Speculation: 2024-2025 General Lightning Discussion I

[ccman68]

Give Groshev a roster spot already, you cowards!

I’d rather have him play top line minutes in the ahl than rotting on the 4th line. though if we had any balls we’d just give him a chance with point and kuch

 

[Sky04]

Groshev:

2023-24

Syracuse Crunch

AHL

67

10

20

30

24

8

7

0

1

1

Yeah that statline is screaming give me top line NHL minutes. Geekie is the big reason he had a showing today, he's the real deal with an actual scoring resume.

 

[LordStanlersCup]

Groshev:

2023-24

Syracuse Crunch

AHL

67

10

20

30

24

8

7

0

1

1

Yeah that statline is screaming give me top line NHL minutes. Geekie is the big reason he had a showing today, he's the real deal with an actual scoring resume.

Okay and now consider he had that statline playing 12 minutes a night with no Powerplay time and his linemmates were Walcott and Dumont when he got 3rd line minutes which was only about half of the time. Also you definitely didn't watch the games this weekend if that was your takeaway

 

[Sky04]

Okay and now consider he had that statline playing 12 minutes a night with no Powerplay time and his linemmates were Walcott and Dumont when he got 3rd line minutes which was only about half of the time. Also you definitely didn't watch the games this weekend if that was your takeaway

Dumont had 2 less points in 20 less games, that's an excuse how? Linemates excuse is poor, the AHL is extremely easy to score in for anyone middle 6 talent in the NHL and he can't even produce 0.5PPG.

Look at his history, he has absymal scoring in the KHL as well - players don't magically figure out scoring every single one of our breakthrough talents has had a long track record of scoring, Groshev doesn't. Why exactly would he get PP time over people who are better offensively? That's like saying Connor Sheary isn't that bad he just doens't get PP time!

 

[JTBF81]

Tampa will almost certainly roll with a 22 player lineup again to begin, as there isn't enough cap for 23. 13F, 7D, 2G seems like the plan, and the only spots that are likely up for grabs from camp/preseason are the 12th and 13th F spots (depending on how you feel about Chaffee having a spot locked up or not), and maybe backup G (if Tomkins outshines JJ). Realistically, I'd say the last two F spots should be a battle between Chaffee, Goncalves, Ylonen, Brown, Groshev. Edmonds, and Geekie. I think Chaffee and one of Goncalves or Ylonen will ultimately get those spots, but Tampa won't have any shortage of players ready to be promoted should injury or awful play be sustained.

 

[LordStanlersCup]

Dumont had 2 less points in 20 less games, that's an excuse how? Linemates excuse is poor, the AHL is extremely easy to score in for anyone middle 6 talent in the NHL and he can't even produce 0.5PPG.

Look at his history, he has absymal scoring in the KHL as well - players don't magically figure out scoring every single one of our breakthrough talents has had a long track record of scoring, Groshev doesn't. Why exactly would he get PP time over people who are better offensively? That's like saying Connor Sheary isn't that bad he just doens't get PP time!

Dumont also had way more minutes playing large stretches of the year on the first line. Walcott and Dumont are known for being defensively minded players so the production wouldnt be there. How is he supposed to produce in the bottom 6 and no powerplay time? 0.5ppg given his circumstances is amazing. Are we really using KHL numbers for a prospect (especially coming from SKA St. Petersburg), talk to any Canadiens fan right now and they will tell you why that is flawed. If you are not going to watch the games you should at least watch the highlights, it will give you some insight

 

[Sky04]

Dumont also had way more minutes playing large stretches of the year on the first line. Walcott and Dumont are known for being defensively minded players so the production wouldnt be there. How is he supposed to produce in the bottom 6 and no powerplay time? 0.5ppg given his circumstances is amazing. Are we really using KHL numbers for a prospect (especially coming from SKA St. Petersburg), talk to any Canadiens fan right now and they will tell you why that is flawed. If you are not going to watch the games you should at least watch the highlights, it will give you some insight

Ok so he can't produce and isn't a top 6 talent and he's obviously not as good as Koepke or Merela who outperformed him last year both of which couldn't hold a 4th line role on the team and somehow Groshev is supposed to? Theres already Gongclaves who's ahead of him and is much better offensively. You talk like he's on the 3rd line for no reason, it's because he lacks offensive ability which is clearly outlined by his career stats.

 

[Rschmitz]

Groshev has always impressed me, he stands out in a good way when out there on the ice. The argument that he lacks offensive prowess doesn't stand up to the eye test.

