Prospect Info: 2024-25 Ducks Prospects

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Another goal for sennecke, this a one-timer on the PP.

 

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I also wish I could find penalty-drawn stats for the OHL; they might exist, I just don't know where. Sennecke just drew another one and I would be shocked if he wasn't among the league leaders in that category.

He's got a perry-like ability to get under players' skins.

 

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Add an assist for sennecke as his team capitalizes on the ensuing PP.

 

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Great play on the assist.

 

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There's the hat trick. 3+1 and the second period isn't over.

 

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[zegrassyknoll]

I have no real concern about Sennecke. I think he tracks somewhere between McTavish and Leo in terms of talent, which is fine with me.

 

[SmokeyDuck]

Yall need to be patient.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

Shit talks the bench too, that's a rad play.

 

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Blais finished today 1+2.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Alright @Hockey Duckie I have an Excel sheet request. Recent top 5 pick forwards who returned to the CHL for their D+1, maybe from now till 2010. I have a list of names for you already.

Ryan Johansen
Nino Neiderreiter
Jonathon Huberdeau
Ryan Strome
Alex Galchenyuk
Jonathon Drouin
Sam Reinhart
Leon Draisaitl
Sam Bennett
Michael Dal Colle
Dylan Strome
Mitch Marner
Pierre-Luc Dubois
Barrett Hayton
Mason McTavish
Shane Wright
Beckett Sennecke

The four main data points I would like to see compared are

1. D+1 production, by a per game basis
2. NHL success and production
3. Quality of CHL team in D+1 year
4. Height and size

I understand that is a lot so feel free to trim down the leg work on you end however you see fit, but just scrolling through EP I became quite jaded on the importance of production at the very least in D+1. Many mega producers have t been so in the NHL and some really underwhelming producers turned out was my main takeaway, not much rhyme or reason from a glance.

Also feel free to not perform the request of course lol.

Omgoodness! That's a whole lot of work. I wished I worked for some of those pay sites that have all that info readily available on a search function along with graphics of output. I think I'd be in heaven in one of those places!

Although not a top-10 pick, for me, Sam Steel's production in his D+1 season has been a sobering story. He scored 131 pts (50g, 81a) in only 66 games in the WHL. He was the best scorer in the WHL that season. Then, he looked promising in his AHL rookie season with 41 points (20g, 21a) in 53 games. When it came to the NHL, though, he couldn't make that jump as a top-6 scoring forward.

Skating prospects are difficult to project. Goalies are even worse. People don't understand that drafting is a gambling game. The Madden Ducks seem to be card counters at defense and goal, but a noob to average when selecting forwards outside the top-10. In the 2014 draft, our 7th round forward in Kase outperformed our 10th OA pick Nick Ritchie. It doesn't make sense, but I think that's just how it goes.

The big picture overview is seeing pick selection to 200 NHL games played. Games played is used because it's inclusive to all positions: F, D, or G. (Even this research paper limits its scope to cover.) You'll improve your chances of success the closer you are to the 1st OA pick. Here's a graphic from a research paper called, "What's an NHL Draft Pick Worth?" It's a story of failures than success.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Alright @Hockey Duckie I have an Excel sheet request. Recent top 5 pick forwards who returned to the CHL for their D+1, maybe from now till 2010. I have a list of names for you already.

Ryan Johansen
Nino Neiderreiter
Jonathon Huberdeau
Ryan Strome
Alex Galchenyuk
Jonathon Drouin
Sam Reinhart
Leon Draisaitl
Sam Bennett
Michael Dal Colle
Dylan Strome
Mitch Marner
Pierre-Luc Dubois
Barrett Hayton
Mason McTavish
Shane Wright
Beckett Sennecke

The four main data points I would like to see compared are

1. D+1 production, by a per game basis
2. NHL success and production
3. Quality of CHL team in D+1 year
4. Height and size

I understand that is a lot so feel free to trim down the leg work on you end however you see fit, but just scrolling through EP I became quite jaded on the importance of production at the very least in D+1. Many mega producers have t been so in the NHL and some really underwhelming producers turned out was my main takeaway, not much rhyme or reason from a glance.

Also feel free to not perform the request of course lol.

Alright, here are the excel tables. There are no rhyme or reasons for the vast productions. I did the NHL Point Share and Point Share by Season for the NHL comparison. Pt Share is the estimated number of points contributed by a player, which is great for gauging offensive forwards. The color scaling is done per table, due to snapshot fitment. I just reiterates all the studies showing there really isn't a great way to find talent, but at least most of the talent drafted in the top-5 do produce.

