Blue Jays Discussion: 2024-25 Off-season: The free agent watch begins (and sometimes old baseball radio broadcasts)

[Discoverer]

Ok, and thats you. For me it does matter, and it isnt just his bat, he got picked off at a huge moment in an elimination game for us. At this stage i dont view him as a franchise player, maybe another MVP type season and some playoff production changes that slightly for me but its absolutely crazy to see predictions that a 1B (a potentially great one) rumored to get $600M+ based on 2 great and 1 very good season. I would love to see him get it with another team and watch it play out.

You can't draw any conclusions off of 17 plate appearances. Zero. None at all. There's nothing wrong with saying Vlad's playoff performance has been disappointing so far - that's very, very obvious. But projecting that forward as if this is just who is or he has some kind of flaw that prevents him from performing in the postseason is ridiculous.

It's shockingly common for star players to struggle in the postseason early in their careers, and it's not predictive of anything.

 

[phillipmike]

You can't draw any conclusions off of 17 plate appearances. Zero. None at all. There's nothing wrong with saying Vlad's playoff performance has been disappointing so far - that's very, very obvious. But projecting that forward as if this is just who is or he has some kind of flaw that prevents him from performing in the postseason is ridiculous.

It's shockingly common for star players to struggle in the postseason early in their careers, and it's not predictive of anything.

He has 25 PAs.

But since you feel that isn’t enough? What is an acceptable amount? Playoffs are always going to be a small sample size, but it’s very important.

But im not projecting him forward. If we can say its disappointing then i cant see why saying based on that disappointment (among regular season disappointment), it isnt smart to give him half a billion dollars. Which i think it is fair.

 

[dredeye]

You can't draw any conclusions off of 17 plate appearances. Zero. None at all. There's nothing wrong with saying Vlad's playoff performance has been disappointing so far - that's very, very obvious. But projecting that forward as if this is just who is or he has some kind of flaw that prevents him from performing in the postseason is ridiculous.

It's shockingly common for star players to struggle in the postseason early in their careers, and it's not predictive of anything.

What if we added this? There was a little pressure, and I mean a little pressure for him to get to 200 hits last season. There was zero value to it but something of relevance. You can also look up his numbers in that final stretch and then his numbers once he got to 199. He never got to 200. He has not been good when there is any pressure. Even something as insignificant as that.

 

[Bjindaho]

You think Tucker will get more than Vlad? I dont. I brought the $350M number because that was a prediction from a CBS writer. Similar to this $600M number for Vlad. That is where my comments are coming from. Just giving my thoughts on those numbers for those players.

To me $600M is $600M deferred or not and that is a number (or even $500M) i wouldnt want my team to pay that number nor does he deserve it in my eyes. That is how i see it. Many disagree, i get it.

Sure, im just going off the rumors. its a discussion board, i commented based on the the $600M. He could get $180M, and if that is what the post said, i would say "$180M, that is a steal, lets sign him right now".

I agree with your last point.

I saw that stupid CBS article. There's no universe in which Tucker should get that little. By bWAR, he's the 9th best player since 2020 behind Ohtani, Judge, Soto, Betts, Ramirez, Freeman, Wheeler, and Semien.

Of the guys above him, Ohtani, Judge and Soto are better players making more than that. Betts signed 4 years ago and was 28 (would get a lot more money now) and was strictly playing RF. Ramirez signed a team-friendly extension and reportedly refused to negotiate with teams outside of Cleveland (would have received significantly more otherwise). Freeman was 31 with a track record like Vladdy's (and actually has seen an uptick in his offense since he moved). Wheeler is on a 3 year deal worth more (and is the best pitcher in baseball right now). Semien made a lot less than he should have in retrospect, but he had an albatross year before Toronto signed him and has been better since his first free agency.

The thing about Tucker is that he posted a 4.7bWAR in half a season. If he does that over a full year, that would put him within 1bWAR of Soto.

In summary, he should definitely get 40M as a base threshold with a real possibility that he gets closer to 50.

 

[Discoverer]

What if we added this? There was a little pressure, and I mean a little pressure for him to get to 200 hits last season. There was zero value to it but something of relevance. You can also look up his numbers in that final stretch and then his numbers once he got to 199. He never got to 200. He has not been good when there is any pressure. Even something as insignificant as that.

He went 0-6 with a pair of walks once he got to 199. I don't see how that argument adds anything.

 

[Discoverer]

He has 25 PAs.

But since you feel that isn’t enough? What is an acceptable amount? Playoffs are always going to be a small sample size, but it’s very important.

