2024-25 Kraken Roster discussion

[The Marquis]

ngl I posted this because part of me hoped they left Burakovsky home because they had traded him, and wanted to share the sadness that it proved not to be the case

I assumed that wasn’t the case, but the hope was there. I just hope he does like the worst of employees and calls in sick with as much intermittent FMLA as is allowed, which would have him miss every game.

 

[RainyCityHockey]

ngl I posted this because part of me hoped they left Burakovsky home because they had traded him, and wanted to share the sadness that it proved not to be the case

Who exactly would trade for Burakovsky unless they could get rid of a pretty bad contract?

Despite the absurdity of our free agency signings, I think the overall set of moves points towards Francis being focused on the long run. It's more on ownership to recognize the situation and be clear with him that his job isn't hinging on what the club does in the next few months. They've either already concluded that he isn't the guy to take us to that long run, or they've decided that he is. But they're not going to pressure him to try and win and do win-now moves with a weak roster late in a lost season.

I've always seen this when teams have lost seasons - people think the GM is going to flail around to keep his job - and it has happened before on some clubs. It's really up to ownership to be clear that we're focused on the long run now.

Well, he's under pressure to win and needs to make things happen.
His free agency doings also show nothing of long run at all.

Maybe he's not going to do anything stupid(cause ownership won't let him) but he's got the green light to spend(see free agency) and probably knows that another bottom ten finish could be his end in Seattle.

Most importantly, I'm a bit uneasy about him not doing the right thing and trading guys like Gourde or Tanev cause he seems to love those expansion draft picks and there've been some rumors about the Kraken looking to extend Gourde which makes no sense.

But we'll see what happens within the next couple of months until the TDL and I wouldn't mind more trades like the Kakko one wether that's for young guys or draft picks/prospects.

 

[kihei]

Damn, I am almost beginning to feel sympathy for Burakovsky. He has been disappointing, no question, but he is a pretty small cog in a much bigger machine. With a handful of notable exceptions, this season has been a collective failure from upper management on down. There is more than enough blame to go around.

 

[majormajor]

Who exactly would trade for Burakovsky unless they could get rid of a pretty bad contract?


Well, he's under pressure to win and needs to make things happen.
His free agency doings also show nothing of long run at all.

Maybe he's not going to do anything stupid(cause ownership won't let him) but he's got the green light to spend(see free agency) and probably knows that another bottom ten finish could be his end in Seattle.

Most importantly, I'm a bit uneasy about him not doing the right thing and trading guys like Gourde or Tanev cause he seems to love those expansion draft picks and there've been some rumors about the Kraken looking to extend Gourde which makes no sense.

But we'll see what happens within the next couple of months until the TDL and I wouldn't mind more trades like the Kakko one wether that's for young guys or draft picks/prospects.

Our ownership has probably already realized in the last couple months that the team is hopeless. It's a little too obvious at this point. And the gritty expansion core is aging out and there is a gap before the next wave. Ownership is probably not dumb, they realize this is going to take time.

They've probably already decided whether Francis is the guy for the long run play. I don't think they're going to pressure him to make the playoffs next year.

 

[RainyCityHockey]

Damn, I am almost beginning to feel sympathy for Burakovsky. He has been disappointing, no question, but he is a pretty small cog in a much bigger machine. With a handful of notable exceptions, this season has been a collective failure from upper management on down. There is more than enough blame to go around.

Well, if you build a roster full of complimentary pieces(I think it's about eight guys making five-ish million) you end up with what we got and people venting at single guys at different times.

I'm really curious how the Kraken intend to get out of this and build somethting that can actually compete.

Our ownership has probably already realized in the last couple months that the team is hopeless. It's a little too obvious at this point. And the gritty expansion core is aging out and there is a gap before the next wave. Ownership is probably not dumb, they realize this is going to take time.

They've probably already decided whether Francis is the guy for the long run play. I don't think they're going to pressure him to make the playoffs next year.

Well, if they've actually decided on that I'd hope Francis starts trading the vets to be ahead of the curve and not wait till the last moment when prices are dropping right at the TDL.

Overall I'm not too sure about that, even with the Kakko trade.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Well, if you build a roster full of complimentary pieces(I think it's about eight guys making five-ish million) you end up with what we got and people venting at single guys at different times.

