Speculation: 2024-25 Roster Thread

I just don’t know how anyone could look at this and not think it’s part of the development plan. Yes they will play more next year.

Barkov played 17 / 17 … 19 / 19 …. 22 / 22 minutes his first 6 seasons. And has been pretty 20 the rest of his career so far.

The vets were signed to 3 / 4 / 5 year deals to help shelter the youth, make it so they’d all basically accept bridge deals (to kick the salary cap can issues down the road), and as a lot of these deals are looking to expire, the kids will take the reigns.

This wasn’t some happy accident, we have plenty of cap space going into this season, with some money coming off the books.

$6.75 mil with McGinn and Fabbri coming off. Husso and Kylington another $5.80 mil. Lesson and Isac another $2.55 mil.

With the following RFA’s (Isac and Leason also RFA’s) to sign. Dostal / McT / Colangelo / Washe / Nesty / Helleson. Following next season : we have

Johnston and Harkins coming off with $ 1.9 mil, Gudas and Trouba with 12 mil.

With the following RFA’s …. Zegras / Leo / Cutter / LaCombe / Minty / Zelly / Moore.

Plus Sennecke and Luneau (who will be an RFA with Z and company I believe) in the wings.

Then after that year you have…. Gibby / Strome / Killorn coming off the books (if not sooner) with
$17.65 mil.

Rising cap and what not, we are primed to pay our young talent and add something without blowing up our young core, although trades will be made.

Frustrating as a fan yes, logical if running the franchise…. Also yes.
Planning for this current season I can agree with, but the failure to not make the obvious adjustments throughout the season and mid-game.. is just self sabotage by this staff.

Especially with their talk about wanting to play in more meaningful games
 
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Improved: Gauthier, Carlsson, Colangelo, McTavish, LaCombe, Helleson, Dostal

Average: Terry, Killorn, Zegras, Nesterenko, Trouba, Mintyukov, Zellweger, Gibson, Husso

Underperformed: Strome, Fabbri, Vatrano, Lundestrom, Johnston, Leason, Harkins, Gudas, Coaching Staff

Injured/Prospect: McGinn, Washe, Moore
To be fair, Nesterenko improved a lot relative to how he looked in training camp. At least for me the improvement was "I don't think he has what it takes to stick in the NHL" to "he should be in over Leason and Harkins" still lands him in fourth line territory but it was a significant jump in my book.
 
To be fair, Nesterenko improved a lot relative to how he looked in training camp. At least for me the improvement was "I don't think he has what it takes to stick in the NHL" to "he should be in over Leason and Harkins" still lands him in fourth line territory but it was a significant jump in my book.

I definitely debated where to put him. He improved from the previous season but not enough to fully claim a spot. I considered putting him in the prospect category too. I agree he could fit in that category
 
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I'm more interested in progression during the season, as opposed to overall grades. It's very different, for example, if Leo and McT had ended at 45 or 52 points by just being steady through the whole year, as opposed to struggling early then playing at a near ppg pace at the end.

It's not only about improvement either, it's the demonstration of the potential for top 6 production. It suggests the projected high ceiling is real. I'll take that over, say, Lafreniere's previous year where he had more points but never really flashed star production, it was just sort of steadily "okay."

From an individual player development perspective, I know we didn't get the total production or improvement from everyone that we wanted, but that's not always realistic. We did see legitimately encouraging signs though.
 
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I don’t have any problem with Helleson. I think he played quite well for his role.

I dunno if people just don't watch a lot of other teams, but there's a hell of a lot of dumpster fire types holding down D jobs in this league. Helleson's limited, but would be an upgrade for about a dozen teams in the league as their 3rd pairing RHD. Hell, he's probably an upgrade on the SECOND pairing for a couple teams.
 


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I don't buy this argument that it's all roster construction and subpar players. Don't get me wrong, this year's roster wasn't going to win a cup or even get past the first round even with the best coach on the planet. I don't believe it's all on the coaches but I don't believe it's all on the players either. It's a combination of both with a fair bit of impact coming from locker room culture (belief vs. Indifference).

Specifically, addressing some posts above me, I don't think acquiring Tkachuk (they just made the playoffs, they're not moving him anyway) alone will fix things and I disagree that a head coach's contribution is more or less deployment decisions.

