Im not trading JK alone for Brady let alone adding to him
2024-2025 Blues Trade Proposals Thread.
- Thread starter simon IC
- Start date
After last season it really seemed like Neighbours was going to be that guy. I wonder why he has been so timid to do so this season when he was so successful at being that guy last season.
Here's a list of forwards who fit the following criteria:
There are some bargain bin guys there that would be worth taking a swing on this offseason. It's also a who's who of top young forwards from around the league. You'll also probably notice: no Blues are on that list. Holloway meets all of the criteria except #5, but he's the only one. Anyways, if we're looking to add at forward, that's the shopping list.
- Played at least 10 games this regular season
- Have a positive HDGF/60 Rel and a negative HDGA/60 Rel (i.e. high danger goals happen more when they're on the ice, and they are prevented when they are on the ice)
- Started less than 55% of their shifts in the offensive zone (i.e. they haven't been crazily sheltered)
- Are 28 or younger
- Are listed as either RW or C
There are some bargain bin guys there that would be worth taking a swing on this offseason. It's also a who's who of top young forwards from around the league. You'll also probably notice: no Blues are on that list. Holloway meets all of the criteria except #5, but he's the only one. Anyways, if we're looking to add at forward, that's the shopping list.
Brian39
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- Apr 24, 2014
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I'm guessing that he wanted to burn an ELC year at the end of this season and Vancouver wanted him to do an ATO to play in the AHL playoffs to avoid burning an ELC year. But yes, it could also be about bonuses and it could also be about not wanting to play in Vancouver.
I don't care what the issue is. I want the Blues to try to acquire him and then give him the thing he wants.
I ponder who costs more, Zegras or Larkin, Brady Tkachuk or Marner
Imma guess Zegras costs more than Larkin, although I could argue the other side of that argument too. Feels like Larkin would be pricey but if Detroit moves him they’re kinda looking to the future and may get more unproven assets in return. I think Anahiem will be able to get more nhl talent if they move Zegras.
And imma guess Brady would cost more than Marner, but I don’t think anybody besides Toronto will get Marner for free - they’ve had the time to plan and I’d be willing to bet they’ll work out a sign and trade prior to july1
If I had to order these guys in terms of if I’d want to trade for them my list would be:
1. Marner - legit top 10 talent in prime aged years who probably isn’t super pricey due to circumstances of sign and trade but also means you gotta be a place he’s willing to sign
Then nobody else on the list
Larkin - bonafide but cost prohibitive and I like the strategy of not trading with Yz. I’d give an offer if Detroit were asking for them but I would keep it relatively modest
Brady - not convinced Ottawa will move him or that if they did that we’d be able to outbid the rest but I’d like to be wrong
Zegras - doesn’t fit the style we need but it would be fun if he were acquired
Imma guess Zegras costs more than Larkin, although I could argue the other side of that argument too. Feels like Larkin would be pricey but if Detroit moves him they’re kinda looking to the future and may get more unproven assets in return. I think Anahiem will be able to get more nhl talent if they move Zegras.
And imma guess Brady would cost more than Marner, but I don’t think anybody besides Toronto will get Marner for free - they’ve had the time to plan and I’d be willing to bet they’ll work out a sign and trade prior to july1
If I had to order these guys in terms of if I’d want to trade for them my list would be:
1. Marner - legit top 10 talent in prime aged years who probably isn’t super pricey due to circumstances of sign and trade but also means you gotta be a place he’s willing to sign
Then nobody else on the list
Larkin - bonafide but cost prohibitive and I like the strategy of not trading with Yz. I’d give an offer if Detroit were asking for them but I would keep it relatively modest
Brady - not convinced Ottawa will move him or that if they did that we’d be able to outbid the rest but I’d like to be wrong
Zegras - doesn’t fit the style we need but it would be fun if he were acquired
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ScratchCatFever
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- Oct 14, 2018
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The most intriguing name on this list would for me would be Cirelli, as he would perfectly fit our criteria for a bridge 2b-Center to allow another year or two of solid development for Dvorsky. Though, I don't see a scenario in which Tampa would realistically consider moving him since their competitive outlook appears pretty solid for another 2-3 years after this one, or unless someone offered their left nut and a Tim Horton's gift card. The price of his contract is reasonable but the 6 years remaining on it may make me weary as a high bidder on him.
