Blue Jays Discussion: 2024-25 Off-season: The free agent watch begins (and sometimes old baseball radio broadcasts)

[phillipmike]

91 wRC+ with a sub-.300 OBP in the second half. I don't really see any positive signs from Springer's 2024 that would justify another shot.

Didnt finish strong and had a rough August but i remember seeing on Twitter:

First 304 PAs: 73 wRC+
Last 310 PAs: 117 wRC+

When leading off he didnt have a consistent #2 hitter behind him;

When Guerrero hit behind him for those 35 games, it was exclusively opening day until May 7th, Guerrero's wRC+ in that period was 103. After that, the 2 hole hitter was the list you see above. Very weak outside of Horwitz.

In the period where Horwitz was the #2 hitter behind Springer, Springer's wRC+ was 142, 2nd highest to Vlad. They stopped doing that so Horwitz could protect Vlad. When Vlad or Horwitz werent hitting behind Springer, Springer's wRC+ was 81.

I think another shot at leadoff with Bo behind him may help or is worth at least a shot to start the season.

 

[aingefan]

Scherzer would be a strong 3-4. But we've got Berrios who is a strong three, bassist is a 4, Francis we don't know could be anything and then obviously gauss should be a legit one excellent 2.

If we could somehow get cease that'd be nasty. Upset we missed out on Walker Buehler because he'd be pretty sweet too

Took swings at all the top rotation arms, shame it didn’t work out.
Maybe there’s something to them still looking at bullpen arms to ‘shorten games’?

 

[Dr.Funk]

So, if the Jays don't sign Alonso, who is the backup first baseman?

Will Wagner

 

[stats1]

The rumour was Mets called about Vlad and the Jays said no.

But my question is, if you heard it mentioned on Twitter that Alonso was the Mets' backup plan, did that person mention what their plan A was?

No. The main jist of it was basically Mets offered Alonso a long term deal in the range of 150-170 million and him or his agent basically said no we think we’re worth closer to 190-200 million .. clearly that’s back fired and now he’s looking for a short term deal to hit the market again down the road. The Mets could always go back to him I guess and offer him a short term deal but I’m not sure how that works when both sides are so far apart on a long term deal. Just seems like both sides are mutually parting ways

 

[stats1]

That Hector Gomez dude is saying in the next 24-48 hours expect some more news on Porfar and Scherzer lol is this guy reliable?

 

[habamillions]

I

That Hector Gomez dude is saying in the next 24-48 hours expect some more news on Porfar and Scherzer lol is this guy reliable?

Mean he did call stuff before. But been wrong too. So i wouldnt hold your breath

 

[Dr.Funk]

That Hector Gomez dude is saying in the next 24-48 hours expect some more news on Porfar and Scherzer lol is this guy reliable?

He's wrong more than he is right but he has got some stuff right in the past.

 

[cyris]

He's wrong more than he is right but he has got some stuff right in the past.

This. He is wrong more than he is right but once in a while he gets something no one else has.

 

[Avilaj07]

Might as well go all in,

Sign Profar
Sign Alonso
Sign Scherzer

Trade Bassitt

Profar
Bichette
Santander
Guerrero
Alonso
Springer
Kirk
Jimenez
Clement

Gausman
Berrios
Scherzer
Francis
Rodriguez

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

This. He is wrong more than he is right but once in a while he gets something no one else has.

Sounds a lot like luck that any knowledgeable baseball fan would exhibit.

 

[Dr.Funk]

Might as well go all in,

Sign Profar
Sign Alonso
Sign Scherzer

Trade Bassitt

Profar
Bichette
Santander
Guerrero
Alonso
Springer
Kirk
Jimenez
Clement

Gausman
Berrios
Scherzer
Francis
Rodriguez

Where is Profar playing if you sign Alonso?

Maybe when Vlad plays 3B & Alonso is at 1B you open up an OF/DH spot for him, Santander & Springer to rotate through.