Let's start with the defense. A lot of noise has been made about how a target goal for the club was to improve defensively. I broke it down in another thread and I'm not going to do it again to make this post longer. The team was measurably worse defensively compared to last season. That's with more injuries, more penalty kills, and a 20 game stretch the coach intentionally stopped coaching. How did that happen with a healthier and more experienced team? In my view, it's because the team lacks proper defensive structure.

That's x's and o's and drilling plain and simple. In today's NHL a team needs to play a well structured 5 man defensive system. It's not as much about individuals maintaining their assignments. I'll give two examples.

First the 2021 Canadiens. They wouldn't have even made the playoffs if not for the Covid bubble play in. They upset three teams on their way to a cup final appearance. The roster was low quality by any metric. They got as far as they did playing a tight neutral zone trap and a stifling collapse/one man press defense that looked to stifle chances so the last line of defense was Carey Price. Now I'm not advocating the Ducks should play NZ trap. That shit is boring. But it's still a defensive system that requires 5 man buy in and execution and the Habs managed to get a non playoff quality roster to take that all the way to the Finals.

As another example, less about applauding the VGK and more about using Bruce Cassidy as an example. In 2023 Vegas was one of the best defensive teams in the league. Yeah they had some good defensive forwards like Eichel, Stone, Karlsson, and Stephenson. But guys like Pietrangelo, Theodore, Hague, Whitecloud, Roy, Kolesar, Marchessault, Amadio, especially Howden, are not as good defensively as Vegas' system makes/made them look.

The point is a team can be coached to play good defense if there is good structure in place. There's no recognizable defensive structure in place in Anaheim aside from haphazard man to man press. With our personnel, I don't expect this team to be a top team or to be able to defensively cheat their way to a cup finals berth. But certainly with a coach who stressed defensive improvement I expected better than being the worst shot suppressing team in the league and having worse metrics than last year.

Offensively? The team scored 14 more goals this year. Considering we were much healthier and experienced this year and were a top ten team in PDO versus a bottom team last year, I don't really count that as a very meaningful improvement. And again, structure is an issue. We don't even need to touch the powerplay because everyone here knows what having the last place powerplay in the league means. The Ducks have three options offensively:

1. Counter rush and hope we outspeed the defense and successfully complete a pass without turning it over.

2. If a lane isn't clear to the net dump and chase, with 80% of dump ins the other two forwards are either not positioned to beat the defender back on the chase along the boards or they lose a body battle along the boards

3. When the team does manage to hold possession after a dump in the 5 man offensive set up manages to get set up, that's where there's no real structure. There's Carlyle era board cycle with poor board battling to keep possession, or kicking it out to the point or deep wings and either shooting and hoping for rebounds (which we almost never get to) or trying to jam passes through 2-3 defending bodies hoping and praying a pass squeezes through for a dirty goal chance.

Other teams are far more effective at cycling bodies and passes because other teams are more efficient and effective at passing than the Ducks. All of these things are x's and o's strategies and systems and game prep through practice drilling. The fact that it's subpar is a coaching problem and a personnel problem. But I'd argue it's more of a personnel problem because we've seen enough games where this team was actually able to execute properly to say it's not a lack of ability as much as it's a continuity of poor game preparation, systems, and structure.

And another big thing that impacts both is faceoffs. The team is dead last in faceoff percentage on the season. Faceoffs are coachable to an extent. Strength and reaction timing can't really be coached (though strength can be enhanced by the trainers) but repetition and drilling can improve performance. Maybe this group can't be a top faceoff team but I see no reason why they can't be average. Hell slightly below average would be a huge boom. Dead last is unacceptable.

Could a new coach be bad at his job too? Sure. But I keep saying it. Development time is finite. For some of these kids, they'll progress exponentially because they are naturally talented and adaptation through experience and physical development is inevitable. The concern is this is the time to set the standard for how this youth core should be expected to play the sport. It would be one thing if we missed the playoffs but saw measurable improvements in the team's performance and missed the playoffs, but we really didn't. We have plenty of evidence that Cronin is not good at his job. I have no interest in waiting for this team to start being a playoff bubble team with no real damage in the playoffs for Verbeek to finally say enough is enough, time for a guy that can get it done in the postseason.

This team still needs a culture change and they need a coach that can teach these players to play the right way in today's NHL. Two seasons in I am convinced that Cronin is not capable of being that coach.
 
