Apparently it's been close to 10 years since the 5 seed beat the 4 seed in round one according to the Saginaw PBP guy. I don't remember if he specified in that conference or across the entire OHL. Saginaw is really short staffed right now. They had 3 top 9 forwards (one top 6) out and one of their better bottom 6 players was injured in game one. They'll get at least one back in game 3 as he was serving a suspension.
The bigger issue however is the goaltending (as you can probably guess by the scores) Papineau and Oke have similar numbers IIRC but they're miles apart in quality. Oke is a good OHL goalie, he was lights out in their playoff run last year. His numbers kind of suck because he plays behind a really loose system and when he's not on he'll get shelled. Typically though, he's a steady presence who will make a few big saves and keep them in the game. Papineau on the other hand just doesn't provide that safety net. I kind of thought he turned a corner towards the end of the season because he was awful early on but seemed to level out after Oke's injury and even had some really good games. Thus far, his playoffs have been miserable. In game 1 it's hard to really pin any of the goals on him, they were good chances, at the same time, you want your goalie to save SOME of those good chances. If Oke was in net Erie likely still scores 4-5 but I'm taking the under on 8. In game 2 there was probably 4 goals he wants back. Impossible to win that game, it gave me flashbacks to Brian Elliot in 2017.
Edit: Forgot to mention Erie is missing a top 6 guy and Matthew Schaefer too though.