Kinda think I'd rather find those ab's for Wagner

 

[aingefan]

Where is Profar playing if you sign Alonso?

Maybe when Vlad plays 3B & Alonso is at 1B you open up an OF/DH spot for him, Santander & Springer to rotate through.

Kinda think I'd rather find those ab's for Wagner

Tend to agree. If Alonso is a no, then maybe Profar.

Alonso is the best fit even with term. The best and closest prospects are more Profars profile than Alonso’s….so they’d fit better in the future.

And I’m really confident about Warner’s bat and eye translating to a good top of the order profile, lots of on base skill.

 

[Discoverer]

Tend to agree. If Alonso is a no, then maybe Profar.

Alonso is the best fit even with term. The best and closest prospects are more Profars profile than Alonso’s….so they’d fit better in the future.

And I’m really confident about Warner’s bat and eye translating to a good top of the order profile, lots of on base skill.

I feel the same way about Roden. I think we're gonna see a lot of him by the end of the season, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him get plenty of time in the leadoff spot.

 

[Puckstuff]

I feel the same way about Roden. I think we're gonna see a lot of him by the end of the season, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him get plenty of time in the leadoff spot.

Roden and the AAA guys is why Profar doesn't feel that exciting, also he flops every other year and his defense isn't very good. Also, he will be taking away at-bats from Wagner. How much of an upgrade is Profar over Roden/Martinez/Wagner? Maybe 1 WAR?

Scherzer, on the other hand, is effectively replacing the worst guy in the bullpen, which is a 2 WAR upgrade, since Scherzer goes to the rotation, and Rodriguez moves to the bullpen, effectively knocking out the worst guy in the pen.

 

[Canada4Gold]

No thanks to Profar. Really don't want to go there. I'm all in on Alonso.

 

[Puckstuff]

No thanks to Profar. Really don't want to go there. I'm all in on Alonso.

I don’t know about Alonso being a great long-term fit since Vlad/Santander will be enough at 1B and DH—but Alonso and Scherzer on 1-year deals for 2025 would be epic…Santander can play outfield in 2025. Vlad and Alonso split 1B/DH.

 

[Avilaj07]

Where is Profar playing if you sign Alonso?

Maybe when Vlad plays 3B & Alonso is at 1B you open up an OF/DH spot for him, Santander & Springer to rotate through.

Kinda think I'd rather find those ab's for Wagner

Profar-LF
Bichette- shortstop
Santander-DH
Guerrero-3rd base
Alonso-1st base
Springer-RF
Kirk- C
Jimenez- 2nd base
Varsho-CF

Obviously with that lineup, our defense takes a huge hit but it also gives you a very potent offense that should do damage. Having Varsho are center also helps to cover Springer and Profar in the outfield

 

[stats1]

I agree, I’m also all in on Alonso, Profar is a big meh for me. Plus where do you play him? Imo Wagner would be a better fit than Profar. Young guy, showed a lot of promise last year. I’d rather play him than a vet like Profar who is very inconsistent

 

[Discoverer]

Didnt finish strong and had a rough August but i remember seeing on Twitter:

First 304 PAs: 73 wRC+
Last 310 PAs: 117 wRC+

When leading off he didnt have a consistent #2 hitter behind him;

View attachment 965466

When Guerrero hit behind him for those 35 games, it was exclusively opening day until May 7th, Guerrero's wRC+ in that period was 103. After that, the 2 hole hitter was the list you see above. Very weak outside of Horwitz.

In the period where Horwitz was the #2 hitter behind Springer, Springer's wRC+ was 142, 2nd highest to Vlad. They stopped doing that so Horwitz could protect Vlad. When Vlad or Horwitz werent hitting behind Springer, Springer's wRC+ was 81.

I think another shot at leadoff with Bo behind him may help or is worth at least a shot to start the season.

He had a crazy hot streak that lasted nearly a month in the middle of the season that prevented his numbers from being a complete disaster last year, but then he dropped back off and was bad the rest of the way.

