Blue Jays Discussion: 2024-25 Off-season: The free agent watch begins (and sometimes old baseball radio broadcasts)

[Suntouchable13]

Optimistic take, I think they get it done just before the opener. They will meet his price. They have to do it. The alternative is absolutely worse. They (ownership) want him showing at RC in 2026 and beyond as a Yankee or a Red Sock? No.

 

[Bjindaho]

Optimistic take, I think they get it done just before the opener. They will meet his price. They have to do it. The alternative is absolutely worse. They (ownership) want him showing at RC in 2026 and beyond as a Yankee or a Red Sock? No.

I cannot name a single player who has ever been only a Blue Jay. Most guys don't even get close.

This is why they have to pay more for all the guys that they sign. If they were to lock up Bo and Vladdy (or even one of them), there's a path to actually recruiting guys to the team that isn't primarily money driven. That being said, they also need to start kicking the tires on what it will take to get Kirk signed long term.

 

[the valiant effort]

Might not be news to many here, but game 2 of the Jays/Orioles opening series is on goddamn Apple TV. Not that I’ll be watching this year.

Regarding Vladdy, do we really care about “too long” of a term?

 

[Dr.Funk]

 

[Bjindaho]

Might not be news to many here, but game 2 of the Jays/Orioles opening series is on goddamn Apple TV. Not that I’ll be watching this year.

Regarding Vladdy, do we really care about “too long” of a term?

That honestly depends.

If management signs Vladdy and Bo, then I could see a path where both Shapiro and Atkins stay long term and there's a level of stability where the term doesn't matter. In other words, they thread the needle where the team has a shot at the playoffs for the foreseeable future, don't need major sell-offs and can slow-build the pipeline (with a sustained payroll for the entirety of the contract, making the length less important).

On the other hand, if they keep walking things this way, I could see a scenario where they are forced to sign one of the two guys, continue walking guys to free agency and there are legitimate questions about how long either guy stays. In that scenario, anything above Vladdy's prime would become an extreme risk because the payroll could very significantly from year to year (which would lead to constrained budgets again and Vladdy's contract preventing other signings).

Look at it this way...

Springer's deal hurts if he isn't producing, but it isn't stopping the Jays from acquiring anyone because they are still willing to spend. Looking back a little bit to 2019 and 2020, Tulo's deal hurt a lot because it handcuffed the budget (he was paid 19.4M and 14M not to play)

Edit to further illustrate: If the Jays didn't have Tulo's contract on the books, they could have made a legitimate offer to Cole or Wheeler instead of Ryu (used the money that way instead).

 

[Suntouchable13]

Might not be news to many here, but game 2 of the Jays/Orioles opening series is on goddamn Apple TV. Not that I’ll be watching this year.

Regarding Vladdy, do we really care about “too long” of a term?

Great, f***ing beautiful.

 

[habamillions]

I cannot name a single player who has ever been only a Blue Jay. Most guys don't even get close.

This is why they have to pay more for all the guys that they sign. If they were to lock up Bo and Vladdy (or even one of them), there's a path to actually recruiting guys to the team that isn't primarily money driven. That being said, they also need to start kicking the tires on what it will take to get Kirk signed long term.

Delgado and halladay wanted to be but the team could juat never make the playoffs so didnt blame them for wanting out. Having those 2 players in their prime now jays would make the playoffs every year

 

[Tony Romo]

Optimistic take, I think they get it done just before the opener. They will meet his price. They have to do it. The alternative is absolutely worse. They (ownership) want him showing at RC in 2026 and beyond as a Yankee or a Red Sock? No.

I think he's most likely a Met, if he leaves.

 

[habamillions]

Might not be news to many here, but game 2 of the Jays/Orioles opening series is on goddamn Apple TV. Not that I’ll be watching this year.

Regarding Vladdy, do we really care about “too long” of a term?

Its just the friday game thats on apple but still this might be the last year for awhile that the jays are in the mix before everyone leaves and nobody wants to come in free agency

 

[Kurtz]

I haven't caught any ST - is Kirk looking in better shape at all? And how about Vlad? (I'm assuming he's in the best shape of his life).

