Prospect Info: 2024-2025 Rangers Prospects Thread (Prospect Stats in Post #1; Updated 12/15/2024)

[Raspewtin]

delete

 

[RempireStateBuilding]

BC playing UMass Lowell again tonight at 7.

 

[RempireStateBuilding]

1-1 BC/UMass, middle of the 2nd. UMass scored on the PP. Pretty sure they said it was the first PP goal against BC has let in all year. They've played 15 games this season.

 

[RempireStateBuilding]

3-2 BC after 2, BC scored 2 in the time it took me to microwave some popcorn. UMass then scored with ~50 seconds left in the period, 15 seconds after Hagens' goal. 3rd BC goal was by Hagens assisted by Perreault on the PP.

Also that PP goal against BC was their first all season - they were 39/39 or something on the season.

 

[Irishguy42]

I'm going to be honest, 0-1-1 in 17GP is kinda shitty for a first round pick defenseman in ANY league, whether they are defense or offense first.

No matter whether you slide towards being better defensively or offensively in the minor leagues, it trends better for your NHL career if you A) have more points and B) shoot a lot.

That's it. That's the secret to drafting well. Shooters and point-getters, mostly the former. Even defense-first defensemen do better than what EJ is doing.

I don't think there is a valid argument/context to describe anything other than "disappointing" for him so far, even with him being a freshman. He's performing at the level of a freshman 3rd round pick or lower. If he's built in the same vein as K'Andre, with size/reach/etc for the college level, then I ain't buying what Drury was selling.

 

[cwede]

I'm going to be honest, 0-1-1 in 17GP is kinda shitty for a first round pick defenseman in ANY league, whether they are defense or offense first.
...
I don't think there is a valid argument/context to describe anything other than "disappointing" for him so far, even with him being a freshman.

no disrespect intended, but I thoroughly disagree,

he's very young, both UND and Team USA Staff showing confidence in him.
NCAA freshman on top teams get fewer impact assignments

He just got drafted, I wish eveyrone here would just forget about him for a couple seasons,
then you'll have more meaningful data to consider.

you imply weak drafting, i think it could also be smart drafting,
looking beyond the easy numbers to identify a likely impact career

 

[nyr2k2]

His production is underwhelming, but that's okay. Brock Faber produced at a similar level in the USHL. He scored 12 points as a freshman but didn't really improve on that at all as a sophomore. It wasn't until he was a junior that he showed legitimate offensive upside, and we see how he turned out. Or Emery could be a Chris Tanev, who doesn't really score at all but who is very good at passing and transporting the puck.

For Emery the biggest thing is just to show progress, which is really no different than any of the other prospects.

To be clear, I agree that there's a high correlation between scoring at lower levels and making it in any capacity in the NHL. Generally, even defensive specialists can score in junior hockey or to a lesser degree in NCAA hockey. It's not a rule, though.

 

[Irishguy42]

To be clear, I agree that there's a high correlation between scoring at lower levels and making it in any capacity in the NHL. Generally, even defensive specialists can score in junior hockey or to a lesser degree in NCAA hockey. It's not a rule, though.

It's not a rule, but it's a strong correlation in most minor leagues.

 

[Irishguy42]

no disrespect intended, but I thoroughly disagree,

he's very young, both UND and Team USA Staff showing confidence in him.
NCAA freshman on top teams get fewer impact assignments

He just got drafted, I wish eveyrone here would just forget about him for a couple seasons,
then you'll have more meaningful data to consider.

you imply weak drafting, i think it could also be smart drafting,
looking beyond the easy numbers to identify a likely impact career

Guessing based on past assumptions you mentioned don't really matter here more than noted statistical history does.

I don't really care about Team USA staff showing confidence in him b/c lol? When has that meant anything?

"Forgetting about him for a couple of seasons" also doesn't matter as starting off weak doesn't bode well, but sure we'll see what happens by the end of the season. Maybe he goes off for an extra 10 points or so.

Weak drafting vs smart drafting doesn't mean anything as after a year or two it's really all luck for most prospects, and not dependent on what the Rangers do/do not do.

As for beyond the "easy numbers it's easy to identify a likely impact career", wake me up when he's had a college career that matches Chad Rhuwedel or beyond, and then we'll talk.

 

[nyr2k2]

It's not a rule, but it's a strong correlation in most minor leagues.

Right which is why I said it, LOL.

