Blue Jays Discussion: 2024-25 Off-season: The free agent watch begins (and sometimes old baseball radio broadcasts)

[saska sault]

At the end of the day.... I could see 2 best case scenarios for the current Jays situation, if you assume that Vlad and Bo will be in their final year as Blue Jays.

1 - Vlad & Bo have great seasons, trying to up their free agency value as high as they can.. the Jays have a good season. Guys they need to bounce back, do that and other guys develop and progress and they make the playoffs. Vlad and Bo eventually leave and you get compensation picks which is less than ideal but the rest of the roster shows promise and its not the end of the world.

2 - Vlad & Bo get traded and the Jays end of getting a haul, they get some really high end top 100 prospects from a team looking to get their final pieces to push them over the top and the Jays get set up nicely for the future and life after what was suppose to be the core.

There is a possibility neither of those happen but at least there is some chance that they can come out of the tunnel with some light.

 

[shaner8989]

Getting comp picks for them would be the biggest disgrace in sports history.

There are 2 options.

1. Trade
2. Resign

Thats it.

 

[Bjindaho]

Be really interesting to see what kind of year Vlad has. Could you imagine he hits 270 this year? Do the offers on the open market change?

The last time Vlad hit .270, he was better than 3 of Alonso's last 4 years. He's also 4 years younger than Alonso.

Alonso only had 2 teams bidding on him (where Vladdy figures to have more than that).

Based on that alone, 7 years for 210M would be the absolute floor of an offer that wouldn't be a straight insult (again, that's assuming no deferrals). Once you start deferring, that could easily approach 340M as the absolute floor.

Because he's a 1B and would theoretically make a great DH when he can't play the field, there's no real reason not to offer a longer deal (plus it lowers the tax bill).

 

[Bjindaho]

What positions to you see them as having downgraded from 3 years ago to now? Because I see three, but I also see three obvious upgrades. I don't see the rotation as being any worse (outside of Manoah collapsing) and the pen is a toss-up.

In that scenario, you go from Gurriel / Teoscar / Springer to Loperfido / Varsho / Santander, from Chapman to Clement, from Bo to Gimenez, from Merrifield/Biggio to Wagner (unproven), from Guerrero to ?, and from Belt to ?.

For the rotation, we are talking about a team that had Stripling (replaced by Bassitt), Kikuchi (replaced by Francis), and Ryu. Essentially, Scherzer has taken Ryu's spot (because Manoah has had some issues, which were likely injury like he said), but the depth is very thin.

This all highlights the lack of internal progression. Here are some hilarious leaderboards (fWAR from 2019-2024 combined) where the contribution of players who played in the minors for the Jays is the top 3 (Guerrero, Bo, Kirk), Teo, Jansen, then Biggio (6.4), Gurriel (6.4), Espinal (4.5), Clement (2.7), Schneider (2.3), Horwitz (2.0), Moreno (0.8) and Manoah (5.4), Romano (3.7), Stroman (3.0), Mayza (2.0), Thornton (1.7), Francis (1.2), Rodriguez (1.0)

Major League Leaderboards - 2019 to 2024 - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball

www.fangraphs.com

Major League Leaderboards - 2019 to 2024 - Pitching | FanGraphs Baseball

www.fangraphs.com

 

[Westlander]

Ok, but if they were never the guys or that good then shouldn't they have traded them years ago? Isn't that the job of the front office to know what you have?

Definitely the front office are to blame here, their indecision leading up to this point was the worst possible handling of the situation(s).
For the record I wish they weren’t leaving and I think they are really good building blocks, but maybe not at all costs. Vladdy in particular seems to reckon himself among the super-elite, which he isn’t.

 

[Fantomas]

Only thing Vlad has over him is the gold glove.

Does the gold glove really mean anything. It's a bit of a joke.

 

[Blitzkrug]

Does the gold glove really mean anything. It's a bit of a joke.

At first base? Not really. Least valuable defensive position on the diamond.

Gold glove absolutely matters at spots like Shortstop, center field and 3rd base though.

 

[tmlfan98]

Springer moving to LF this season is lowkey kind of a big deal for 2025. Santander is (ideally) a RF/DH only, he is absolutely putrid defensively in LF.

With Springer moving to LF he can probably handle it better than Santander, given that CF was his original position. Which means that Santander's WAR output isn't going to be neutered automatically, by having to force him to be the LF.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Springer moving to LF this season is lowkey kind of a big deal for 2025. Santander is (ideally) a RF/DH only, he is absolutely putrid defensively in LF.

With Springer moving to LF he can probably handle it better than Santander, given that CF was his original position. Which means that Santander's WAR output isn't going to be neutered automatically, by having to force him to be the LF.

Springer is still on of my favourites. Great guy, great teammate. Never complains, and never takes his offensive struggles out to the field.

