Blue Jays Discussion: 2024-25 Off-season: The free agent watch begins (and sometimes old baseball radio broadcasts)

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Some quick thoughts:

Hopefully, Santander is playing RF with Springer in LF. If the Jays need a CF for the beginning of the year, Loperfido is a strong candidate to be the starter (Lukes is a strong candidate to be 4th outfielder, with Loperfido either starting with Varsho on IL or getting sent down if Varsho is good to go to get reps in). Straw and Lukes should be battling each other (Straw brings speed and defense where Lukes's bat profile is interesting).

Across the infield, Clement got robbed out of a gold glove and his crazy low K rate suggests that his offense could theoretically improve. The biggest thing is that his BB rate needs to improve (he's a 5-8% guy in the minors with sub-2.5 in the majors). The difference between the two is the difference between him being average (with no other improvements) and slightly below average.

Bichette is the shortstop and assuming he's back to 100%, he should be solid.

Gimenez is the best defensive 2B the Jays have had since Semien at least (possibly above that level). Offensively, he struggled to barrel the ball last year, and hit too many fly balls the year before.

Vlad is Vlad at 1st.

Kirk gets a lot of criticism but he's still seen as one of the better catchers in baseball. He got better when he played more last year. His biggest problem was hitting less balls hard (it's a slight difference, but it is likely from pulling less pitches, since that is the easiest way to hit the ball hard without changing your swing).

Schneider is one of the backups. One of the takeaways of the last few years has been a noticeable move to "use all fields". This completely undermines the approach that makes some players successful. 50 to 46 is only slight but when all 4% goes the other way, it means that most of those extra balls are going to be outs. This has been a consistent problem within the organization (he actually has good numbers on balls to right, but the shift means more fly balls in the big part of the park).

Heineman is the likely backup although all of the options figure to be about the same. They are all glove first catchers.

Wagner is likely on the team and should be a contributor, but where he plays is yet to be determined. He is more of a bat-first utility guy (like Biggio before the Ks caught up which is not a problem that Wagner has ever had).

After that, Barger, Jimenez and Orelvis could be competing for one spot. Orelvis is a candidate to take 3B away from Clement if he makes it (given his power profile), whereas Barger might be a strong-side platoon option who can play 3B/OF and Jimenez runs a Kirk-like offensive profile with speed and fielding.

The rotation is Gausman/Berrios/Bassitt/Scherzer/Francis in some order.

The bullpen has set pieces in:
Rodriguez / Sandlin / Swanson / Garcia / Green / Hoffman

The last two spots are battles with the lefty spot between:

Little (120 Stuff+ sinker, 94 cutter, 120 knuckle-curve) who throws 94.5
Walker (99 fastball, 84 sinker, 106 curveball) throwing 94.2
Garrett (100 fastball, 105 sinker, 110 slider) throwing 95.6
Lovelady (96 fastball, 111 sinker, 104 slider) throwing 92.4
Lucas (100 fastball, 95 sinker, 102 cutter, 120 slider, 92 change-up) throwing 94.2

All stuff+ values and velocity are from last year and all velocities are 4 seamers except Little who doesn't throw 4 seamers (Lucas has a sizeable velocity difference between fastball and sinker and everyone else throws them at similar velocity)

The other spot could be someone above or:
Nance (84 fastball, 104 sinker, 105 slider, 101 curveball) throwing 95.3
Pop (106 sinker, 92 cutter, 120 slider) throwing 96.2
Burr (88 fastball, 88 slider) throwing 94.1
Roberston (94 fastball, 101 cutter, 127 slider, 92 changeup) throwing 94.3
Barnes (103 fastball, 94 cutter, 97 slider) throwing 95.4

The significance of Stuff+ is that high quality pitches are generally very good and lower scoring ones generally aren't. A slight change in approach could make a massive difference (a guy like Pop abandoning a 92 cutter for two very good pitches could make all the difference in his performance. Robertson's slider was elite last year, with Little having the 11th best sinker and 9th best knucklecurve (small sample size).
Adding on to this with the Yarborough signing (minor league with invite),

he actually had better Stuff+ with LA, but every single pitch was individually better with Toronto, meaning that he threw less curveballs and cutters and was more effective (90 fastball, 89 sinker, 102 cutter, 136 curveball, 100 changeup overall). Ironically, he dropped his cutter use (decent score pitch) and slightly lowered his curveball rate (elite pitch) and replaced it with 4 and 2 seamers which he controlled better.
 
