Speculation: 2024-2025 General Lightning Discussion IV: We lost a game somewhere. The season is over. Start the rebuild

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Finally out of Hfboards account creation purgatory after having my account reset and wanna rant about our defense.

Raddysh is definitely our 5th best defensemen and should be playing, Lilleberg has been better of late but I think having to sit Raddysh because of his lack of chemistry with him shines light on a hole that we didn't fill at the deadline. A vet, stay at home d to round out the third pair would've done wonders.

Moser obviously deserves a lot of grace after such a long time out with injury, but truth be told I do not understand what's going on with his game right now. I thought one of his strengths has been his ability to defend against the rush, a weakness of Hedman, but since returning from injury he's been playing so deep in the o-zone that he's giving up these chances. He's doing it so consistently that I have to wonder if he's being told to, but it feels like it's hurting us a lot more than it's helping us.

Also there is a 0% chance that we don't sign Howard, and giving him some sheltered minutes down the stretch is not going to sink our chances (especially when the alternative is Chaffee lol).
 
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We gonna have to play Florida in the 1st round again? Toronto rolling right now, Florida has gone cold lately. Panthers would bully us, but Bobrovsky has not been as good in net this season.
 
We gonna have to play Florida in the 1st round again? Toronto rolling right now, Florida has gone cold lately. Panthers would bully us, but Bobrovsky has not been as good in net this season.
Toronto just lost to Nashville 5-2, which is a worse loss than losing to Utah when starting an AHL netminder.
 
Yep, I'm dumb, looked like the Leafs were going to roll, nope. We still gotta shot for the division, but not confident in it, considering the inconsistencies lately.
I mean, they could easily lose the race between the three teams, but today's loss with a non-NHL goalie not withstanding, Tampa was 13-3-2 in their previous 16 I believe. We'll see how they rebound tomorrow. If they play well and get the 2 points, ull still have a high level of confidence. If they play like garbage again and lose, it'll be another blow.
 
I know there's been complaints about Bjorkstrand's lack of production so far, so was curious what the underlying numbers have looked like and it's pretty wild what a turn around the third line has had his addition:

1742854599246.png


Expected Goals went from 42% with Paul/Goncalves/X to 70% with Bjorkstrand added. Scoring chances went from 48% to 66%. Shots went from 46% to 64% (with this line only allowing 12 shots in their 45 minutes together!)

All of this matches the eye test to me, our third line went from being an extreme weak link to a huge strength and Bjorkstrand's been pretty snakebitten which won't be the case for long.

I had a lot of complaints about Bjorkstrand not getting a look on the 2nd line, but honestly the way the roster's constructed right now is really good. Guentzel/Point/Gourde also has great under the hood metrics and has been solid on both sides of the ice, Hagel/Cirelli/Kucherov is arguably the strongest line in hockey.

We just need our (depth) defense to not all be playing bad at the same time and this team will start rolling again.
 
I know there's been complaints about Bjorkstrand's lack of production so far, so was curious what the underlying numbers have looked like and it's pretty wild what a turn around the third line has had his addition:

View attachment 998718

Expected Goals went from 42% with Paul/Goncalves/X to 70% with Bjorkstrand added. Scoring chances went from 48% to 66%. Shots went from 46% to 64% (with this line only allowing 12 shots in their 45 minutes together!)

All of this matches the eye test to me, our third line went from being an extreme weak link to a huge strength and Bjorkstrand's been pretty snakebitten which won't be the case for long.

I had a lot of complaints about Bjorkstrand not getting a look on the 2nd line, but honestly the way the roster's constructed right now is really good. Guentzel/Point/Gourde also has great under the hood metrics and has been solid on both sides of the ice, Hagel/Cirelli/Kucherov is arguably the strongest line in hockey.

We just need our (depth) defense to not all be playing bad at the same time and this team will start rolling again.
Which is kinda the issue with not adding another quality D with term over the past couple deadlines. I will give BriseBois credit for getting McDonagh back and replacing Sergachev with a much cheaper D in Moser. Issue right now is having to watch Raddysh producing nothing offensively while making mistakes in his own zone and Perbix take forever to make decisions and then end up still turning it over or be out of position. I like Lilleberg more than most even though he's had his ups and downs this season, but we're not stable enough with our overall defense group right now. Hedman and McDonagh have shown signs of age, Moser hasn't been as good since coming back from injury. Cernak has been good for the most part this year, that is positive.
 
