Speculation: 2024-2025 General Discussion III

[creg]

Geekie, Howard, Groshev....and you got rid of a third of TB forwards. What is going on here.

Geekie has 3 points in 6 games with Syracuse and is far from being guaranteed a regular role in the NHL later this season. He wasn't effective at all as the season wore on. What makes people think he'll be playing regularly when the stakes are even higher and the games are more difficult?

Howard may get a look later in the season, but penciling him into the top 9 with no NHL games under his belt...he would have to be exceptional to earn that. Seems highly unlikely.

Groshev isn't even a top 10 player in Syracuse.

This is for next season. I'm just filling in the blanks with players who are on contract and positions fit within the roster (to see how the money would have to fall), not trying to actually build out what the specifics of it would look like - which is why players like Goncalves, Eyssimont aren't here despite the fact that they'll probably be resigned.

Dowd was the exception because it seems pretty unlikely we'll run back another year of Glendenning.

The long story short of it is if we sign Rantanen, we'll basically be in the same position that we are in this year next year - an even more elite top 6 with a bottom 6 comprised of elc's and league minimum players.

 

[Peacefool]

I had to triple check just to make sure that no one here was actually suggesting we trade Hagel for Rantanen. I wouldn’t trade Hagel straight up for anyone else in this league.

only for McDavid and 1st round from EDM...and a good prospect

 

[bov]

This is for next season. I'm just filling in the blanks with players who are on contract and positions fit within the roster (to see how the money would have to fall), not trying to actually build out what the specifics of it would look like - which is why players like Goncalves, Eyssimont aren't here despite the fact that they'll probably be resigned.

Dowd was the exception because it seems pretty unlikely we'll run back another year of Glendenning.

The long story short of it is if we sign Rantanen, we'll basically be in the same position that we are in this year next year - an even more elite top 6 with a bottom 6 comprised of elc's and league minimum players.

I see. 11 mil seems optimistic, didn't he turn down substantially more from Colorado? I guess if he underwhelms in Carolina it's possible.

Rantanen is a hell of a player but I worry a bit about him getting his bag and tailing off as years go on. Won his cup already. I haven't heard "bad" things about him but there has been the odd public comment that indirectly questions him a bit.

 

[JTBF81]

Rantanen isn't signing for 11 in Tampa or anywhere more than likely. Tampa would only be able to offer him 7 years if signing him in the offseason, and Carolina has already reportedly offered him close to 12.5 a year and been refused, allegedly. Tampa isn't likely to rely that heavily on prospects/rookies throughout the lineup either. There's also no chance they are running a 20 player line up like I've seen Gere and elsewhere. They will have plenty of space next season to address a couple of middle 6 F spots, whether with players acquired at the deadline, in ufa, rookies, or a combination of the three, as well as potentially shoring up the 3rd pairing on defense and backup G. Spending g it all on Rantanen may give them the best top 6, sure; but, it leaves them much weaker again in the bottom 6 and maybe a couple of other spots.

 

[Rschmitz]

only for McDavid and 1st round from EDM...and a good prospect

Yeah some team could throw an insane package together but 1 for 1 his contract is just so lopsided. I think us Lightning fans know it’s a good deal but I don’t think we’ve really woken up to just how good of a deal it is, with that one move we’ve significantly opened our competitive window open

 

[Rschmitz]

Rantanen isn't signing for 11 in Tampa or anywhere more than likely. Tampa would only be able to offer him 7 years if signing him in the offseason, and Carolina has already reportedly offered him close to 12.5 a year and been refused, allegedly. Tampa isn't likely to rely that heavily on prospects/rookies throughout the lineup either. There's also no chance they are running a 20 player line up like I've seen Gere and elsewhere. They will have plenty of space next season to address a couple of middle 6 F spots, whether with players acquired at the deadline, in ufa, rookies, or a combination of the three, as well as potentially shoring up the 3rd pairing on defense and backup G. Spending g it all on Rantanen may give them the best top 6, sure; but, it leaves them much weaker again in the bottom 6 and maybe a couple of other spots.

We would have a better bottom 6 than this year, with Paul a main stay, a more mature Geekie, Howard, etc.

We would definitely lose our opportunity to rebuild our bottom 6 with significant offseason pick ups, but the cap goes up again after next year and we will have our opportunity to add more then. It’s a risk I am definitely willing to take, you don’t see guys like Rantanen available, ever, bottom 6 guys you can always find.

Agreed 11m is very optimistic though, even with our tax advantage.

 

[Rschmitz]

Before any Debbie downers come in, yes this is a pipe dream, but it’s worth entertaining since it could happen. We’ve shown time and time again we can find gems on the lower lines, I think it’s silly to want to throw away the opportunity on the merit of depth which can be found easily without paying tons for it.

