2024-25 Roster Thread #1: The Beginninging

[Lord Defect]

Deady, I don't know what the hell to say to this. That's not what tier lists should be. The whole point of doing it that way is to narrow down discussions.

I don't know what the NHL process is, so I'll just use the NFL ones. You grade everyone into buckets -- Potential Stars, Mid 1sts, Day 1/2, etc. And then you cross-check and sort out the tiers. They're not equivalencies. You can have players where you struggle to pull them apart, but if you have 8 guys on a tier, there's still clear separation between #1 and #8.

And what you absolutely do not do is draft for organizational weakness. You praise Howie for understanding this all the time and look how much closer and cleaner NFL projections are.

You can draft for organizational weakness but not how it’s being discussed.
If you see a glaring hole in your current prospects or recent draft picks and there are two players available that you like the one that fits the hole might get more leverage in the decision process.
But you don’t fit a need to correct now position with a player that may not be ready in 4 years if ever.

 

[deadhead]

No. It's the single best example of a trade we know is wrong since Rask for Nino. THEY GOT NOTHING EXCEPT A CHANCE IT'S BETTER AND PAID BY DELAYING IT BY A YEAR. Anyone who defends that trade has left reality behind. I don't care if they pick 1st overall, even though that's not possible.

They just had to get something. A pick swap. Literally anything. Then it's at least debatable and I'm not nearly this bothered.

What do you think an option is? A chance the value might exceed a certain level.
Do options have value?

He obtained value, not as much as you might wish, but still real value.
He got an asset with a floor value of #32 but a chance at a pick in the teens.

 

[Tripod]

Reminder....the Flyers decided to pass on a player they had higher on their own list because they didn't have a 4th rounder to grab the worse player.

Methodology

 

[JojoTheWhale]

What do you think an option is? A chance the value might exceed a certain level.
Do options have value?

He obtained value, not as much as you might wish, but still real value.
He got an asset with a floor value of #32 but a chance at a pick in the teens.

I cannot be any more clear on this. He received maybe nothing for delaying a pick by an entire year and did so because they thought they could predict the relative value of the end of next year's draft's first round. I'm not debating this with you because there is no grey area. It's a litmus test of who cares to think about historical precedence and who doesn't.

 

[Magua]

Reminder....the Flyers decided to pass on a player they had higher on their own list because they didn't have a 4th rounder to grab the worse player.

Methodology

Can we stop with Paul Holmgren? Briere has nothing to do with him, and it’s not like he was sitting in 2024 draft meetings.

*waits*

 

[Beef Invictus]

Position value (not team fit) is part of player evaluation.

Positions/players who are scarce have more value b/c they're harder to find (supply and demand).

Which is why big, mobile highly skilled D-men go in the top 5, they're really rare.
True centers are much harder to find than wings, so they have higher value.

Then you have goalies, who are in their own category, because they're both the most valuable players on a team, and the hardest to evaluate/predict - a lot of top goalies were mid-round picks for that reason.

As far as ties in scouting, each scout has their preferences, which is why they cross scout and then have group evaluation. Unless you have a super scout who is right at a far higher percentage than the norm (do they exist?), the literature suggests a group prediction is more likely to be correct. But that also means the consensus will consolidate around a small range for some players, and a wider one for others. When there is a lot of noise, close calls are meaningless, the difference is swamped by the variance (i.e. the difference in valuation is statistically insignificant in terms of predictive validity).

Please tell me that the insinuation here isn't that Buium is secretly not the thing he blatantly is because bad teams (The sort who passed on Michkov) didn't draft him earlier.

 

[Chicken N Raffls]

I'm just buckled in waiting for the "The scouts wanted Buium!" In a few years.

 

[deadhead]

Please tell me that the insinuation here isn't that Buium is secretly not the thing he blatantly is because bad teams (The sort who passed on Michkov) didn't draft him earlier.

People passed on Michkov partially b/c his team made it clear he wasn't coming over for certain teams, and he had a 3 year commitment. Not b/c of talent.

