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Blue Jays Discussion: 2024-25 Off-season: The free agent watch begins (and sometimes old baseball radio broadcasts)

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Discoverer said:
I would move them up to the 2-3-4 spot, but I'm good with running Vlad/Santander/Bo in that order.

I get if, say, Wagner breaks out and Gimenez bounces back to his 2022 numbers. Otherwise, you're forcing a couple inferior hitters to come to the plate more often and in more important situations. Unless a couple guys force their way up, the offense just doesn't have the depth to have multiple hitters ahead of the core.
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I feel like Bo tries to become too much of an old-fashioned cleanup hitter when he's hits 4th and he starts swinging out of his shoes. His numbers take a bit of a dip when hitting 4th.

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Ideally, two of Gimenez, Wagner, Roden, Springer, Clement, or even Varsho break out during the season, and we can go with Vlad, Santander, and Bo 3, 4, 5.
  1. Gimenez/Wagner/Roden/Springer/Clement
  2. Wagner/Roden/Springer/Varsho
  3. Vlad
  4. Santander
  5. Bichette
  6. Kirk
 
Puckstuff said:
I feel like Bo tries to become too much of an old-fashioned cleanup hitter when he's hits 4th and he starts swinging out of his shoes. His numbers take a bit of a dip when hitting 4th.

View attachment 987038

Ideally, two of Gimenez, Wagner, Roden, Springer, Clement, or even Varsho break out during the season, and we can go with Vlad, Santander, and Bo 3, 4, 5.
  1. Gimenez/Wagner/Roden/Springer/Clement
  2. Wagner/Roden/Springer/Varsho
  3. Vlad
  4. Santander
  5. Bichette
  6. Kirk
Click to expand...

I am still unhappy they did not get another hitter. Now they are hoping way too much that someone breaks out. How can you build a competitive team on hope? You have to go all in. They needed to go above and beyond on their valuations for Alonso or Bregman, imo. You have to win this year. Who cares about their "discipline"? When they have not accomplished anything with that approach.
 
Bjindaho said:
Bo and Vladdy are the two best overall hitters in the lineup. Santander isn't as good of a hitter, but his power improves sequencing (sometimes a more all or nothing approach is good). The issue is that Springer or Kirk would be the Jays' 4th best hitter if we don't see the changes noted for Gimenez/Clement and if Wagner doesn't hit the ground running.


Bo has made significant strides defensively at SS. Part of keeping him there is leaving the door open to potentially sign him.
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Santander has a better wRC+ over the last three years and was miles better last year, obviously. In terms of offensive production, Santander is ahead of Bo.
 
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Puckstuff said:
I really hope we don't bat Bo leadoff when the real season starts.

I always get push back for this and I don't know who the Jays can put at 1 and 2 in the batting order—maybe Giménez and Wagner—but I feel like the Jays will score WAY more runs if they put Vlad, Santander, and Bichette at 3-4-5 in those prime RBI spots.

Bichette is a hyper-aggressive, free-swinging contact hitter who excels at putting the ball in play, hitting doubles, and driving balls into the gaps. We can easily expect another 190-hit season from him, with 60 of those going for extra bases. A player like that, who can drive the ball deep, needs to be hitting with runners on base—he’s almost tailor-made for the fifth spot in the lineup. Conversely, his lack of plate discipline, tendency to swing early and aggressively, reluctance to take pitches, and relatively low walk rate make it frustrating when he's batting first or second. He just seems built to be an RBI guy, not a table setter with the XBH power and the ability to put the ball in play.
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Jays need a luis arraez type player to lead off. Not much power but gets on base a lot. Gimenez is playing really well in spring. But it is spring
 
habamillions said:
Jays need a luis arraez type player to lead off. Not much power but gets on base a lot. Gimenez is playing really well in spring. But it is spring
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Honestly, if Gimmy gets back to around a .720ish OPS with 30 stolen bases, that’s roughly equivalent to a .750 OPS player anyway, considering how often he’ll turn walks and singles into standing on second. That's good enough for the leadoff spot for me. Gimenez bouncing back is critical af.
 
Puckstuff said:
I feel like Bo tries to become too much of an old-fashioned cleanup hitter when he's hits 4th and he starts swinging out of his shoes. His numbers take a bit of a dip when hitting 4th.