 

[Discoverer]

Springer moving to LF this season is lowkey kind of a big deal for 2025. Santander is (ideally) a RF/DH only, he is absolutely putrid defensively in LF.

With Springer moving to LF he can probably handle it better than Santander, given that CF was his original position. Which means that Santander's WAR output isn't going to be neutered automatically, by having to force him to be the LF.

Have they said that's what they're doing? If so, I'm on board. I also really hope Springer isn't in the lineup every day unless he shows clear signs of having a bounceback season. They have enough young interesting guys looking for playing time in the OF that he shouldn't be an automatic.

Looking at Santander's defensive stats right now is... weird. I could have sworn he was terrible, but the last couple years he's been barely below average.

 

[DuklaNation]

Seems like a combo of team not offering enough ever in extensions while Vlad overpriced himself in each offseason. Bad negotiations. But this is why you ALWAYS prioritize farm system, it gives you many options.

When Nationals dumped Soto after failed extension talks, that was the red flag. Soto felt he could always get more, and he did eventually with Mets. Vlad had same playbook. But the appetite for big contracts like that's very limited. I don't put him in that category.

Bo Bichette should have been the focus, his demands are likely more in line with production.

 

[tmlfan98]

Have they said that's what they're doing? If so, I'm on board. I also really hope Springer isn't in the lineup every day unless he shows clear signs of having a bounceback season. They have enough young interesting guys looking for playing time in the OF that he shouldn't be an automatic.

Looking at Santander's defensive stats right now is... weird. I could have sworn he was terrible, but the last couple years he's been barely below average.

As of right now, they are only saying that Springer and Santander will split time in LF-RF. But IMO it's going to end up being Springer as the LF and Santander as the RF, once they realize that it's the optimal alignment. Santander, again, is absolutely putrid defensively in LF compared to RF. Similar to Teoscar Hernandez.

Schneider also listed the leadoff hitter options as Bichette, Gimenez, Wagner (would be a leadoff platoon with Clement probably), and Springer.

 

[Bjindaho]

It should be noted that both Bo and Vladdy should have huge trade value.

Vladdy is coming off a 6 bWAR season and has 2 of the top 20 OPS seasons in the past 4 years (others with multiple are Judge (2), Ohtani (3), Soto (2), Alvarez (2) ).

Vlad is 52nd in Active offensive bWAR with only Soto being younger ahead of him (and only a handful of youngish players above him).

Bo is 73 on the same list.

Since 2021, they are 25th and 38th overall respectively in fWAR.

Bo's DC projection is a regression on defense and offense and he'd still be an average SS. If we get last year's defense with his offense from any other year, he's likely the 3rd best SS in baseball.

In terms of suitors, Bo would be of interest to Atlanta (2nd worst projected SS position), as well as a few teams that have names (but not necessarily great SS).

For Vlad, he's the #2 rated 1B (behind Harper) and would be an upgrade for any teams outside of Philly and LA.

Putting this another way, both are behind Tucker (obviously), but ahead of anyone else traded (including Crochet).

 

[phillipmike]

Does the gold glove really mean anything. It's a bit of a joke.

I agree. i just put it there for the crowd that is pro Vladdy in case they think that i am selling him short.

 

[Bjindaho]

Some food for thought...

Vladdy put up the 2nd highest wRC+ from Apr 27 to the end of the year. All told, he was 6th overall behind Judge, Soto, Witt Jr, Ohtani and Alvarez.

Tucker will hurt his numbers (if he can re-create last year), but if Vladdy puts up 165 or higher wRC+, he'll be in rarified air in terms of free agency. He'd be worst than Judge, more 165+ seasons than Ohtani (but Ohtani brings a completely different dynamic), and ~the same as Soto (he had a 164 which is close enough, with a 180 contract year and 202 in 2020).

If Bo puts up his defense from last year, plus his hitting from years before happen, he's a 5-6 fWAR SS.

Vladdy could push himself into being able to ask for something approaching the Soto deal and Bo would arguably be the most valuable SS to hit the market since Turner (albeit younger than Turner)

 

[Bjindaho]

Shifting gears,

Springer's numbers jump out to me.

He went from a Semien/Jansen approach (pull with authority) to a use the whole field approach.

He had 3 straight years of 48% of higher pull which led to wRC+ of 143, 140, and 133.

His last two years have been 39.5 and 39.8 with the difference being almost entirely balls hit to center (big part of the park).

 

[dubplatepressure]

Some food for thought...

Vladdy put up the 2nd highest wRC+ from Apr 27 to the end of the year. All told, he was 6th overall behind Judge, Soto, Witt Jr, Ohtani and Alvarez.

Tucker will hurt his numbers (if he can re-create last year), but if Vladdy puts up 165 or higher wRC+, he'll be in rarified air in terms of free agency. He'd be worst than Judge, more 165+ seasons than Ohtani (but Ohtani brings a completely different dynamic), and ~the same as Soto (he had a 164 which is close enough, with a 180 contract year and 202 in 2020).

