Speculation: 2024-25 Roster thread

[robbieboy3686]

Am I the only one that would be liked to see nesterno Harkins Colangelo at some point, to see if they can reproduce some of the chemistry they had in San Diego?

Yeah, yeah, I know, they aren’t big enough to grind the way he wants the 4th line to play.

This will happen post trading fabri at the deadline most likely.

 

[Firequacker]

Am I the only one that would be liked to see nesterno Harkins Colangelo at some point, to see if they can reproduce some of the chemistry they had in San Diego?

Yeah, yeah, I know, they aren’t big enough to grind the way he wants the 4th line to play.

I wouldn't have been strongly against it, but I don't particularly want Colangelo on the fourth line. If he's going to be up he should be at least getting middle six minutes, IMO.
What I wish they'd done was bring Colangelo up to play with Leo as soon as McGinn went down, rather than putting Leason back there where he'd already demonstrably not worked. I know it was never really going to happen, but...

 

[Mr Rogers]

I also don't get the praise for the Leo/Zegs/Killorn trio. Looks like they've spent about 48 minutes together over 5 games and have an xGF% of 42%. This is while getting 60% of their draws in the O zone. Their high danger metrics look pretty bad too. What is driving people's good impressions of that line?

Zegras and Carlsson also spent a little time with Fabbri, and that line wasn't good either, although it was only for a few minutes. i got this info from NST.

 

[TheDarkWingThatDucks]

Am I the only one that would be liked to see nesterno Harkins Colangelo at some point, to see if they can reproduce some of the chemistry they had in San Diego?

Yeah, yeah, I know, they aren’t big enough to grind the way he wants the 4th line to play.

Love to see this too, but isn’t harkins the shortest at 6’1” ? That doesn’t seem not big enough, unless you count like physical strength.

Sadly I only see it happening if Isac is out long term, otherwise….. give nesty his shot at 4th line, save colangelo’s rookie season for “next” year and let him cook in the AHL.

If (which we totally should) we move Fabbri at the deadline, I’d love a little rotating door of Pasta / Sidorov / Colangelo all getting a chance with Cutter and McT (or Z) line.

When we move Dumo, we should call up Luneau and rotate him and helleson for RHD, give the 3 LHD every night work.

This is if we stay healthy too, which is unlikely. I could see Gudas getting a nagging “injury” or something down the last few games of the season.

I can see the next 5-10 games as a push to win with the veterans and Z back, if (when) we falter, trade Fabbri and Dumo …. And let the young guys play the last 25 games of the season as a “where the duck is our young talent at in their progression” …. Which should give Verbeek an idea of how to attack the offseason.

Besides throw all the money at Miko or Marner …… can we realistically afford both ?

Like which player’s are getting big raises ?

LaCombe and Dostal ? McT is bridged, Leo is probably bridged at this point unless he becomes a PPG player next year. Zelly …. Bridged ….. Minty ? Bridged …. Luneau … bridged ? Zegras, can he even get 5.75 mil AAV if his contract was up today ?

The only RFA’s on the NHL roster that need to get paid next year are Nesty / Dostal / McT.

Really just need to survive the cap for 1 year,
because for the start of the 26-27 season…

Trouba / Gudas / Fowler’s Retention all come off the books. (This is $16 mil we will have free)

Gibson / Strome / Killorn will all be in the last year of their contract, so can be moved with assets to open up cap space. The problem comes with ….. Vats will have 1 more year, and moveable at his cap hit probably without dropping assets. (This is $22 mil and change we can get rid of)

Zegras / Leo / Cutter / Zelly / LaCombe / Minty …. Will all be RFA’s. Does anybody here currently deserve 7-8 years at 7-8 mil ?

Is there a path where we can re-sign all these players and probably Trouba to a cheaper extension for under $38 mil….. if you get Vats or Strome …. Under $33-34 mil ?

That would be what

Zegras / Leo / Miko
Cutter / McT / Marner
Vats / Gaucher / Terry

LaCombe / Luneau
Minty / helleson
Zelly / Trouba

Granted I know this will NEVER happen, just curious if we could somehow make the money work, especially if we sign both Miko and Marner to Vats type deals ?

Because those lineup makes me happy, do ducks dream of webbed sleep ?

 

[Firequacker]

I also don't get the praise for the Leo/Zegs/Killorn trio. Looks like they've spent about 48 minutes together over 5 games and have an xGF% of 42%. This is while getting 60% of their draws in the O zone. Their high danger metrics look pretty bad too. What is driving people's good impressions of that line?

Zegras and Carlsson also spent a little time with Fabbri, and that line wasn't good either, although it was only for a few minutes. i got this info from NST.

I thought they looked better than their fancy stats, though not as good as the McTavish version of the line. I think a big thing that can affect perception is how effective they looked in the offensive zone, independent of what percentage of their time they were spending there. They were making plays and there did appear to be some chemistry, eye test-wise.