Guys develop differently. The book on him coming into the draft was a guy with excellent defensive tools and some latent offensive skill that would require some real development. We haven't seen that development yet, but he's a really young guy and has plenty of runway in front of him. I don't see anything to worry about at this point.

 

[JohnC]

I mean, Brady Skjei had 4(?) points as a freshman and they profile as very similar players.

 

[eco's bones]

I mean, Brady Skjei had 4(?) points as a freshman and they profile as very similar players.

Actually it was 3 points in 36 games. His second year he had 14 points and his junior year he had 10.

Skjei and Emery compare pretty closely--similar size when they were drafted one at 28 OA and the other 30 OA. Both known for their skating and defensive play.

Keeping in mind Mancini who though a 5th round pick was pretty much a stay at home defender throughout his college years. Didn't put up much offense at all. Coming into his first pro year I was kind of shocked seeing this guy going on the offense as much as he has. Where did that come from?

 

[Lion Hound]

Emery has to make it to Broadway just so they can play "Straight Outta Compton" everytime he scores.

 

[bhamill]

I think it’s pretty funny to start bagging on a freshman defensive defenseman prospect for not scoring after a whole 17 games…

 

[The Crypto Guy]

I think it’s pretty funny to start bagging on a freshman defensive defenseman prospect for not scoring after a whole 17 games…

Definitely pretty silly. He was looked at as a long term project and people are upset he's not dominating after 17 games?

 

[kovazub94]

Definitely pretty silly. He was looked at as a long term project and people are upset he's not dominating after 17 games?

Nobody was asking about “domination” (the concern didn’t even come from me but I hate when there’s an “extrapolation” spinning of a reasonable observation into a something else.

The real counter arguments have been voiced already - there are comparables to Emery in terms of low scoring who developed into pretty good NHLer and he’s on WJC team that has a pretty competitive selection.

 

[bhamill]

Nobody was asking about “domination” (the concern didn’t even come from me but I hate when there’s an “extrapolation” spinning of a reasonable observation into a something else.

The real counter arguments have been voiced already - there are comparables to Emery in terms of low scoring who developed into pretty good NHLer and he’s on WJC team that has a pretty competitive selection.

Fair point.
That being said: He was looked at pre draft as a "unicorn"... a potential elite defensive defensman. I know that generally even defensive specialists tend to score at lower levels, but he wasn't looked at that way. And honestly if he does turn out to be a defensive beast IDGAF if he never scores more than 5 points at ANY level. I really just do not, and I don't think him not doing that lessens the chance that HE becomes that defensive machine. I think he's outside of that box.

 

[eco's bones]

Sometimes with defenseman it seems to me that production numbers only tell you so much. Ryan McDonagh was taken 12 OA in his draft Brendan Smith 27 OA. They both played the same 3 years at Wisconsin U. McDonagh was a stay at home guy and put up 12, 16 and 18 point seasons. Smith looked like he was going to turn into a big time puck moving offensive D---going from 12 to 23 to 52 the year Wisconsin played the NCAA final game against Chris Kreider's Boston College that BC won.

Once McDonagh and Smith hit the pros though McDonagh's offensive game dramatically improved and Smith's offensive game never really took off. Ryan also had a stronger defensive foundation to his game than Smith ever did. Ryan has always had that. Smith has pretty much been an okay defender and when you look at Emery having his defensive and skating abilities should give him the same kind of foundation that McD had/has. Whether his offense ever comes around is another question and right now that remains to be seen.

 

[kovazub94]

Fair point.
That being said: He was looked at pre draft as a "unicorn"... a potential elite defensive defensman. I know that generally even defensive specialists tend to score at lower levels, but he wasn't looked at that way. And honestly if he does turn out to be a defensive beast IDGAF if he never scores more than 5 points at ANY level. I really just do not, and I don't think him not doing that lessens the chance that HE becomes that defensive machine. I think he's outside of that box.

It's all about pro and con variables that we don't know whether he'd become an NHL regular until much later. Not scoring has been a negative factor and I'm typically on the side where not being able to score at a lower level is a concern. However, it's a lesser concern for defensive defenseman than any other (skating) position and we see that it's not an issue for WJC selection "committee" nor some of the insiders that noted Emery as a great pickup for the Rangers in their draft position.

With less than 20 game into his D+1 season - too early to make an issue out of this. We should see down the line if it was a red flag but this is way down the line...