Which is kinda the issue with not adding another quality D with term over the past couple deadlines. I will give BriseBois credit for getting McDonagh back and replacing Sergachev with a much cheaper D in Moser. Issue right now is having to watch Raddysh producing nothing offensively while making mistakes in his own zone and Perbix take forever to make decisions and then end up still turning it over or be out of position. I like Lilleberg more than most even though he's had his ups and downs this season, but we're not stable enough with our overall defense group right now. Hedman and McDonagh have shown signs of age, Moser hasn't been as good since coming back from injury. Cernak has been good for the most part this year, that is positive.
I would wager that, especially with 2 or 3 talented F prospects on the way, the Lightning will be using all available cap space they can this summer on signing or trading for a dman. It also wouldn't surprise if they make a move for one next tdl either and especially in the summer of '26, when the cap will really jump.
 
The D is fine as is. Sure, you want some stability on the bottom pair but any two of Raddysh/Perbix/Lilleberg should be good enough for a 3rd pairing. That's better than the majority of the league can muster. McDonagh/Cernak have been one of the best shutdown pairs in the league, I don't know what more anyone could possibly want from either player.

Only concerns I have are about the overall makeup of the team and their ability to handle different playstyles, but there's nothing you can do at this point. Let's see what they've got.

BriseBois said he wanted Gourde beyond this season but I do wonder if that $ could be allocated elsewhere. I'm not big on dishing out crazy money for UFA, but I do think Marner would be of interest.

Raddysh and Chaffee are on nice little contracts but should have enough value to gain back some picks, I could see them being moved in summer or pre-deadline 2026. Wouldn't mind looking at Klapka on Calgary as a guy who brings some size/toughness, but hasn't fully established himself in the league. Some decent numbers in the A.
 
I would wager that, especially with 2 or 3 talented F prospects on the way, the Lightning will be using all available cap space they can this summer on signing or trading for a dman. It also wouldn't surprise if they make a move for one next tdl either and especially in the summer of '26, when the cap will really jump.
I wonder if Brisebois goes for the big swings on someone like Chychrun, Pionk, or Fabbro
 
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Or they find a sucker for Sheary and Girgensons.
It would help a little, but after replacing Girgensons, they won't save much, if any, and Sheary would open up 850k. At most, with those moves, they'd have right around 10 million with 9F, 6D, 1G (they have 9.1 projected right now with the same numbers). Gourde in the lower 3's, and Goncalves with a small raise as wella backup G around a million or so, and 2 young F's (2 out of Geekie, Howard, Duke, Finley, Brown maybe) leaves them with around 2.5-3 for an extra dman to get to 22 (13F, 7D, 2G, and that's with moving Sheary to get them around 10 million in space). So, I think there will be some room, but not enough to go big game hunting in ufa if they keep Gourde.
 
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I would want the roster to look something like this in the off-season:

1742874901839.png


I don't think we need to got that pricy for a 5D, I'd honestly just get someone like Wotherspoon who plays sound defense to accompany Raddysh on the third pair - next year's UFA crop for D is better anyway.

Dallas is pretty screwed cap-wise and it sounds like Marchment is most likely the odd-man out, if he's available I'd throw a pick at him to round out the top 9. Add a slightly better back-up goalie in Lyon (or any of the mid-tier back-ups available) and re-sign Gourde and you have a super deep team of players that can slot anywhere in the lineup.

(these are probably optimistic contracts for everyone but hey a man can dream)
 
I would want the roster to look something like this in the off-season:

View attachment 998898

I don't think we need to got that pricy for a 5D, I'd honestly just get someone like Wotherspoon who plays sound defense to accompany Raddysh on the third pair - next year's UFA crop for D is better anyway.

Dallas is pretty screwed cap-wise and it sounds like Marchment is most likely the odd-man out, if he's available I'd throw a pick at him to round out the top 9. Add a slightly better back-up goalie in Lyon (or any of the mid-tier back-ups available) and re-sign Gourde and you have a super deep team of players that can slot anywhere in the lineup.

(these are probably optimistic contracts for everyone but hey a man can dream)
I like the lineup for the most part if they choose to add a bigger name F rather than use it towards a dman. I have my doubts they'll get Gourde.for sub 3.or Goncalves quite that cheap, but who knows with JBB.
 
I know there's been complaints about Bjorkstrand's lack of production so far, so was curious what the underlying numbers have looked like and it's pretty wild what a turn around the third line has had his addition:

View attachment 998718

Expected Goals went from 42% with Paul/Goncalves/X to 70% with Bjorkstrand added. Scoring chances went from 48% to 66%. Shots went from 46% to 64% (with this line only allowing 12 shots in their 45 minutes together!)

All of this matches the eye test to me, our third line went from being an extreme weak link to a huge strength and Bjorkstrand's been pretty snakebitten which won't be the case for long.

I had a lot of complaints about Bjorkstrand not getting a look on the 2nd line, but honestly the way the roster's constructed right now is really good. Guentzel/Point/Gourde also has great under the hood metrics and has been solid on both sides of the ice, Hagel/Cirelli/Kucherov is arguably the strongest line in hockey.

We just need our (depth) defense to not all be playing bad at the same time and this team will start rolling again.