But im not projecting him forward. If we can say its disappointing then i cant see why saying based on that disappointment (among regular season disappointment), it isnt smart to give him half a billion dollars. Which i think it is fair.

Sure, 25... not sure where I got 17. It's approximately the same level of meaninglessness since it amounts to a little less than a week of baseball.

I suspect if you look at players with a significant number of playoff appearances in their career, you'll find that their career regular season numbers are far more predictive of how they perform going forward in the postseason than the first 5-10 games of their postseason career.

I don't understand how you're not projecting forward when you're factoring it into the size of contract he should get. The contract you give a player should be based entirely on how you project them to perform for you going forward.

 

[Bjindaho]

He has 25 PAs.

But since you feel that isn’t enough? What is an acceptable amount? Playoffs are always going to be a small sample size, but it’s very important.

But im not projecting him forward. If we can say its disappointing then i cant see why saying based on that disappointment (among regular season disappointment), it isnt smart to give him half a billion dollars. Which i think it is fair.

The issue with his postseason is how skewed the sample will be:

His at-bats (using result off pitcher for notation):

2020
K off Snell
6-3 off Snell
HBP off Castillo
K off Fairbanks
__________________

K off Glasnow
6-3 off Glasnow
H9 off Glasnow
K off Thompson

_______________________
2022
4-3 off Castillo
F8 off Castillo
K off Castillo
6-3 off Munoz
___________________

4-3 off Ray
H8 off Ray
IBB off Sewald
4-3 off Festa
6-3 off Munoz

________________________
2023
4-3 off Lopez
F9 off Lopez
F8 off Lopez
2B to 9 off Jax
_____________________

F9 off Gray
FO3 off Gray
BB off Gray
LO8 off Jax

 

[MK78]

Varsho just homered in his first spring training at bat, still recovering from surgery.

 

[habamillions]

Varsho just homered in his first spring training at bat, still recovering from surgery.

Very nice swing and on a high pitch he usually struggles against. Then vlad went b2b

 

[Lunatik]

Varsho just homered in his first spring training at bat, still recovering from surgery.

I've not cheered for a spring training HR since Vladdy at the Big O, but I cheered this time, really happy for DV

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[landy92mack29]

There's no one other than Ohtani who is worth anywhere near 600M regardless of contract length and that's mainly because of the revenue he cane generate from Japan. The Soto contract has obviously influenced Vlad and I hope it doesn't start the delusion amongst players who think they're worth 40M+ long term. Baseball doesn't need to become the NFL with it's inflation for QBs getting paid stupid money compared to the rest of the roster. A fair deal for Vlad would be 10 yrs for around 325-350M total.

 

[Lunatik]

There's no one other than Ohtani who is worth anywhere near 600M regardless of contract length and that's mainly because of the revenue he cane generate from Japan. The Soto contract has obviously influenced Vlad and I hope it doesn't start the delusion amongst players who think they're worth 40M+ long term. Baseball doesn't need to become the NFL with it's inflation for QBs getting paid stupid money compared to the rest of the roster. A fair deal for Vlad would be 10 yrs for around 325-350M total.

I disagree.

Ohtani isn't going to be a 2-way player much longer, he's already had his second TJ surgery and he's a decent amount older, being almost 30 when he signed. Soto and Vlad are going to have primes of ~4 years longer under their deals... also while Soto got more dollars overall, he's paid 20m a year less because of term

 

[Bjindaho]

There's no one other than Ohtani who is worth anywhere near 600M regardless of contract length and that's mainly because of the revenue he cane generate from Japan. The Soto contract has obviously influenced Vlad and I hope it doesn't start the delusion amongst players who think they're worth 40M+ long term. Baseball doesn't need to become the NFL with it's inflation for QBs getting paid stupid money compared to the rest of the roster. A fair deal for Vlad would be 10 yrs for around 325-350M total.

None of this makes sense.

The NFL's QB contract problem is largely due to self-inflicted problems (not developing quarterbacks as a whole and a system that skews the pay by position dramatically).

Contracts are going to go up over time (nature of money) and worrying about the dollars and cents is only useful if a specific contract prevents the team from doing something else.

 

[landy92mack29]

I disagree.