TheOrganist
Don't Call Him Alex
- Feb 21, 2006
- 4,375
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Interestingly, it’s been reported that a lot of agents of prominent prospect defenseman aren’t as concerned about burning a year of their ELC because they feel two years isn’t enough time to establish themselves and earn a good payday on their second contact. This seems like an organizational preference issue with Willander and his agent cause nothing else really makes much logical sense. They are negotiating about things on the margins.
Had a career year as a pending UFA at the age of 29. Prior season highs were 16 goals and 31 points. He is going to cash in and whoever signs him will regret it about 2 weeks into next season. Let Nashville make those mistakes.
Could be wrong, but assuming we don’t make the conference finals, I think we are locked into 19 at the draft.
MissouriMook
Still just a Mook among men
- Jul 4, 2014
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I think we’re destined for pick #18 as the playoff team with the second worst record. I believe the only way we pick at 17 is if the Habs make the conference final.
We had a better record than MTL and NJ. Either way, to the point Dizee was making, happy to trade that pick in the right deal.
We could move up to 18 if either Montreal or Jersey make conference final.
MissouriMook
Still just a Mook among men
- Jul 4, 2014
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Whoops. Forgot about New Jersey. On the plus side, I didn’t forget about Dre.
AyeBah
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- Apr 5, 2019
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Brian39
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I'd be stunned if Zegras has more value than Larkin.
Larkin is a five time 30+ goal scorer and three time 70+ point scorer (who has 2 other seasons where he hit 69 points in 68 and 71 games). His career high goal total is 33 and his career high point total is 79. His most recent season was 30 goals and 70 points. He is a legit center with above-average-to-good defensive play and high end faceoff ability.
Zegras has zero 30+ goal seasons and zero 70+ point seasons. His career high goal total is 23. He hit that mark twice, which is the only two times he's topped 15 goals. His career high point total is 65, which was one of two 60+ point seasons on his resume. His most recent season was 12 goals and 32 points through 57 games, which put him on pace for 17 goals and 46 points. In the 88 total games he's played the last 2 years he has 18 goals and 47 points (Neighbours had 22 goals and 46 points in 82 games this year while Schenn had 18 goals and 50 points in 82 games this year for comparison). He is abysmal at the dot, well below average defensively, and has been shifted over to wing full-time (and almost certainly permanently).
Both entered the league in their age 19 seasons. Zegras has 67 goals and 186 points through 268 career NHL games in his first 5 years in the league. Larkin had 107 goals and 266 points through 389 games at that stage of his career, including his first 30+ goal and 70+ point season. Zegras' pace is pretty comparable to that, but missing 25+ games in back-to-back seasons recently is a legitimate concern and his game outside offensive production is miles behind where Larkin was at by 23.
Larkin is one of the best 32 centers in the league and he had established himself as that by the time he was Zegras' age. There is a good argument that he's far enough down the list of top 32 centers that he can't be a 1C on a Cup contender, but he would be one of the best 2Cs in the league if he were slotted into that role. So far in his career, Zegras' best season was the #1 winger on a horrible team and he has clearly not yet established himself as a top line winger for a contender. His past 2 seasons have been well short of that peak too. I think Zegras' ceiling is pretty well short of what Larkin has proven to be. I could see him becoming better offensively, but not by a massive margin. I think his ceiling is probably a 35 goal, 85 point guy and I think that he would maybe hit those numbers once or twice rather than consistently providing that kind of offense. That would only be a hair better than Larkin offensively, but he is absolutely never going to be the defensive player Larkin is.
