Speculation: 2024-2025 General Discussion III: 4 nations, 4th line scoring

[Sky04]

They're fine, Bjorkstrand is probably the best of the players who are available for trade. I wouldn't get into a bidding war to make the trade work is what I mean, if Seattle wants a kings random you move on to the Isles, if there is an insane ask for Palmeri you move on to someone else. An ideal fit you can overpay for, like Tuch etc. who have cost certainty...size...etc.

Yeah agreed.

 

[bov]

When you spend 4 good years blowing 3 to 5 assets for 1 player per trade, you eventually end up needing like 4 more players. Blowing a bunch of assets for some 30 year old likely isn't keeping our window open nor is it going to be getting us over the hump. We're gonna be right back in the same spot in 2 years. At some point JFBB needs to consider biting the bullet and sending for a Cernak or Cirelli out for quality replacements like we did with Sergachev. We use the cap space for someone who is actually going to be effective as a free agent or just as a roster player we traded for

TB has some really nice prospects in the system and pretty much a full set of picks going forward. I agree that Cernak should eventually be looked at as a trade option, not so much a fan of moving Cirelli. BriseBois knows how to recoup assets and I think he has shown an ability to re-stock the cupboards on the fly, between adding the odd draft pick, international/FA prospect signings like Lilleberg, and trades. I don't worry at all about being stuck after our current "competitive window".

 

[Stammertime91]

They're fine, Bjorkstrand is probably the best of the players who are available for trade. I wouldn't get into a bidding war to make the trade work is what I mean, if Seattle wants a kings random you move on to the Isles, if there is an insane ask for Palmeri you move on to someone else. An ideal fit you can overpay for, like Tuch etc. who have cost certainty...size...etc.

@JoVel thoughts on us possibly acquiring another Buffalo player?

 

[JoVel]

@JoVel thoughts on us possibly acquiring another Buffalo player?

I like Tuch. I think he's one of their very few players who hasn't been infected with the loser bug in that organization.

 

[JTBF81]

When you spend 4 good years blowing 3 to 5 assets for 1 player per trade, you eventually end up needing like 4 more players. Blowing a bunch of assets for some 30 year old likely isn't keeping our window open nor is it going to be getting us over the hump. We're gonna be right back in the same spot in 2 years. At some point JFBB needs to consider biting the bullet and sending for a Cernak or Cirelli out for quality replacements like we did with Sergachev. We use the cap space for someone who is actually going to be effective as a free agent or just as a roster player we traded for

You don't send out core guys at key positions when you don't have the depth behind them to do so. Tampa doesn't need another re-tool, as JBB already did that last off season. They have their core group set for at least the next 3 years, which is likely the end of their prime contention window anyway. JBB should be looking to find the pieces, both at the tdl and then in the summer with more cap space, to give this core group their best chance to win another Cup while these guys are in their prime. Removing more quality core pieces for more re-tools isn't the solution imo.

 

[JTBF81]

I don't see Buffalo moving Tuch unless they are getting a similar roster player in return, which Tampa doesn't have. They don't seem to want a package around primarily futures, so the fit doesn't seem to be there.

Based on other recent comps, I'm guessing Palmieri will cost a 2nd+4th or equivalent prospect. If a rental is JBB's desired route, he's a good option.

If he wants a more veteran player with term and is willing to pay more premium assets, players such as Bjorkstrand, McCann and Rakell stand out as those who may be available.

For younger guys who will still be expensive but may be available should JBB overpay, Zetterlund, Foerster, Cates, Cuylle, Evangelista could all be potential candidates.

Finally, if he's going to add a depth dman, the names I've seen most listed are Dumoulin, Ferraro, and lately Suter. Ferraro would likely be the best of the.bunch, but he's also the.most expensive. Maybe a package deal for him and Kunin where Tampa sends salary back and involves a 3rd.team for retention (since the Sharks have no retention spots left).

 

[Flat Ronnie]

What about raiding the Rangers cupboard again? They seem to be open to sell.

 

[AlwaysSunnyInTampa]

You don't send out core guys at key positions when you don't have the depth behind them to do so. Tampa doesn't need another re-tool, as JBB already did that last off season. They have their core group set for at least the next 3 years, which is likely the end of their prime contention window anyway. JBB should be looking to find the pieces, both at the tdl and then in the summer with more cap space, to give this core group their best chance to win another Cup while these guys are in their prime. Removing more quality core pieces for more re-tools isn't the solution imo.