Buium isn't "blatantly" anything. The teams that took other defensemen saw a lot of his film. They didn't like him as much as other players. Doesn't make them right, but also doesn't make him a consensus top pick.

"Then time will tell just who fell And who’s been left behind"

All things held equal, teams value certain qualities at different positions.
Of course all things aren't equal, Michkov is slightly smaller than average, average speed, but that didn't keep him from being a top prospect.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

Can we stop with Paul Holmgren? Briere has nothing to do with him, and it’s not like he was sitting in 2024 draft meetings.

*waits*

That’s because Hilferty threw him his one bone a year. No other reason. No one in this organization values what he has to say and no one in this organization has working history with him.

 

[Beef Invictus]

People passed on Michkov partially b/c his team made it clear he wasn't coming over for certain teams, and he had a 3 year commitment. Not b/c of talent.

Buium isn't "blatantly" anything. The teams that took other defensemen saw a lot of his film. They didn't like him as much as other players. Doesn't make them right, but also doesn't make him a consensus top pick.

"Then time will tell just who fell And who’s been left behind"

All things held equal, teams value certain qualities at different positions.
Of course all things aren't equal, Michkov is slightly smaller than average, average speed, but that didn't keep him from being a top prospect.

OK. So to be clear, you are bowing to the assessment abilities and authority of the worst teams in the league.

Tell me, why do you think these teams are annually bad? Could it be because they are bad at evaluating players and thus building a roster?

Are teams who are bad at evaluation what you consider a strong authority on player evaluation?

If you're going to appeal to authority, at least tell me why I should put any stock in the opinions of teams with bad opinions.

 

[deadhead]

I cannot be any more clear on this. He received maybe nothing for delaying a pick by an entire year and did so because they thought they could predict the relative value of the end of next year's draft's first round. I'm not debating this with you because there is no grey area. It's a litmus test of who cares to think about historical precedence and who doesn't.

I thought you worked in some kind of financial related position?

This is basic financial theory, Briere bought an option a year out, its value is unknown b/c there's a range of values that won't be determined until the end of the season, and the players on the board at that point are also unknown. But the option has real value.

There's a small probability that the pick has less value if it's in the late 20s or early 30s and the players available aren't as good as the one he could have picked at #32.
But there's also, given Edmonton's goalies, a significant probability of picking in the 15-20 range, where he's almost certain to pick from a group of much better players.

Given Briere's low discount rate, and the need for top 6/top 4 prospects, a chance at a pick in the teens has real value.

 

[deadhead]

OK. So to be clear, you are bowing to the assessment abilities and authority of the worst teams in the league.

Tell me, why do you think these teams are annually bad? Could it be because they are bad at evaluating players and thus building a roster?

Are teams who are bad at evaluation what you consider a strong authority on player evaluation?

If you're going to appeal to authority, at least tell me why I should put any stock in the opinions of teams with bad opinions.

I'm not bowing to anyone's opinion.
I'll check back in 3 years to see who was right.

There's a difference between Process and Judgement.
Hinkie had a good Process, but bad judgement. Picked the wrong players.

I think the Process is fine, the Judgement? We'll see.
If Jett and Gill turn out fine, he's brilliant.
If they flop and Buium is a top 5 Norris candidate, he screwed the pooch.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Note to Self: Do not let Briere or Deady manage my investments

 

[Beef Invictus]

I'm not bowing to anyone's opinion.
I'll check back in 3 years to see who was right.

There's a difference between Process and Judgement.
Hinkie had a good Process, but bad judgement. Picked the wrong players.

I think the Process is fine, the Judgement? We'll see.
If Jett and Gill turn out fine, he's brilliant.
If they flop and Buium is a top 5 Norris candidate, he screwed the pooch.

You are absolutely bowing to the Flyers' opinion, and citing that bad teams agreed as proof.

You always bow to the Flyers' opinion.

 

[Hollywood Cannon]

I'm gonna have to ask Jojoette to make some cinnamon buns to bring Jojo back down to Earth after this one.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I thought you worked in some kind of financial related position?