The real simple solution to the argument that his stats in the AHL were lackluster due to inadequate scoring line minutes...is to....give him more scoring line minutes. In the AHL, not the NHL

 

[Svedu]

Any updates on Huuhtanen. Looking sluggish and slow? Or exciting?

 

[Sky04]

Groshev has always impressed me, he stands out in a good way when out there on the ice. The argument that he lacks offensive prowess doesn't stand up to the eye test.

The real simple solution to the argument that his stats in the AHL were lackluster due to inadequate scoring line minutes...is to....give him more scoring line minutes. In the AHL, not the NHL

I mean something to be said about looking "good" and not producing at all, his career offensive stats are extremely underwhelming, there isn't anything there? It's a like a poor man's Matheiu Joseph?

If he puts up better numbers sure give him a chance, I'd want to see it first. Until then the prospect we should be ushering is Goncalves who's improved every single year and is leading the charge down there.

 

[LordStanlersCup]

Ok so he can't produce and isn't a top 6 talent and he's obviously not as good as Koepke or Merela who outperformed him last year both of which couldn't hold a 4th line role on the team and somehow Groshev is supposed to? Theres already Gongclaves who's ahead of him and is much better offensively. You talk like he's on the 3rd line for no reason, it's because he lacks offensive ability which is clearly outlined by his career stats.

Where did "he can't produce" come from? He is way better than Koepke and Merela but they are older so they are going to be more likely to make the team because thats how the Lightning roll. Goncalves is also not better than Groshev, He was on the first line for most of the season and the PP1 was filtered through him and he still couldn't reach a PPG at 23 years old. I don't think you realize how much a players place in the lineup affects their stats. For example, Finley who had been injured to start the season played his first 14 games on the 4th line and recorded 3 points, he was then moved into the top 6 and recorded 29 points in his remaining 38 games.

 

[Rschmitz]

I mean something to be said about looking "good" and not producing at all, his career offensive stats are extremely underwhelming, there isn't anything there? It's a like a poor man's Matheiu Joseph?

If he puts up better numbers sure give him a chance, I'd want to see it first. Until then the prospect we should be ushering is Goncalves who's improved every single year and is leading the charge down there.

Playing and producing is a lot more dynamic than you are making it out to be, sometimes players just need to right opportunities. I mean we iced the most overlooked player in NHL history, I know talent doesn’t automatically equal production but I also lean a little more into what I see on the ice versus stats due to our long history of overlooked talent.

I get rallying around stats, you can’t argue with the pure deductive reasoning that statistics provides

 

[Sky04]

Playing and producing is a lot more dynamic than you are making it out to be, sometimes players just need to right opportunities. I mean we iced the most overlooked player in NHL history, I know talent doesn’t automatically equal production but I also lean a little more into what I see on the ice versus stats due to our long history of overlooked talent.

I get rallying around stats, you can’t argue with the pure deductive reasoning that statistics provides

Like I said, all of those guys you're referring to all had elite track records.....constantly performing at every level is a good indicator of talent, the guys who don't hit the score sheet usually phase out pretty quick. Being overlooked with a pedigree is completely different than without one. MSL, JAM, Gourde, Johnson, anyone, you name it all years of scoring pedigree.

 

[DFC]

That might be the best contract Kyle Dubas ever signed.

 

[EmptyNetAssassin]

always exciting coming here to see which useless player that no team in the league wants is gonna save us

Not sheary or atkinson.

Okay and now consider he had that statline playing 12 minutes a night with no Powerplay time and his linemmates were Walcott and Dumont when he got 3rd line minutes which was only about half of the time. Also you definitely didn't watch the games this weekend if that was your takeaway

With Walcott and Dumont he is already seasoned for cooper's 4th line scrubs.

Okay and now consider he had that statline playing 12 minutes a night with no Powerplay time and his linemmates were Walcott and Dumont when he got 3rd line minutes which was only about half of the time. Also you definitely didn't watch the games this weekend if that was your takeaway

With Walcott and Dumont he is already seasoned for cooper's 4th line scrubs.

 

[Todd1a]

Stammer also wasn't offered 8.7 mil

If we offered stamkos 6.5 million per year for 3 years would he have signed it ?

 

[Sky04]

If we offered stamkos 6.5 million per year for 3 years would he have signed it ?

Crosby taking 8.7 is the equivalent of Stamkos signing for 4M.

 

[ccman68]

from now on we should just be drafting based on who scored the most points. no need to waste money on scouts when you can see just how good everyone is based on this one stat.

