Speculation: 2024-25 Coaching/Management/Ownership

Yup and lack net front presence.
That’s why I want Vilardi (if he is available via trade)
It's beating a dead horse at this point. Cronin has to go.

I still don't even know if Verbeek is a competent GM.
Wanting Cronin gone is fine, questioning Verbeek’s competency as a GM is in my opinion, pretty wild. Besides your hatred of his coach pick. Why does he suck as a gm.
 
Yeah, Dvorak and Sturm are likely the top targets for that cheaper FO specialist.

It makes more sense than overspending on scoring line guys.

Maybe Beeker leaves that opening praying Gaucher recovery’s from surgery and surprises.

I'm not counting on that. Even if he pans out, nothing wrong with starting him out on the 4th line. We need to fix this FO situation if we're gonna get better.
 
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Be so for real right now. Maybe you can argue he doesn't have a long term place on this team but he absolutely has an NHL future.

Even after a recent skid he still leads the AHL in Pts/g among defensemen who've played more than 30 games with 0.89. Brandt Clarke led last year with 0.92 on a much better Ontario Reign team than this year's Gulls team. For additional reference, Zellweger's rate was 0.84
I absolutely think he will play in the NHL.

I meant that more that at this moment he's a potential asset and not a guaranteed one. He could easily injure himself again or have difficulty adjusting full-time to the NHL. Stranger things have happened.
 
He won't be super cheap, but also far less expensive than the bigger names. And his style of game should last a while ... I wouldn't have a problem giving him some term.

On Capwages, you can do a projection for the 2025-26 season. Just scroll below the NHL roster and select the "Show Projections" button. Dvorak is currently being paid $4.45 mil AAV, in his last contract year. They have listed Dvorak re-signed for $1.786 mil in their projection for next season! That is super cheap, but I doubt he goes for that little. For contrast, we are playing Killorn $6.250 mil AAV and Killorn is six years older than Dvorak.
 
Didn't want to reply in the Moore thread and push it further off-topic, but some interesting/sad comparisons re: whether or not the team has improved from last season.
  • 5v5 xGA: 12th ----> 32nd (-20)
  • High Danger SA: 3rd ----> 28th (-25)
  • 5v5 xGF: 31st ----> 21st (+10)
  • PIM: 32nd ----> 24th (+8)
  • PP%: 25th ----> 32nd (-7)
  • PK%: 31st ----> 28th (+3, but only a 0.12% increase)
In other words, our "defense-first" coach has helped us become significantly worse at defense, no real change on the PK, moderately better at scoring, moderately better at taking penalties, and moderately worse on the PP.

I'm no pro but I'd also wager those improvements in 5v5 scoring have come from individual players growing more accustomed to the league, not from coaching.
 
Even if PV wants to fire Cronin, do people really see the Samuelis saying “Sure, we’ll pay another coach in addition to your handpicked coach who improved the team by 20 points this season”? Because I really don’t see it
 
Even if PV wants to fire Cronin, do people really see the Samuelis saying “Sure, we’ll pay another coach in addition to your handpicked coach who improved the team by 20 points this season”? Because I really don’t see it
That’s not what happened though, to anyone who’s remotely paying attention.

The actual question is whether they’re willing to pay 2 coaches, when the current one is had his record improved with top notch goaltending, which is being wasted with a chronic lack of player preparation for games, inability to make coaching changes mid-period (and sometimes mid game), who doesn’t use the players he has to create a system they can excel in, and who publicly admits he doesn’t know what to do when the team doesn’t look good.

We have scored only 11 more goals than the worst offensive team in the league. PP is 31st. PK is 30th. Shots again are dead last, again. Shots for, 20th(amusingly, 4 playoff teams shoot less than us). We have the 3rd worst shot differential, ahead of only Chicago and San Jose. This is either a low talent team, a badly constructed team, or a badly coached team. It is NOT a good team.
 