Larkin is an established, lock-it-in 30 goal, 70 point 1C entering his age 29 season. His AAV might be a touch high today (14th among centers) but will almost certainly slide into the 20s over the next couple years. It expires when he is 34 years old, so it should age pretty well instead of being a lock to have multiple 'bad' years at the end. Zegras has 1 year left on a $5.75M that he hasn't lived up to the last couple years and while he is an RFA next summer, he has the ability to get to UFA a year later. Any extension signed this summer would be a massive risk and any extension signed after he potentially 'proves it' next year will be very expensive. I see better long term value (and/or less risk) with Larkin's contract than Zegras.
I can't imagine any team paying anything close for Zegras than they would for Larkin.
Would throw a massive party if we got Larkin, but that seems like a bad move for Detroit. Just don’t see it happening, and especially for picks and prospects. Would cost one of Kyrou, Bolduc or Snuggs to get Stevie Y to even pick up the phone.
For the sake of fun trade talk though, I’d gladly give them Neighbours, Jiricek, and our 2025 1st in a heartbeat.
Or if they want a center back, Dvorsky, Hofer, B-level Dman prospect and our 1st.
For the sake of fun trade talk though, I’d gladly give them Neighbours, Jiricek, and our 2025 1st in a heartbeat.
Or if they want a center back, Dvorsky, Hofer, B-level Dman prospect and our 1st.
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If I were another GM making a trade with ST Louis right now, I’d try hard to get Snuggerud. He’s going to be productive and in a nice cost controlled contract for a while.
ChicagoBlues
See
- Oct 24, 2006
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I built an Index of players who have been good at High Danger scoring chances over the last 3 seasons (min 10GP). To create it, I summed the z-scores of the following metrics (all from NST):
Josh Doan (ARI, 100th Percentile) | Barrett Hayton (UTA, 98th Percentile) | Brady Tkachuk (OTT, 98th Percentile) | Matthew Knies (TOR, 98th Percentile) | Jonah Gadjovich (S.J, 97th Percentile) | Kailer Yamamoto (EDM, 97th Percentile) | Adam Klapka (CGY, 97th Percentile) | Seth Jarvis (CAR, 97th Percentile) | Pierre-Luc Dubois (WSH, 97th Percentile) | Gabriel Vilardi (WPG, 96th Percentile) | Nico Hischier (N.J, 96th Percentile) | Pierre-Luc Dubois (WPG, 96th Percentile) | Dmitri Voronkov (CBJ, 96th Percentile) | Joey Anderson (TOR, 95th Percentile) | Jackson Blake (CAR, 95th Percentile) | Wyatt Johnston (DAL, 95th Percentile) | Linus Karlsson (VAN, 95th Percentile) | Arthur Kaliyev (L.A, 94th Percentile) | Elmer Soderblom (DET, 94th Percentile) | Brandon Hagel (T.B, 94th Percentile) | Connor McMichael (WSH, 93th Percentile) | Drew O'Connor (PIT, 93th Percentile) | Nils Hoglander (VAN, 92th Percentile) | Liam Foudy (NSH, 92th Percentile) | Clayton Keller (UTA, 92th Percentile) | Dylan Cozens (OTT, 91th Percentile) | Jesper Bratt (N.J, 91th Percentile) | Logan Stankoven (DAL, 91th Percentile) | Joshua Roy (MTL, 91th Percentile) | Juuso Parssinen (NYR, 91th Percentile) | Barrett Hayton (ARI, 91th Percentile) | Noah Philp (EDM, 90th Percentile) | Kailer Yamamoto (UTA, 90th Percentile) | Logan Stankoven (CAR, 90th Percentile)
Averaging the scores across teams, the Blues ranked 29th in the league on this index over the last 3 seasons. The only player we've rostered who was above the 90th percentile was Josh Leivo. The best teams at getting in front of the net have been CAR, EDM, and DAL. The best player on the list was Mikey Eyssimont in his 20-game stint with the Sharks. The best player with over 100GP was Zach Hyman.