 

[Discoverer]

I haven't caught any ST - is Kirk looking in better shape at all? And how about Vlad? (I'm assuming he's in the best shape of his life).

I usually just kind of have it on in the background at work, so I haven't really noticed. At the very least, though, Kirk is making fantastic contact and hammering the ball. That's what we need to see most out of him, so hopefully it carries over into the regular season.

 

[Bjindaho]

I haven't caught any ST - is Kirk looking in better shape at all? And how about Vlad? (I'm assuming he's in the best shape of his life).

Kirk has more or less looked the same his whole career. He's a short, thick guy.

His struggles had little to do with weight.

His entire offensive approach has changed this spring. He's still the patient, high-contact hitter he was, but with more emphasis on pulling the ball early in the count (he has 4 105+ balls this spring versus 6 all of last season).

Vladdy had one bad offseason, and clearly learned his lesson. He would have had a steal a couple of days ago, but the pitch was ball 4. He's having fun while getting his work in.

More importantly, Bo looks awesome. He's been having great at-bats, while also playing extremely well in the field.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Curious how much money we could have gotten Vladdy for if we'd signed him early, or if he would have just let himself go after he got the fat contract.

 

[phillipmike]

Curious how much money we could have gotten Vladdy for if we'd signed him early, or if he would have just let himself go after he got the fat contract.

For me this is a Fred Van Vleet situation. He was always going to bet on himself and for good reason, it is going to pay off. But it is likely many free agents, they will always want to go to free agent unless you grossly overpay.

If you look at all he top guys over the last 5 year who have 6-7 years of services, almost always went to free agency or held out for more which prompted the team to trade them and get bigger extensions elsewhere;

1 Judge
2 Lindor
3 Ohtani
4 Freeman
5 Betts
7 Soto
10 Swanson
12 Seager
13 Semien
14 Turner
16 Likely Kyle Tucker
17 Machado
19 Bregman

And the guys that didnt;

8 Jose Ramirez
9 Alvarez
11 Rodriguez
Witt

Pitching:
1 Wheeler
2 Gauman
3 Nola
4 Likely Cease
5 Likely Valdez
6 Zach Gallen
8 Burnes
9 Gray
10 Snell
12 Cole
14 Fried
15 Verlander

Guys who didnt:
11 Lopez
13 Strider

Top guys always go to free agency unless you are Mike Trout or Jose Ramirez. Add Rodriguez and Witt too. Not much on the pitching side as all the top pitchers went to free agency.

 

[Kurtz]

Kirk has more or less looked the same his whole career. He's a short, thick guy.

His struggles had little to do with weight.

It'd be good to see him come into the season looking like an athlete so that we could test that theory, but doesn't sound like that's in the cards.

Even if it didn't alter his hitting ability, at the very least it would make him less of a liability on the basepaths and reduce the strain he puts on those knees behind the plate, as we desperately need him to be available this season given our other options at C.

 

[MK78]

Curious how much money we could have gotten Vladdy for if we'd signed him early, or if he would have just let himself go after he got the fat contract.

I duno, if they signed him before he hit ARB at 23, bought out the 3 ARB years lets say 10 year contract, he would still have a chance at another good contract if he performed well. He would have had to work on it though.

Right now he's just looking for one fat deal for the rest of his career regardless of performance.

 

[dredeye]

That post makes no sense

 

[Discoverer]

That post makes no sense

Yeah I honestly have no clue what he's trying to say. What doesn't make sense about it?

 

[Bjindaho]

That post makes no sense

He's calling the Jays cheap. Offering old Springer and Soto so much but balking at Vlad. It just lacks context (which would undermine the whole post).

 

[Discoverer]

He's calling the Jays cheap. Offering old Springer and Soto so much but balking at Vlad. It just lacks context (which would undermine the whole post).

If that's what he's trying to say, he needs to do a better job of understanding how words and/or numbers work because none of that tweet supports that argument.