That’s not what happened though
Idk what you mean by what happened, I’m posing this in regards to the possibility of PV wanting to move on from Cronin this offseason. I’m not myself attributing the improvement in the standings to Cronin, I just have doubts that the Samuelis are prepared to pay 2 coaches at this juncture
 
Idk what you mean by what happened, I’m posing this in regards to the possibility of PV wanting to move on from Cronin this offseason. I’m not myself attributing the improvement in the standings to Cronin, I just have doubts that the Samuelis are prepared to pay 2 coaches at this juncture
Cronin hasn’t coached the team to a 20 point increase in the standings, the goalie coaches have.

The discussion is whether they want to make money by significantly improving the team, or be penny wise pound foolish by not paying Cronin off to get a better coach. Granted, that requires trust that Verbeek and his brain trust can do better choosing a coach this time.
 
Didn't want to reply in the Moore thread and push it further off-topic, but some interesting/sad comparisons re: whether or not the team has improved from last season.
  • 5v5 xGA: 12th ----> 32nd (-20)
  • High Danger SA: 3rd ----> 28th (-25)
  • 5v5 xGF: 31st ----> 21st (+10)
  • PIM: 32nd ----> 24th (+8)
  • PP%: 25th ----> 32nd (-7)
  • PK%: 31st ----> 28th (+3, but only a 0.12% increase)
In other words, our "defense-first" coach has helped us become significantly worse at defense, no real change on the PK, moderately better at scoring, moderately better at taking penalties, and moderately worse on the PP.

I'm no pro but I'd also wager those improvements in 5v5 scoring have come from individual players growing more accustomed to the league, not from coaching.

Eye test to me says the D issues have mostly to do with possession time. We don't win faceoffs, and then follow that up by not hunting pucks well. It's not a good combo, and on some nights you just spend most of the game chasing.

I don't know how to track this, but are those lopsided shot total games mostly ones where we get wiped out in the FOs and had the inability to get takeaways? Are games we do well in better in those categories?

Also, those first two stats don't make sense to me. Not that we're good this year ... but how were we that good last year in those categories? Something doesn't smell right about that.
 
Cronin hasn’t coached the team to a 20 point increase in the standings, the goalie coaches have.
That’s not my point, my point is, do the Samuelis want to pay two coaches while the team is moving up? If they were getting progressively worse I could see it, can I see them wanting to do it while the team has improved upon last season, not really

I myself don’t care if they move on from Cronin or not I just would hope that if PV is going to do that that he’s going to be aggressive in the offseason (I think he will regardless) otherwise I don’t see much point
 
That’s not my point, my point is, do the Samuelis want to pay two coaches while the team is moving up? If they were getting progressively worse I could see it, can I see them wanting to do it while the team has improved upon last season, not really
See my edit, but also -the team ISN’T better, they just have more points, because we have been getting elite goaltending. We are wasting the cheap years of a lot of players.
 
Even if PV wants to fire Cronin, do people really see the Samuelis saying “Sure, we’ll pay another coach in addition to your handpicked coach who improved the team by 20 points this season”? Because I really don’t see it

So is it actually confirmed that the third year is a true third year instead of an option year?
 
Even if PV wants to fire Cronin, do people really see the Samuelis saying “Sure, we’ll pay another coach in addition to your handpicked coach who improved the team by 20 points this season”? Because I really don’t see it

I agree that it would be fairly out of character for the owners. However, the one thing that gives me pause is the rumor that Verbeek was considering firing Cronin last offseason when players were so critical. But it's unclear how accurate that rumor was.

I think Cronin gets to start the year with the team, but his leash will hopefully be short.
 