This isn't really the third line though, they've only played 45 minutes together, Paul has played on the second line a lot more than he's been the third line center. I believe it's usually been Goncalves-Gourde-Bjorkstrand. What do the underlying stats say about them together?
 
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This isn't really the third line though, they've only played 45 minutes together, Paul has played on the second line a lot more than he's been the third line center. I believe it's usually been Goncalves-Gourde-Bjorkstrand. What do the underlying stats say about them together?
That line has only played 22 minutes together but they do have a lot worse advanced stats/shot differentials than the Paul Line. I don't think they've played that line since that Mar 13th game in Philly though.
1742912240688.png

The Goncalves/Paul/Bjorkstrand line has remained pretty much untouched since so I think it's likely that it's probably what our 3rd line will look like come playoffs.

I like the lineup for the most part if they choose to add a bigger name F rather than use it towards a dman. I have my doubts they'll get Gourde.for sub 3.or Goncalves quite that cheap, but who knows with JBB.
Yeah, like I said, probably optimistic. I think Goncalves will end up around that price but Gourde and Lyon will probably cost more unless they can sell Gourde on a sweetheart deal (or potentially throw a year or two extra on it) he is 34 after all. Honestly the only d that I would want to go in on this off-season would be Gavrikov to be a replacement for McDonagh as he ages but I have to imagine that he will not come cheap.
 
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Finally out of Hfboards account creation purgatory after having my account reset and wanna rant about our defense.

Raddysh is definitely our 5th best defensemen and should be playing, Lilleberg has been better of late but I think having to sit Raddysh because of his lack of chemistry with him shines light on a hole that we didn't fill at the deadline. A vet, stay at home d to round out the third pair would've done wonders.

Moser obviously deserves a lot of grace after such a long time out with injury, but truth be told I do not understand what's going on with his game right now. I thought one of his strengths has been his ability to defend against the rush, a weakness of Hedman, but since returning from injury he's been playing so deep in the o-zone that he's giving up these chances. He's doing it so consistently that I have to wonder if he's being told to, but it feels like it's hurting us a lot more than it's helping us.

Also there is a 0% chance that we don't sign Howard, and giving him some sheltered minutes down the stretch is not going to sink our chances (especially when the alternative is Chaffee lol).
I gotta hop on this bandwagon for a moment because I was thrilled with Mosers play early in the season, but since his return from injury it has been a bit of a Chinese fire drill. His positioning seems all over the place and he can't seem to beat people to pucks, i'm not sure if its confidence or injury still but it has left something to be desired.

Also, why does Chaffee get so much shit? He has 12 goals and would likely have more points away from certain bottom six guys. He has been good?
 
I gotta hop on this bandwagon for a moment because I was thrilled with Mosers play early in the season, but since his return from injury it has been a bit of a Chinese fire drill. His positioning seems all over the place and he can't seem to beat people to pucks, i'm not sure if its confidence or injury still but it has left something to be desired.

Also, why does Chaffee get so much shit? He has 12 goals and would likely have more points away from certain bottom six guys. He has been good?
I think Moser is still hurt and probably has a bit of PTSD right now. He's not 100% in the head or in the body right now, hopefully he sorts it out.

Chaffee is the new Colton/Verhaeghe/Marchessault - lite. Dude is performing the best we could as in the position he's been put in. Like how much more do people want out of him, playing 10-12 minutes a night? Guy has 12 goals playing with Girgensons, Glendenning, Paul, Ace, and Gage as his most common linemates.
 
I gotta hop on this bandwagon for a moment because I was thrilled with Mosers play early in the season, but since his return from injury it has been a bit of a Chinese fire drill. His positioning seems all over the place and he can't seem to beat people to pucks, i'm not sure if its confidence or injury still but it has left something to be desired.

Also, why does Chaffee get so much shit? He has 12 goals and would likely have more points away from certain bottom six guys. He has been good?
I'm a huge Chaffee hater and my issue is that he's such an incomplete player that doesn't actually fit anywhere on the lineup. He's not good defensively, cannot generate for himself (or for his line mates), cannot keep the puck on his stick (takeaways/giveaways are 11 to 29), he hits a lot but he's not really big enough to make an impact, & he has the second worst expected goals of all skaters on the bolts, behind only Dylan Duke. He can finish the chances he gets but those are few and far between (he's also shooting at nearly 20% 2nd highest behind Point, which is in no way sustainable).

Like where does he actually fit on the roster? He essentially needs a playmaker to do the work for him but all of those are better served with more dependable, complete forwards. You could slot him on the RW on the third, but we've already seen that Goncalves/Paul/Chaffee doesn't work. He's pretty much reserved for the 4th line but they play no-event hockey which isn't something that he's built for, we get shelled in his minutes. I really wish it was him who went to Seattle over Eyssimont but what are you going to do
 

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