn't matter if the player fits better or what we think will need three years from now. If he turns out to be the 10th best player or the 20th best player of this draft, then we will have missed...Obviously we can't just say that we don't talk about fit and that it doesn't influence a little bit on the decision making, but at number three it's not going to have a big impact.


So while yes he admits fit matters, it doesn’t seem to be the main factor, otherwise I don’t think we pick Stian with all the LHD in our prospect pool either.
 
TheDarkWingThatDucks said:
In fact here is a direct madden quote…

On balancing fit against taking the best player available
Fit is a talking point. It is something we discuss as we project our young core into the future. But we can't be distracted from analyzing who the best player at third overall will be five years from now. That's our job. It doesn't matter if the player fits better or what we think will need three years from now. If he turns out to be the 10th best player or the 20th best player of this draft, then we will have missed...Obviously we can't just say that we don't talk about fit and that it doesn't influence a little bit on the decision making, but at number three it's not going to have a big impact.


So while yes he admits fit matters, it doesn’t seem to be the main factor, otherwise I don’t think we pick Stian with all the LHD in our prospect pool either.
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Here is another quote from (the same?) Derek Lee interview where he admits they have drafted for need in the past (twice is what he'll admit to):

(General manager Pat Verbeek) talked about what he wants for the parent club, the top roster. But organizationally, what needs are you guys looking to fill, whether it’s through free agency, trades or the draft?
In terms of needs through the draft––I think I said it last year, I’ll say it again this year––we went in that direction twice in the last 10 years and it didn’t work out for us. Those picks were forced and five years later, I’m not even sure it would have addressed the need we have at this time. So we’re going to go with the old boring way and say that we’re going to go with the best player available according to our opinion and our projection. Then, hopefully, it gives Pat some flexibility down the road to make trades like he did this year, using Jamie (Drysdale) to acquire Cutter (Gauthier). If we can help in that way, we’ll have done our jobs.
________
 
tomd said:
Here is another quote from (the same?) Derek Lee interview where he admits they have drafted for need in the past (twice is what he'll admit to):

(General manager Pat Verbeek) talked about what he wants for the parent club, the top roster. But organizationally, what needs are you guys looking to fill, whether it’s through free agency, trades or the draft?
In terms of needs through the draft––I think I said it last year, I’ll say it again this year––we went in that direction twice in the last 10 years and it didn’t work out for us. Those picks were forced and five years later, I’m not even sure it would have addressed the need we have at this time. So we’re going to go with the old boring way and say that we’re going to go with the best player available according to our opinion and our projection. Then, hopefully, it gives Pat some flexibility down the road to make trades like he did this year, using Jamie (Drysdale) to acquire Cutter (Gauthier). If we can help in that way, we’ll have done our jobs.
________
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Yeah and it sounds like Martin wasn’t a fan of doing that. And it sounds like Verbeek isn’t a fan of that. So to me, it sounds like GMBM was the guy deciding to do that.
 
tomd said:
Here is another quote from (the same?) Derek Lee interview where he admits they have drafted for need in the past (twice is what he'll admit to):

(General manager Pat Verbeek) talked about what he wants for the parent club, the top roster. But organizationally, what needs are you guys looking to fill, whether it’s through free agency, trades or the draft?
In terms of needs through the draft––I think I said it last year, I’ll say it again this year––we went in that direction twice in the last 10 years and it didn’t work out for us. Those picks were forced and five years later, I’m not even sure it would have addressed the need we have at this time. So we’re going to go with the old boring way and say that we’re going to go with the best player available according to our opinion and our projection. Then, hopefully, it gives Pat some flexibility down the road to make trades like he did this year, using Jamie (Drysdale) to acquire Cutter (Gauthier). If we can help in that way, we’ll have done our jobs.
________
Click to expand...

I'll guess it was the 2016 and 2017 drafts. That was when we started drafting a multitude of forwards and not addressing a balanced draft with defensemen.

2018 wasn't a balanced draft, but we did find success in Lundy and Dostal. BO was a longer term project, but Verbeek made BO a full time NHL'er when he still wasn't ready yet and then let him go after last season. BO is a good AHL'er and could use him in San Diego as that bridge for our youths. He's currently 2nd in scoring for the AHL Hartford Wolfpack for the NYR.
 
Hockey Duckie said:
I'll guess it was the 2016 and 2017 drafts. That was when we started drafting a multitude of forwards and not addressing a balanced draft with defensemen.

2018 wasn't a balanced draft, but we did find success in Lundy and Dostal.
Click to expand...

2017 was a total whiff ... but then, we had very few picks, and the first pick not until #50. So kind of a pass.