I'm a cryptographer by trade who worked in the casino and InfoSec industries. That means I'm just barely smart enough to understand that I need to pay a financial guy because I am decidedly not.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I'm a cryptographer by trade who worked in the casino and InfoSec industries. That means I'm just barely smart enough to understand that I need to pay a financial guy because I am decidedly not.

I regret to inform you that math isn't real

 

[Tripod]

And in 3 years if he is wrong, will never admit it.

"Fletch only made 1 mistake and even that mistake looks fine since Shaw fixed Risto"

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I regret to inform you that math isn't real

Oh no. The NHL has finally penetrated your brain. This is tragic.

 

[deadhead]

I'm a cryptographer by trade who worked in the casino and InfoSec industries. That means I'm just barely smart enough to understand that I need to pay a financial guy because I am decidedly not.

That explains it!

I'm an economist (among other things) who had no clue about finance until I got hired as a consultant out of graduate school.

The first thing they had me do is value some assets.
So I'm teaching myself financial theory. Then moved to the "how to do it" books as I found out theory is basically useless for anything other than publishing papers. Learned that Excel is life.

As an economist, I was taught a lot of theory but not how to actually do anything.
But as a consultant, I learned the first rule of life: "fake it till you make it."

 

[Beef Invictus]

Oh no. The NHL has finally penetrated your brain. This is tragic.

If math is real then I have to take this seriously:

I cannot, and I will not.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

If math is real then I have to take this seriously:

I cannot, and I will not.

Luchanko knew this was Calabi-Yau space. Buium thought it was a particularly bad hernia. That's how they broke the tie.

 

[deadhead]

I regret to inform you that math isn't real

Oh it's definitely real. Some of it is really weird as well.

The sad thing about age is the deterioration of math skills, in my 20s, with cigarettes and coffee, I was f---g brilliant. Blew off a Calculus II class to party for a whole semester, then worked through the textbook in one week and A'ced the final exam.

In graduate school, learned set theory to read Debreu's Theory of Value, taught myself Dynamic Programming, etc.

Now, it's Egyptian Hieroglyphics to me.
Still have a grasp of the intuition, but actually doing anything more complicated than percentages? Forget about it. The brain turns to mush.
When I read a paper I assume the editor approved the 10 pages of math and just focus on the explanation and the conclusion.

There's a reason the work that gets Physicists and Economists Nobel Prizes is mostly done by age 30.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Oh it's definitely real. Some of it is really weird as well.

The sad thing about age is the deterioration of math skills, in my 20s, with cigarettes and coffee, I was f---g brilliant. Blew off a Calculus II class to party for a whole semester, then worked through the textbook in one week and A'ced the final exam.

In graduate school, learned set theory to read Debreu's Theory of Value, taught myself Dynamic Programming, etc.

Now, it's Egyptian Hieroglyphics to me.
Still have a grasp of the intuition, but actually doing anything more complicated than percentages? Forget about it. The brain turns to mush.
When I read a paper I assume the editor approved the 10 pages of math and just focus on the explanation and the conclusion.

There's a reason the work that gets Physicists and Economists Nobel Prizes is mostly done by age 30.

@Sombastate is supposed to recommend a book on Calculus to me, which I am excited for, which means that I must harbor an immense reservoir of self-hatred.

 

[freakydallas13]

Oh it's definitely real. Some of it is really weird as well.

The sad thing about age is the deterioration of math skills, in my 20s, with cigarettes and coffee, I was f---g brilliant. Blew off a Calculus II class to party for a whole semester, then worked through the textbook in one week and A'ced the final exam.

In graduate school, learned set theory to read Debreu's Theory of Value, taught myself Dynamic Programming, etc.

Now, it's Egyptian Hieroglyphics to me.
Still have a grasp of the intuition, but actually doing anything more complicated than percentages? Forget about it. The brain turns to mush.
When I read a paper I assume the editor approved the 10 pages of math and just focus on the explanation and the conclusion.

There's a reason the work that gets Physicists and Economists Nobel Prizes is mostly done by age 30.

Math is such a weird field because mathematicians' cognitive function peaks at like age 20 and their ability to do high level research just gets worse every year after that.