I wanted to put this up again because there's been some question about who the #1 overall pick should be and, much like in the Jack Hughes Draft, I think Schaefer is at least a full tier ahead of the pack. I'm really interested to know what
@Guadana and
@evnted and some other of you folks think, but I'm all in on Schaefer. I'm still a bit conflicted on who is #2 overall -- Misa and Hagens are both outstanding prospects who combine several elite qualities with a few smaller, nagging questions. Schaefer has no questions -- the kid is a potential franchise defenseman and Norris Trophy candidate.
2025 Draft Profile:
LD Matthew Schaefer, Erie OHL
If an amateur hockey player had nothing else whatsoever in his game and skillset except an ability to both skate and think at a far faster pace than the opposition, they would still be a very good bet to make the NHL. With Matthew Schaefer, you have a player at the highest levels of elite skating and elite thinking, to such an almost absurd degree that it often seems like the rest of the game is moving in slow motion around him. But almost impossibly, this combination is simply the tip of the iceberg. Because Matthew Schaefer is a player who excels at virtually every area of the game -- with the puck and without, offense and defense, 5x5 or power play or penalty kill, if we can imagine it he can do it.
Breaking him down is easy, because Schaefer is just such a good hockey player the only challenge becomes which superlative to use for which aspect of his game. The first thing we notice is his elite skating -- he's got that Makar/Hughes ability to seem like he's almost floating above the ice combined with an insane agility and edge work which allows him to explode in any direction in any instant. This speed is only matched by his lightning-fast ability to read a play and react to it accordingly. His high-end anticipation gives him a head-start to wherever the puck or play will be, and the last thing this rocket-quick kid needs is a head start. Opponents always seem on their heels whenever he's on the ice, ready to turn tail and play defense and often intimidated into losing all aggressiveness seemingly by his presence alone.
We saw this in the WJC -- with Schaefer on the ice, Canada was simply a completely different team than without him -- more confident, aggressive and precise, knowing how impossible it was for teenagers to beat Schaefer on either end of the ice. Similarly, we saw it with the competition -- when Schaefer's injury forced him out of the Latvia loss, the entire Latvia gameplan shifted to a more intense forecheck and greater chance-taking.
Schaefer's puck skills are high end, but short of elite. He's a terrific passer with great on-ice vision, which combined with his elite smarts makes him the Erie quarterback every time he's on the ice. His hands are very good, not quite as quick or deft as his feet, but soft and skilled enough to keep up. He doesn't have the litany of moves and dekes like a prime-era Patrick Kane, but he has enough tricks in his bag to get a defender off-balance in order to shift gears and use his explosive skating to blow past them. Schaefer's shot is probably is most pedestrian trait -- it's good enough to cause damage from either a quick wrister or full wind-up, but it's not exactly scaring anyone on its own. Most of Schaefer's goals are from skating faster than a goaltender can adjust and then using his hands to hit the holes he creates with his feet.
Maybe the most impressive aspect of his overall game is the fact that although Schaefer sounds like a prototypical all-offense defenseman, he's quite the opposite. Schaefer's potential is the rare NHL franchise defenseman who is the team's best offensive and defensive defenseman. His reads and positioning are top-notch, and even in the rare instance when a bad bounce or teammate turnover catches him out of position, Schaefer can seamlessly adjust and quickly close gaps which moments before seemed untenable. He's a high-compete guy who routinely wins puck battles and, at 6'2-185, he's also extremely athletic and physically strong. Schaefer is not afraid to throw hits, maybe not as an intimidation tactic, but he can certainly separate an opposing forward from the puck with no shortage of aggression and audacity. You can't dump the puck in on him because he'll beat you to it, you can't carry in because he'll read it and close the gap, and you can't beat him one-on-one.
I'm not sure what else to say, Matthew Schaefer is absolutely the blue chip defenseman of the 2025 NHL Draft, and quite likely the top overall pick. Any team would be over the moon to get this high-end, two-way speed demon.