Look, when it comes to drafting, if you want to be a contending team you gotta hit home runs (plural) and a bunch of other hits. One home run makes up for a bunch of whiffs in a draft ... you get one stud and a bunch of nothing one year, that's still a good draft. Of course, if all you do is hit a few home runs but not a lot of base hits, you end up with a top heavy team that makes the playoffs but loses every year. If, like us, you get a bunch of base hits but no home runs, you can't climb out of the cellar until you accumulate a zillion hits.

I think there's a good chance Dostal will turn out to be a home run pick. We also hope Carlsson is one, plus at least one of the young D. If that happens, and the others become a mix of triples, doubles, and singles ... we'll be good. If we only end up with one HR and a bunch of base hits, this rebuild could yield a playoff team, but not a contender.
 
FiveTacos said:
2017 was a total whiff ... but then, we had very few picks, and the first pick not until #50. So kind of a pass.

Look, when it comes to drafting, if you want to be a contending team you gotta hit home runs (plural) and a bunch of other hits. One home run makes up for a bunch of whiffs in a draft ... you get one stud and a bunch of nothing one year, that's still a good draft. Of course, if all you do is hit a few home runs but not a lot of base hits, you end up with a top heavy team that makes the playoffs but loses every year. If, like us, you get a bunch of base hits but no home runs, you can't climb out of the cellar until you accumulate a zillion hits.

I think there's a good chance Dostal will turn out to be a home run pick. We also hope Carlsson is one, plus at least one of the young D. If that happens, and the others become a mix of triples, doubles, and singles ... we'll be good. If we only end up with one HR and a bunch of base hits, this rebuild could yield a playoff team, but not a contender.
Click to expand...

You want to hit on both HR and base hits (singles, doubles, or triples). You can get out from the basement or sustain a playoff window with several base hits. We have traded drafted goalies and d-men for more assets or NHL'ers such as Pronger and Rico. But having more base hits means you can absorb injuries and not have a significant drop off.

I didn't like going full forward biased between the 2016-18 drafts because it removed base hits and potential HR's by not drafting defensemen in the first two rounds in all three drafts. D Shea Theodore was a HR pick at pick 26 in the 2013 draft, but it took time for that to happen at the NHL level. We drafted two d-men in three drafts in Rd 3 (2016) and Rd 6 (2018), with one of them converting to forward.

Before the 2016 draft, we were known for drafting d-men and goalies. We strayed away from our strengths between 2016-2018 without d-men in the first two rounds and 2016-17 without goalies in the first three rounds. Anaheim lost out of no base hits in two drafts, 2016-17.

In 2003, we had two HRs in Kariya and Jiggy, but Jiggy was a superstar that season. The rest were all base hits. We lost in game 7 of the Stanley Cup finals with our rag tag of a pirate crew and lone superstar.


We have two HR picks in RW Terry and G Dostal (although, he does need better game to game stamina). We had a third HR pick in C Zegras until Cronin showed up. We currently own a lot of base hits that could potentially turn into a HR in C Carlsson, C Mac, LW Cutter, and RW Sennecke with RW Colangelo a potential base hit if put into a top-6 spot in the NHL; at defense, we have an overabundance of talents that we probably need tiers for them; at goal behind Dostal could be base hits in Clang, Clara, and Suchanek. Suchanek might be a find, but too bad his injury/surgery made him lose a whole year this season.

  • D-men Tiers
    • Tier 1: NHL to NHL fringe
      • RD Helleson
      • LD/RD LaCombe
      • RD Luneau
      • LD Minty
      • LD/RD Zell
    • Tier 2: AHL/NCAA/Euro men's
      • LD Dionicio
      • LD/RD Hinds
      • RD Moore
      • LD Solberg
    • Tier 3: Juniors (NA and Euro)
      • LD T. Smith
      • LD Uljanskis

    The more base hits we get at defense and goal, the higher trade value we possess in acquiring higher level NHL talent. LaCombe might be turning into a double or triple base hit in his NHL sophomore season. In his last 22 games, LaCombe has 6g + 7a = 13 pts (0.59 ppg), a +7 rating, 17 hits, and 37 blocks. It's still a short sample for LaCombe and all of our youth d-men, but our NHL to NHL fringe d-men look promising. I'd like to keep Solberg in the SHL for another season to continue his development at playing better controlled defense and offense (he had a 4-point game in his last outing!).
 
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WhatTheDuck said:
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One of the few highlights for the Gulls who went down 4-3 in OT. Refereeing was diabolical.

Myatovic got a great goal in the 2nd period, it seems whoever is the 3rd man on the Gaucher-Caufield line always shines.

Mysak continues to look much improved and went 1+1.

Continue to wonder why Lucas is a regular on the backend for the Gulls, especially when already icing Hinds/Warren/Heatherington who are defence first defencemen....then the Gulls wonder why they can't generate much offense from the back end.
 
