2024-25 Roster Thread #1: The Beginninging

[blackjackmulligan]

Whatever this team is, safe ain't it.

Right now, the primary problem is they just aren't on the same page offensively, they're misfiring on passes and shots, trying too hard and getting caught out of position.

Problem is they just are not good enough. That is the main issue/primary problem. This isn't hard to figure out. Would a different coach get better results?

Once Seeler returns he will stabilize the lineup and look for the team to rebound big time

 

[Curufinwe]

Only 6 of the 13 forwards have an ES point so far.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

In shot attempts, Cates (1 game), Couturier and TK are top. Farabee and Luchanko are at the bottom.

Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Couturier, Hathaway, and Poehling have a ES GF% of 50. Every other forward is under that, and five of them are at zero.

 

[usahockey22flyers]

We need a greater sample size - maybe by Nov 1st we'll have a real feeling of where things are going...but the early returns on the offensive analytics are not good.

I anticipate them being near the bottom - if all things are equal - in chances created, high danger chances, corsi, expected goals, and shooting %.

Not where you want to be.

 

[deadhead]

xGF% 47.16 (22), HDCF% 41.15% (28), (GA-xGA)/60: +1.26.
xGF/60: 2.26 (26), xGA/60: 2.57 (16), HDCF/60: 8.41 (29), HDCA/60: 12.03 (25)

What's interesting is how much worse HDCA is than xGA, which suggests they're having too many breakdowns on defense.

 

[blackjackmulligan]

We need a greater sample size - maybe by Nov 1st we'll have a real feeling of where things are going...but the early returns on the offensive analytics are not good.

I anticipate them being near the bottom - if all things are equal - in chances created, high danger chances, corsi, expected goals, and shooting %.

Not where you want to be.

Dead said the next 6-8 games. Then the spin will go in another direction.

xGF% 47.16 (22), HDCF% 41.15% (28), (GA-xGA)/60: +1.26.
xGF/60: 2.26 (26), xGA/60: 2.57 (16), HDCF/60: 8.41 (29), HDCA/60: 12.03 (25)

What's interesting is how much worse HDCA is than xGA, which suggests they're having too many breakdowns on defense.

They are not a good hockey team. End of story.

 

[ellja3]

xGF% 47.16 (22), HDCF% 41.15% (28), (GA-xGA)/60: +1.26.
xGF/60: 2.26 (26), xGA/60: 2.57 (16), HDCF/60: 8.41 (29), HDCA/60: 12.03 (25)

What's interesting is how much worse HDCA is than xGA, which suggests they're having too many breakdowns on defense.

Can you, please, elaborate? Wouldn't HDCA automatically lead to a goal scoring chance that has high xGA, or? Genuine question. I usually love advanced stats, but perhaps Monday brain is not.. braining at the moment.

 

[FLYguy3911]

HDCA just takes in the distance of the shot location and not the context of the shot. With “high danger” volumes being much lower than the other stats, there can be a lot of noise over a 5 game sample.

 

[deadhead]

Can you, please, elaborate? Wouldn't HDCA automatically lead to a goal scoring chance that has high xGA, or? Genuine question. I usually love advanced stats, but perhaps Monday brain is not.. braining at the moment.

A HDCA would translate into xGA, but it's only a portion of what goes into xGA, a lot of low danger chances would increase xGA without impacting HDCA.

So to me, xGA reflects your overall defensive play, HDCA reflects how often you have breakdowns that allow good scoring chances. As Flyguy3911 points out, it's a crude measure, I'm sure teams have proprietary data that's more detailed, they probably have 1-2 people whose job is primarily to edit video for this purpose.

5 games is a small sample, especially given the circumstances at the start of this season, I think it takes about 20 games for metrics to start becoming meaningful.

 

[usahockey22flyers]

Can you, please, elaborate? Wouldn't HDCA automatically lead to a goal scoring chance that has high xGA, or? Genuine question. I usually love advanced stats, but perhaps Monday brain is not.. braining at the moment.