It's all pretty rough and ready, but it was an interesting experiment. The index suggests as a team/system we have a problem getting to the High-Danger areas. Acquiring somebody from that list above would vary in price, but taking a swing on some of the more inexperienced guys could be a gamble worth taking. It's a gap in our team's strengths, which is weird to say about the Blues but there ya go.
- Individual High Danger Scoring Chances / 60
- Ratio of High Danger to Total Scoring Changes / 60
- On-Ice High Danger Corsi For / 60
- On-Ice High Danger Goals For / 60
Josh Doan (ARI, 100th Percentile) | Barrett Hayton (UTA, 98th Percentile) | Brady Tkachuk (OTT, 98th Percentile) | Matthew Knies (TOR, 98th Percentile) | Jonah Gadjovich (S.J, 97th Percentile) | Kailer Yamamoto (EDM, 97th Percentile) | Adam Klapka (CGY, 97th Percentile) | Seth Jarvis (CAR, 97th Percentile) | Pierre-Luc Dubois (WSH, 97th Percentile) | Gabriel Vilardi (WPG, 96th Percentile) | Nico Hischier (N.J, 96th Percentile) | Pierre-Luc Dubois (WPG, 96th Percentile) | Dmitri Voronkov (CBJ, 96th Percentile) | Joey Anderson (TOR, 95th Percentile) | Jackson Blake (CAR, 95th Percentile) | Wyatt Johnston (DAL, 95th Percentile) | Linus Karlsson (VAN, 95th Percentile) | Arthur Kaliyev (L.A, 94th Percentile) | Elmer Soderblom (DET, 94th Percentile) | Brandon Hagel (T.B, 94th Percentile) | Connor McMichael (WSH, 93th Percentile) | Drew O'Connor (PIT, 93th Percentile) | Nils Hoglander (VAN, 92th Percentile) | Liam Foudy (NSH, 92th Percentile) | Clayton Keller (UTA, 92th Percentile) | Dylan Cozens (OTT, 91th Percentile) | Jesper Bratt (N.J, 91th Percentile) | Logan Stankoven (DAL, 91th Percentile) | Joshua Roy (MTL, 91th Percentile) | Juuso Parssinen (NYR, 91th Percentile) | Barrett Hayton (ARI, 91th Percentile) | Noah Philp (EDM, 90th Percentile) | Kailer Yamamoto (UTA, 90th Percentile) | Logan Stankoven (CAR, 90th Percentile)
Averaging the scores across teams, the Blues ranked 29th in the league on this index over the last 3 seasons. The only player we've rostered who was above the 90th percentile was Josh Leivo. The best teams at getting in front of the net have been CAR, EDM, and DAL. The best player on the list was Mikey Eyssimont in his 20-game stint with the Sharks. The best player with over 100GP was Zach Hyman.
It's all pretty rough and ready, but it was an interesting experiment. The index suggests as a team/system we have a problem getting to the High-Danger areas. Acquiring somebody from that list above would vary in price, but taking a swing on some of the more inexperienced guys could be a gamble worth taking. It's a gap in our team's strengths, which is weird to say about the Blues but there ya go.
^ I appreciate the effort you’re putting into this but it’s clear that what you’re using isn’t enough data to tell who the best net front players are. There’s so much waiver fodder on that list. Bringing in guys like Joey Anderson, Jusso Parsinnen and Liam Foudy would help us? There’s no way that’s true. I mean when Josh Leivo was here, did anyone think he was making an impact in any way? I never once saw anyone mention him being a great netfront guy for us. Some of that just doesn’t make any sense nor align with eye tests at all.
Part of the problem is that making your minimum 10 games is way too small of a sample size. That won’t tell us anything so I’d start with adjusting that.
But also, while there certainly are some players that thrive in front of the net, I believe the majority of it is attributed to coaching and systems. It’s not like Carolina and Dallas have found the grittiest, most physically dominant players. They just have talent and have smartly figured out ways to get their guys open in high danger areas.