I'm really curious how the Kraken intend to get out of this and build somethting that can actually compete.

Outside of the Stephenson contract, the others will just work themselves out with time.

Schwartz - 1 more season. No need to move him since he has not really been a problem.
Gourde - Pending UFA. Should be traded at TDL or earlier. Do not re-sign.
Burakovsky - 2 more season
Tanev - Pending UFA. Should be traded, even if for peanuts. Do not re-sign.
Eberle - 1 more season.
Grubauer - 3 more seasons
Oleksiak - 1 more season. Not a net negative. Specially paired with Montour.

Eberle should be getting more into bottom-6 minutes starting next season and not be a negative. The real problems are really Burakovsky and Grubauer. I know Grubi has been terrible for us but I almost think moving out Burakovsky or a buyout makes more sense. If not, do that to Grubi. Ideally, trade one and buy one out.

Well, if they've actually decided on that I'd hope Francis starts trading the vets to be ahead of the curve and not wait till the last moment when prices are dropping right at the TDL.

Overall I'm not too sure about that, even with the Kakko trade.

The TDL is March 7th. So little over 2 months. I can't see Francis making any moves right out of the break, but I maybe mid-to-end of January if we remain about where we are in the standings.

 

[kihei]

Well, if you build a roster full of complimentary pieces(I think it's about eight guys making five-ish million) you end up with what we got and people venting at single guys at different times.

I'm really curious how the Kraken intend to get out of this and build somethting that can actually compete.

In the long run, I think there is only one way to really get out of it...and that is to build through the draft. I would make acquiring draft picks now for veterans a primary objective. Any other method of team building at this point for the Kraken would demand tremendously either on luck or on the stupidity of other GMs in the league, or, most likely, both.

 

[Fuhrious]

Who exactly would trade for Burakovsky unless they could get rid of a pretty bad contract?

I was mostly just trying to be a little light-hearted about his not traveling tbh…as Marquis said “I knew it wasn’t realistic but the hope was there”.

 

[majormajor]

In the long run, I think there is only one way to really get out of it...and that is to build through the draft. I would make acquiring draft picks now for veterans a primary objective. Any other method of team building at this point for the Kraken would demand tremendously either on luck or on the stupidity of other GMs in the league, or, most likely, both.

9 2nd rounders in the last 3 years is a good start.

 

[RainyCityHockey]

9 2nd rounders in the last 3 years is a good start.

Unless one of them somehow turns into a steal and top producer(hopefully someone does) we're talking about middle six forwards and 2nd/3rd pairing defenseman.

Those are nice and needed to fill out the roster but only if you have high end talent to carry those guys.

 

[RayMartyniukTotems]

Like Gourde a lot but I think I'd pull the trigger on a deal for him and Tanev and get as many draft choices as possible...they are glue guys teams convet come playoff time because they kick it up a notch or 2...they are Winners

 

[majormajor]

Unless one of them somehow turns into a steal and top producer(hopefully someone does) we're talking about middle six forwards and 2nd/3rd pairing defenseman.

Those are nice and needed to fill out the roster but only if you have high end talent to carry those guys.

I'm watching Kirill Marchenko right now, he's one of countless 2nd rounders in the league who have become star forwards. You know this, don't make me start listing them off.

 

[Kat Predator]

Well, if you build a roster full of complimentary pieces(I think it's about eight guys making five-ish million) you end up with what we got and people venting at single guys at different times.

I'm really curious how the Kraken intend to get out of this and build somethting that can actually compete.

Well, if they've actually decided on that I'd hope Francis starts trading the vets to be ahead of the curve and not wait till the last moment when prices are dropping right at the TDL.

Overall I'm not too sure about that, even with the Kakko trade.

Trust me, it could be far worse. Francis could've signed free agents to massive contracts with plenty of term and NMCs who don't fit the system of his coach and then started waiving Beniers, Wright, Evans, and Winterton, then traded Sale for a pick 3 drafts from now. This is basically what Barry Trotz has done in Nashville. Doubling down on his FA pickups and burning the farm pipeline to the ground.

 

[RainyCityHockey]

I'm watching Kirill Marchenko right now, he's one of countless 2nd rounders in the league who have become star forwards. You know this, don't make me start listing them off.

