stl76
No. 5 in your programs, No. 1 in your hearts
- Jul 2, 2015
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I’m not saying we should try to acquire Pettersson, but usage matters and analyzing team based shooting metrics.
2024-2025 Blues Trade Proposals Thread.
- Thread starter simon IC
- Start date
ChicagoBlues
Terraformers
- Oct 24, 2006
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My position since the EP discussion started here is a resounding NO.
The contract is awful, but he’s also soft.
The contract is awful, but he’s also soft.
StlBigFly
Registered User
- Mar 29, 2012
- 310
- 153
This is not my site of course but this is my guess for Petterson:
To Columbus
www.nhltraderumors.me
It’s by far the best fit imo:
They have the hole due to the unfortunate passing of Jg
They have a cap floor emergency and literally need the contact.
They have the assets
Ohio isn’t the best market but it isn’t the worst. People can have their opinions, but from a tax and pro athlete standpoint it gets worse than Ohio. Ohio may even become a no tax state as political stuff does what it does. From Peterssons financial perspective this is an improvement from Vancouver where he pays a much higher tax rate. He would be incentivized to participate in this deal because he would get paid.
Best win win win solution.
Vancouver gets legitimate assets
Columbus gets the cap floor and fills an enormous roster hole
Petterson gets a raise, gets to be “the guy” for better or worse
Vancouver may even have to retain which is an absolutely wild prediction to make. The tax situation has splintered how the league handles compensation and we have very few large contracts move from Canada to us, especially since we’re in the phase of change, the prescedent could be established on this deal for a new era of intra country deals. Perhaps 4% retention or something weird like that. Yes it would take a slot but these contracts are being valued differently. They could decide a small retention is the fix, expand retention slots, idk. Sometimes it’s better to solve your own problem, even if it isn’t the perfect solution, than let somebody else solve it in a way you don’t like.
It’s super rare for a deal like this to occur anyway - I can’t think I can confidently can guess the deal but here:
Petterson + one of the defenseman for Provorov, a high A prospect or young skater, and whatever needed to equalize value which could be a lot or a little, it is unclear who has the leverage.
Vancouver slightly overpays Provorov to convince him to sign and bolsters their weakest spot on the depth chart. They also get one top shelf prospect or young skater. They would desire control yeah? And that would be the meat of the deal. This obviously makes a hole for Vancouver which I would guess is somehow filled in the process. Maybe Provorov and a center idk. Fantilli seems untouchable. Would blow my mind if he moved, but that’s what Vancouver should ask for.
To Columbus
Blue Jackets Rumors: Columbus Linked To Canucks' Elias Pettersson
The Columbus Blue Jackets have been linked to Vancouver Canucks center Elias Pettersson, according to Aaron Portzline of The Athletic . Rep...
It’s by far the best fit imo:
They have the hole due to the unfortunate passing of Jg
They have a cap floor emergency and literally need the contact.
They have the assets
Ohio isn’t the best market but it isn’t the worst. People can have their opinions, but from a tax and pro athlete standpoint it gets worse than Ohio. Ohio may even become a no tax state as political stuff does what it does. From Peterssons financial perspective this is an improvement from Vancouver where he pays a much higher tax rate. He would be incentivized to participate in this deal because he would get paid.
Best win win win solution.
Vancouver gets legitimate assets
Columbus gets the cap floor and fills an enormous roster hole
Petterson gets a raise, gets to be “the guy” for better or worse
Vancouver may even have to retain which is an absolutely wild prediction to make. The tax situation has splintered how the league handles compensation and we have very few large contracts move from Canada to us, especially since we’re in the phase of change, the prescedent could be established on this deal for a new era of intra country deals. Perhaps 4% retention or something weird like that. Yes it would take a slot but these contracts are being valued differently. They could decide a small retention is the fix, expand retention slots, idk. Sometimes it’s better to solve your own problem, even if it isn’t the perfect solution, than let somebody else solve it in a way you don’t like.
It’s super rare for a deal like this to occur anyway - I can’t think I can confidently can guess the deal but here:
Petterson + one of the defenseman for Provorov, a high A prospect or young skater, and whatever needed to equalize value which could be a lot or a little, it is unclear who has the leverage.
Vancouver slightly overpays Provorov to convince him to sign and bolsters their weakest spot on the depth chart. They also get one top shelf prospect or young skater. They would desire control yeah? And that would be the meat of the deal. This obviously makes a hole for Vancouver which I would guess is somehow filled in the process. Maybe Provorov and a center idk. Fantilli seems untouchable. Would blow my mind if he moved, but that’s what Vancouver should ask for.
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This would be a great pickup for Columbus. If I were them I would even consider adding Cayden Lindstrom to the package for him. They are loaded with assets. Luca Bell Bulz is doing well since his call up and was leading the AHL in scoring as a 21 year old. They are forward prospect heavy and could probably move a forward off their roster to make room. I would also think Olivier would be of interest for Vancouver as well.This is not my site of course but this is my guess for Petterson:
To Columbus
Blue Jackets Rumors: Columbus Linked To Canucks' Elias Pettersson
The Columbus Blue Jackets have been linked to Vancouver Canucks center Elias Pettersson, according to Aaron Portzline of The Athletic . Rep...
