I will feel bad when those guys produce at the NHL level.
Prospect Info: 2024-25 Ducks Prospects
- Thread starter Leonardo87
- Start date
I will feel bad when those guys produce at the NHL level.
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
A lot of teams miss on draft gems b/c draft gems are scarce by nature. Surprisingly, Anaheim does boast plenty of late gems with Martin Madden at the scouting helm. Anaheim with Madden hasn't drafted a goalie in the first round, but we've always have had successful NHL starting goalies to star goalies (Andersen, Gibson, Dostal) and it seems like the trend is continuing (Suchanek, Clara). Out of our current top-4 youth defensemen, only one was drafted in the first round in Minty. LaCombe, Zell (2x def player of the year, DPoY, in WHL and CHL DPoY), and Luneau (DPoY in QMJHL) are all second round draft picks. Other notable defensemen are Hinds (rd 3), Dionicio (rd 5), Tarin Smith (rd 3).
As for recent forwards that are not first rounders that have looked very promising in juniors or college: RW Colangelo (rd2), RW Pastujov (rd 3), RW Sidorov (rd 3), C Procyszyn, C Blais (rd4), and RW Burnevik (rd 6). The problem with looking good in juniors or college is more often that game translates to the pro levels. Colangelo's offense has translated to the AHL level, but still an unknown at the NHL level. Troy Terry was a 5th round pick in 2015 and didn't break out into the NHL until his D+7 season. He's our current best forward on the team.
Do you know how many top-10 picks the Ducks have in their org today?
2019: Zegras at 9th overall
2021: Mac at 3rd overall
2022: Cutter at 5th overall
2023: Carlsson at 2nd overall
2024: Sennecke at 3rd overall
Add in Terry and that should be a potential top-6 grouping of the future. Four of the top-10 forward picks are in the NHL today. Guess it is a great thing the Ducks are hitting at drafting defensemen and goalies beyond the top-10 so they can afford to draft forwards several times in the top-10. I'm more worried that our current coaching staff is derailing our top-10 forward picks than trying to hit on scarce gems.
@Gliff shared above, the Ducks are average at drafting forwards. I think the metric is playing a minimum of 200 NHL games for the study. We're spoiled as Duck fans due to the success of drafting d-men and goalies that we think that should also spill into the forward group.
AngelDuck
Rak 'em up
- Jun 16, 2012
- 23,701
- 18,066
The Gaucher pick doesn’t look good either. There’s been some attempts to try to pat ourselves on the backs with that one, but at the end of the day, he’s an extremely underwhelming offensive player at the AHL. There is a very low chance he even becomes a 3rd line center IMO
The good news is that Colangelo looks like he can take some of the sting out of the Gaucher/Myatovic problem.
The good news is that Colangelo looks like he can take some of the sting out of the Gaucher/Myatovic problem.
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
When we drafted him, I thought he was a bigger and faster straight-forward skating BO Groulx. Groulx might be the better scorer in the AHL. I still hope for Gaucher to improve.
Didn't love the pick then, and the fact that Yurov and Snuggy went the 2 picks after makes it worse.
But, getting Luneau in the 2nd more then makes up for it IMO.
Drafting isn't an exact science. I think it's a little tedious to go through every miss and act like it is some indictment on the team. Also it's really easy to say "people called it as a bad pick as soon as it was made" as proof the team made a bad pick, but plenty of "bad picks" have made fans look like idiots when they panned out.
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
I dunno about getting Luneau in the 2nd makes up for it since we're proficient at drafting d-men beyond the top-10.
Drafting Gaucher was a change in draft philosophy from swinging for scoring forwards to defensive forwards. Verbeek drafted Myatovic as a defensive forward who scored 30 goals out of nowhere in juniors. The odd part was Verbeek complaining he needed more scorers while both Snug and Kulich were still available. We all should be used to Verbeek doing the opposite of what he says.
AngelDuck
Rak 'em up
- Jun 16, 2012
- 23,701
- 18,066
I’m not obsessing over every miss, but it’s certainly fair to point the ones that didn’t work just like I ALWAYS point out the ones that did work
I don’t need you parroting off of every single one of my critical posts with the same line about drafting not being an exact science. We know.
- Nov 7, 2017
- 5,287
- 2,021
SHL playing again after the international break. Färjestad won 5-4 in OT @ Modo today.
Clara was the backup. Solberg in the press box...uff da Stian, I think you're too tough for this coach
Clara was the backup. Solberg in the press box...uff da Stian, I think you're too tough for this coach
Smirnov2Chistov
Fire Greg Cronin!
With drafting, I wouldn't mind if we went outside of someone like Madden and co. and brought in a fresher voice with a different drafting philosophy. We've had more misses than hits.. especially in the later rounds.
Everyone has more misses than hits, especially in the later rounds.
For every Troy Terry there are 100 guys that don't make the NHL at all.
Going back 10 years our drafting doesn't look great in the first round either. There are no homeruns from our first rounders.