 

[AlwaysSunnyInTampa]

The mistake you're making is in assuming it took the 2020 roster to win. It took that roster to bulldoze, especially after we changed the system. Suddenly we had star players willing to play like grinders. Guess who's doing that now? The Leafs. Because their old way of playing does not work in the playoffs. That was true for us too. It wasn't the personnel changes as much as it was the system changes. As much as we loved Gourde and Coleman, etc, they didn't score much in the playoffs.

You know who did the same thing once upon a time? Scott Bowman. He took an extremely talented Wings team and made them play a version of the trap. Because a much, much less talented team destroyed them in the playoffs the year before with a similar system.

We might suck at this system, but it's still our best chance. We don't have the personnelle to win on skill alone. Teams who win tend to know how to park the bus. Sometimes they're better at creating turnovers and pouncing, but it all starts the same way.

Well I don't want to cross that fine line into semantics because that's not really where I was trying to go. I don't necessarily think we need a Scotty Bowman as much as we need at least 3 or 4 new players regardless.

We can follow your suggestion to push guys like Hagel, Paul and Cirelli into 3rd line roles by adding another center and/or a Rantanen - I mean Guentzel was a pipe dream too once upon a time. Or we build a new shutdown line ala Coleman and Goodrow wirh Gourde and roll with the scorers we have now.

I'm not gonna lose my mind if we don't win the Cup this year but we aren't going to without better sandpaper

 

[JTBF81]

We would have a better bottom 6 than this year, with Paul a main stay, a more mature Geekie, Howard, etc.

We would definitely lose our opportunity to rebuild our bottom 6 with significant offseason pick ups, but the cap goes up again after next year and we will have our opportunity to add more then. It’s a risk I am definitely willing to take, you don’t see guys like Rantanen available, ever, bottom 6 guys you can always find.

Agreed 11m is very optimistic though, even with our tax advantage.

Again, I'd rather allocate all of that cap into several adds rather than potentially lose another year of this core's window if the rookies and bargain basement adds fail to be as impactful as most hope they'll be (myself included). Putting everything on one addition doesn't seem the best use of resources this offseason.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Messed around with how fitting Rantanen would look like and while I still thing they'd be better served using the cap space to add depth throughout the roster it could be done assuming you can convince him to sign like 8x11?

View attachment 980801

This would be running a 20 man roster though, which seems unlikely so more realistically you'd probably replace Dowd with a plug or the corpse of Glendenning and then keep Gage or something.

I think a part of this that hasn't been talked about though is how bad it would look on Canes management if they went all in on a Star player only to lose them to Tampa 2 years straight, so among the many reasons why I think this wouldn't make a ton of sense for Tampa I also think Canes would want to avoid this outcome.

If you think our bottom 6 six sucks now, you're in for treat with this one.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

I'm with @JTBF81 on this one. Id much rather see multiple adds to round out the line up than become stupidly top heavy. Top 6 scoring isn't our issue right now or for the foreseeable future, it's depth scoring and an immediate issue with McDonagh and bottom pairing defenseman. Going all in on someone like Rantanen is a tough sell for me.

 

[Rschmitz]

Again, I'd rather allocate all of that cap into several adds rather than potentially lose another year of this core's window if the rookies and bargain basement adds fail to be as impactful as most hope they'll be (myself included). Putting everything on one addition doesn't seem the best use of resources this offseason.

I'm with @JTBF81 on this one. Id much rather see multiple adds to round out the line up than become stupidly top heavy. Top 6 scoring isn't our issue right now or for the foreseeable future, it's depth scoring and an immediate issue with McDonagh and bottom pairing defenseman. Going all in on someone like Rantanen is a tough sell for me.

Welp we disagree. I mean, this is ambiguous, it really depends on the adds and who we consider good bottom 6 additions, and it's not like they are guaranteed to work out either. Who did you have in mind? I don't see many third line guys in free agency that are going to make me think that is a better option than a top 3 RW in the game.

Even if we don't get Rantanen, I think we can all agree that we still need a 2nd line RW. A 25g 60p player.

Rantanen is a 40g 100 point player, and pushes Paul down to the third line. Maybe pushes Guentzel to the 2nd line. I'm willing to bet we can find five bottom 6 guys who do a good enough job to easily out produce the other option, getting a 2nd line RW and a couple of other decent adds. I can be convinced otherwise, I just think ya'll are chasing the idea of "depth", when it's really not that hard to accomplish for cheap.

 

[creg]

I'm definitely of the opinion that multiple pieces with term*** are better than a single Rantanen. Hagel/Cirelli have proven that hey can contribute with anybody, get them a solid player at 5v5 and that line will be great.

I do think though, that looking at this free agent class, if we aren't filling our roster through trades I'd much rather swing for the top agents because outside of the top ufa's this group is pretty horrid.

 

[Felonious Python]

I'm with @JTBF81 on this one. Id much rather see multiple adds to round out the line up than become stupidly top heavy. Top 6 scoring isn't our issue right now or for the foreseeable future, it's depth scoring and an immediate issue with McDonagh and bottom pairing defenseman. Going all in on someone like Rantanen is a tough sell for me.