View attachment 987038

Ideally, two of Gimenez, Wagner, Roden, Springer, Clement, or even Varsho break out during the season, and we can go with Vlad, Santander, and Bo 3, 4, 5.
  1. Gimenez/Wagner/Roden/Springer/Clement
  2. Wagner/Roden/Springer/Varsho
  3. Vlad
  4. Santander
  5. Bichette
  6. Kirk
Click to expand...
If Bo gets back to his old form he's hitting 2nd all day long.
 
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"It's much less than Soto. We're talking about many fewer millions than Soto, more than a hundred million less. ... It was the same number of years [as Soto's contract], but it didn't reach [$600 million]. The last number we gave them as a counteroffer didn't reach 600," Guerrero said.

"I know the business. I lowered the salary demands a bit, but I also lowered the number of years ... I'm looking for 14 [years]. I would like 14, 15, even 20 if they give them to me, but doing it the right way."
Click to expand...
 
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I believe Ortiz mentioned the asking price a few weeks ago, and it seems that was accurate. It’s better to consider trading him now before he leaves for nothing; someone will be willing to offer him that kind of money when he becomes a FA. It just won’t be the Blue Jays.
 
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If it was 38 or 39 per for 15 years straight up and Vlad said no, then he'll be gone.

If it was deferred like the Ohtani deal, it's same money for Vladdy but saying he makes 20.8M v 38M doesn't quite have the same ring.

Like I calculated earlier, the Ortiz report would be approx 27 or 28 with deferrals.

Straight up, the Ortiz numbers won't happen on the open market but with heavy deferrals, they could.
 
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Bjindaho said:
If it was 38 or 39 per for 15 years straight up and Vlad said no, then he'll be gone.

If it was deferred like the Ohtani deal, it's same money for Vladdy but saying he makes 20.8M v 38M doesn't quite have the same ring.

Like I calculated earlier, the Ortiz report would be approx 27 or 28 with deferrals.

Straight up, the Ortiz numbers won't happen on the open market but with heavy deferrals, they could.
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A quick chat GPT calculation has 600 m over 15 with 70 % backloaded over the last 7 years as a present day value of 420 m. I’d say that’s a fair contract.

If Vlad is asking for close to 600 m spread out evenly over 14-15 years that’s a bit ridiculous. I’m fine with the stance management is taking.
 
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Puckstuff said:
A quick chat GPT calculation has 600 m over 15 with 70 % backloaded over the last 7 years as a present day value of 420 m. I’d say that’s a fair contract.

If Vlad is asking for close to 600 m spread out evenly over 14-15 years that’s a bit ridiculous. I’m fine with the stance management is taking.
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Another quick note is that the difference between 13, 14 and 15 years straight up is 39, 41.8 and 45M per year.

As the deferrals get heavier, the present value dramatically varies from straight money for term (on Ohtani terms, the difference per year is 1.7M in present value which is approx 22M in valuation difference).

In a perfect world, the Jays felt out both options, knowing that anything over about 35M per year in straight money would go so far above anything there's evidence for, but with some level of deferrals he could make more actual money (deferred money is accounted for like an interest free loan from the team to the team where they invest what they would have paid him to make at least a certain level of value (MLB uses 4.43 as the implied interest rate)).
 
Woodman19 said:
Anyone consider that it's only the Jays price? I feel like he wants out and will only stay if we overpay like that.
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There was a note in there that Vladdy asked for sub-600 as well. Sheer numbers are close but there's a gap in structure.

The extreme case would be Vladdy asking 15, 585 (high ask but not necessarily out of line for an initial ask) and the Jays offering the same 15, 585 with Ohtani structure (2 per for 15, then 37 per for 15). The present value difference between these two deals is 255M (though like I mentioned earlier, he'd make up a huge chunk if not all in tax difference).
 
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Woodman19 said:
Anyone consider that it's only the Jays price? I feel like he wants out and will only stay if we overpay like that.
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I wouldn't go that far, but I think he knows it's a high enough number that it guarantees he goes to free agency.

Honestly, I don't even think he's being dishonest when he says he wants to stay in Toronto. I just think that's his #2 priority after getting as much money as possible. Maybe he'll even give the Jays a chance to match other offers, but he's not going to leave money on the table to stay.
 
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