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2024-2025 Blues Multi-Purpose Thread.

Brian39 said:
The Blues are +3 under Monty and have been as high as +5 under him (multiple times). Since he took over, their record under him has bounced between +2 at the lowest and +5 at the highest. The inability to get past +2 is based much more on the hole when Monty took over than their play since.

I get what you are saying about the hill to climb, but that doesn't do anything to convince me that Calgary can't have a backslide or that the Blues can't slightly improve. I wouldn't bet on everything going right with even money, but I don't think the gap is so unsurmountable that it is impossible. They are getting close and need to win games ASAP, but I wouldn't say done for sure.
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Counterpoint, they are -1 under Montgomery over their last 23 after the initial five game jolt where they went 4-0-1.

They have 32 games left, and going +8 over that period, a record of 19-11-2 or some such, gets them merely to 90 points.

90 points could get in this year but it probably will not because that is outlier low for the 8th best team in the West to get in. Let's say it's 94 points they need in the end. That would require a 21-9-2 finish. .688. Nothing in this team's play remotely suggests 21-9-2 is imminent. And even then they might lose the tiebreaker at 94. Even if they need a 92 and would win the tiebreaker that's 20-10-2.

I'm not telling anyone else when to give up playoff hopes, I'm just explaining how I believe they're done.
 
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PocketNines said:
Counterpoint, they are -1 under Montgomery over their last 23 after the initial five game jolt where they went 4-0-1.

They have 32 games left, and going +8 over that period, a record of 19-11-2 or some such, gets them merely to 90 points.

90 points could get in this year but it probably will not because that is outlier low for the 8th best team in the West to get in. Let's say it's 94 points they need in the end. That would require a 21-9-2 finish. .688. Nothing in this team's play remotely suggests 21-9-2 is imminent. And even then they might lose the tiebreaker at 94. Even if they need a 92 and would win the tiebreaker that's 20-10-2.

I'm not telling anyone else when to give up playoff hopes, I'm just explaining how I believe they're done.
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I totally agree that they aren't getting in if 94 points is the line. I think I'm just less confident that any of Calgary/Vancouver/STL/Utah will actually break the 90 point mark. This is the worst the Western Conference bubble has looked to me in a while.
 
The point distribution in the West is unusual this year. We have more separation from the teams currently in playoff spots. The Blues need to pass 2 teams to get into that group. That includes Vancouver who have have played -2 for January so far, and +1 for all of December. Passing the Canucks looks entirely feasible. A 2 point win tonight would go a long way. A team in disarray might circle the wagons and make a surge, but it’d easier to believe the opposite.

That leaves only Calgary. You have to make up 7 points, basically. I think the Flames are going to have to help. But they look capable of sliding too. I expect the Blues to come up a little short. But I don’t think point targets as as instructive when it’s really down to just a 3 team race (barring a miraculous Utah run, or a Kings collapse…or something even more unlikely).

It’s an easy race to monitor. I’ll keep rooting for wins. The Blues played well enough to win that Dallas game. That type of effort will yield points most of the time. If they’d banked 2 there, we’d feel better about the striking distance. I continue to believe the Blues will have to rattle off a 6-8 game win streak. I just haven’t seen anything yet to believe that’s a lost cause. The guys still look like they’re fighting, and the quality of play still looks like it’s an upward trajectory. Leddy’s return won’t hurt. Some other teams are going to suffer rough injuries too. Maybe the door will open for the Blues.

If they fall short, it will just be what we all expected. But I appreciate that these still feel like meaningful, games.
 
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At this point I would be honestly shocked to see the Blues make the playoffs. The Blues are 5 points back and the team we are chasing has two games in hand. Even if the Flames go 1 and 1 in those two we would have to win 4 more games than them the rest over the next 32. A damn near impossible task considering we can't string 3 wins together. At this point I am selling any UFA or 2 year we have and listening on anyone not named Thomas, Kyrou, Broberg and Holloway.
 
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Mike Liut said:
We could get a haul for Parayko, but I’m afraid it would push our rebuild back 2 more years…minimum. He’s just that irreplaceable
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Yeah I would put him in the tier of listening but we would need a pretty strong offer. I would also only move Neighbours and Bolduc in a hockey trade. I have had this train of thought going back to last season. It's why I still think signing Buch was a mistake. If I was the GM I would be floating his name to New Jersey for Nemec.
That would really balance out our future defense with our future offense.
 
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Blanick said:
Yeah I would put him in the tier of listening but we would need a pretty strong offer. I would also only move Neighbours and Bolduc in a hockey trade. I have had this train of thought going back to last season. It's why I still think signing Buch was a mistake. If I was the GM I would be floating his name to New Jersey for Nemec.
That would really balance out our future defense with our future offense.
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I’m probably wrong, but with the extension, didn’t they also add full NTC protection for this season to Buch’s contract? Again, may be wrong on this and his NTC might kick in next season.
 
TruBlueFan1970 said:
I’m probably wrong, but with the extension, didn’t they also add full NTC protection for this season to Buch’s contract? Again, may be wrong on this and his NTC might kick in next season.
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Blanick said:
Not sure honestly. I will let someone else figure that out.
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This was discussed before. The new cap sites disagree, but it was widely reported that we retroactively gave a full NTC to Buch this year with his new contract. He had full NTC right now until free agency starts in summer of 2029.
 
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Mike Liut said:
Army will be addressing the media after today's practice. #stlblues

Hmm
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Is the Perunovuch trade worth a short presser? They aren't firing Monty. They aren't announcing we are sellers. Armstrong isn't stepping down. I doubt they'd announce a press conference before a major trade is announced.

I'd guess they will talk about Perunovich. Then they take a planted question about being outside the playoffs to reassure the fan base it's all still according to the plan.
 
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Addressing the media for what reason? We know you want to atone for the last three years but it's not happening. The Blues simply need to stay the course right now and wait for prospects. That doesn't align with a guy who wants to leave a legacy. I'm very concerned he's going to do something short term & stupid leading up to the trade deadline. Thanks for the parting gifts in Broberg & Holloway but I'm so ready for a new voice to lead this organization. Second time in franchise history the Blues will miss the playoffs three straight years.
 
Mike Liut said:
Army will be addressing the media after today's practice. #stlblues

Hmm
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Well it's a clear moment when even the last vestiges of hope for playoffs this year have died. He knows it, like we do. So now he has a desire to re-set fan expectation, so he will weave what he wants to get expressed into his answers. He wants the players and fans to understand what he's going to do, but first he has to get asked about contracts like Buch and asked about Kyrou's NTC protection July 1 in a media scrum so he can put everyone on notice that he is still not going to stop working on the pieces before he quits
 
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Majorityof1 said:
Is the Perunovuch trade worth a short presser? They aren't firing Monty. They aren't announcing we are sellers. Armstrong isn't stepping down. I doubt they'd announce a press conference before a major trade is announced.

I'd guess they will talk about Perunovich. Then they take a planted question about being outside the playoffs to reassure the fan base it's all still according to the plan.
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I definitely agree that it seems like a very very odd time for a presser. I can't see Army calling a presser for a trade. I also can't see him doing a Presser just to acknowledge that we just don't have it this year, at least until the Trade Deadline. I absolutely do not see a coaching change after putting 5 years on Monty or stripping Schenn of the C (He's far from an issue since the coaching change).

This feels out of left field imho.
 
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