 

[LordStanlersCup]

If we offered stamkos 6.5 million per year for 3 years would he have signed it ?

The rumor from Friedman was that he was asking for 4 to 5 million

 

[Sky04]

from now on we should just be drafting based on who scored the most points. no need to waste money on scouts when you can see just how good everyone is based on this one stat.

*talks about useless players on PTO

*suggests Groshev on the top line

Lmao

 

[These Are The Days]

If we offered stamkos 6.5 million per year for 3 years would he have signed it ?

Yes

 

[Felonious Python]

from now on we should just be drafting based on who scored the most points. no need to waste money on scouts when you can see just how good everyone is based on this one stat.

There are blog posts about stuff like that. It does produce pretty decent results over a long enough period of time, although NHLe might be a better metric.

What I don't see too much is reviews on how the NHL CSB did. They don't release a combined list. They have different lists for North Americans and Europeans, as well as for NA and EU goalies, but the reason a team spends so much money on their scouting staff is to theoretically beat the CSB.

 

[LordStanlersCup]

There are blog posts about stuff like that. It does produce pretty decent results over a long enough period of time, although NHLe might be a better metric.

What I don't see too much is reviews on how the NHL CSB did. They don't release a combined list. They have different lists for North Americans and Europeans, as well as for NA and EU goalies, but the reason a team spends so much money on their scouting staff is to theoretically to beat the CSB.

I mean I don't think anyone is advocating for taking players solely based on points and not factoring in age, position, league difficulity etc. and while NHLe produces decent results in general there are many flaws with it. Besides the fact that it doesn't take into consideration any other metric besides point production, players that have more points were generally given bigger opportunities with their team so they have less limiting factors as to reasons why they wouldn't succeed but they are not necessarily the best players. They are also more likely to be given more opportunities later in their career like a Drouin but at every level and to varying degrees. If they started tracking TOI in every league I could maybe see its usefulness if it sorted by points per 60 and created separate categories for EV, PP, and SH.

The CSB is a lot more useful and honestly probably does draft better than most NHL teams aside from like Carolina, Minnesota, and the Stars but its still not perfect.

 

[Felonious Python]

I mean I don't think anyone is advocating for taking players solely based on points and not factoring in age, position, league difficulity etc. and while NHLe produces decent results in general there are many flaws with it. Besides the fact that it doesn't take into consideration any other metric besides point production, players that have more points were generally given bigger opportunities with their team so they have less limiting factors as to reasons why they wouldn't succeed but they are not necessarily the best players. They are also more likely to be given more opportunities later in their career like a Drouin but at every level and to varying degrees. If they started tracking TOI in every league I could maybe see its usefulness if it sorted by points per 60 and created separate categories for EV, PP, and SH.

The CSB is a lot more useful and honestly probably does draft better than most NHL teams aside from like Carolina, Minnesota, and the Stars but its still not perfect.

Yeah, just so there isn't any misunderstanding, I'm not knocking NHL teams having large scouting departments, it's just that retrospective analysis of unconventional methods of drafting are interesting.

CSB apparently has 29 scouts who watch 3000 games a year. There are plenty of lists from independent scouting services, or media. If the strategy is really to pick the best player available, and random internet users can do half way decent mock drafts, is there a chance of overcomplicating the actual draft?

I took a quick look at the 2011 final rankings, and CSB had Johnny Gaudreau and Blake Coleman ranked relatively low, which they both went in the actual draft (rounds 3-4). Teams aren't willing to go way off the board with picks, but should they?

 

[LordStanlersCup]

Yeah, just so there isn't any misunderstanding, I'm not knocking NHL teams having large scouting departments, it's just that retrospective analysis of unconventional methods of drafting are interesting.

CSB apparently has 29 scouts who watch 3000 games a year. There are plenty of lists from independent scouting services, or media. If the strategy is really to pick the best player available, and random internet users can do half way decent mock drafts, is there a chance of overcomplicating the actual draft?

I took a quick look at the 2011 final rankings, and CSB had Johnny Gaudreau and Blake Coleman ranked relatively low, which they both went in the actual draft (rounds 3-4). Teams aren't willing to go way off the board with picks, but should they?

I definitely think scouting staffs either overcomplicate things or just simply don't pick the right archetype of prospects. I don't really understand the point of drafting players with low ceiling but high probibility of becoming an NHLer, it seems like those are the type of players that most teams just end up getting through free agency anyway. For CSB I think it has gotten better especially since more games are being broadcasted and in better camera quality over the years so their more recent stuff is probably more accurate. I really like EPrinkside's lists.