The Good:
Too Soon to Tell/In the Middle:
Sennecke
Solberg
Carlsson
Mintyukov
McTavish
Zegras
Lundestrom
The Bad:
Gaucher
Drysdale
Perreault
Tracey
Jones
Steel
Larsson
Ritchie
Procyszyn has a goal. Terrance finished last night with an assist.
Procyszyn added a second goal, his 14th of the year.
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
The first round has the biggest variance of prospects making the NHL. Late first round picks are more prone to not make the NHL and inherently implies finding a homerun pick is scarce. Here are two studies, both 10 years in data.
"What's a Draft Pick Worth?" by Schuckers. He uses 200 NHL games played as the metric to measure across the different positions.
"NHL Draft Pick Probabilities" by Nevalainen. Nevalainen's threshold of success is 99 NHL games played.
The first round success rate of reaching 200 NHL games by Schuckers' research work reveals as much steeper decline than the 99 NHL game threshold.
2014
Playoff team in 2013-14
Rd 1, 10 overall: Ritchie, 481 games. Out of NHL.
Rd 2: D Pettersson, 462 games and still playing
Rd 2: D Montour, 535 games and still playing
Rd 7: F Kase, 258 games - out of NHL due to several concussions
We didn't hit on Ritchie, but we did with three other players in the same draft. Shame about Kase that he is out of the NHL due to concussion and not the lack of talent for the game.
2015
Playoff team in 2014-15
Rd 1, 27th overall: D Larsson, 172 games. Out of NHL
late 1st rd pickRd 5: F Terry, 365 games and still playing
Oh look, a star in Terry!
2016
Playoff team in 2015-16
Rd 1, 24th overall: LW Jones, 262 games and still playing
late 1st rd pickRd 2, 30th overall: C Steel, 352 games and still playing (in AHL)
late 1st rd pickRd 3: D Mahura,, 202 games and still playing
Steel and Mahura are still playing in the NHL.
2017
Playoff team in 2016-17
== No 1st round pick ==
Rd 2: LW Comtois, 211 games and out of NHL
We lost the 1st round pick because we made the Western Conf Finals with Eaves.
2018
Playoff team in 2017-18
Rd 1, 23rd overall: C Lundy, 271 games and still playing
late 1st rd pickRd 2: C Groulx, 65 games and still playing in NA (in AHL)
Rd 3: G Dostal, 79 games and still playing
We found two starters here with Lundy and Dostal. Dostal is looking to be our future #1G.
2019
No playoffs
Rd 1, 9th overall: C Zegras, 226 games and still playing
Rd 1, 29th overall: LW Tracey, 1 game and still playing (in AHL)
Rd 2: LD LaCombe, 82 games and still playing
Rd 4: LD Thrun, 75 games and still playing
We have two starters in Zegras and LaCombe. Thrun was traded for a 2024 3rd round pick, Maxim Masse.
2020
No playoffs
Rd 1, 6th overall: RD Drysdale, 162 games and still playing (traded for 2022, 5th round Cutter)
Rd 1, 27th overall: RW Perreault, 1 game and in ECHL
Rd 2: RW Colangelo, 3 games and still playing (in AHL)
Rd 3: RD Moore, still in NCAA
We have one known NHL player from this draft b/c we swapped Drysdale for Cutter. We have two potential players in Colangelo and Moore.
2021
No playoffs
Rd 1, 3rd overall: C Mac, 166 games and still playing
Rd 2: LD Zell, 40 games and still playing
We have both in the NHL right now. It's too early to tell if we have anything in Rd 3 D Hinds. In fact, it's too early to tell for for the 2020 draft class and above.
We have five top-6 drafted forwards on the NHL roster today: RW Terry, C Zegras, C McTavish, LW Cutter, and C Carlsson. We have one bottom-6 forward on the NHL roster today: C Lundestrom. That's a total of six drafted forwards in our top-9.
Defensively, we have three drafted d-men: LD Minty, LD Zell, and LD LaCombe.
At goal, we have two drafted netminders: Gibby and Dostal.
I dunno why we're complaining when we've collected five of our top-6 and with Sennecke in the system, could be our whole top-6 grouping. There could be a dark horse with RW Colangelo. On defense, we have RD Luneau and LD Solberg in tow on top of the three in the NHL already.
The first round has the biggest variance of prospects making the NHL. Late first round picks are more prone to not make the NHL and inherently implies finding a homerun pick is scarce. Here are two studies, both 10 years in data.
"What's a Draft Pick Worth?" by Schuckers. He uses 200 NHL games played as the metric to measure across the different positions.
View attachment 930777
"NHL Draft Pick Probabilities" by Nevalainen. Nevalainen's threshold of success is 99 NHL games played.
View attachment 930781
The first round success rate of reaching 200 NHL games by Schuckers' research work reveals as much steeper decline than the 99 NHL game threshold.
2014
Playoff team in 2013-14
Rd 1, 10 overall: Ritchie, 481 games. Out of NHL.