Well, only if I'm allowed to list you all those other 2nd rounders(and beyond) who haven't become that.

Like I've said, I like the kids and hope some of them just go through the roof.
Though, there's no way to expect this of guys drafted in rounds 2- 7.

 

[Fuhrious]

The fact that Cups gets "maintenance days". Man, what a time to be alive.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

The fact that Cups gets "maintenance days". Man, what a time to be alive.

Might just be a way to healthy scratch him without healthy scratching him?

 

[majormajor]

Since when are maintenance days unusual?

Might just be a way to healthy scratch him without healthy scratching him?

I won't get my hopes up.

 

[The Marquis]

Just going to rant a little here.

We frequently trash on Cups, but the dude is 3rd in points on the team and is close to the top, AND leads the team in assists. Watching him IS frustrating, I know. He's on a 50+ point pace. That's about the type of production that a guy making what he's making gets. That said... it can't possibly age well, but that's not why I'm here.

The real problem with the production on this team is Burakovsky. He not only isn't scoring, or creating scoring, but he looks bad out there and is a liability in most places on the ice.

I know a few of you don't like the +/- stat at all, but the one thing it helps understand are outliers, and our outliers, who are frequently on the ice when goals are scored against and less often when they are scored for are Cups, Bura, Tanev, Winterton and Kartye. What's worse is that we have zero positive outliers, but on the positive side, everybody else is looking pretty neutral, which is pretty odd really, including all of their linemates. It means things are balancing out when Bura and Cups are not on the ice. Tanev is on the PK, and is otherwise a 4th line minutes guy, so I attribute part of that to why his is so bad, but we've seen some insane goals scored when he is on the ice. I usually see Tanev sliding all over near the crease right before a goal is scored. At least he tries. Cups is on the PK as well, but also on the PP, so that's ought to mostly balance things out, and doesn't. Burakovsky shows up down bad in every possible way.

I won't even dive into why Winterton is a -7 in only 8 games, but he's in CV. Kartye has been the other, who sees no special teams minutes and plays pretty much only on the 4th line. I think a lot of what happens with both he and Tanev are likely related.

In short, if Burakovsky alone improved to the mean, we'd probably be at.... well... NHL .500 right now, maybe a little better.

 

[majormajor]

Just going to rant a little here.

We frequently trash on Cups, but the dude is 3rd in points on the team and is close to the top, AND leads the team in assists. Watching him IS frustrating, I know. He's on a 50+ point pace. That's about the type of production that a guy making what he's making gets. That said... it can't possibly age well, but that's not why I'm here.

The real problem with the production on this team is Burakovsky. He not only isn't scoring, or creating scoring, but he looks bad out there and is a liability in most places on the ice.

I know a few of you don't like the +/- stat at all, but the one thing it helps understand are outliers, and our outliers, who are frequently on the ice when goals are scored against and less often when they are scored for are Cups, Bura, Tanev, Winterton and Kartye. What's worse is that we have zero positive outliers, but on the positive side, everybody else is looking pretty neutral, which is pretty odd really, including all of their linemates. It means things are balancing out when Bura and Cups are not on the ice. Tanev is on the PK, and is otherwise a 4th line minutes guy, so I attribute part of that to why his is so bad, but we've seen some insane goals scored when he is on the ice. I usually see Tanev sliding all over near the crease right before a goal is scored. At least he tries. Cups is on the PK as well, but also on the PP, so that's ought to mostly balance things out, and doesn't. Burakovsky shows up down bad in every possible way.

I won't even dive into why Winterton is a -7 in only 8 games, but he's in CV. Kartye has been the other, who sees no special teams minutes and plays pretty much only on the 4th line. I think a lot of what happens with both he and Tanev are likely related.

In short, if Burakovsky alone improved to the mean, we'd probably be at.... well... NHL .500 right now, maybe a little better.

You actually don't get minuses for goals against on the PK, and you don't get plusses for goals for on the PP. You can only get minuses from being on the PP (from shorthanded goals against) and you can only get plusses from being on the PK (from shorthanded goals for). So it biases the other way.

This is why we should just look at our 5v5 stats separately.

There you'll see that we actually do have a guy that is much better than even. Oliver Bjorkstrand continues to be our best 5v5 forward by a good margin. Yeah I'm a little biased but look at how he compares to his teammates. We've outscored opponents 21 to 15 with him out there. And Beniers, McCann, and Wright are all fine, roughly even or a bit better.