We don't need another retool? We have lost Killorn, Palat, Johnson, Stamkos, Colton, the school bus, the Gourde line, Jeannot, Savard, Sergachev and God knows how much else in trades in to get those players and they're gone. Moser, Paul, Hagel, Guentzel and a rookie on offense does not offset the loss of all those players and a dozen other assets since 2022. Now combine this with what few remaining prospects we have. They are all unlikely ready to make the jump and play well or are just plain bad.

Call it consequences of doing business or the the flat cap screwing us. Po tay toe/puh tah toe. Teams are gonna lock down Kucherov in the playoffs and our whole damn offense is gonna shut down again.

If I can trade for Cernak's replacement in his own trade or construct an entire scoring line at the expense of Cirelli I'm gonna do it and then go shopping in free agency while I buy our prospects at least another year to develop.

 

[JTBF81]

We don't need another retool? We have lost Killorn, Palat, Johnson, Stamkos, Colton, the school bus, the Gourde line, Jeannot, Savard, Sergachev and God knows how much else in trades in to get those players and they're gone. Moser, Paul, Hagel, Guentzel and a rookie on offense does not offset the loss of all those players and a dozen other assets since 2022. Now combine this with what few remaining prospects we have. They are all unlikely ready to make the jump and play well or are just plain bad.

Call it consequences of doing business or the the flat cap screwing us. Po tay toe/puh tah toe. Teams are gonna lock down Kucherov in the playoffs and our whole damn offense is gonna shut down again.

If I can trade for Cernak's replacement in his own trade or construct an entire scoring line at the expense of Cirelli I'm gonna do it and then go shopping in free agency while I buy our prospects at least another year to develop.

Almost every player you listed has declined sharply and was drastically overpaid after leaving/being traded from Tampa. You aren't getting a better dman in a Cernak trade, as any team trading for Cernak would be deficient at RD most likely. You also aren't getting an entire new scoring line for Cirelli, only weakening the team greatly down the middle by replacing him with an inferior player and a couple of picls/prospects (aka magic beans) that may or may not work out (and 100% won't help the team in their current window).

JBB, with the exception of the Jeannot trade and moving Colton when he did, has pretty much been spot on when trading or letting older vets walk. The only reason he looked to trade Serg was because they still have Hedman, were clearly looking to add another LD via trade or ufa, and they needed the cap space to bring in Guentzel. They have zero need to move either Cernak or Cirelli, especially with the cap increasing and both having integral roles at key positions.

There has been no major re-tool before last summer, as moving an ancillary piece or two isn't disrupting the main core group. Letting Stamkos walk and trading Serg represents far more of an actual "re-tool", which in JBB's view was needed to give the team a jolt and improve the F group.

 

[AlwaysSunnyInTampa]

Almost every player you listed has declined sharply and was drastically overpaid after leaving/being traded from Tampa. You aren't getting a better dman in a Cernak trade, as any team trading for Cernak would be deficient at RD most likely. You also aren't getting an entire new scoring line for Cirelli, only weakening the team greatly down the middle by replacing him with an inferior player and a couple of picls/prospects (aka magic beans) that may or may not work out (and 100% won't help the team in their current window).

JBB, with the exception of the Jeannot trade and moving Colton when he did, has pretty much been spot on when trading or letting older vets walk. The only reason he looked to trade Serg was because they still have Hedman, were clearly looking to add another LD via trade or ufa, and they needed the cap space to bring in Guentzel. They have zero need to move either Cernak or Cirelli, especially with the cap increasing and both having integral roles at key positions.

There has been no major re-tool before last summer, as moving an ancillary piece or two isn't disrupting the main core group. Letting Stamkos walk and trading Serg represents far more of an actual "re-tool", which in JBB's view was needed to give the team a jolt and improve the F group.

The original point is more about the volume of talent and production we lost and not replacing it with anything similar. An entire 2nd line, an entire 4th line, 20 goal scorers and a Stamkos. It doesn't matter if those players are washed up. We made the right choices to move on and get the players we have now. But the likes of Paul, Hagel, Geekie and Guentzel are not the same volume and production we have lost. They are a great start but its like less than half of the recovery effort we need to be viable. The rest of our lineup is littered in over the hill vets and 26 year old rookies

I got no other ideas though man. We need like 5 or 6 quality players and the only way I've got to come into that many is to do what the Rays do and get some 3 for 1 trades. Except then we open the checkbook and spend on other players

I get not blowing your team up and trading your 2C while trying to win the Cup but shoot man. We arent winning anything like this. We need more. A lot more. I'm about yea close to done with Cernak

 

[Rschmitz]

Good News!