The Athletic released it's recent Player Card, based off of games through Apr 13th. Here are the forward breakdowns. (I kept the Jan 15th rating to compare the Apr 13 productions.) Note: The Athletic chose specific players on their cards and not, say, Colangelo.

Line 1: Terry literally had to defensively babysit both Vatrano and Strome. It cost Terry some offense. I dunno if extending Vatrano was an ideal thing to do.

Line 2: That line had great gains offensively, but their defense took a down turn simultaneously. Huge jumps offensively for both Cutter and Carlsson. Maybe our C&C Music Factory?

Line 3: The Athletic lists Fabbri due to higher games played. Zegras improved his offense. Mac has the biggest gains out of all of the forwards offensively! The club needs to surround Mac with offensive wingers b/c he can drive the offense, but his defense is sorely lacking. It makes his line more of an energy line for scoring.

Line 4: Replace them all.


1744958883968.png




LaCombe supplanted Terry as the highest Net Rating player on the team at the end of the season AINEC. Both LaCombe and Terry have to carry around lugs, except LaCombe is doing the better job. Mac made a big jump to being the Ducks 3rd best Net Rating player.

1744958950524.png
 
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Here are the Defensive player Player Card ratings.

Top pair: LaCombe's offense and defense just kept improving to where he carried Gudas into better defensive numbers.

Middle pair: Minty had a some uptick in offense recently, but Trouba also improved. Sadly, we should be looking to replace Trouba because he not good at providing offense nor defense. That also affects Minty's defense... or there lack of.

Bottom pair: (No idea why they picked Kylington over Helleson.) Zell regressed between Jan and April. Kylington should be a 7D man who is stapled on the bench.

We need to replace Gudas and Trouba as our top two RD's. Both are better suited for the 3rd line.


1744961866337.png
 
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Right now I’m elated everyone made it to the off season without getting injured the last week of meaningless games.

Everyone, that is staying, should come into next year healthy and ready to go.

John

Didn't think about this, but it's a great point. Unless someone reveals an injury in the exit interviews, the team should be able to start next season fully healthy with a full summer of training for everyone. Hopefully, this means they'll be in good shape for the season.
 
Was looking into the season splits (first 41 games vs. last 41 games) and thought I'd share, in case anybody else is interested.

🏆 Player Stats (sorted by P/GP)

PlayerGPGAP+/-PIMP/GP
Terry39141933+280.85
Strome4171724-1210.59
Vatrano40111223-3260.58
LaCombe3481018+340.53
McTavish3561117-5220.49
Killorn4181018+4220.44
Gauthier4151318-1120.44
Carlsson358715080.43
Zegras244610-7100.42
Fabbri286410-5120.36
Leason345712-1120.35
Zellweger344812+2120.35
Nesterenko3101-100.33
McGinn26448+100.31
Mintyukov33369-480.27
Helleson19235-2250.26
Gudas4119100420.24
Fowler17044-760.24
Vaakanainen5011020.20
Dumoulin41088-240.20
Lundestrom39437-220.18
Johnston29134-1570.14
Trouba16022-160.13
Colangelo9101-500.11
Harkins28033-6120.11
Luneau6000-520.00

PlayerGPGAP+/-PIMP/GP
McTavish41161935+5160.85
Carlsson41121830+660.73
Zegras3381422-1130.67
Gauthier41151126+980.63
LaCombe4161925-3240.61
Terry3871522-2120.58
Vatrano41101222-6540.54
Colangelo239211+120.48
Killorn4111819+880.46
Strome4131417-2490.41
Dumoulin20268+460.40
Fabbri16246-180.38
Moore3011+100.33
Nesterenko17325-320.29
Zellweger28358-180.29
Mintyukov3528100120.29
Helleson37268+8220.22
Lundestrom40088-1080.20
Leason28055-1100.18
Kylington6011+140.17
Trouba37156-4380.16
Gudas40066+4440.15
Harkins34213-790.09
Johnston14000-1150.00
Washe2000000.00

📊 Team Stats

WLOTPP%GFGAPP%PK%Shots/GPSA/GPFOW%
1719539.47610312613.373.928.031.943.8

WLOTPP%GFGAPP%PK%Shots/GPSA/GPFOW%
1818541.5001141359.974.427.332.745.5
 
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Was looking into the season splits (first 41 games vs. last 41 games) and thought I'd share, in case anybody else is interested.