Adding on to this with the Yarborough signing (minor league with invite),

he actually had better Stuff+ with LA, but every single pitch was individually better with Toronto, meaning that he threw less curveballs and cutters and was more effective (90 fastball, 89 sinker, 102 cutter, 136 curveball, 100 changeup overall). Ironically, he dropped his cutter use (decent score pitch) and slightly lowered his curveball rate (elite pitch) and replaced it with 4 and 2 seamers which he controlled better.
Yarbrough was great for the Jays, so I'm glad they're bringing him back. There are some worrying signs in his peripherals, so it's nice that they've got him on a minor league deal. Nice move all around.

Hopefully he doesn't opt out and they can start him off with Buffalo if they choose to. If they need Rodriguez to start at any point, Yarbrough would be a great option to back-fill the long-man spot in the pen.
 
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I think Yarbrough has a good shot at making the team. They liked what they saw from him last year after the Dodgers dumped his money on them as the Kiermaier return, and with the 6 years of service time he's already accrued, there's probably an early season opt out if he's not on the roster by a certain point.

They probably hold him on the 26-man as starter depth, and YRod could see more high leverage bullpen usage himself (as opposed to being the only swingman/6th starter in the bullpen).
 
I think Yarbrough has a good shot at making the team. They liked what they saw from him last year after the Dodgers dumped his money on them as the Kiermaier return, and with the 6 years of service time he's already accrued, there's probably an early season opt out if he's not on the roster by a certain point.

They probably hold him on the 26-man as starter depth, and YRod could see more high leverage bullpen usage himself (as opposed to being the only swingman/6th starter in the bullpen).
Yarbrough didn't start a single game last year. He makes sense as a bulk guy (Rodriguez actually makes more sense as a 1 inning guy if he's in the pen).
 
That's what I meant. He basically "starts" behind an opener.
Opener! smh. Hoping that term eventually gets relegated to the dustbin of history. Anybody know if MLB is going to seriously consider the 6 inning starter proposal that was suggested last year? Count me in.
 
Imagine the Leafs offered McDavid or Makar a max contract next offseason, Quinn Hughes one the year after then told Matthews they could only do 10 per.

Again, it has nothing to do what they offered Ohtani and Soto. Vladdy's camp is relying more on what Ohtani and Soto SIGNED for not what the Jays offered them.

My point is if the Jays didnt make offers to Ohtani and Soto, no way Vladdy is asking for less. Vladdy may care about what the Jays offered to them, but regardless of what they offered, he was always going to use these $700M figures as a negotiation tactic to get more the moment those numbers were announced.
 


Although the 34-year-old said there were “a lot of teams calling for me” once he hit the open market, “the Blue Jays were my first priority. I had a good feeling I will be back here when I got traded. I like it here. I had a good meeting when I left with Ross (Atkins). I like how they treat people, your family and the players. It's a little bit different than other teams.”
 
View attachment 979566

Vlad on insta liking a photoshop of him in a Yankees uniform. Alright man, time to trade you.

For the sake of this guys sanity, you need to trade him. Toronto fans can be ruthless when they feel slighted. If he gets off to a slow start, heaven help him. there will be boo's jeers, you're a greedy bastard chants raining down on him. He's a hot hot cold cold type player. Atkins your a dumbass if you let him play one minute of preseason, what if he pops his Achilles rounding 1st base and is lost for the season? Twists a knee and is gone for half the season?

