Prospect Info: 2024-2025 Rangers Prospects Thread (Prospect Stats in Post #1; Updated 2/10/2025)

[Ranger Ric]

As of right now, 3 of the Rangers 6 picks in this year's draft are in the 6th and 7th round.

A recent article in the Athletic discussed the success of playing in the NHL while drafted in these rounds. As of the time of the article, 43 skaters and 10 goalies have played in the NHL this year, a little more than 1 per team. Of these there are a few that have been very good players (MacKenzie Weeger, Jesper Bratt, Brandon Hagel), solid depth players and AHL/NHL tweeners. That's less than 1/10 the NHL skaters taken in the first two rounds.

The Rangers have drafted three of those 43 skaters (and would have had 4 if Jesper Fast were not injured this year): Matt Rempe (6th in 2020), Adam Edstrom (6th in 2019) and Morgan Barron (6th in 2017). Jesper Fast was drafted in the 6th round in 2010. Others taken in these rounds still in the system are Hugo Ollas, (7th round 2020), Hank Kempf (7th round 2021), Ty Hendricks and Dylan Roobroeck (both taken in the 6th round in 2023) and Rico Gredig (taken in the 6th round in 2024) with Ollas and Roobroeck already signed to NHL contracts.

I'd like to see the Rangers add to their draft portfolio in the next few years having traded away so many picks in the last couple of years but the team's success in drafting 6th and 7th round players suggests that the Rangers may find some players with their 3 end of draft picks.

 

[nyr2k2]

As of right now, 3 of the Rangers 6 picks in this year's draft are in the 6th and 7th round.

A recent article in the Athletic discussed the success of playing in the NHL while drafted in these rounds. As of the time of the article, 43 skaters and 10 goalies have played in the NHL this year, a little more than 1 per team. Of these there are a few that have been very good players (MacKenzie Weeger, Jesper Bratt, Brandon Hagel), solid depth players and AHL/NHL tweeners. That's less than 1/10 the NHL skaters taken in the first two rounds.

The Rangers have drafted three of those 43 skaters (and would have had 4 if Jesper Fast were not injured this year): Matt Rempe (6th in 2020), Adam Edstrom (6th in 2019) and Morgan Barron (6th in 2017). Jesper Fast was drafted in the 6th round in 2010. Others taken in these rounds still in the system are Hugo Ollas, (7th round 2020), Hank Kempf (7th round 2021), Ty Hendricks and Dylan Roobroeck (both taken in the 6th round in 2023) and Rico Gredig (taken in the 6th round in 2024) with Ollas and Roobroeck already signed to NHL contracts.

I'd like to see the Rangers add to their draft portfolio in the next few years having traded away so many picks in the last couple of years but the team's success in drafting 6th and 7th round players suggests that the Rangers may find some players with their 3 end of draft picks.

I'm optimistic about Roobroeck. Kempf to me doesn't look like an NHL player, but who knows. Ollas, I haven't seen much to be optimistic about since he turned pro, but you never know with goalies. Especially huge ones like him. He could figure it out in three years.

Henricks I've seen a couple times now and he didn't really stick out in any kind of noticeable way. He was always a bit of a project though so we'll see where he's at in a few seasons. Gredig, I honestly know nothing about him. He seemed reasonably talented in the WJC but I only saw him like twice, and I haven't seen him at all in the Swiss NL.

 

[Ranger Ric]

I'm optimistic about Roobroeck. Kempf to me doesn't look like an NHL player, but who knows. Ollas, I haven't seen much to be optimistic about since he turned pro, but you never know with goalies. Especially huge ones like him. He could figure it out in three years.

Henricks I've seen a couple times now and he didn't really stick out in any kind of noticeable way. He was always a bit of a project though so we'll see where he's at in a few seasons. Gredig, I honestly know nothing about him. He seemed reasonably talented in the WJC but I only saw him like twice, and I haven't seen him at all in the Swiss NL.

With 6th and 7th round picks if any of these guys makes the NHL it's a huge win. Agree that Roobroeck has the best shot of these five.

 

[kovazub94]

As of right now, 3 of the Rangers 6 picks in this year's draft are in the 6th and 7th round.