He's had nearly 1300 PA the last two years with a 100 wRC+. At 35, that's not likely to reverse. I can accept that he's going to be handed a starting job (though hopefully a guy like Lukes starts to take some of his playing time away), but he's a league average bat who belongs in the bottom half of the lineup - he's no better offensively than Varsho, Kirk, and Clement.

 

[Puckstuff]

I agree, I’m also all in on Alonso, Profar is a big meh for me. Plus where do you play him? Imo Wagner would be a better fit than Profar. Young guy, showed a lot of promise last year. I’d rather play him than a vet like Profar who is very inconsistent

If the Jays actually manage to get Alonso, they need to lock up Vlad immediately. You just know Steve Cohen will start using the media to tamper and signal that the Mets are targeting Vlad in free agency, (that's already started). Plus, he probably wasn't thrilled about the Jays driving up the price on Soto.

 

[phillipmike]

He had a crazy hot streak that lasted nearly a month in the middle of the season that prevented his numbers from being a complete disaster last year, but then he dropped back off and was bad the rest of the way.

He's had nearly 1300 PA the last two years with a 100 wRC+. At 35, that's not likely to reverse. I can accept that he's going to be handed a starting job (though hopefully a guy like Lukes starts to take some of his playing time away), but he's a league average bat who belongs in the bottom half of the lineup - he's no better offensively than Varsho, Kirk, and Clement.

I’m not expecting him to be an all star again. I’m expecting him to be given a chance to lead off again with a healthy lineup and be better than last year.

With a healthy lineup, I think he can be better than league average.

Even Steamer has him for a projected 109 wRC+ and a 2+ WAR season. I’d gladly take that and see it as a big improvement from last season.

 

[Discoverer]

I’m not expecting him to be an all star again. I’m expecting him to be given a chance to lead off again with a healthy lineup and be better than last year.

With a healthy lineup, I think he can be better than league average.

Even Steamer has him for a projected 109 wRC+ and a 2+ WAR season. I’d gladly take that and see it as a big improvement from last season.

I'd gladly take that, too. But I don't expect it.

 

[Bjindaho]

I’m not expecting him to be an all star again. I’m expecting him to be given a chance to lead off again with a healthy lineup and be better than last year.

With a healthy lineup, I think he can be better than league average.

Even Steamer has him for a projected 109 wRC+ and a 2+ WAR season. I’d gladly take that and see it as a big improvement from last season.

I don't want him anywhere near the leadoff spot.

Bo is a straight up better hitter.

We need Bo, Vladdy, Santander at the top. You could argue after that, but they should be the top 3.

 

[Discoverer]

I don't want him anywhere near the leadoff spot.

Bo is a straight up better hitter.

We need Bo, Vladdy, Santander at the top. You could argue after that, but they should be the top 3.

They have a couple guys (Wagner and Roden in particular) who have fantastic track records of getting on base at a high rate in the minors. I'm hoping one of those guys establishes himself and takes over the leadoff spot.

Bo works as a placeholder, but he has enough extra base power that I think there's lots of value in having him come up as often as possible with runners on. Wagner/Bo/Vladdy/Santander would be awesome, but I also understand that's not likely to happen until we've seen a bit more out of Wagner.

 

[Puckstuff]

They have a couple guys (Wagner and Roden in particular) who have fantastic track records of getting on base at a high rate in the minors. I'm hoping one of those guys establishes himself and takes over the leadoff spot.

Bo works as a placeholder, but he has enough extra base power that I think there's lots of value in having him come up as often as possible with runners on. Wagner/Bo/Vladdy/Santander would be awesome, but I also understand that's not likely to happen until we've seen a bit more out of Wagner.

If you want Bo to hit with runners on, hitting him leadoff wouldn’t give him more RBI opportunities. Personally I'd want Gimenez 1st, Bo 2nd, Vlad 3rd, Santander 4th.