2024/25 Leafs vs 2025/26 Leafs. Which team has a better shot at the Stanley Cup?

[LegChairGM]

I just had an interesting question pop into my head, which will be the better Leaf team, this years team or next years? With some significant changes expected due to Marner and Tavares being unrestricted free agents and some very notable players also potentially hitting the market from other teams it will be interesting. You also have to factor in the value of another season of development for Cowan, Knies, Minten, etc. as well as another year of play on the trio of older defensemen that we have(Tanev, OEL, McCabe).

I personally think the 2025/2026 Toronto Maple Leafs will be a superior team as I'm expecting the Tavares cap hit to be used to shore up the top 9 forward group with some more playoff focused players(proven track record of playoff success) - even if he resigns(will be far less than 11m) with the same being said for Marner's cap hit as from what I've seen it looks like this is his last season with the team.

Still have high expectations for this season though.

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[Ianturnedbull]

I know it's difficult to forecast this season, but it's near impossible to do next season.

I don't think it's as simple as moving on from 2 x 11 million dollar players will bring TOR success. Who will be available in 25-26 to sign as free agents? Are they willing to play in TOR? What if Marner signs a new contract with TOR? He'll get a raise, and there won't be a lot left (even with a spare 11 million).

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

If I knew the answer to that question I wouldn't be on this website because that would mean that I would have the ability to see the future and I'd have more money than Elon Musk.

Unfortunately I am not an X men, and cannot see the future

 

[Tie Domi Esquire]

Tie. They have zero chance in any of those seasons.

 

[mjd1001]

Its close, but I am going to say this year.

I don't like the competition they are going to be facing 2-3 years down the road. The Leafs haven't gotten by the 'roadblocks' in the playoffs in terms of other teams, but that is on the Leafs, they didn't face the 21-22 Avalanche type team along the way.

Every year that goes by, I see a chance New Jersey turns into that type of team. I see Ottawa or Buffalo...one of them, takes a leap to be a serious threat (not this year, but in 2+ years). And, while The Leafs top players are in their prime, they are no longer getting BETTER and Nylander will be over 30 (I think) by the time the playoffs start in 2 years.

Again, its close, but this year I don't see a juggernaut standing in their way, and the younger teams, well, they are still improving and won't be as good this year as they will given another year.

 

[conFABulator]

I just had an interesting question pop into my head, which will be the better Leaf team, this years team or next years? With some significant changes expected due to Marner and Tavares being unrestricted free agents and some very notable players also potentially hitting the market from other teams it will be interesting. You also have to factor in the value of another season of development for Cowan, Knies, Minten, etc. as well as another year of play on the trio of older defensemen that we have(Tanev, OEL, McCabe).

I personally think the 2025/2026 Toronto Maple Leafs will be a superior team as I'm expecting the Tavares cap hit to be used to shore up the top 9 forward group with some more playoff focused players(proven track record of playoff success) - even if he resigns(will be far less than 11m) with the same being said for Marner's cap hit as from what I've seen it looks like this is his last season with the team.

Still have high expectations for this season though.

It's a great question, I have long felt that next season was absolutely the better probability for success than this year.

If we look at likely roster construction and the difference between the two seasons, what are the differences (without assuming a big trade or letting Marner walk)?

OUT:

Marner @ $11M
Tavares @ $11M
Kampf @$2.4M
Jarnkrok @ $2.1M
Reaves @ $1.3M

TOTAL OUT: $27.8M

IN:
Marner @ $12M
Tavares @ $4M
Knies @ +$3M
Cowan @$1M
Minten @$1M
McCabe @+$2M
Grebenkin @ $1M

TOTAL IN: $24M

DIFFERENCE: $3.8M
+ CAP INCREASE : $5M

ADDITIONAL TO SPEND: $8.8M

So, basically the same lineup as this year but some youth integrated in in place of Kampf and Jarnkrok.

Knies Matthews Domi
Holmberg Nylander Marner
Cowan Tavares McMann
Dewar Minten Grebenkin

Rielly Tanev
OEL Liljegren
Benoit McCabe

Woll
Stolarz

This lineup is arguably better than what we will ice this coming year. The big three are still in their prime. Knies and Holmberg and McMann will have another year experience and the kid we integrate will be a year older too. The only real losses from the lineup are Kampf and Jarñkrok.

Plus we have $8.8M to spend to upgrade, since it is a full roster above we also remove the cost of anyone we upgrade. Let's say we get a top 4 dman to take Liljegren's place. Add $3M to what we can spend, that's $11.8M to spend. We could sign Ekblad, trade Liljegren for some return and still have $3.5M to spend to upgrade elsewhere.

How can we not be better next year?

 

[BlackAdam]

Hold on bro, let me take my time machine and I'll get back to you

 

[darrylsittler27]

If Woll and Tanev get injured, we are a re run who will win one round them have no first. A wash.

 

[thewave]

This is our year to win it all. We are winning the cup in 2025