It’s by far the best fit imo:
They have the hole due to the unfortunate passing of Jg
They have a cap floor emergency and literally need the contact.
They have the assets
Ohio isn’t the best market but it isn’t the worst. People can have their opinions, but from a tax and pro athlete standpoint it gets worse than Ohio. Ohio may even become a no tax state as political stuff does what it does. From Peterssons financial perspective this is an improvement from Vancouver where he pays a much higher tax rate. He would be incentivized to participate in this deal because he would get paid.
Best win win win solution.
Vancouver gets legitimate assets
Columbus gets the cap floor and fills an enormous roster hole
Petterson gets a raise
Neighbors, Buchy, Faulk, Schenn, Bolduc, Walker, Toropchenko, Suter, Joseph, Tucker
Less than half, I don't think we should call someone else soft and list that as a reason to not want him.
ChicagoBlues
Terraformers
- Oct 24, 2006
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Brian39
Registered User
- Apr 24, 2014
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I agree that Columbus could be a decent fit, but that article drove me absolutely insane. The premise of the article is that the Blue Jackets have been linked to a Pettersson trade. The support for that notion is quoting another writer who said there is "internet buzz" suggesting trade discussions with an outright denial from a team source. This is just passing off fan speculation as a legitimate rumor.This is not my site of course but this is my guess for Petterson:
To Columbus
Blue Jackets Rumors: Columbus Linked To Canucks' Elias Pettersson
The Columbus Blue Jackets have been linked to Vancouver Canucks center Elias Pettersson, according to Aaron Portzline of The Athletic . Rep...
It’s by far the best fit imo:
They have the hole due to the unfortunate passing of Jg
They have a cap floor emergency and literally need the contact.
They have the assets
Ohio isn’t the best market but it isn’t the worst. People can have their opinions, but from a tax and pro athlete standpoint it gets worse than Ohio. Ohio may even become a no tax state as political stuff does what it does. From Peterssons financial perspective this is an improvement from Vancouver where he pays a much higher tax rate. He would be incentivized to participate in this deal because he would get paid.
Best win win win solution.
Vancouver gets legitimate assets
Columbus gets the cap floor and fills an enormous roster hole
Petterson gets a raise, gets to be “the guy” for better or worse
Vancouver may even have to retain which is an absolutely wild prediction to make. The tax situation has splintered how the league handles compensation and we have very few large contracts move from Canada to us, especially since we’re in the phase of change, the prescedent could be established on this deal for a new era of intra country deals. Perhaps 4% retention or something weird like that. Yes it would take a slot but these contracts are being valued differently. They could decide a small retention is the fix, expand retention slots, idk. Sometimes it’s better to solve your own problem, even if it isn’t the perfect solution, than let somebody else solve it in a way you don’t like.
It’s super rare for a deal like this to occur anyway - I can’t think I can confidently can guess the deal but here:
Petterson + one of the defenseman for Provorov, a high A prospect or young skater, and whatever needed to equalize value which could be a lot or a little, it is unclear who has the leverage.
Vancouver slightly overpays Provorov to convince him to sign and bolsters their weakest spot on the depth chart. They also get one top shelf prospect or young skater. They would desire control yeah? And that would be the meat of the deal. This obviously makes a hole for Vancouver which I would guess is somehow filled in the process. Maybe Provorov and a center idk.
As for the analysis, I don't think Columbus is a great fit.
There is no such thing as a cap floor emergency. Getting yourself to the cap floor is the easiest thing to do in the NHL. There is always an opportunity to pick up enough dead/bad short term cap to reach the floor. Always. And in a bizzaro world where 31 teams refuse to give you a bad contract for nothing, you can literally sign a random guy to a 1 year deal at the exact AAV you need to reach the floor. "This will get us to the floor" is simply not a meaningful reason to take on a long-term deal. They have the flexibility to take on his contract with no/little issue, but that has nothing to do with reaching the floor.
Long term, I do like a Petey/Fantilli 1-2 punch down the middle with Petey/Monahan being the 1-2 punch until Fantilli is ready to truly seize that role. I do wonder how expensive Fantilli will be when he comes off his ELC. A bridge through Monahan's contract could keep costs down, but if he explodes next season it could get very complicated if he wants a long-term deal while Petey and Monahan combine for $17M against the cap. Not a bad problem to have and not insurmountable. But depending on how many guys are due raises by 2027 it could create a bit of a bind. They are better positioned than damn-near everyone to take on big money, but their short-term freedom still has to be weighed against long-term realities.
But I think the biggest issue is that Provorov and a really good prospect doesn't make much sense for Vancouver. Even if Vancouver could convince Provorov to sign an extension, they would very much have to pay the UFA market-rate to keep him. Other than trash bags of cash, I'm not sure what incentive Provorov would have to pass up the UFA market this summer to sign as the #3 D man in Vancouver (especially with all the baggage that comes with being the return for Petey). i just don't think Vancouver has much incentive to make a soon-to-be UFA one of the main pieces of any Petey trade.