It's theoretically harder to get that top six player, but we need him at the right price so we can also get the good bottom six.

 

[Zwui21]

The need of a 2RW is glaring. With Moser back, that's the biggest hole in our roster.
Obviously Rantanen is a pipe dream and it's not happening, but we need to add a true 2RW to our lineup. And by that I mean an impactful player, not a 3rd liner that we can eventually slot on the 2nd line.
In the offseason, use 6-7M towards that, use the rest for the bottom six and a 3LD.

 

[JTBF81]

It's theoretically harder to get that top six player, but we need him at the right price so we can also get the good bottom six.

Agreed, but Rantanen isn't that player. There's no way he's going to cut Tampa some sweetheart deal out of the kindness of his heart so that Tampa can have the space to add at a few other positions. Even with a small discount, I'd guess Tampa would still have to pay 13-13.5 aav on a 7 year deal to get him. It's just not feasible.

 

[Rschmitz]

Rantanen and the other big ticket free agents probably do not even make it to UFA and we'll end up having to piecemeal together lesser players anyways just by default

 

[JTBF81]

The need of a 2RW is glaring. With Moser back, that's the biggest hole in our roster.
Obviously Rantanen is a pipe dream and it's not happening, but we need to add a true 2RW to our lineup. And by that I mean an impactful player, not a 3rd liner that we can eventually slot on the 2nd line.
In the offseason, use 6-7M towards that, use the rest for the bottom six and a 3LD.

I'm still on the Bjorkstrand train for 2RW. He fits well for Tampa and has another year on his deal. If Tampa can get Seattle to retain down to.2.7, all the better, but any retention would be of some.help. Worst case, Tampa acquires him at full price and pays a little less. They could still, in theory, add an additional bottom 6 F as long as some salary went the other way amd/or there was retention.

 

[Webster]

Players at 4 Nations were not practicing today. Ylonen sent back down, could go 11F and 7D tomorrow. Goalie Tomkins called up as backup.

 

[Rschmitz]

Agreed, but Rantanen isn't that player. There's no way he's going to cut Tampa some sweetheart deal out of the kindness of his heart so that Tampa can have the space to add at a few other positions. Even with a small discount, I'd guess Tampa would still have to pay 13-13.5 aav on a 7 year deal to get him. It's just not feasible.

13.5 AAV is the highest in the league, and you see that as some kind of discount? I'm sure it's possible that is what he's looking for though, might be why Colorado traded him considering Mackinnon makes 12.6.

 

[JTBF81]

13.5 AAV is the highest in the league, and you see that as some kind of discount? I'm sure it's possible that is what he's looking for though, might be why Colorado traded him considering Mackinnon makes 12.6.

Cap is going up, and so yes, contracts in the 13+ range will not be surprising. He's going to get 90-100 million.at mon wherever he goes, so if he hits ufa, any team acquiring him better be willing to pay in that range over 7 years. He's nit the right add for Tampa at this point. The core is set and is more than good enough to win. They need to add the right supporting pieces now to get them over the top.

 

[Rschmitz]

Lightning have more than 6m in cap space if they wait until the trade deadline to make a move, retention shouldn't be an issue come TDL if it's just for one piece.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Welp we disagree. I mean, this is ambiguous, it really depends on the adds and who we consider good bottom 6 additions, and it's not like they are guaranteed to work out either. Who did you have in mind? I don't see many third line guys in free agency that are going to make me think that is a better option than a top 3 RW in the game.

Even if we don't get Rantanen, I think we can all agree that we still need a 2nd line RW. A 25g 60p player.

Rantanen is a 40g 100 point player, and pushes Paul down to the third line. Maybe pushes Guentzel to the 2nd line. I'm willing to bet we can find five bottom 6 guys who do a good enough job to easily out produce the other option, getting a 2nd line RW and a couple of other decent adds. I can be convinced otherwise, I just think ya'll are chasing the idea of "depth", when it's really not that hard to accomplish for cheap.

I've been barking up the Bjorkstrand tree. Obviously Tuch is the perfect choice, but who knows what Buffalo is doing. McCann is another option. Tolvanen is a 2nd/3rd line choice. The cost of obtaining Rantanen + the cost of retaining him? I'm honestly baffled at how anyone thinks it's a good idea. If we are willing to spend that much to just obtain Rantanen, spend that to obtain Tuch.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

13.5 AAV is the highest in the league, and you see that as some kind of discount? I'm sure it's possible that is what he's looking for though, might be why Colorado traded him considering Mackinnon makes 12.6.

13.5 x 7 years = $94.5M
12.5 x 8 years = $100M

If anything, at 13.5M he's taking a discount.

 

[Rschmitz]

13.5 x 7 years = $94.5M
12.5 x 8 years = $100M

If anything, at 13.5M he's taking a discount.

I'm sure there are teams out there that would pay him whatever he wanted though if that is all he was interested in.