 

[creg]

The original point is more about the volume of talent and production we lost and not replacing it with anything similar. An entire 2nd line, an entire 4th line, 20 goal scorers and a Stamkos. It doesn't matter if those players are washed up. We made the right choices to move on and get the players we have now. But the likes of Paul, Hagel, Geekie and Guentzel are not the same volume and production we have lost. They are a great start but its like less than half of the recovery effort we need to be viable. The rest of our lineup is littered in over the hill vets and 26 year old rookies

I got no other ideas though man. We need like 5 or 6 quality players and the only way I've got to come into that many is to do what the Rays do and get some 3 for 1 trades. Except then we open the checkbook and spend on other players

I get not blowing your team up and trading your 2C while trying to win the Cup but shoot man. We arent winning anything like this. We need more. A lot more. I'm about yea close to done with Cernak

I might be way too optimistic, but I feel a lot more positively about this team's short term future. I feel like this team's needs aren't that long of a list, 2RW, 3RW, 3LW, & 3LD. All of these are traded in surplus at the deadline and aren't that expensive to acquire.

Even if we don't have the space to address all these (which is fair criticism) the cap is about to go up significantly, so it's probably a realistic expectation that we'll address as many as possible at the deadline (hopefully with term) and will fill the rest of the holes in the off-season. We also have the wild card of Isaac Howard, if he can be productive on his ELC we'll be in an even better position to round out the rest of the roster.

 

[JTBF81]

The original point is more about the volume of talent and production we lost and not replacing it with anything similar. An entire 2nd line, an entire 4th line, 20 goal scorers and a Stamkos. It doesn't matter if those players are washed up. We made the right choices to move on and get the players we have now. But the likes of Paul, Hagel, Geekie and Guentzel are not the same volume and production we have lost. They are a great start but its like less than half of the recovery effort we need to be viable. The rest of our lineup is littered in over the hill vets and 26 year old rookies

I got no other ideas though man. We need like 5 or 6 quality players and the only way I've got to come into that many is to do what the Rays do and get some 3 for 1 trades. Except then we open the checkbook and spend on other players

I get not blowing your team up and trading your 2C while trying to win the Cup but shoot man. We arent winning anything like this. We need more. A lot more. I'm about yea close to done with Cernak

We have 7 quality forwards already with Kuch. Point, Hagel, Guentzel, Cirelli, Paul and Geekie. Chaffee and Goncalves are also providing decent depth as of late. They also have Howard and Duke very close to providing more help in the middle 6. Adding a F like Bjorkstrand, Palmieri etc or a younger rfa to address 2RW, and a middle 6 F such as Kunin, Donato, Armia etc provides plenty of offensive talent to make a run.

Top 6 centers and top 4 dmen, especially RD, are the most coveted and hard to find positions of quality in the league (aside from maybe consistent quality netminding, which Tampa usually has covered). Unless you are giving up on the window and entering a rebuild, teams rarely move these pieces for lesser players/futures. The team has a top 2 offense, is 3rd in goal differential, top 5 in sv%, and a top 10 defense. While they should address F depth at the deadline, this team is certainly capable of winning a Cup.

The Rays model of doing things has failed to produce any titles, and they're headed in the wrong direction. They have a terrible owner, and I've never been a fan of Cash as a manager either. I would hope the Lightning don't start emulating the way they run things.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Tampa Bay Lightning Trade Deadline Target: Alex Tuch - The Hockey Writers Tampa Bay Lightning Latest News, Analysis & More

Tampa Bay acquires: Alex Tuch (F)


Buffalo acquires: 2026 first-round pick, 2027 second-round pick, Nick Perbix (D), Conor Sheary (F), Ethan Gauthier (F)

There is wishful thinking, then there is this guy with this kind of wishful thinking.

 

[AlwaysSunnyInTampa]

Tampa Bay Lightning Trade Deadline Target: Alex Tuch - The Hockey Writers Tampa Bay Lightning Latest News, Analysis & More


There is wishful thinking, then there is this guy with this kind of wishful thinking.

There's LOL's and then a wicker basket full of them

 

[Webster]

Why do people think they're looking for D? I'd say this looks pretty good...

