Blue Jays Discussion: 2024-25 Off-season: The free agent watch begins (and sometimes old baseball radio broadcasts)
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Suntouchable13
Registered User
- Dec 12, 2017
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Any chance they’d play “Gods Country” when the team enters the field like they did today. Great beat and easy for the fans to sing along
phillipmike
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- Oct 27, 2009
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Jays went well and above. Vladdy wants $500M present day value and Ohtani’s contract is $460M present day value. I’ll leave that there.
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Vlad is in Mitch territory when it comes to a scorched earth approach with fans.
Yeah, going to $400-450 in value is an aggressive offer. If Vladdy thinks that wasn't close, then he's likely just committed to going to free agency.
TheBeastCoast
Registered User
Please, go away with your BS.
Stop throwing out big numbers that aren't related and pretending that they are. Ohtani was signed to a 10 year deal. Vladdy's offer was supposedly 15 years. At 500M present day value, that's 33.3M per as opposed to the 46 for Ohtani. Alonso got 27 and was rumored to have a bigger offer than that from Toronto.
33.3 would only tie him for 10th overall (further back when Tucker signs), keeping in mind that the guys who are better than him either have been signed for a while or signed a deal long before free agency.
This is getting close to Delgado vibes (where the Jays offered the guy a pay cut to stay, despite him being their best player).
We are offering him the third highest contract ever. How the f*** is that a pay cut?
Look I love Vladdy, always have and always will unless he goes to an AL east team. However, we just offered the third highest contract total in MLB history for a guy who has had 2-3 above average bat seasons, one being in a minor league park for half the year. While also having to move him off of his original position because of his weight issues.
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Springer is having a rough spring. I really hope they bat him near the bottom of the lineup.
phillipmike
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- Oct 27, 2009
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We found Vladdy’s mom. I don’t know why anything Vladdy related triggers you when it isn’t positive. I’m just stating facts.
These aren’t my numbers. These are numbers that were brought up an hour ago when Steve Phillips was on Overdrive.
Yeah, I can’t profess to say I understand the economics of deferrals, but 15 years is crazy in itself and overall it’s still a ton of money. Is there ego attached to the aav?
If I were offered 50 million of basically severance pay, I’d probably, albeit reluctantly, accept.
- Dec 12, 2017
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May not start once Varsho is back….
Kirk and Varsho will two of be the most reliable players this year. Both are ball players first and foremost, and I was against Kirk but he’s change my mind.
It's pretty clear that as much as we don't like Shatkins, they aren't the issue here.
Vlad is asking for way, way too much money when a) he's a first baseman, which by pretty much all metrics/data is considered the least valuable position on the field. b) he hasn't done nearly enough to justify that type of money when he has 2 upper echelon seasons, 1 solidly all-star season (2022) and then a whole pile of blah in the middle and c) turned down what is a fair contract because of deferrals which we've seen now is the way business is done in baseball.
He already annoyed me with his social media antics after claiming "yeah i don't want distractions so i'm not negotiating in season." This isn't going to help his case.
Spoiled brat.
This analysis is wild. Yeah, it would only make him the 10th highest paid player, but we're talking about a FIFTEEN year deal. That's a MASSIVE contract.
Like... within the same paragraph, you complained about Ohtani's contract not being comparable and then compared this potential Vlad deal to Pete Alonso's two year deal.
The longer a contract goes, the lower the AAV. We're talking about a potential deal that likely includes a few years of decline and then 4-5 years of basically zero production. Of course that's going to drive down the AAV and of course the AAV is going to make it look like he's taking a pay cut. That's how massive, long term deals work.
Ohtani isn't remotely comparable to Vlad as well.
He's a unicorn of unicorns type player but even outside of that, the guy's name brand alone means 10/700 might actually be an underpayment. The guy, on his own, got added to f***ing Fortnite. The only athletes to get that treatment are the most recognizable names on Earth like Messi and LeBron.
A rare type where his mere presence prints money for your organization.
Vladdy isn't bringing in that amount of eyeballs no matter how hard Sportsnet tries to tell you otherwise.
He's a unicorn of unicorns type player but even outside of that, the guy's name brand alone means 10/700 might actually be an underpayment. The guy, on his own, got added to f***ing Fortnite. The only athletes to get that treatment are the most recognizable names on Earth like Messi and LeBron.
A rare type where his mere presence prints money for your organization.