A recent article in the Athletic discussed the success of playing in the NHL while drafted in these rounds. As of the time of the article, 43 skaters and 10 goalies have played in the NHL this year, a little more than 1 per team. Of these there are a few that have been very good players (MacKenzie Weeger, Jesper Bratt, Brandon Hagel), solid depth players and AHL/NHL tweeners. That's less than 1/10 the NHL skaters taken in the first two rounds.

The Rangers have drafted three of those 43 skaters (and would have had 4 if Jesper Fast were not injured this year): Matt Rempe (6th in 2020), Adam Edstrom (6th in 2019) and Morgan Barron (6th in 2017). Jesper Fast was drafted in the 6th round in 2010. Others taken in these rounds still in the system are Hugo Ollas, (7th round 2020), Hank Kempf (7th round 2021), Ty Hendricks and Dylan Roobroeck (both taken in the 6th round in 2023) and Rico Gredig (taken in the 6th round in 2024) with Ollas and Roobroeck already signed to NHL contracts.

I'd like to see the Rangers add to their draft portfolio in the next few years having traded away so many picks in the last couple of years but the team's success in drafting 6th and 7th round players suggests that the Rangers may find some players with their 3 end of draft picks.

So way less than 2 players per team that corresponds to also well over 10 draft years = under 10% success rate per pick.

Hopefully it explains when I don't understand excitement of some folk trying to offload someone like Vesey or Jones for what would ultimately add up to a throw away.

 

[Ranger Ric]

It's actually much less that a 10% success rate for 6th and 7th rounders. The Athletic story compared these players to players drafted in the first two rounds. But just using 23 players per team and 32 teams gives you at least 736 players in the NHL so far this season and if each team called up five players that would be another 160 players. So the actual number of players is likely over 900 of which only 43 skaters and 10 goalies are drafted in the 6th and 7th rounds. So the success rate is much closer to 5 percent.

Your point about the value of these picks is accurate and your lack of excitement justified.

But if there are 900 players in the NHL in a year and 474 skaters and 26 goalies were drafted in the first two rounds, and you subtract out the 53 taken in the last two rounds, then 350 players were taken in rounds 3-5 or were free agents. That's roughly 10 per team.

Players picked in the 3-5 rounds can have value. Just looking at the last five drafts the Rangers have used or could use Zac Jones (2019 -- 3rd), Dylan Garand (2020 -- 4th), Brett Berard (2020 -- 5th), Brody Lamb, Talyn Boyko and Kalle Vaisenen, (2021 -- 4th), Jaroslav Chmelar (2021 5th), BMB (2022 -- 3rd), Noah Laba (2022 -- 4th), Victor Mancini (2022 -- 5th) and Drew Fortescue (2023 3rd). Three have played in the NHL, Garand has been called up as a backup goalie and Laba and Fortescue in particular look like they can be NHL players.

Picks in these rounds can have value. If we could get picks in these rounds for players like Jones and Vesey, particularly since they are not likely to be in NY next year, then there is value to that trade.

 

[cheech70]

 

[Mugless]

His pass before the goal was pretty damn good.

 

[kovazub94]

It's actually much less that a 10% success rate for 6th and 7th rounders. The Athletic story compared these players to players drafted in the first two rounds. But just using 23 players per team and 32 teams gives you at least 736 players in the NHL so far this season and if each team called up five players that would be another 160 players. So the actual number of players is likely over 900 of which only 43 skaters and 10 goalies are drafted in the 6th and 7th rounds. So the success rate is much closer to 5 percent.

Your point about the value of these picks is accurate and your lack of excitement justified.

But if there are 900 players in the NHL in a year and 474 skaters and 26 goalies were drafted in the first two rounds, and you subtract out the 53 taken in the last two rounds, then 350 players were taken in rounds 3-5 or were free agents. That's roughly 10 per team.

Players picked in the 3-5 rounds can have value. Just looking at the last five drafts the Rangers have used or could use Zac Jones (2019 -- 3rd), Dylan Garand (2020 -- 4th), Brett Berard (2020 -- 5th), Brody Lamb, Talyn Boyko and Kalle Vaisenen, (2021 -- 4th), Jaroslav Chmelar (2021 5th), BMB (2022 -- 3rd), Noah Laba (2022 -- 4th), Victor Mancini (2022 -- 5th) and Drew Fortescue (2023 3rd). Three have played in the NHL, Garand has been called up as a backup goalie and Laba and Fortescue in particular look like they can be NHL players.