 

[bhamill]

It's all about pro and con variables that we don't know whether he'd become an NHL regular until much later. Not scoring has been a negative factor and I'm typically on the side where not being able to score at a lower level is a concern. However, it's a lesser concern for defensive defenseman than any other (skating) position and we see that it's not an issue for WJC selection "committee" nor some of the insiders that noted Emery as a great pickup for the Rangers in their draft position.

With less than 20 game into his D+1 season - too early to make an issue out of this. We should see down the line if it was a red flag but this is way down the line...

I hear what you are saying, but I honestly do not care if he scores at all as long as the defensive part of his game continues to develop. Don't get me wrong it would be a welcome bonus, but for me has no bearing on how good a defensive prospect he is. No offense, great defense is the book on him. Regardless of the norm, you don't need the former to be great at the latter. For me applying the norm to him means nothing.

 

[kovazub94]

I hear what you are saying, but I honestly do not care if he scores at all as long as the defensive part of his game continues to develop. Don't get me wrong it would be a welcome bonus, but for me has no bearing on how good a defensive prospect he is. No offense, great defense is the book on him. Regardless of the norm, you don't need the former to be great at the latter. For me applying the norm to him means nothing.

It's not about offensive game being a bonus - it's an INDICATOR of how quickly (as NHL quality prospect should) he's able to process the game at that level. Even defensive defensemen should have good offensive numbers at the lower level. Again, there are examples of NHL players that were able to "overcome" not having offensive numbers as prospects.

 

[UnSandvich]

Emery's biggest weaknesses pre-draft were his hockey IQ and in particular his puck-moving ability. He was a divisive prospect though with some widely different rankings. Button had him 16th, Elite Prospects 31st, HockeyProspect (my go-to) 59th.

"So, we have a 6’3” frame with huge athletic upside. He’s a better 1-on-1 defender than anything else. E.J. isn’t a natural mauler or big hitter despite how he often gaps up in the neutral zone. And the puck skills might actually be a stopper in terms of NHL upside. His decisions with the puck put some caution on the overall hockey sense and mental processor that this player offers as well. Even in lengthy in-zone coverage situations, there are moments when Emery seems to freeze for a couple beats trying to figure out what’s happening and even then he doesn’t always come away with neutralizing the biggest threat. Emery says he models his game after K’Andre Miller – and there’s some stylistic connection there – but Miller was bigger, meaner, and more skilled by a significant degree. "

Hockey Prospect's Black Book last year

 

[kovazub94]

Emery's biggest weaknesses pre-draft were his hockey IQ and in particular his puck-moving ability. He was a divisive prospect though with some widely different rankings. Button had him 16th, Elite Prospects 31st, HockeyProspect (my go-to) 59th.

"So, we have a 6’3” frame with huge athletic upside. He’s a better 1-on-1 defender than anything else. E.J. isn’t a natural mauler or big hitter despite how he often gaps up in the neutral zone. And the puck skills might actually be a stopper in terms of NHL upside. His decisions with the puck put some caution on the overall hockey sense and mental processor that this player offers as well. Even in lengthy in-zone coverage situations, there are moments when Emery seems to freeze for a couple beats trying to figure out what’s happening and even then he doesn’t always come away with neutralizing the biggest threat. Emery says he models his game after K’Andre Miller – and there’s some stylistic connection there – but Miller was bigger, meaner, and more skilled by a significant degree. "

Hockey Prospect's Black Book last year

Puck moving ability is not part of hockey IQ, a separate category. For defensive defenseman hockey IG is more about knowing where to be and / or where to go for defensive coverage.

 

[UnSandvich]

Puck moving ability is not part of hockey IQ, a separate category. For defensive defenseman hockey IG is more about knowing where to be and / or where to go for defensive coverage.

Perhaps I should have separated them via comma. I'm saying they are both weaknesses, not that one is part of another. Also there's more to the prospect eval than just one paragraph, it's more than a page. I just posted the quick and dirty summary paragraph at the end.

I HIGHLY recommend following HP for draft coverage, I think they're an excellent resource and do a phenomenal job of scouting

 

[bhamill]

It's not about offensive game being a bonus - it's an INDICATOR of how quickly (as NHL quality prospect should) he's able to process the game at that level. Even defensive defensemen should have good offensive numbers at the lower level. Again, there are examples of NHL players that were able to "overcome" not having offensive numbers as prospects.

It’s NORMALLY an indicator. Not always. And I don’t think it is in THIS case.
I mean that’s the exact point I’m making.