For a Vancouver/Columbus deal to work, I think that Vancouver would need to be a bit more honest with themselves about what their organization is if they trade Petey (or Miller). I think it would need to come after they have fully explored the 'hockey' trades designed to keep them contending now and decide to accept more of a futures package designed to be a '1 step back to take 2 steps forward' type of move.
ChicagoBlues
Terraformers
- Oct 24, 2006
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I don't understand why Vancouver would want to trade away EP while Boeser becomes an UFA after this season.
What am I missing?
EP signed a huge contract with a NMC in March, 2024. And now they are open to trading him? Clearly, I am missing something.
What am I missing?
EP signed a huge contract with a NMC in March, 2024. And now they are open to trading him? Clearly, I am missing something.
StlBigFly
Registered User
- Mar 29, 2012
- 310
- 153
My personal guesses in order of like..how much I believe they could be the reason.
1. The owner or some decision makers just like (or create) drama up there. This doesn’t seem super abnormal for them.
2. They really don’t like what they see in Petterson and this is their window to pull the ejection handle.
3. It isn’t about Petterson at all and he isn’t going anywhere, it’s about Miller, but they can’t say it that way maybe.
4. They’ve already received an offer that makes them want to do something because for whatever reason they view it as a green light and because of that there’s a frenzy as others try to get deals in front of them. I don’t think you’d move an asset like Petterson to a market of one. You’d have suitors and agents or teams may leak things to get outcomes they want
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ChicagoBlues
Terraformers
- Oct 24, 2006
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#3 is where I’ve been this whole time. EP is going nowhere, but perhaps his current value has been somewhat clarified.
It could be just a “feelers” thing to assess the market.
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Brian39
Registered User
- Apr 24, 2014
- 7,701
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Buyer's remorse is a real thing.
Have you ever heard the expression that the best 2 days of a boat owner's life are the day he buys it and the day he sells it? The boat is a ton of fun, but holy hell is it a lot of work/money/headache. There are things in life that don't live up to your expectations and sometimes the reality is different enough that you reassess a year later. I don't think that they end up trading him, but the reason would be that they have buyer's remorse. And unlike the boat owner who can sell whenever it gets to be too much of a headache, the NMC which kicks in 7/1/25 makes it either impossible or extremely difficult to move him.
The reality since signing Petey has objectively not aligned with their expectations when they gave him the contract.
He had 75 points in 62 games at the time he signed the deal and scored 102 points in 80 games in the previous season. All told in the 2 years leading up to the contract (3/3/22 through 3/2/24), he had 207 points in 167 games. That is a pretty damn large sample saying 'this is a 95+ point center.'
Since the signing, he scored 14 points in 20 games to close the 2023/24 season, had 6 points in 13 playoff games, and has 29 points in 36 games to start this season. The total sample is much smaller than the 2 year sample leading up to the contract and there isn't a single continuous sample as long as the 2022/23 season or the 62 games of the 2023/24 season pre-contract. But it is a 56 total game regular season sample and 69 total games. That's more than a blip and the production has been substantially less than their expectations.
When they signed the contract, the team was winning a lot, which has a way of fixing any animosity/friction between teammates who don't get along. Since the contract signing, the team has been winning less and this season is bordering on disaster.
Since signing the contract, there is plenty of new data that could have convinced them that it was a mistake and that they need to move him before 7/1/25 when they become locked in. There is also a very real chance that Petey is struggling to deal with the pressures of signing a massive contract and will eventually return to the player they thought they were getting. I don't know the answer and if I were them I would be extremely hesitant to trade him unless I got a great offer.
But it's not like the rumors are coming out of nowhere or without context. He hasn't been the guy they thought they were signing and there is (reportedly) major friction between him and the team's other elite forward. That changes things.
StlBigFly
Registered User
- Mar 29, 2012
- 310
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That site is something else. I’ve always wanted to build an aggregator for this subject but have it be much more transparent about what was reported by somebody like Friedman and what was pure cap based speculation from a fan. I’m too lazy but I’d probably have it built in a week if I cared enough.
I wanted to reply about the floor just to clarify:
It’s not an emergency in the sense of making it or not.
It’s the trade off taken.
Let’s say one path ends with paying somebody very one dimensional who can’t find a job to a deal that gives him a small chunk of good icetime and a big bag.
Another path ends with paying an extra first to do a deal and improve the team.
The total cost of the better option is not just a first, it’s also avoiding the downside that will be likely if they’re forced to their last resorts. Maybe what they can choose from is a crappy person or maybe uncoachable, maybe previous injuries cause severe limitations, maybe they’re taking icetime from high pedigree guy.
That’s the emergency. If they don’t find a better option they are possibly taking a worst possible outcome.
ChicagoBlues
Terraformers
- Oct 24, 2006
- 16,861
- 7,485
Goalies count as members of the team and so do the players in the press box every night.
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