Picks in these rounds can have value. If we could get picks in these rounds for players like Jones and Vesey, particularly since they are not likely to be in NY next year, then there is value to that trade.

I was being very generous when I said UNDER 10% (hopefully people understand how low that is even without the precision of what that percentage actually is).

To your other point - I don’t like how you lump 1-5 rounds into the same bucket. Majority of players represent 1-2 rounds (even between 1st and 2nd there’s a huge drop) after which it drops significantly so 3rd round success is closer to 6-7 than 1st.

In a separate post I also acknowledged the value of accumulating these later picks for rebuilding organization that should reach a point where there should be some rate of success from having A LOT of these picks. For an “average” non-rebuilding team these accumulating these quantities of later picks are just not attainable. (The success of 2020 draft and a slew of quality depth prospects by the Rangers is more on exception than a rule).

Edit 1: Your math might be a bit wrong as you attributed the difference between 736 and 900 to non-1/2 rounders.
Edit 2: I actually do want to acknowledge that it should be considered to a degree a success for an organization if some of these turn into long term AHL players.

 

[nyr2k2]

If you go back to 2000 (let's never look back at 99), we've only had a handful of guys that I thought has legitimate chances to be high-end first line players:

Lafreniere
JT Miller
Kreider
Cherepanov

Perreault is the fifth name on that list for me. He has sooo much potential.

FWIW I wasn't sure about Kakko but once I saw him in his D+1 I thought he was potentially like a 30-30 guy, very good but not in that top tier. Kravtsov I never particularly liked--I had him pegged as a 35-40 point player pretty early on.

 

[kovazub94]

If you go back to 2000 (let's never look back at 99), we've only had a handful of guys that I thought has legitimate chances to be high-end first line players:

Lafreniere
JT Miller
Kreider
Cherepanov

Perreault is the fifth name on that list for me. He has sooo much potential.

FWIW I wasn't sure about Kakko but once I saw him in his D+1 I thought he was potentially like a 30-30 guy, very good but not in that top tier. Kravtsov I never particularly liked--I had him pegged as a 35-40 point player pretty early on.

Kravtsov maybe finally had his “JT Miller” moment this season in the K for whatever it’s worth. He’s not coming back to the Rangers (and Drury lol) but maybe he’ll decide to give it another try in the NHL.

 

[nyr2k2]

Kravtsov maybe finally had his “JT Miller” moment this season in the K for whatever it’s worth. He’s not coming back to the Rangers (and Drury lol) but maybe he’ll decide to give it another try in the NHL.

Yeah, I saw he had a better season this year, although I always have questions about how that transfers to the NHL. I think the KHL has taken a bit of a hit in terms of overall quality since a lot of European players left when the war started. I don't know how many have come back but I remember most of the Swedes and Finns for example had left.

Anyway it's hard to know if it's "NHL real" or if he's just Stephane Da Costa. Maybe we find out next year.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Kravtsov maybe finally had his “JT Miller” moment this season in the K for whatever it’s worth. He’s not coming back to the Rangers (and Drury lol) but maybe he’ll decide to give it another try in the NHL.

The quality of that league has fallen through the floor.

 

[nyr2k2]

The quality of that league has fallen through the floor.

I've heard people say that to varying degrees. I haven't watched the league at all really, since Kravtsov was last over there while still part of our organization.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I've heard people say that to varying degrees. I haven't watched the league at all really, since Kravtsov was last over there while still part of our organization.

The exodus of not just the non-Russian teams (Jokerit, Dinamo Riga, Slovan Bratislava) but also non-Russian players has severely affected the level of play. A lot of Finnish and Swedish players left the KHL en masse and moved to either Liiga, SHL or NL.

It's hard to really gauge the extend of this decline because the Spengler Cup, the only tournament where KHL teams would play competitively against foreign teams, hasn't had a Russian team since Salavat Yulaev Ufa in 2019.

And even that tournament was never taken too serious by KHL teams anyway.