Part of the problem is that making your minimum 10 games is way too small of a sample size. That won’t tell us anything so I’d start with adjusting that.
But also, while there certainly are some players that thrive in front of the net, I believe the majority of it is attributed to coaching and systems. It’s not like Carolina and Dallas have found the grittiest, most physically dominant players. They just have talent and have smartly figured out ways to get their guys open in high danger areas.
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I intentionally kept the filters pretty wide open for this one. I find it to be pretty myopic when people are like "the only person who can help this team is XYZ $14mil player". There are plenty of guys who, when given a role that suits their skillsets in a system that needs them, would thrive. William Karlsson is patient #1 when it comes to that. Oskar Sundqvist was nothing special with Pittsburgh. Many such examples.
Some guys, especially on the lower games-played spectrum, are thrown into that role by necessity and won't hold up in that role over time. But suffice it to say that high danger chances are not only generated by Pat Maroon being fat in front of the net. Smaller guys like Yamamoto are pretty good at darting to the net and cashing in on rebounds.
So yes, I do think guys like Parsinnen and Linus Karlsson would be good, low-cost high-potential gambles based on their limited results. Especially when the thing we are bad at is the thing they appear to be good at. They would at the very least be better gambles than somebody like Texier, who has always been a perimeter player. We've got enough of those. Between Kyrou, Snuggerud, and Bolduc, I'm not overly concerned with our ability to score from distance in the future. Dvorsky scores quite a bit from the net front, so that's a positive sign. We don't need an $8mil player to come in and knock in rebounds. What this exercise shows is that there is value for that skillset that is not being taken advantage of by some teams. We should take advantage of it.
Brian39
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- Apr 24, 2014
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Hard to say without knowing what Yzerman is looking for.
If he is looking to try and fill the center void Larkin would leave in the short and long term, then I'd try to focus the deal around Schenn and Dvorsky. That's a veteran leader who can mentor their young players while also acting as a minutes shield to prevent their up and coming young center group from drowning over the next couple years. And then Dvorsky adds another damn good center prospect. I like their 2 big center prospects in a world where they just need to fill in the middle 6 C group behind Larkin (or get one to become a 1A/1B with Larkin). But those two aren't enough if Larkin is out of the organization. Adding Dvorsky would very much help that.
Schenn + Dvorsky alone shouldn't/wouldn't be enough to get it done. From there I'd be asking what Yzerman is looking to accomplish this summer and attempting to help complete or facilitate those goals. Is there a contract he regrets and wants to move to create cap space? Name the contract and I'll take it. Does he like one of our non-essential roster players (Joseph, Texier, Walker, Torpo, Sunny, Leddy, Kessel, Tucker)? Great, have at him. Is he looking for a pick? This year's 1st is on the table. If this is a trade coming together post-draft, then the 2026 lottery-protected 1st would be on the table.
Push comes to shove I'd do Schenn, Dvorsky, and a 1st for Larkin. If the 3rd asset beyond Schenn/Dvorsky is the 1st rounder, then I'd be looking to get some kind of pick back in return and/or get them to take Texier (or Joseph) off our hands.
If they aren't interested in Schenn and/or Dvorsky, then I'm trying to figure out what they are interested in and going from there. Thomas is off the table completely. Kyrou and Holloway are nearly off the table. Buch isn't waiving a full NTC to go there, so he's functionally off the table. Any other forward would be on the table as the NHL piece, but the rest of my offer would depend on which NHL player was involved. Parayko wouldn't make sense for them and I doubt they would want Broberg given their glut of 22 year old LHD (Edvinsson, Wallinder, and S Buium). But any D we have besides those two would be on the table as an NHL piece in the deal.
And if they want pure futures, then I'd look to trade Schenn somewhere on his trade list for pure futures and then flip those futures plus some of our existing futures for Larkin.
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