Ohtani isn't going to be a 2-way player much longer, he's already had his second TJ surgery and he's a decent amount older, being almost 30 when he signed. Soto and Vlad are going to have primes of ~4 years longer under their deals... also while Soto got more dollars overall, he's paid 20m a year less because of term

Ohtani is worth it because of his brand and revenue making ability for his team more than pure talent, plus most was deferred money. On pure talent+age Witt Jr is the only one I'd give 500M to long term

 

[Lunatik]

Ohtani is worth it because of his brand and revenue making ability for his team more than pure talent, plus most was deferred money. On pure talent+age Witt Jr is the only one I'd give 500M to long term

the deferred money doesn't make a lick of difference, contrary to what many think, that money has to be placed in an investment account at the time it's earned. So the Dodgers aren't dishing out the money in 10 years, they are paying into an account every payday.

 

[Bjindaho]

Ohtani is worth it because of his brand and revenue making ability for his team more than pure talent, plus most was deferred money. On pure talent+age Witt Jr is the only one I'd give 500M to long term

Ohtani makes 46M per year. Over the past 4 years, he has averaged 9.25 bWAR per year. There have only been 298 seasons above 9.2bWAR in MLB history. Trout just missed that mark in his best 4 years, and before that you have to go back to Bonds, Johnson and Martinez.

Soto gets so much because he is the youngest star free agent since A-Rod (more prime).

 

[Bjindaho]

the deferred money doesn't make a lick of difference, contrary to what many think, that money has to be placed in an investment account at the time it's earned. So the Dodgers aren't dishing out the money in 10 years, they are paying into an account every payday.

Deferred money makes a huge difference.

For accounting purposes, all future money has to be calculated as if it were invested in such a way as to incur interest. Paying 70M in 10 years invested at just under 5% interest is the equivalent to 46M today. For the Dodgers, that is a huge savings (because they will logically still be a very valuable team at that point). For Ohtani, he still gets paid 700M, but he makes more when he isn't playing (when his potential earnings are lower) and can actively plan for the tax implications (meaning that he can keep significantly more).

 

[phillipmike]

I saw that stupid CBS article. There's no universe in which Tucker should get that little. By bWAR, he's the 9th best player since 2020 behind Ohtani, Judge, Soto, Betts, Ramirez, Freeman, Wheeler, and Semien.

Of the guys above him, Ohtani, Judge and Soto are better players making more than that. Betts signed 4 years ago and was 28 (would get a lot more money now) and was strictly playing RF. Ramirez signed a team-friendly extension and reportedly refused to negotiate with teams outside of Cleveland (would have received significantly more otherwise). Freeman was 31 with a track record like Vladdy's (and actually has seen an uptick in his offense since he moved). Wheeler is on a 3 year deal worth more (and is the best pitcher in baseball right now). Semien made a lot less than he should have in retrospect, but he had an albatross year before Toronto signed him and has been better since his first free agency.

The thing about Tucker is that he posted a 4.7bWAR in half a season. If he does that over a full year, that would put him within 1bWAR of Soto.

In summary, he should definitely get 40M as a base threshold with a real possibility that he gets closer to 50.

Interesting, i will keep my eye for that because i have Tucker getting a lot less than Guerrero (total) due to age - AAV maybe similar but im referring to contract totals. But understandable with the volatility of the market for young stars. I just dont see guys like Vlad and Tucker in that echelon and i see Vlad being more marketable than Tucker, hence the higher cost. But Tucker has a better track record both in the regular season and playoffs. All this goes out the window if the rich teams are desperate and throw money like they did with Soto.

 

[Bjindaho]

Interesting, i will keep my eye for that because i have Tucker getting a lot less than Guerrero (total) due to age - AAV maybe similar but im referring to contract totals. But understandable with the volatility of the market for young stars. I just dont see guys like Vlad and Tucker in that echelon and i see Vlad being more marketable than Tucker, hence the higher cost. But Tucker has a better track record both in the regular season and playoffs. All this goes out the window if the rich teams are desperate and throw money like they did with Soto.

The biggest thing driving up deals is scarcity.

Over the past 5 years, only Freeman and Olson have been better than Vlad for 1B. Both are in their 30s and Vlad's peak is well above Olson's. After Vlad, the next best are Yandy Diaz (played both 3B and 1B), Alonso and Walker.

Tucker is 13th overall, but behind only Judge and Soto for OF (Betts should never have been in RF). After Tucker, the next 3 are Acuna, Tatis and Nimmo.

Here's the thing. The next best FA at 1B in 2025 is Alonso (Opt-out) or Naylor. In 2026, it is Alonso. In 2027, it is Freeman or Walker. The next best FA in the OF in 2025 is Schwarber/O'Neill/Bellinger. In 2026, it is likely Varsho/Springer/Bellinger. In 2027, it is Santander, Kwan or LouBob.

 

[aingefan]

Peyton Williams is a large man.