Speculation: 2024-2025 General Lightning Discussion II: Happy New Year!

[Todd1a]

Probably the deepest scoring lineup a champion has had in 20 years that wasn't us. The Penguins are worse than bad but their fans insist the crap they put on the ice is a coaching problem

The penguins have needed a full rebuild for years and there organization ignores it lol

 

[Felonious Python]

The penguins have needed a full rebuild for years and there organization ignores it lol

Crosby won't leave.

Full rebuilds are tricky, though. They'd probably just more than likely get stuck in whatever state Detroit is now, for like 15 years.

edit: Michigan

 

[Felonious Python]

The secret to all these full rebuilds is that the timeline is meaningless to players.

It's a timeline for the staff.

Year 1 - bottom out & chill
Year 2 - push for playoff spot
Year 3 - playoff spot
Year 4 - playoff damage
Year 5 - emerging contender

Then, when they lose, it's "oh, well, you see, sometimes you need to take a step back before you take a step forward in your development.", and it's not like they can trade their young guys. They had to bottom out for them. They also feel they can't trade upcoming draft picks to push their team ahead. Each of those unused future picks are far too valuable. The future stars also need lots of prime NHL minutes to grow, and they need to all be possible future stars. Having a decent star player in an important role absolutely sabotages the development path of the young guys. The sudden success could come too soon. Vets in depth roles are fine, but they need to pretty much be set for the glue factory after the season. The experience and leadership those old heads bring also isn't important enough to keep around as a coach or something. Get a younger set of old guys.

 

[Rschmitz]

Detroit needed to full tank like SJ and Chicago, instead they weren't fully committed, and ended up with some subpar drafts.

 

[Felonious Python]

Detroit needed to full tank like SJ and Chicago, instead they weren't fully committed, and ended up with some subpar drafts.

Detroit did the tanking, but the lottery never went their way.

But Detroit also didn't trade their 7th overalls, either. You'd think that teams would be desperate to move up to a spot like that. High draft picks are an asset. Not a golden ticket.

They can burn the whole team down to develop around a guy who becomes the new Robert Lang.

 

[These Are The Days]

Pittsburgh HAD the opportunity to do this with aces in the hole like a Vinny and Marty or Hedman and Stamkos. They should have done it a good 5 years ago at least. But unfortunately their fans seem to think they should have been winning Cups the whole time instead of rebuilding more so than ownership did

 

[Felonious Python]

 

[Rschmitz]

Detroit did the tanking, but the lottery never went their way.

But Detroit also didn't trade their 7th overalls, either. You'd think that teams would be desperate to move up to a spot like that. High draft picks are an asset. Not a golden ticket.

They can burn the whole team down to develop around a guy who becomes the new Robert Lang.

7th overall isn’t a full tank though. If they were serious they wouldn’t have traded for Debrincat, instead they would have traded off Larkin and eaten bad contracts for draft picks. That’s what Chicago and SJ did.

 

[Felonious Python]

7th overall isn’t a full tank though. If they were serious they wouldn’t have traded for Debrincat, instead they would have traded off Larkin and eaten bad contracts for draft picks. That’s what Chicago and SJ did.

SJ hasn't done anything yet.

Detroit spent 2017-18 through 2020-21 finishing no higher than 27th in league standings (in 2016-17, they finished 25th). The lowest they got was the year cut short by the pandemic. 31st.

I don't know how long they were supposed to have kept doing that, until some arbitrary threshold was reached.


Bedard era Chicago hasn't done anything, but the Kane era had draft hits throughout.

Crawford - 2nd round
Hjalmarsson - 4th round
Keith - 2nd round
Kane - 1st overall
Hossa - 12 year UFA deal
Towes - 3rd overall
Sharp - a sort of nothing trade at the time

Detroit hasn't gotten those later rounds.

 

[Rschmitz]

SJ hasn't done anything yet.

Detroit spent 2017-18 through 2020-21 finishing no higher than 27th in league standings. The lowest they got was the year cut short by the pandemic. 31st.

I don't know how long they were supposed to have kept doing that, until some arbitrary threshold was reached.

I just explained what they should have done, traded everyone and fully tanked. Take as long as they need to until they are fully prepared to transition back to winning.

They were hitting the gas(trading for Debrincat) and pumping the breaks(trading away Hronek), there is a big difference between drafting #1 and #6. Since they half assed the rebuild they ended up where they are now.

What do you mean SJ hasn’t done anything? They were able to draft a franchise center in Celebrini.

 

[Felonious Python]

I just explained what they should have done, traded everyone and fully tanked. They were hitting the gas(trading for Debrincat) and pumping the breaks(trading away Hronek), there is a big difference between drafting #1 and #6.

What do you mean SJ hasn’t done anything? They were able to draft a franchise center in Celebrini.

Drafting Celebrini is a zero skill move. The Hawks picked Dustin Byfuglien in the 8th round. Troy Brouwer in the 7th.

 

[Rschmitz]

Drafting Celebrini is a zero skill move. The Hawks picked Dustin Byfuglien in the 8th round. Troy Brouwer in the 7th.

Hawks also finished in the basement and were able to draft franchise players as a result. Finishing last in the standings is a strategic decision, I am not sure why you are pointing out the complimentary guys.

Just because you can find some gems in the draft doesn’t mean you don’t need a lay up franchise cornerstone or two to build around. Even with our amazing draft prowess, we are a vastly worse team if we ended up with Bogosian and Duchene by not being awful in 08/09 and getting the zero skill picks in Stamkos and Hedman.

 

[Felonious Python]

Hawks also finished in the basement and were able to draft franchise players as a result. Finishing last in the standings is a strategic decision, I am not sure why you are pointing out the complimentary guys.