If Bo puts up his defense from last year, plus his hitting from years before happen, he's a 5-6 fWAR SS.

Vladdy could push himself into being able to ask for something approaching the Soto deal and Bo would arguably be the most valuable SS to hit the market since Turner (albeit younger than Turner)

Sounds like quite the TDL haul for us then.

 

[Bjindaho]

Sounds like quite the TDL haul for us then.

If they put up those kind of numbers, then the Jays will not be selling at the deadline.

At that point, they would definitely be in a playoff spot and potentially vying for the division.

 

[Discoverer]

Shifting gears,

Springer's numbers jump out to me.

He went from a Semien/Jansen approach (pull with authority) to a use the whole field approach.

He had 3 straight years of 48% of higher pull which led to wRC+ of 143, 140, and 133.

His last two years have been 39.5 and 39.8 with the difference being almost entirely balls hit to center (big part of the park).

I wonder how much of that is a change of approach vs just not having the bat speed to pull the ball the way he used to.

If it's the former, I would have plenty of confidence that he could bounce back, especially with a new hitting coach. If it's the latter, it's likely only going to get more pronounced.

Unfortunately, we only have bat speed data from the last two years.

 

[Suntouchable13]

I think i'd start with Springer in leadoff spot, see how it goes. You can always pivot later.

 

[Bjindaho]

I wonder how much of that is a change of approach vs just not having the bat speed to pull the ball the way he used to.

If it's the former, I would have plenty of confidence that he could bounce back, especially with a new hitting coach. If it's the latter, it's likely only going to get more pronounced.

Unfortunately, we only have bat speed data from the last two years.

Yes, though I did compile some count-based stats.

On 3-0 and 3-1 counts, he's been very good when he puts the ball in play.
On 3-2 counts, he was actually good in 2024 (not in 2023).

In 2-0 counts, he had a .800 OPS in 2024, a .907 OPS in 2023 and higher both years before.

In 1-0 counts, his 2024 (.881) was higher than his 2022 but lower than 2021 and 2022).

In 1-1 counts he had a ,700 which is slightly worse than 2022 (which was slightly worse than 2021 with 2020 being very good at 1-1)

At 0-1 counts, he put up a .517 (outside of 2022, every year is .622 or lower)

On 2-2 counts, he's been worse the last two years versus before.

On 1-2 counts, this year was bad, but 2021 was worse than his 2023.

On 0-2 counts, he was bad in 2024, but his 2023 was the best in 5 years.


Some striking notes in this though:
He has put significantly more 1-1 pitches in play as a Blue Jay (less success than 2021 and 2022)
He has put significantly more 1-0 pitches in play as a Blue Jay (less success than 2021 and 2022)
He's put slightly more 2-1 pitches in play as a Blue Jay compared to 2021 (less success)
He's put significantly more 0-1 pitches in play as a Blue Jay (varying success)

And the weird one, he's putting less 2-0 and 3-1 pitches in play (with less success).

 

[The Shadow]

What is management thinking? What is the longterm plan. VGjr is only 25?

 

[Bjindaho]

What is management thinking? What is the longterm plan. VGjr is only 25?

Management is thinking that what they are willing to pay Bo and Vlad is based on comparable players.

Based on that, their offer to Vladdy is likely something like his current AAV (maybe plus a little bit) over a term of say 5 years. For Bo, their last offer (before he signed the 3 year deal) was likely around the Tatis AAV over 6 years.

The problem with this logic is that the market gets more expensive every year (due to scarcity, inflation, etc). Adames (an inferior SS to Bo) just got 27+ over 7 years. Goldschmidt (an inferior 1B) had a 5 year, 130M deal for his 31-36 YO seasons.

If both guys have TERRIBLE seasons, they will still likely get the same value as what they could reasonably get today. If they have good seasons, the numbers go up (and potentially dramatically).

 

[Bjindaho]

Some guesstimates on Jays offers to Vladdy

The 340M deal would likely have been 12-13 years based on standards for career spanning deals (which would have been an AAV pay cut over his 1 year deal, which even before signing was predictable).
The 150M offer would have needed to be at least 7 years to make up for the arb years (and possibly 8 or 9)

I'm not sure that Vladdy turns down something like 13-14 years at 30 per (or even slightly less).

For Bo, I think he would have taken the Springer deal in 2023, but he's definitely going to be approaching 30 per as well on a long term deal (and arguably could ask for more).

 

[Suntouchable13]

Springer RF
Bo SS
Vlad 1B
Santa DH
Kirk C
Wagner 3B
Gimenez 2B
Clase CF
Lukes LF

Would that work if Varsho is out for the first few weeks of the season? I don't want to see Straw anywhere near this team. Let's see Wagner at 3rd also. Clement is a perfect bench guy.