Vladdy isn't bringing in that amount of eyeballs no matter how hard Sportsnet tries to tell you otherwise.
I really like Vlad and will be pissed to see him go but he's had two seasons of 4.0 WAR+. He likely has another one coming up but that contract he is asking for is nuts. Although I doubt he will do it again, he has shown up to camp I think twice not in the greatest of shape. How long will his body hold up?
He's making 28.5M this year. The Jays offer was reportedly less than that per year.
But it's Alonso money for term for a guy who makes more than Alonso now.
The report was that the value worked out to $400-450 million. So you're just assuming it was less than $28.5 AAV. But what he makes this year should have nothing to do with it when we're talking about a contract that long.
If he insists that he doesn't want to take a pay cut on the AAV, he should sign a shorter term deal that isn't still paying him the same amount when he turns 40.
But if you really insist on viewing it that way, you can look at it as $40M per for ten years plus a $10Mx5 retirement contract for when he's providing nothing.
MK78
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- Apr 8, 2023
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I think any deal that's more than $550M+ and longer than 12 years is insane for a 1B with a chubby history, and not a stellar consistancy at the plate.
If that's what he wants, then go ahead and walk. Be someone else's problem 7 years from now.
If that's what he wants, then go ahead and walk. Be someone else's problem 7 years from now.
I think Vlad is worth 4.5 ish WAR (give or take) for 10 years. Estimating 1 win at 10ish million, that would be 45 WAR = 450 million.
I don’t think anybody wants Vlad for his years aged 37-40 seasons. That’s just the trade-off to get the AAV down.
If the present-day value of the offered deal is around 450 million, it more or less sounds fair rather than one party getting the edge, in my opinion.
Of course, Vlad will want every penny he can get. But I think 500 million with a 450 million present-day value offer is fair.
However, “400-450” million is a big gap. If it’s closer to 400 million in present-day value, the Jays have to get that up a bit.
They should probably offer 525-550 and structure it with deferrals so the present day value is up to 450 not “400-450”.
I don’t think anybody wants Vlad for his years aged 37-40 seasons. That’s just the trade-off to get the AAV down.
If the present-day value of the offered deal is around 450 million, it more or less sounds fair rather than one party getting the edge, in my opinion.
Of course, Vlad will want every penny he can get. But I think 500 million with a 450 million present-day value offer is fair.
However, “400-450” million is a big gap. If it’s closer to 400 million in present-day value, the Jays have to get that up a bit.
They should probably offer 525-550 and structure it with deferrals so the present day value is up to 450 not “400-450”.
I apologize to you and phillipmike. I read the Heyman report and Vladdy's comments and made an assumption.
Per Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hit deadlock over $50M gap,
the offer was 14 years (not 15) which is significant. At 14, 450, that's 32.14M per year (as the Jays offer). Based on what SN is reporting, Vladdy wanted 35.7M.
Like I've said before, I have no problem with paying Vladdy 30+ million (because of scarcity). I could live with splitting the difference, but I wouldn't disagree that it is getting on the hefty side (as is Vladdy's ask). The issue that I take at this and all points is that I would rather pay him the money and have him happy (and sign Bo while I am at it) then have to figure out those holes. Vladdy is replaceable if Josh Naylor hits free agency (or by trading for a 1B). Bo is replaceable if the Jays shift Gimenez (and theoretically sign a 2B or 3B).
The message behind not signing either guy is difficult to swallow though. These are guys who came up through the system, became the faces of the franchise, and who should have been helping to recruit any free agents that the Jays pursue. Because the Jays decided to play things year to year, they bid on Soto without being able to use the thing that they could offer that no one else could. It should be noted that Sasaki's comments on signing with LA apply to this situation as well (though he was likely signing with LA no matter what).
If you don't re-sign these guys, then why would we have faith that you will re-sign Kirk when he's up in two years (which if his hitting rebounds, like his spring stats suggest it might, he goes from 6th best catcher in baseball over the past 3 years to potentially 2) where the next best catcher available would be Heim/d'Arnauld and the closest in house catcher to being a big leaguer is Sharp (highest level high-A) and below.
Also, why would we have faith that they re-sign Varsho (14th most valuable CF over that timeframe, despite playing most of 2023 in LF). The Jays have much better in house options here (and would almost certainly go this route), but while retooling like this is good for preventing the need for a full-scale rebuild, it makes the team less competitive short term.
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