Rd 2: D Pettersson, 462 games and still playing
Rd 2: D Montour, 535 games and still playing
Rd 7: F Kase, 258 games - out of NHL due to several concussions
We didn't hit on Ritchie, but we did with three other players in the same draft. Shame about Kase that he is out of the NHL due to concussion and not the lack of talent for the game.
2015
Playoff team in 2014-15
Rd 1, 27th overall: D Larsson, 172 games. Out of NHL
Rd 5: F Terry, 365 games and still playing
Oh look, a star in Terry!
2016
Playoff team in 2015-16
Rd 1, 24th overall: LW Jones, 262 games and still playing
Rd 2, 30th overall: C Steel, 352 games and still playing (in AHL)
Rd 3: D Mahura,, 202 games and still playing
Steel and Mahura are still playing in the NHL.
2017
Playoff team in 2016-17
== No 1st round pick ==
Rd 2: LW Comtois, 211 games and out of NHL
We lost the 1st round pick because we made the Western Conf Finals with Eaves.
2018
Playoff team in 2017-18
Rd 1, 23rd overall: C Lundy, 271 games and still playing
Rd 2: C Groulx, 65 games and still playing in NA (in AHL)
Rd 3: G Dostal, 79 games and still playing
We found two starters here with Lundy and Dostal. Dostal is looking to be our future #1G.
2019
No playoffs
Rd 1, 9th overall: C Zegras, 226 games and still playing
Rd 1, 29th overall: LW Tracey, 1 game and still playing (in AHL)
Rd 2: LD LaCombe, 82 games and still playing
Rd 4: LD Thrun, 75 games and still playing
We have two starters in Zegras and LaCombe. Thrun was traded for a 2024 3rd round pick, Maxim Masse.
2020
No playoffs
Rd 1, 6th overall: RD Drysdale, 162 games and still playing (traded for 2022, 5th round Cutter)
Rd 1, 27th overall: RW Perreault, 1 game and in ECHL
Rd 2: RW Colangelo, 3 games and still playing (in AHL)
Rd 3: RD Moore, still in NCAA
We have one known NHL player from this draft b/c we swapped Drysdale for Cutter. We have two potential players in Colangelo and Moore.
2021
No playoffs
Rd 1, 3rd overall: C Mac, 166 games and still playing
Rd 2: LD Zell, 40 games and still playing
We have both in the NHL right now. It's too early to tell if we have anything in Rd 3 D Hinds. In fact, it's too early to tell for for the 2020 draft class and above.
We have five top-6 drafted forwards on the NHL roster today: RW Terry, C Zegras, C McTavish, LW Cutter, and C Carlsson. We have one bottom-6 forward on the NHL roster today: C Lundestrom. That's a total of six drafted forwards in our top-9.
Defensively, we have three drafted d-men: LD Minty, LD Zell, and LD LaCombe.
At goal, we have two drafted netminders: Gibby and Dostal.
I dunno why we're complaining when we've collected five of our top-6 and with Sennecke in the system, could be our whole top-6 grouping. There could be a dark horse with RW Colangelo. On defense, we have RD Luneau and LD Solberg in tow on top of the three in the NHL already.
Thanks for this write-up! Interesting stuff. That being said: we still need to be hitting a lot better and harder on our first round picks.
WhatTheDuck
9 - 20 - 8
Only 74% of 1st rounders play 100 NHL games. In the whole time Madden has been here the Ducks have drafted 23 players in the 1st round. Only 7 have not played 100 games:
Tracey
Perreault
Gaucher
Minty
Carlsson
Solberg
Sennecke
I think we can agree to ignore the last 4.
This means only 3 out of 19 1st rounders havent played 100 games. Will be 3 out of 21 when Leo and Minty reach that point this year. Far below the average.
Same story when you look at second rounders. The Average is only 34% of second rounders play 100 games. 7 of 15 2nds rounders from 2008-2018. From 2019-current they already have LaCombe, Zellweger, and Luneau basically locks to reach that mark and then Colangelo looking good in the AHL.
MMC
Global Moderator
WhatTheDuck
9 - 20 - 8
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
Martin's start with the Ducks comes in the summer of 2008. He was an amateur scout with Carolina from 2005-08. (Source 1: NHL.com, Source 2: EP )
Using the given stat of 74% play 100 NHL games.
- Picks 2009-2021: 15/17, or 88.2%
That production rate puts Madden Jr. above the 74% rate at the moment. As for the 2022 class and beyond, prospects drafted in the late first round may need a long time of evaluation to discount them.
If we use your presumption that Gaucher will never hit 100 NHL games, but the rest of the 2022-24 first round draft class does hit 100 games, then we get 19/22, or 86.4%. That production rate is still higher than 74%.
All Mighty
Registered User
KelVarnsen
Registered User
Hes starting to produce at way to high a level. He needs some Ducks developlment so he can be the true 3rd liner the PV and Cro desire.