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So is it actually confirmed that the third year is a true third year instead of an option year?
I’m not necessarily directing this towards you, but I’m not really sure what reason people have for thinking Cronin was signed to a 2 year deal + option year? Most NHL coaches are signed to at least 3 year deals, Lebrun reported that Cronin has one year left on his contract, the only people I’ve seen suggest that his contract less than that are HF posters who see the idea that we gave Cronin a 3 year deal unfathomable (despite the fact that nearly every NHL HC is hired to a contract of that length). If anyone can provide a source that indicates otherwise then I’ll take their word for it but from everything I’ve seen so far the idea that Cronin isn’t under contract for next season seems to be nothing more than cope
 
I agree that it would be fairly out of character for the owners. However, the one thing that gives me pause is the rumor that Verbeek was considering firing Cronin last offseason when players were so critical. But it's unclear how accurate that rumor was.

I think Cronin gets to start the year with the team, but his leash will hopefully be short.
Last year the team only improved by 1 point, so far this season they have improved by 19. So I wouldn’t expect the same level of urgency. But I agree with you that PV will likely keep Cronin around, but with the understanding that any regression from this season will result in him being fired.
 
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This is why there was minimal change between ‘22-23 and ‘23-24, and a big jump between last year and this year. “But Dostal is the same!” No, the team has just been that bad since mid March, and there’s still valid concerns as to whether Dostal can handle a starter’s load.

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Perhaps the team is playing better in front of the goalies?

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That’s not my point, my point is, do the Samuelis want to pay two coaches while the team is moving up? If they were getting progressively worse I could see it, can I see them wanting to do it while the team has improved upon last season, not really

I myself don’t care if they move on from Cronin or not I just would hope that if PV is going to do that that he’s going to be aggressive in the offseason (I think he will regardless) otherwise I don’t see much point

Last year the team only improved by 1 point, so far this season they have improved by 19. So I wouldn’t expect the same level of urgency. But I agree with you that PV will likely keep Cronin around, but with the understanding that any regression from this season will result in him being fired.

It's crazy to believe this 19 point improvement belies the product on the ice, especially when all the advanced and basic metric point to a progressively worse team without it's netminders standing on their heads.

What is hilarious is that the team improved by 1 point last year, but with a vastly improved roster from the previous season under Eakins. The offensive ineptness continued into year 2. The defense hasn't improved either. The coach hasn't improved team play. We have individuals showing up while the goalies have kept in games long enough for those individual plays to occur later in games with nine comeback wins.

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The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over again and expecting a different outcome. Again, despite the 19 point improvement, all the basic and advance metrics are the same or worsen for the past two years - which many others have already chimed in. The point improvement can be pointed to the goalies and their supreme effort. The GSAx difference between the two seasons is 44.6 goals save above expected. Currently, we have allowed 41 fewer goals against.

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It's crazy to believe this 19 point improvement belies the product on the ice, especially when all the advanced and basic metric point to a progressively worse team without it's netminders standing on their heads.

What is hilarious is that the team improved by 1 point last year, but with a vastly improved roster from the previous season under Eakins. The offensive ineptness continued into year 2. The defense hasn't improved either. The coach hasn't improved team play. We have individuals showing up while the goalies have kept in games long enough for those individual plays to occur later in games with nine comeback wins.

View attachment 1012681

View attachment 1012625

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over again and expecting a different outcome. Again, despite the 19 point improvement, all the basic and advance metrics are the same or worsen for the past two years - which many others have already chimed in. The point improvement can be pointed to the goalies and their supreme effort. The GSAx difference between the two seasons is 44.6 goals save above expected. Currently, we have allowed 41 fewer goals against.

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Ok I mean convince the samuelis of this idc either way I’m just saying I don’t think Cronin has done enough to where THEY will be comfortable with paying a second coach
 
As me and my good buddy @Leonardo87 were discussing in person at the game the other day the kids are playing well and Cronin has a year left on his contract, who exactly is PV bringing in as HC to justify moving on from Cronin? I mean if he has a legit NHL head coach ready to come in here and run a program sure, go ahead and make the switch but if not? Might as well see if Cronin can build on this season and if there’s any sign of regression go ahead and pull the trigger on him and make a switch. But if the best you can do is bring in another perennial assistant, you might as well just see if Cronin can build on this season or not
 
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