🏆 Player Stats (sorted by P/GP)

PlayerGPGAP+/-PIMP/GP
Terry39141933+280.85
Strome4171724-1210.59
Vatrano40111223-3260.58
LaCombe3481018+340.53
McTavish3561117-5220.49
Killorn4181018+4220.44
Gauthier4151318-1120.44
Carlsson358715080.43
Zegras244610-7100.42
Fabbri286410-5120.36
Leason345712-1120.35
Zellweger344812+2120.35
Nesterenko3101-100.33
McGinn26448+100.31
Mintyukov33369-480.27
Helleson19235-2250.26
Gudas4119100420.24
Fowler17044-760.24
Vaakanainen5011020.20
Dumoulin41088-240.20
Lundestrom39437-220.18
Johnston29134-1570.14
Trouba16022-160.13
Colangelo9101-500.11
Harkins28033-6120.11
Luneau6000-520.00

PlayerGPGAP+/-PIMP/GP
McTavish41161935+5160.85
Carlsson41121830+660.73
Zegras3381422-1130.67
Gauthier41151126+980.63
LaCombe4161925-3240.61
Terry3871522-2120.58
Vatrano41101222-6540.54
Colangelo239211+120.48
Killorn4111819+880.46
Strome4131417-2490.41
Dumoulin20268+460.40
Fabbri16246-180.38
Moore3011+100.33
Nesterenko17325-320.29
Zellweger28358-180.29
Mintyukov3528100120.29
Helleson37268+8220.22
Lundestrom40088-1080.20
Leason28055-1100.18
Kylington6011+140.17
Trouba37156-4380.16
Gudas40066+4440.15
Harkins34213-790.09
Johnston14000-1150.00
Washe2000000.00

📊 Team Stats

WLOTPP%GFGAPP%PK%Shots/GPSA/GPFOW%
1719539.47610312613.373.928.031.943.8

WLOTPP%GFGAPP%PK%Shots/GPSA/GPFOW%
1818541.5001141359.974.427.332.745.5
If you have this in a spreadsheet could you possibly show each player's 1st and 2nd half above and below each other?

Thanks.
 
If you have this in a spreadsheet could you possibly show each player's 1st and 2nd half above and below each other?

Thanks.

PlayerGPGAP+/-PIMP/GP
Terry39141933+280.85
3871522-2120.58
Strome4171724-1210.59
4131417-2490.41
Vatrano40111223-3260.58
41101222-6540.54
LaCombe3481018+340.53
4161925-3240.61
McTavish3561117-5220.49
41161935+5160.85
Killorn4181018+4220.44
4111819+880.46
Gauthier4151318-1120.44
41151126+980.63
Carlsson358715080.43
41121830+660.73
Zegras244610-7100.42
3381422-1130.67
Fabbri286410-5120.36
16246-180.38
Leason345712-1120.35
28055-1100.18
Zellweger344812+2120.35
28358-180.29
Nesterenko3101-100.33
17325-320.29
McGinn26448+100.31
Mintyukov33369-480.27
3528100120.29
Helleson19235-2250.26
37268+8220.22
Gudas4119100420.24
40066+4440.15
Fowler17044-760.24
Vaakanainen5011020.20
Dumoulin41088-240.20
20268+460.40
Lundestrom39437-220.18
40088-1080.20
Johnston29134-1570.14
14000-1150.00
Trouba16022-160.13
37156-4380.16
Colangelo9101-500.11
239211+120.48
Harkins28033-6120.11
34213-790.09
Luneau6000-520.00
 
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PlayerGPGAP+/-PIMP/GP
Terry39141933+280.85
3871522-2120.58
Strome4171724-1210.59
4131417-2490.41
Vatrano40111223-3260.58
41101222-6540.54
LaCombe3481018+340.53
4161925-3240.61
McTavish3561117-5220.49
41161935+5160.85
Killorn4181018+4220.44
4111819+880.46
Gauthier4151318-1120.44
41151126+980.63
Carlsson358715080.43
41121830+660.73
Zegras244610-7100.42
3381422-1130.67
Fabbri286410-5120.36
16246-180.38
Leason345712-1120.35
28055-1100.18
Zellweger344812+2120.35
28358-180.29
Nesterenko3101-100.33
17325-320.29
McGinn26448+100.31
N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Mintyukov33369-480.27
3528100120.29
Helleson19235-2250.26
37268+8220.22
Gudas4119100420.24
40066+4440.15
Fowler17044-760.24
N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Vaakanainen5011020.20
N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Dumoulin41088-240.20
20268+460.40
Lundestrom39437-220.18
40088-1080.20
Johnston29134-1570.14
14000-1150.00
Trouba16022-160.13
37156-4380.16
Colangelo9101-500.11
239211+120.48
Harkins28033-6120.11
34213-790.09
Luneau6000-520.00
N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
You are the man! Thank you. :banana:
 