Hedman-Moser
McDonagh-Cernak
Lilleberg-Raddysh

Then you have a couple of promising kids in the minors.
Perbix will most likely be traded or they'll just let him walk.

 

[Point21]

Why do people think they're looking for D? I'd say this looks pretty good...

Hedman-Moser
McDonagh-Cernak
Lilleberg-Raddysh

Then you have a couple of promising kids in the minors.
Perbix will most likely be traded or they'll just let him walk.

Much rather have some bottom pairing rental than Lilleberg for the playoffs.

 

[bov]

There's LOL's and then a wicker basket full of them

A 1st, 2nd, and a good prospect will usually land you a pretty damn good player. That offer is perfectly reasonable even if Buffalo would decline.

 

[AlwaysSunnyInTampa]

A 1st, 2nd, and a good prospect will usually land you a pretty damn good player. That offer is perfectly reasonable even if Buffalo would decline.

It would be if Perbix and Sheary weren't pieces coming back. You'd be doing us a favor with Sheary

 

[bov]

It would be if Perbix and Sheary weren't pieces coming back. You'd be doing us a favor with Sheary

Perbix and Sheary wouldn't be much of a holdup. Perb being a UFA, plus Buffalo has 0 RHD under contract next year so it could actually be worth a look for them. They have tons of cap space and worst case scenario you bury Sheary for a season, his aav wouldn't burden them at all in that case unless they spend like 30 mil to get to the ceiling. Those two being in the deal don't diminish the offer enough to make it a bad one.

Tuch's AAV is manageable but to do anything else, money needs to be moved out.

 

[DFC]

The original point is more about the volume of talent and production we lost and not replacing it with anything similar. An entire 2nd line, an entire 4th line, 20 goal scorers and a Stamkos. It doesn't matter if those players are washed up. We made the right choices to move on and get the players we have now. But the likes of Paul, Hagel, Geekie and Guentzel are not the same volume and production we have lost. They are a great start but its like less than half of the recovery effort we need to be viable. The rest of our lineup is littered in over the hill vets and 26 year old rookies

I got no other ideas though man. We need like 5 or 6 quality players and the only way I've got to come into that many is to do what the Rays do and get some 3 for 1 trades. Except then we open the checkbook and spend on other players

I get not blowing your team up and trading your 2C while trying to win the Cup but shoot man. We arent winning anything like this. We need more. A lot more. I'm about yea close to done with Cernak

Those teams weren't realistic. A lot of things had to align to get us that roster, and it's unlikely to ever happen again. We can't ever replace that much talent. No team can.

 

[JTBF81]

Tampa Bay Lightning Trade Deadline Target: Alex Tuch - The Hockey Writers Tampa Bay Lightning Latest News, Analysis & More


There is wishful thinking, then there is this guy with this kind of wishful thinking.

Lol, yeah, if that's all it was going to take to get Tuch, he'd already be in Tampa

 

[JTBF81]

I hope JBB can somehow pull off acquiring Tuch, but for the package listed above, the only way Buffalo would agree is if they had another trade lined up where they used the picks+Gauthier to quickly acquire another top 6 F. Perbix is a decent roster player to go back, but he's not going to really move the needle. Sheary has no value at all (likely slight negative value), and he has a m-ntc, which I'm sure includes Buffalo.

 

[Sky04]

Those teams weren't realistic. A lot of things had to align to get us that roster, and it's unlikely to ever happen again. We can't ever replace that much talent. No team can.

Yeah I don't know why we're listing players off 2021 team either, that team couldn't have been assembled in the RS anyways....... 9.5m over the cap. Savard? Jeannot? lmao give me those assets back.

 

[DFC]

Yeah I don't know why we're listing players off 2021 team either, that team couldn't have been assembled in the RS anyways....... 9.5m over the cap. Savard? Jeannot? lmao give me those assets back.

Yeah. And I mean, we had to pay big assets to get Goodrow and Coleman, and they just happened to be on the perfect contracts to make it happen. Gourde was still cheap. Palat was a 7th rounder who turned into one of the biggest impact players in franchise history. Killorn, it turned out surprisingly, was signed under value. Hedman was peaking.

The stars really aligned for those teams in a way that's pretty rare. But we were above and beyond the bar for "Stanley Cup Champion roster."

I think the hope now has to be to be a contender and hope a few things break our way. If we are only satisfied by 2020 level rosters, well, it's gonna be a long life.