Another common argument seems to be that they produced together, and that's the part that's a little bit overstated.
Looking back at the line charts, it appears they spent four games together, including the one where Leo got hurt so not four full games. (Maybe there was a fifth game earlier in the season, I didn't look back that far, but 48 minutes for a top six line looks more like 3-4 games. Might've been together briefly in a partial change situation some other time?) They had an actual GF% of 66.7%, which is great, but what that comes down to in real numbers is 2 GF and 1 GA. For comparison, the McTavish version of the line had a much worse-looking 50% GF%, but in real numbers it was 1 GF and 1 GA over two games. That is literally a single bounce away, either way, from the McTavish line also having superior production—if you go by GF/60 the production is already slightly better with McTavish, 2.55 versus 2.5 with Zegras. The sample size is just too small to meaningfully judge the production, IMO.

I do think there's also a little bit of mythology that built up after watching multiple fourth liners be largely ineffective* in that spot. Zegras being on that line looks like a golden age when we're trying to make top six Leason or Lundestrom happen (I like both those guys a lot, but also, don't do that). After weeks of holding onto "it'll be okay once Zegras is back," it's pretty natural to remember that line more fondly than it maybe deserves on its statistical merits. Even if in the meantime they've finally found another option that looks just as promising if not more so.

*McGinn on that line was good for 2 GF, 0 GA, and 4.04 GF/60 in two games. Again, small sample sizes, but also, RIP elite 1LW.

 

[Mr Rogers]

I thought they looked better than their fancy stats, though not as good as the McTavish version of the line. I think a big thing that can affect perception is how effective they looked in the offensive zone, independent of what percentage of their time they were spending there. They were making plays and there did appear to be some chemistry, eye test-wise.

Another common argument seems to be that they produced together, and that's the part that's a little bit overstated.
Looking back at the line charts, it appears they spent four games together, including the one where Leo got hurt so not four full games. (Maybe there was a fifth game earlier in the season, I didn't look back that far, but 48 minutes for a top six line looks more like 3-4 games. Might've been together briefly in a partial change situation some other time?) They had an actual GF% of 66.7%, which is great, but what that comes down to in real numbers is 2 GF and 1 GA. For comparison, the McTavish version of the line had a much worse-looking 50% GF%, but in real numbers it was 1 GF and 1 GA over two games. That is literally a single bounce away, either way, from the McTavish line also having superior production—if you go by GF/60 the production is already slightly better with McTavish, 2.55 versus 2.5 with Zegras. The sample size is just too small to meaningfully judge the production, IMO.

I do think there's also a little bit of mythology that built up after watching multiple fourth liners be largely ineffective* in that spot. Zegras being on that line looks like a golden age when we're trying to make top six Leason or Lundestrom happen (I like both those guys a lot, but also, don't do that). After weeks of holding onto "it'll be okay once Zegras is back," it's pretty natural to remember that line more fondly than it maybe deserves on its statistical merits. Even if in the meantime they've finally found another option that looks just as promising if not more so.

*McGinn on that line was good for 2 GF, 0 GA, and 4.04 GF/60 in two games. Again, small sample sizes, but also, RIP elite 1LW.

Hmm I think that’s a good point. Yeah, the Zegras trio might have just been the best bad line until McTavish was tried out there.

I expect Cronin to ultimately swap them quickly, tonite even

 

[Deuce22]

I don't even like those podcast guys and I agree with them on Zegras. And I don't agree that Zegras' best hockey was with Carlsson. That started when he was FINALLY moved back to center.

Also, how about we not play Zegras at wing because he hates it so much that he even said to the media that he hates playing wing.

1) He hates playing wing
2) He clearly plays better at center

Cronin : Play him at wing

Plays him at wing because he doesn't trust him defensively at center. Cronin always thinks defense first.

 

[Ducks DVM]

I wouldn't have been strongly against it, but I don't particularly want Colangelo on the fourth line. If he's going to be up he should be at least getting middle six minutes, IMO.
What I wish they'd done was bring Colangelo up to play with Leo as soon as McGinn went down, rather than putting Leason back there where he'd already demonstrably not worked. I know it was never really going to happen, but...

I don’t think those three would play as a defensive line, that was my point. That was also why I said it wouldn’t work with Cronin

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Am I the only one that would be liked to see nesterno Harkins Colangelo at some point, to see if they can reproduce some of the chemistry they had in San Diego?

Yeah, yeah, I know, they aren’t big enough to grind the way he wants the 4th line to play.

I think that AHL line would be our energy line, if and only if Cronin doesn't tell them to only play the grind game. Verbeek did say he wanted to improve bottom-6 scoring, so why not? It really can't hurt our spectacular offensive production.