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Was looking into the season splits (first 41 games vs. last 41 games) and thought I'd share, in case anybody else is interested.

🏆 Player Stats (sorted by P/GP)

PlayerGPGAP+/-PIMP/GP
Terry39141933+280.85
Strome4171724-1210.59
Vatrano40111223-3260.58
LaCombe3481018+340.53
McTavish3561117-5220.49
Killorn4181018+4220.44
Gauthier4151318-1120.44
Carlsson358715080.43
Zegras244610-7100.42
Fabbri286410-5120.36
Leason345712-1120.35
Zellweger344812+2120.35
Nesterenko3101-100.33
McGinn26448+100.31
Mintyukov33369-480.27
Helleson19235-2250.26
Gudas4119100420.24
Fowler17044-760.24
Vaakanainen5011020.20
Dumoulin41088-240.20
Lundestrom39437-220.18
Johnston29134-1570.14
Trouba16022-160.13
Colangelo9101-500.11
Harkins28033-6120.11
Luneau6000-520.00

PlayerGPGAP+/-PIMP/GP
McTavish41161935+5160.85
Carlsson41121830+660.73
Zegras3381422-1130.67
Gauthier41151126+980.63
LaCombe4161925-3240.61
Terry3871522-2120.58
Vatrano41101222-6540.54
Colangelo239211+120.48
Killorn4111819+880.46
Strome4131417-2490.41
Dumoulin20268+460.40
Fabbri16246-180.38
Moore3011+100.33
Nesterenko17325-320.29
Zellweger28358-180.29
Mintyukov3528100120.29
Helleson37268+8220.22
Lundestrom40088-1080.20
Leason28055-1100.18
Kylington6011+140.17
Trouba37156-4380.16
Gudas40066+4440.15
Harkins34213-790.09
Johnston14000-1150.00
Washe2000000.00

📊 Team Stats

WLOTPP%GFGAPP%PK%Shots/GPSA/GPFOW%
1719539.47610312613.373.928.031.943.8

WLOTPP%GFGAPP%PK%Shots/GPSA/GPFOW%
1818541.5001141359.974.427.332.745.5

I like the split tables with first and second half to compare the team and see who rose or dipped. Mac is a scoring machine, but you gotta give him offensive wingers. Terry did his best to carry Vatrano and Strome, but the babysitting took it's offensive toll on Terry.

The Shot Differential got worse in the 2nd half of the season and we gave up more goals against! Big kudos to our netminders for stealing several wins and points!
 
Looking at Colangelo's 9 goals, it got me wondering who is our best goal scorer per game is and it turned out to be Colangelo. What's amazing about that is in 11 games, Colangelo was put on the fourth line to simply grind in his first two call-ups. He played one game in a top-6 role when Terry had to go home for his baby. In that game, Colangelo scored a goal. On his third call-up is when Cronin finally affixed Colangelo to the 3rd line, mostly with Mac.


1745006495278.png


Verbeek and Cronin need to find a way to keep Colangelo pegged to an offensive centerman next season if he's our best goal scorer per game. I did the splits for Colangelo in 4th line role vs Scoring role. His goals per game rate is even higher when put into a scoring role. The team definitely needs "Goalangelo" with the NHL club and in a scoring role, preferably with Mac as his center!

1745007417685.png
 
Vatrano's and Strome's penalty minutes in the second half stood out, so I took a look at the team's overall stats.

PIMPIM/GPPen DrawnPen TakenNet PenBenchMinorMajorMsctG Msct
3398:1614914722135721
3929:33142175-335161630
 
Colangelo Should be able to POT 20-25 goals next year.. All the young stars we have should improve.. We need to get the Special teams fixed.. Thats # 1.. Thats what wins you games
 
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