Just because you can find some gems in the draft doesn’t mean you don’t need a lay up franchise cornerstone or two to build around.

The complementary guys are most of the team. These are the guys that play with the franchise players.

Andrew Shaw 5th round. Bryan Bickell 2nd round. Antti Raanta undrafted.

It's true that Detroit doesn't really have a transformational player, but they also haven't been given the support on the rest of the roster. Even if Towes and Kane were busts, they'd still have a decent team, and they could trade those complementary players for something nice.

 

[Rschmitz]

The complementary guys are most of the team. These are the guys that play with the franchise players.

Andrew Shaw 5th round. Bryan Bickell 2nd round. Antti Raanta undrafted.

It's true that Detroit doesn't really have a transformational player, but they also haven't been given the support on the rest of the roster. Even if Towes and Kane were busts, they'd still have a decent team, and they could trade those complementary players for something nice.

I would argue that those transformational players are the most important and hardest pieces to get. You don’t need to rebuild if you are just looking for complimentary pieces.

I get that Detroit hasn’t found those players yet, but I don’t think that’s a priority until you have yourself a Celebrini/Bedard first

 

[Felonious Python]

I would argue that those transformational players are the most important and hardest pieces to get. You don’t need to rebuild if you are just looking for complimentary pieces.

I get that Detroit hasn’t found those players yet, but I don’t think that’s a priority until you have yourself a Celebrini/Bedard first

Florida won with #6 overall Matthew Tkachuk, #2 overall Alex Barkov, and #1 overall Aaron Ekblad. They're good players, but not really transformational.

 

[Rschmitz]

Florida won with #6 overall Matthew Tkachuk, #2 overall Alex Barkov, and #1 overall Aaron Ekblad. They're good players, but not really transformational.

If Ekblad wasn't chronically injured he'd have had a bigger early impact. Barkov turned that franchise around, Tkachuk made them competent playoff performers.

You're forgetting that Reinhart was a #2 pick. Bennett was a #4 pick

 

[Rschmitz]

We must have different definitions of transformational. I'd consider Barkov a transformational player for sure

 

[Felonious Python]

If Ekblad wasn't chronically injured he'd have had a bigger early impact. Barkov turned that franchise around, Tkachuk made them competent playoff performers.

You're forgetting that Reinhart was a #2 pick. Bennett was a #4 pick

Bennett and Reinhardt were picked by other teams. Florida has to pay a different price to get those guys. Buffalo and Calgary did the suffering for them.

 

[Rschmitz]

Bennett and Reinhardt were picked by other teams. Florida has to pay a different price to get those guys. Buffalo and Calgary did the suffering for them.

I'm confused again, why mention Tkachuk since he was picked by another team too?

You don't have to draft your franchise players, but you can't win with a team full of complimentary players. Vegas, for instance, has quite a few franchise altering players whom they never drafted.

 

[Felonious Python]

I'm confused again, why mention Tkachuk since he was picked by another team too?

You don't have to draft your franchise players, but you can't win with a team full of complimentary players. Vegas, for instance, has quite a few franchise altering players whom they never drafted.

Yep. He was. Take that one off the list.

My point is that it's not even really necessary to strip everything down, tank for years on end for an extra special player to come along, and then somehow rebuild a winning culture.

Sign worthwhile players. Not olds on one-year deals. Trade them before their deals expire. Keep finding the opportunities to move the organization up. Sign undrafted players. Get better at drafting and developing, etc.

 

[Rschmitz]

Yep. He was. Take that one off the list.

My point is that it's not even really necessary to strip everything down, tank for years on end for an extra special player to come along, and then somehow rebuild a winning culture.

Sign worthwhile players. Not olds on one-year deals. Trade them before their deals expire. Keep finding the opportunities to move the organization up. Sign undrafted players. Get better at drafting and developing, etc.

I agree that it isn't necessary, I just think it's a lot harder not to. Vegas is the only team that comes to mind that has had success without needing to rebuild through early draft picks.

 

[Hoek]

They were hitting the gas(trading for Debrincat) and pumping the breaks(trading away Hronek), there is a big difference between drafting #1 and #6. Since they half assed the rebuild they ended up where they are now.

This is the part about the Wings I get the least from Yzerman. I do think they've had crap lottery results from their tanking and I can't fully blame him for it, but then he does a jumbled mess of moves like that and signing guys like Copp and Compher. I don't see the vision here.

 

[Todd1a]

Crosby won't leave.

Full rebuilds are tricky, though. They'd probably just more than likely get stuck in whatever state Detroit is now, for like 15 years.

edit: Michigan

I wonder how we will do the rebuild when it’s time in say that 3-5 year range ?

 

[Felonious Python]

I wonder how we will do the rebuild when it’s time in say that 3-5 year range ?

Boston had managed to shift from one core to another. They're running out of gas as they haven't been

The purpose of absolutely tanking is to acquire basically one guy, with no guarantees of success.


It's like how those true rebuilds will sign a guy at the end of his career to rent him out. He wasn't in that much demand in the off season, but apparently will fetch a ransom at the deadline.

If the price is right, sure, take that guy, but they don't know if there will actually be a market for that player in February. It's hoping to do something later, maybe, if the opportunity presents itself.


I think that there needs to be a certain amount of pure roster churn during a rebuild. Be ruthless with aging curves. Trade the top guys you do have once they're 30. Get draft picks and prospects out of it.

 

[ccman68]

When are we gonna talk about how our top line really isn’t all that good together? We’ve been trying to force it to work the whole season and it’s just not happening, and no i don’t care how many points they are putting up. When you have all your best players on a line they need to dominate.

Should go back to Hagel-Point-Kucherov and try Guentzel-Cirelli-Paul