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Hockey Duckie said:
You want to hit on both HR and base hits (singles, doubles, or triples). You can get out from the basement or sustain a playoff window with several base hits. We have traded drafted goalies and d-men for more assets or NHL'ers such as Pronger and Rico. But having more base hits means you can absorb injuries and not have a significant drop off.
Click to expand...

A lot of our "volume" on base hits is still developing. Looks promising, but in a lot of cases we aren't sure yet if we hit a single, double, or triple with some of these guys, even the ones in the NHL.

And yes, a lot of base hits makes for flexibility and trade ammo. It's a good thing. But man we need a few home runs out of the bunch. If Carlsson ends up "only" a double our rebuild looks a lot worse.

Hockey Duckie said:
We have two HR picks in RW Terry and G Dostal (although, he does need better game to game stamina).
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My standards might be different. Terry to me is a triple, although if you're factoring in draft position then sure.

Hockey Duckie said:
We had a third HR pick in C Zegras until Cronin showed up.
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If Zegras becomes a good 2c I consider that in the double/triple category.
 
FiveTacos said:
A lot of our "volume" on base hits is still developing. Looks promising, but in a lot of cases we aren't sure yet if we hit a single, double, or triple with some of these guys, even the ones in the NHL.

And yes, a lot of base hits makes for flexibility and trade ammo. It's a good thing. But man we need a few home runs out of the bunch. If Carlsson ends up "only" a double our rebuild looks a lot worse.



My standards might be different. Terry to me is a triple, although if you're factoring in draft position then sure.



If Zegras becomes a good 2c I consider that in the double/triple category.
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Guess Kariya wouldn't be a HR with your standards under Cronin either. Either way, the point stands that there is a possibility to getting out of the basement with one HR player (Jiggy at that time) and a bunch of base hits, but I don't know if Cronin's offense can consistently provide that punch.

We were out of the basement and in the playoff hunt in 2021-22 season prior to Verbeek being hired at all-star break. Verbeek sat on his hands while Manson was out 14 out of 16 games (or something like that) when Manson went on IR during All-star break. Verbeek got rid of four players at the TDL, which he calls blowing up the team. That 2021-22 team did have one HR talent on it (Lindholm; Getz wasn't his prime any longer), but it was beyond the basement level prior to the TDL and in playoff contention. That is when coaching matters and talented roster depth.

We have more offensive and defensive talent depth on this year's team than the 2021-22 team. We have the goalies and defense to get out of the cellar. The problem is our offensive scheme is reliant upon herculean individual efforts to put up 3 or more goals for the past two seasons. I denoted this after last season that our GA vastly improved, but our GF, especially at 5v5, was meager. Yet, we only managed to earn one more team point.

1735857979077.png


1735857950965.png


Cronin's inability to generate offense is a consistent problem. Thank goodness for our goalies standing on their heads We have the second highest High Danger Scoring Chances Against (HDCA) at 388 HDCA, but our HD goals against (HDGA) is 25th at 42 HDGA, according to Natural Stat Trick at 5v5 situations this season.
 
We had a game last night (Jan 5th) and didn't realize it. Gulls lost 2-3 in OT. The goal scorers were Pastujov (7) and Goalangelo (13).

Since being recalled from the ECHL, Pastujov has scored 7g + 5a = 12 pts (0.67 ppg) in 18 AHL games. He passes up Sidorov's ppg rate of 0.65 ppg. Sidorov has scored 9g + 11a = 20 pts in 31 games.

Colangelo (or Goalangelo) leads the team in points and goals with 13g + 9a = 22 pts (0.92 ppg) in 24 AHL games. Sidorov is 2nd in points and goals on the team.
 
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Hockey Duckie said:
We had a game last night (Jan 5th) and didn't realize it. Gulls lost 2-3 in OT. The goal scorers were Pastujov (7) and Goalangelo (13).

Since being recalled from the ECHL, Pastujov has scored 7g + 5a = 12 pts (0.67 ppg) in 18 AHL games. He passes up Sidorov's ppg rate of 0.65 ppg. Sidorov has scored 9g + 11a = 20 pts in 31 games.

Colangelo (or Goalangelo) leads the team in points and goals with 13g + 9a = 22 pts (0.92 ppg) in 24 AHL games. Sidorov is 2nd in points and goals on the team.
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Pastujov being drafted 2 years before Sidorov I'd expect him to be producing better but Sidorov doesn't need to work on his skating as much as Pasta did so perhaps that is helping him more.
 
Pasta just keeps producing, and I'll keep beating the drum that I believe there is still a potential top 6 NHL forward in there.

Hoping to see Sidorov start to produce a little more away from Caulfield and Gaucher.
 
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