Flyguy did a nice job explaining.

Advanced stats can sometimes trip me up too, this board has been so great at helping me better understand as well. And i’m still learning!

 

[blackjackmulligan]

A HDCA would translate into xGA, but it's only a portion of what goes into xGA, a lot of low danger chances would increase xGA without impacting HDCA.

So to me, xGA reflects your overall defensive play, HDCA reflects how often you have breakdowns that allow good scoring chances. As Flyguy3911 points out, it's a crude measure, I'm sure teams have proprietary data that's more detailed, they probably have 1-2 people whose job is primarily to edit video for this purpose.

5 games is a small sample, especially given the circumstances at the start of this season, I think it takes about 20 games for metrics to start becoming meaningful.

What circumstances?

 

[ellja3]

A HDCA would translate into xGA, but it's only a portion of what goes into xGA, a lot of low danger chances would increase xGA without impacting HDCA.

So to me, xGA reflects your overall defensive play, HDCA reflects how often you have breakdowns that allow good scoring chances. As Flyguy3911 points out, it's a crude measure, I'm sure teams have proprietary data that's more detailed, they probably have 1-2 people whose job is primarily to edit video for this purpose.

5 games is a small sample, especially given the circumstances at the start of this season, I think it takes about 20 games for metrics to start becoming meaningful.

Thanks, this makes sense (the fact that low-danger chances also slowly add to the xGA).

Flyguy did a nice job explaining.

Advanced stats can sometimes trip me up too, this board has been so great at helping me better understand as well. And i’m still learning!

I'm analyst by profession and yet the squirrel in my brain still sometimes doesn't spin the wheel fast enough to make all the links, so it's indeed nice when someone explains it in simple terms.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Thanks, this makes sense (the fact that low-danger chances also slowly add to the xGA).

Different sites use different definitions, but this might help contextualize it too.

 

[freakydallas13]

Dead said the next 6-8 games. Then the spin will go in another direction.


They are not a good hockey team. End of story.

Currently the worst team in the East. Buffalo Sabres have a higher points %.

 

[deadhead]

And both Colorado and Edmonton have similar records.
It's a long season.

 

[deadhead]

Different sites use different definitions, but this might help contextualize it too.

I wonder if the high danger region shouldn't extend horizontally to the face off circles, it seems to me watching games those two triangles are high danger shots. Would be interesting to see shooting success from that area.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

Currently the worst team in the East. Buffalo Sabres have a higher points %.

we win again...

 

[ellja3]

Different sites use different definitions, but this might help contextualize it too.

No, no, I know what low danger/high danger is... I was referring to brain block re: xGA and HDCA being somewhat different for Flyers rank-wise.

 

[ellja3]

I wonder if the high danger region shouldn't extend horizontally to the face off circles, it seems to me watching games those two triangles are high danger shots. Would be interesting to see shooting success from that area.

Yes, I seem to agree w this.

 

[Curufinwe]

Currently the worst team in the East. Buffalo Sabres have a higher points %.

30th in a 32 team league.

 

[WolfOfBroadStreet14]

Ryan Poehling 2C in practice. His ascension back to the 1C continues…

 

[freakydallas13]

And both Colorado and Edmonton have similar records.
It's a long season.

Have both Colorado and Edmonton been outplayed at 5v5 in every game they have played?

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I wonder if the high danger region shouldn't extend horizontally to the face off circles, it seems to me watching games those two triangles are high danger shots. Would be interesting to see shooting success from that area.

To really have this discussion, I would use one of HockeyViz's maps. You need more granularity than three broad buckets for me personally.

For example:

 

[SolidSnakeUS]

Ryan Poehling 2C in practice. His ascension back to the 1C continues…

I mean, at this point, it's to be expected from Torts.

 

[Striiker]

Different sites use different definitions, but this might help contextualize it too.

This avy is driving me f***ing bananas

 

[ajgoal]

This avy is driving me f***ing bananas

@JojoTheWhale go back to your last one for the sake of his sanity.