NHL weekend rankings: A lot can change in 2 weeks, but I still believe in the Blue Jackets
By
Sean McIndoe
219
March 24, 2025
Welcome back to the rankings, which took a week off last week. That gives us more recency bias to chew on than a typical week, and that means a minor shakeup in the Top 5 that features a new number one and the return of an old friend.
But first, let’s do a quick reset on how much things have changed in two weeks, if only to remind us of how much this league and its storylines can pivot in a short time.
Bonus Five: Important things we missed by taking a week off
1. The Eastern wild-card bubble is now for one spot, not two, and it’s a turtle derby – This isn’t mathematically official, of course, but we’re close enough that we can at least pencil in the Senators for one of those spots. That’s largely because the Senators are finishing strong. But it’s also because the race for that last spot is a turtle derby. If we’re being generous, there are still as many as seven teams in the running for that last spot. Here’s the full list of those teams that have managed to win more than half of their last ten games: (tumbleweed blows by). So the Senators got hot enough to pull away, but everyone else is just jostling around, looking like they don’t especially want to bother.
2. The Western bubble turned out to be way better – We all but wrote off the West months ago, with it looking like it would be a two-team dance between the overachieving Flames and the broken Canucks. But now it looks a lot more like a four-team race, with Utah hanging around and the Blues looking strong down the stretch to hold the hammer. If this keeps up, a few of us Eastern writers might even have to stay up past 9:45 some nights to watch a few of these games.
3. The Presidents’ Trophy is down to two teams – It’s the Capitals and Jets fighting it out. For the Caps, it would be their fourth, which would move them into a tie for the second most in the trophy’s history. For the Jets, it would be the very first for both the franchise and the market. Does anyone care? Not really, especially since the Presidents’ Trophy winner hasn’t won the Cup since 2013, and not in a full season since 2008. But we should celebrate regular-season success more than we do, so let’s at least pretend to be interested.
In related news:
4. Only two divisions are still in play – The Jets and Caps will win the Central and Metro unless something really goes sideways. That leaves the Pacific up for grabs, with the Oilers and Knights battling for top spot. But it’s tough to know what to make of Los Angeles, who have a game in hand but have been up and down all year, and may or may not be a tougher out than the wild-card Wild. Meanwhile, the Atlantic is pretty simple: three good teams in the Panthers, Lightning and Leafs, and two will be forced to face off in round one while the winner probably gets the Senators.
5. We might get an Art Ross race – This one is still TBD, with Nathan MacKinnon opening up a four-point lead over the injured Leon Draisaitl in what’s probably a two-man race unless Nikita Kucherov goes nuts down the stretch again. MacKinnon and Draisaitl also seem like the front-runners for the Hart Trophy, even though it should go to Connor Hellebuyck. And Draisaitl has already locked up the Rocket Richard, and is one goal away from 50 in a season where he’ll be the only one to hit that milestone. (And yes, that does mean a whole lot of you
are screwed in the prediction contest. Don’t think I’ve forgotten.)
Road to the Cup
The five teams with the best chances of winning the Stanley Cup.
Game of the weekend honors go to the Canadiens and Avalanche:
5. Carolina Hurricanes (43-23-4, +37 true goals differential*) – Their eight-game win streak was snapped on Saturday in a big way in Los Angeles, but they’ve looked good and that first-round matchup with the Devils seems more winnable with each week that goes by. They’re back in the Top 5 for the first time since early February.
4. Vegas Golden Knights (42-20-8, +49) – The Oilers still can’t get going, although that’s largely due to some big injuries that should heal up by the postseason. Still, with those three Atlantic teams refusing to sort anything out, we’ve got room for a Pacific team in our mix.
3. Dallas Stars (44-21-4, +52) – After a brief boost up to the top spot in the wake of the Mikko Rantanen deal, they drop down after just one regulation win in their last eight. Of far bigger concern, with a first-round meeting with the Avalanche looming, is this:
2. Washington Capitals (47-15-8, +78) – Congrats to the Caps on becoming the first team to get the “X” on the standings page, clinching the league’s first playoff spot on Thursday. Meanwhile, we’re down to seven goals to go for Alex Ovechkin’s goal-scoring record chase,
which is a bad thing.
1. Winnipeg Jets (48-19-4, +76) – This feature from Murat on
Chris Driedger’s roller hockey documentary was a lot of fun. Meanwhile, we’re not too worried about a loss to the Sabres because the Jets still tilted the ice and any loss that comes without Hellebuyck in net doesn’t really count.
*Goals differential without counting shootout decisions like the NHL does for some reason.
I feel like that would be disrespectful to Ovi. Maybe Gretzky too, meh.