Burakovsky I'd start scratching him often. Give him a lot of time off if you think it might help him get in better health. There's no real reason to play him this much unless the plan is just to tank the season.

Stephenson is a trickier one to handle. I don't know what to do with him. With his speed you want him attacking on the rush, but the puck goes back the other way so much with that approach. It has never worked with this team. We've always been better as a forechecking team that gets pucks deep.

For the fourth liners like Tanev I think we ought to just ship him out and go with a new look 4th line with Sprong.

 

[The Marquis]

You actually don't get minuses for goals against on the PK, and you don't get plusses for goals for on the PP. You can only get minuses from being on the PP (from shorthanded goals against) and you can only get plusses from being on the PK (from shorthanded goals for). So it biases the other way.

This is why we should just look at our 5v5 stats separately.

There you'll see that we actually do have a guy that is much better than even. Oliver Bjorkstrand continues to be our best 5v5 forward by a good margin. Yeah I'm a little biased but look at how he compares to his teammates. We've outscored opponents 21 to 15 with him out there. And Beniers, McCann, and Wright are all fine, roughly even or a bit better.

Burakovsky I'd start scratching him often. Give him a lot of time off if you think it might help him get in better health. There's no real reason to play him this much unless the plan is just to tank the season.

Stephenson is a trickier one to handle. I don't know what to do with him. With his speed you want him attacking on the rush, but the puck goes back the other way so much with that approach. It has never worked with this team. We've always been better as a forechecking team that gets pucks deep.

For the fourth liners like Tanev I think we ought to just ship him out and go with a new look 4th line with Sprong.

I actually didn't know that. Frankly, I so rarely even look at that stat line or care, but it's really good to know that. Gives me a better understanding about just how much they are outliers.

 

[majormajor]

I actually didn't know that. Frankly, I so rarely even look at that stat line or care, but it's really good to know that. Gives me a better understanding about just how much they are outliers.

The +/- shown in boxcar stats is widely considered a joke, so many guys get big minuses just from empty net goals against, or because they play PP and not PK, that sort of thing.

But analysts take 5v5 +/- very seriously. It's the main event when it comes to stats.

Hopefully someday 5v5 +/- will become the standard +/-.

 

[The Marquis]

The +/- shown in boxcar stats is widely considered a joke, so many guys get big minuses just from empty net goals against, or because they play PP and not PK, that sort of thing.

But analysts take 5v5 +/- very seriously. It's the main event when it comes to stats.

Hopefully someday 5v5 +/- will become the standard +/-.

I'm finding the comparison of GF/60 and GA/60 to be pretty useful to see who is generating offense and who allowing the other team to generate offense.

For example, Shane Wright is a 3.03 on both. Not counting Kakko, Wright and Eberle have been on the ice during the most scoring. Our best players in terms of tilting the ice in our favor are, as you mentioned, Bjorkstrand and Beniers are best with McCann being the only other regular in the positive, albeit only slightly. Otherwise, our biggest apparent liabilities at 5v5 are Kartye, Tanev, Burakovsky and Cups. Of non-regulars who have only played for the Kraken this season, Winterton's numbers are SHOCKING, and Stephens looks about like Cups and Tanev.

Things get wild when you look at "expected" goals metrics. Everybody then has a negative bent to the comparison, but most get closer to even, but what stands out is that Winterton ends up being one of only 2 players who have a positive bent, along with Gourde. I'm guessing Winterton's poor stat in actual GF% is related to a combo of small sample size and a bad game by one of our goalies when he was on the ice. The other thing that stands out is that Cups doesn't change much with the xGF%, and is the worst player by that stat.

Very little scoring is happening against the Kraken with Beniers or Bjorkstrand are on the ice. A lot of goals against are happening when Wright, Kartye, Tanev, Eberle and Cups are on the ice. Offensively, goals are happening when Wright, Eberle, Bjorkstrand, McCann and Schwartz are on the ice. Conversely, the same guyes who are down bad defensively are also down bad offensively, except Tolvanen, whose defensive stat isn't too bad.

Gourde is miles better than his linemates. Maybe he figured out when to get off the ice.

Blah Blah Blah.