For pre-NHL productions, I used EP.
For Height and Weight, I used CSB Final Rankings. (thank goodness NHL.com has the information)
For NHL Pt Share, I used Hockey-Reference.

 

[GunnarStahl]

Alright, here are the excel tables. There are no rhyme or reasons for the vast productions. I did the NHL Point Share and Point Share by Season for the NHL comparison. Pt Share is the estimated number of points contributed by a player, which is great for gauging offensive forwards. The color scaling is done per table, due to snapshot fitment. I just reiterates all the studies showing there really isn't a great way to find talent, but at least most of the talent drafted in the top-5 do produce.

For pre-NHL productions, I used EP.
For Height and Weight, I used CSB Final Rankings. (thank goodness NHL.com has the information)
For NHL Pt Share, I used Hockey-Reference.

View attachment 1024585

View attachment 1024586

Thanks for the hard work on this I appreciate it!

One interesting pull, filter out all players under 6' 2" you are left with

Sennecke
Dubois
Dal Colle
Draisaitl
Neiderreiter
Johansen

Sennecke only trails Draisaitl in production. Though most names on that list aren't stars.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Thanks for the hard work on this I appreciate it!

One interesting pull, filter out all players under 6' 2" you are left with

Sennecke
Dubois
Dal Colle
Draisaitl
Neiderreiter
Johansen

Sennecke only trails Draisaitl in production. Though most names on that list aren't stars.

You forgot about 6'3 Dylan Strome.

Also of note, a lot of these players have a 9-game season under their belt or about 37 games before returning to juniors. But that's far too much work to split up by the time I got to the Pt Share/ per season.

 

[WhatTheDuck]

Sennecke and the Generals now lead the OHL Eastern Conference Final 2-0, while London leads Kitchener 2-0 on the Western side.

Blais and Rimouski are ahead 2-0 in their QMJHL semi final series against Chicoutimi, while draft eligible Caleb Desnoyers (leading the league with 22 points in 11 playoff games) and his Moncton Wildcats also lead their semi final 2-0 over Rouyn-Noranda.

I don't even know if this has been mentioned yet, but Blais is guaranteed a spot in the Memorial Cup by way of Rimouski being an automatic entry as the hosts.

 

[Gliff]

Sennecke and the Generals now lead the OHL Eastern Conference Final 2-0, while London leads Kitchener 2-0 on the Western side.

Blais and Rimouski are ahead 2-0 in their QMJHL semi final series against Chicoutimi, while draft eligible Caleb Desnoyers (leading the league with 22 points in 11 playoff games) and his Moncton Wildcats also lead their semi final 2-0 over Rouyn-Noranda.

I don't even know if this has been mentioned yet, but Blais is guaranteed a spot in the Memorial Cup by way of Rimouski being an automatic entry as the hosts.

What happens if the host team wins their league? Who is the 4th team?

 

[WhatTheDuck]

What happens if the host team wins their league? Who is the 4th team?

It would just be whoever they beat in the final, has come up a few times over the years. So if Rimouski makes the league final, their opponent is automatically in the Mem Cup as well, and they first just fight it out to be the Q champion

 

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[All Mighty]

That is an extremely impressive highlight reel from a single night. He showcased a lot of the skills that made him a #3 pick there.

 

[Arthuros]

That is an extremely impressive highlight reel from a single night. He showcased a lot of the skills that made him a #3 pick there.

But what does @nbducksfan19 think?

(I'm just joking, if that wasn't clear)

 

[Anaheim4ever]

I also wish I could find penalty-drawn stats for the OHL; they might exist, I just don't know where. Sennecke just drew another one and I would be shocked if he wasn't among the league leaders in that category.

He's got a perry-like ability to get under players' skins.

More Perry traits. Just needs to learn how accidently run crash into goalies. Perry: yo referee I was pushed into Quick, I didn't mean to at all.

 

[Static]

More Perry traits. Just needs to learn how accidently run crash into goalies. Perry: yo referee I was pushed into Quick, I didn't mean to at all.

He does that quite a bit. In the last series against Brampton he had opposing fans calling for his head for bumping the goaltender so often.

 

[forever1922]

Sennecke has really set the tone with his physical play this series. Love to see it, kid is fired up.

 

[ScarTroy]

Typical soft Verbeek pick