It's time to turn the page and build for the future. Trade Vlad before you cant.

Wow, a lot of fellow Jays fans honestly have no spine. It's actually sickening to see Jays fans turning on Vlad and Shatkins now winning the PR battle, just because Vlad liked a photoshop of him in a Yankees uniform on Instagram.

Meanwhile, when he did the same thing with a Red Sox big 3 photoshop of Devers/Soto/Vlad (before Soto signed), no one really cared, presumably because a lot of Jays fans just assumed in blind faith that Shatkins would get it done by Vlad's deadline.

Now that Jays fans are actually staring down the barrel of Vlad leaving in FA as a realistic possibility, now all of a sudden they hate the photoshops. So disingenuous.

Logo on the front before the name on the back.
 
Again, it has nothing to do what they offered Ohtani and Soto. Vladdy's camp is relying more on what Ohtani and Soto SIGNED for not what the Jays offered them.

My point is if the Jays didnt make offers to Ohtani and Soto, no way Vladdy is asking for less. Vladdy may care about what the Jays offered to them, but regardless of what they offered, he was always going to use these $700M figures as a negotiation tactic to get more the moment those numbers were announced.
This isn't an opinion. It is straight up BS.

340M would be the 4th biggest contract in MLB history. Everybody even near that is better and Vlad is only the 2nd best FA next offseason.

If the Jays didn't make stupid offers, their best ever offer would be the Springer deal. Offering 340 behind that should be competitive.

Otoh, when you offer close to 700M to two players and miss, you have to expect your stars to want their piece of the pie.

Situation 1 would be like arguing that the 5th best champagne should be worth more because Dom Perignon 57 is.

Situation 2 would be like saying the 5th best champagne should cost more because it is in a "rich" neighborhood.
 
This isn't an opinion. It is straight up BS.

340M would be the 4th biggest contract in MLB history. Everybody even near that is better and Vlad is only the 2nd best FA next offseason.

If the Jays didn't make stupid offers, their best ever offer would be the Springer deal. Offering 340 behind that should be competitive.

Otoh, when you offer close to 700M to two players and miss, you have to expect your stars to want their piece of the pie.

Situation 1 would be like arguing that the 5th best champagne should be worth more because Dom Perignon 57 is.

Situation 2 would be like saying the 5th best champagne should cost more because it is in a "rich" neighborhood.
The idea that Vladdy would be asking for less if the Jays hadn't tried to sign Ohtani and Soto is ridiculous.

It may have made him believe the Jays would be willing to meet his asking price, but the asking price will be set by what other players actually sign for, not what the Jays offered. If the Jays weren't involved in the Ohtani/Soto bidding, there's no way Vlad would be asking for less.
 
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This isn't an opinion. It is straight up BS.

340M would be the 4th biggest contract in MLB history. Everybody even near that is better and Vlad is only the 2nd best FA next offseason.

If the Jays didn't make stupid offers, their best ever offer would be the Springer deal. Offering 340 behind that should be competitive.

Otoh, when you offer close to 700M to two players and miss, you have to expect your stars to want their piece of the pie.

Situation 1 would be like arguing that the 5th best champagne should be worth more because Dom Perignon 57 is.

Situation 2 would be like saying the 5th best champagne should cost more because it is in a "rich" neighborhood.
Ask yourself, you are Vladdy;

Scenario 1: Ohtani gets $700M and Soto gets $765M. Jays didn’t pursue them and made offers. What are you asking the Jays for?

Scenario 2: Ohtani gets $700M and Soto gets $765M. Jays pursued both and made offers. What are you asking the Jays for?

Vladdy’s ask isn’t any different in either scenario. And if you honestly think in scenario 1, you are asking for less then scenario 2, you as the player failed to read the market and on top of that, your agent failed you.

Your agents job is to use other offers to bump your own up rather not care about how the team may have made you felt while pursuing other players (see Alonso and the Mets).
 

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