These are my two outlooks as a fan. 1. Both Bo and Vladdy use the contract year as motivation, end up mashing, team overachieves, Scherzer stabilizes the bottom of the rotation and they go nuclear at the trade deadline and go for it with massive trades. Or the more likely scenario, both players have decent years, we’re like 5-7 GB of the last WC spot and we go nuclear and trade off a ton of our roster and start the very very long rebuild
Blue Jays Discussion: 2024-25 Off-season: The free agent watch begins (and sometimes old baseball radio broadcasts)
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Canada4Gold
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- Dec 22, 2010
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You think that the Jays offer to Vladdy was something like 30 million for 5 years? What? 150 million? Am I missing something in the conversation here? The Jays were certainly over 300 million and possibly over 400. Sounds like Vladdy wants 500+. I must be missing your point here.
Vladdy's had 2 great and 1 good season along with 3 mediocre/bad ones. If he has another good/mediocre season instead of a great one he likely doesn't get 300 milllion, and might not even come close. If the Jays are offering 400 he's absolutely going to get a lot less than he could today.
Scotianhab
Registered User
AA would have Vladdy & Bo locked up 2/3 years ago
The 150M offer was after 2021 so it would have been 7 years or more (bc of arb years).
The 340M offer this offseason is either too short (to make the AAV make sense) or too low in AAV (anything 12 years or over puts this around his current AAV)
Fwiw, Soto has an AAV of 51M (youngest free agent in a long time).
Ohtani has a 46M AAV because of deferrals but will make 700M total.
Judge has the only straight up deal at 9/360 to cover his 31-39 seasons. He's also better but the entire term being in his 30s factors in.
45M per seems awfully rich IMO, but it gives you a number to counter against. Also, you could theoretically do that exact number but structure it to drop the tax value down significantly via deferrals and it gets a lot easier financially.
Just ran the numbers. If the Jays did 13 years/585M with 2M per year then the remaining 43M per year after the term is over, Vlad's tax hit (and the budget allocation) would be 26.476M per year (the Ohtani structure)
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But... why would Vladdy take that? If he's looking for $500 million, he's not likely looking for "$500 million hit most of it deferred so the value is more like $300 million".
That's been my thinking too... if his ask is really that high, then what he really wants is to go to free agency. The only difference between him and Soto is that Soto said all along he wanted to reach free agency and Vlad said he wanted to stay.
I don't doubt he wants to be a Jay for life, but it seems like that's second to getting the biggest contract he can get. Maybe if we're lucky the Jays will be the team he comes back to and allows to match any deal he gets instead of the other way around.
Tax
If he gets 13 years, 585M straight, he owes tax on all that (likely to Canada based on Ontario tax rates if he has a residence in Toronto)
If he gets 2M for 13 years, he pays taxes on that, but the 13 years at 43M he will likely be a resident of the D-R for (top tax bracket there is 25% so the money he keeps is significantly higher that way).
The thing about deferrals is that the player still gets their money (and likely gets it when they are living a less extravagant lifestyle) and with little chance of making that kind of money at that age, it is never bad for them. For a business, it is just spreading out the cost over a longer period.
tmlfan98
No More Excuses #MarnerOut
Here's what I got:
Wagner DH
Bo SS
Vlad 1B
Santander RF
Barger 3B
Springer LF
Gimenez 2B
Kirk C
Loperfido/Lukes CF
Straw won't be anywhere near the team don't worry. The Jays are actually more incentivized to never add him to the 40-man vs. adding him to the 40-man because of how close Straw is to reaching 5 years of service time.
The weak side platoon bats who would pair with Wagner, Barger and Loperfido/Lukes are Clement (3B), Clase (CF) and Davis Schneider (DH). You might be thinking "Where's Orelvis?" I don't think he makes the team out of spring training unless he earns legit playing time at a position in the field (aka not as a weak side platoon bat or the primary DH).
I think Clement gets the bulk of the time at 3B unless Barger proves himself or Wagner shows he can handle the position. Other than that I agree with what you have there.
I REALLY want to see Orelvis or Roden force their way onto the roster in Spring Training because I think they have the best chance of having a significant impact this year. But Orelvis missed almost half the season and Roden isn't on the 40-man, so I don't expect it.
Canada4Gold
Registered User
- Dec 22, 2010
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Ok I thought you meant the 150 offer was now based on the phrasing of "Based on that, their offer to Vladdy is likely something like his current AAV (maybe plus a little bit) over a term of say 5 years.".
I think the Jays probably ended up above 340 but even still Vladdy has only 2 elite level years on his resume and 3 years below 1.5 fWAR. If he had a mediocre year this year, lets say equal to his 2023 season of 1.3 fWAR and 118 wRC+ I don't think he sniffs 300 million and only breaks 200 million because he's young enough the offers will likely be lengthy but the AAV will be a lot lower than he's expecting. If that scenario unfolded he would have 7 years of service with only 2 elite years, 4 years of sub 1.5 fWAR baseball and coming off one of those years. Even if 340 million was the biggest offer the Jays got to(I think they were closer to 400 if not over 400) he's risking probably over 100 million dollars to try to get 500+ million when I don't think he gets that even with another 2024 equivalent season. That's the part of your post that I mainly object with
By bWAR, he has two 6+, a 4 and 2 2s so far. There is a huge disparity between the 2 measures.
Curious as to why Orelvis isn't pencilled into most lineups, he's our best prospect and provides the offense this team sorely needs, anyone able to provide insight.
Personally, there are two factors: I'm assuming they'll want him getting reps in Buffalo for a bit after missing almost the entire second half with his suspension, and there are enough other solid options that he may not get full-time at bats right away.
I would like to see him make it because it's exactly the offensive upside they need, but I think he'll need to have a huge spring.
I imagine it’s because he missed the end of last year and doesn’t really have a position.
Best power in the upper minors, so, not inconceivable that he forces his way onto the team, but not sure what position he plays. Give him a trapper, see if he can handle some first.
Woodman19
Registered User
- Jun 14, 2008
- 18,702
- 2,271
Just bunch anybody that can hit at the top of the order. Doesnt matter what anyone makes and dont worry about players feelings.
Suntouchable13
Registered User
I forgot about Barger. Would be nice if he panned out. Tons of power. About Wagner, though, do we really want a young player like that to DH all the time? I think he needs a defensive position. We'll see.
I’m hoping he ends up being what Cavan Biggio started out being. But hopefully staying that way. With an outside chance/adjustment away from adding some power.
I can see him getting AB’s all over. Spelling at 1B, 2B, 3B and some DH.
There’s a pathway where he gets in most of the games.
SpezDispenser
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- Aug 15, 2007
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I’m just thinking of the best spot for him to get at bats and maybe sone succession planning.
Pretty clear that Vladdy wanted to get to FA.
I don’t remember the history of OMart defensively, but he hasn’t found a home at short second or third.
If he can smooth out his D at another spot, he’s more valuable. But he can rake, most power in the system. It won’t be long before his bat works it’s way into the lineup I don’t think.
It’s hard to guage who’s gonna break out to take AB’s to start the year, but both Barger and Lopefido have plenty of over the fence power, and both has holes in their swing that were exploited abit.
I keep saying, there are a good handful of prospect bats on the cusp who are getting underrated. There’s six guys who project to be good full time players who are on the verge at AAA who will fight for playing time.
Camp could be really exciting this year with a good chance that some of these guys break out.
