2024-2025 Blues Multi-Purpose Thread.

[Snubbed4Vezina]

He literally wrote an article about this and potential adjustments during the past season, y'all just get too mad when someone says negative things about the team or its players. He is absolutely right in his analysis that Parayko's deployment as the #1 is hurting his performance and the team. We've seen Parayko on better offensive versions of the Blues. He was still poor at contributing past the center line.

Instead of generalizing and discrediting an entire group of posters as you often do, how about you tell us if you believe Parayko is more or less valuable than the players I mentioned? Do you believe Parayko's value is accurately captured in a $2.5M valuation?

 

[Thallis]

Instead of generalizing and discrediting an entire group of posters, how about you tell us if you believe Parayko is less valuable than the players I mentioned?

Aside from maybe Brodie, nobody believes that Parayko is a worse player than any of those guys, and Dom doesn't either. That's not what this says.

I'm also not generalizing or discrediting anyone. I just think fans take these things way to personally, and the moaning about Dom whenever his model looks less than favorably on what has been a mediocre team for the past 3 years shows that. Dom regularly does analyses on the shortcomings of his model and where it goes wrong, including last season when he acknowledged that it's likely selling Dmen who get heavy matchup minutes short.

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

"y'all just get too mad when someone says negative things about the team or its players"

That's generalizing.

So the valuation is off and the model continues to be flawed season after season.

I agree that Dom has to see the flaw in his model. His analysis and addressing the shortcomings of his model has yet to lead to more accurately capturing the value of a player like Parayko, but that doesn't stop him from dedicating 20 lines to try and defend it. To me that's where the 'trolling' comes in.

Don't bring it up on a Blues discussion forum though. That would be "too emotional" of us.

 

[Celtic Note]

So the valuation is off and the model continues to be flawed.

His analysis and addressing the shortcomings of his model has yet to lead to more accurately capturing the value of a player like Parayko, but that doesn't stop him from dedicating 20 lines to try and defend it.

We shouldn't bring it up on a Blues discussion forum though. That would be "too emotional" of us.

No model will ever be perfect, especially in a sport like hockey. It’s not a realistic assumption. Nor is tailoring a model to cater to players or teams that are more anomalies than typical.

If I challenge any fan here to make a better model, the response would be crickets.

Is Dom’s model perfect? No. Do I put a ton of stock into it? No. It’s just a tool. It happens to be one of the best ones out there, even if it’s flawed. But no reason for people to get bent out of shape over the model or his poor takes.

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

No model will ever be perfect, especially in a sport like hockey. It’s not a realistic assumption. Nor is tailoring a model to cater to players or teams that are more anomalies than typical.

If I challenge any fan here to make a better model, the response would be crickets.

Is Dom’s model perfect? No. Do I put a ton of stock into it? No. It’s just a tool. It happens to be one of the best ones out there, even if it’s flawed. But no reason for people to get bent out of shape over the model or his poor takes.

I agree with most of what you said. I disagree with generalizing and projecting emotion onto people for pointing out the flaws in the model. That's strange to me.

 

[Thallis]

"y'all just get too mad when someone says negative things about the team or its players"

That's generalizing.

So the valuation is off and the model continues to be flawed season after season.

I agree that Dom has to see the flaw in his model. His analysis and addressing the shortcomings of his model has yet to lead to more accurately capturing the value of a player like Parayko, but that doesn't stop him from dedicating 20 lines to try and defend it. To me that's where the 'trolling' comes in.

Don't bring it up on a Blues discussion forum though. That would be "too emotional" of us.

There are 4 posts personally attacking Dom previous to my post because they don't like the outcome of his model. The "20 lines" he wrote are perfectly reasonable analysis independent from the model's output. It isn't that serious.

 

[Xerloris]

He literally wrote an article about this and potential adjustments during the past season, y'all just get too mad when someone says negative things about the team or its players. He is absolutely right in his analysis that Parayko's deployment as the #1 is hurting his performance and the team. We've seen Parayko on better offensive versions of the Blues. He was still poor at contributing past the center line.

I'm sure Paraykos lack of offense has absolutely nothing to do with how he's actually deployed and coached right?

 

[Spektre]

He literally wrote an article about this and potential adjustments during the past season, y'all just get too mad when someone says negative things about the team or its players. He is absolutely right in his analysis that Parayko's deployment as the #1 is hurting his performance and the team. We've seen Parayko on better offensive versions of the Blues. He was still poor at contributing past the center line.

Who are y’all?

If Parayko was anything close to a 2.5m dollar player I would be the first to admit it.

Dom is a hack. He’s a hack because he’s publicly admitted to not liking the Blues. There’s zero chance he watches Blues hockey. He relies on his own flawed model to evaluate players. He lost money gambling against the Blues.

He’s simply not impartial.

 

[bleedblue1223]

His model always struggles to evaluate those that play extreme defensive assignments like Parayko. It's not like Parayko gets a typical #1 assignment because that would also include a significant amount of offensive zone starts and softer matchups. He gets a pure shutdown assignment where it's more or less pure hard and defensive minutes.

That's also a pretty hard thing to evaluate with numbers.

 

[Reality Czech]

He literally wrote an article about this and potential adjustments during the past season, y'all just get too mad when someone says negative things about the team or its players. He is absolutely right in his analysis that Parayko's deployment as the #1 is hurting his performance and the team. We've seen Parayko on better offensive versions of the Blues. He was still poor at contributing past the center line.

Any model that has Parayko as the 4th worst contract in the league is a crappy model. You don't need your #1 defensive guy to score 40+ points a year. Sure it would be nice but I don't see it as a negative. Not sure how you can say his deployment is hurting him or the Blues. We'd be worse off if he was deployed differently.

I agree with most of what you said. I disagree with generalizing and projecting emotion onto people for pointing out the flaws in the model. That's strange to me.

Don't you know that the more negative you are about the Blues, the bigger fan you are? I call it the Ike Turner model.

 

[Bye Bye Blueston]

Any model that has Parayko as the 4th worst contract in the league is a crappy model. You don't need your #1 defensive guy to score 40+ points a year. Sure it would be nice but I don't see it as a negative. Not sure how you can say his deployment is hurting him or the Blues. We'd be worse off if he was deployed differently.

You hit on a key point that is often overlooked. His insane deployment hurts HIS numbers, but it helps the team in that it allows our other D pairs to get easier assignments where they can perform better.

It's similar to the logic behind putting Buchy at 2C; it will likely suppress his numbers because he would produce much more on Thomas' wing than carrying 2nd line in a role he isn't as good at, but since we lack enough really good players (we have probably 4 at this point, unless Faulk bigtime rebounds and Neighbours takes next steps) their sacrifices allow us as a team to compete for a playoff spot. It's why Army loves both of them and wants them both around long-term as building blocks, even once they reach the downside of their careers. Parayko and Buchy represent who we want to be as a team, the successors to JayBo and Steen from our glory days.

 

[Majorityof1]

Any model that has Parayko as the 4th worst contract in the league is a crappy model. You don't need your #1 defensive guy to score 40+ points a year. Sure it would be nice but I don't see it as a negative. Not sure how you can say his deployment is hurting him or the Blues. We'd be worse off if he was deployed differently.



Don't you know that the more negative you are about the Blues, the bigger fan you are? I call it the Ike Turner model.

A model is crappy because it struggles with 1 player? That is ridiculous. If I developed a model that could correctly pick which number a roulette wheel would fall on with 100% accuracy for ever number except 5, that would be a flawed model. Any time the roulette wheel would land on 5, it would give me another # and I'd lose. But I'd win every other time. Is that a crappy model? I don't think so, because it would make me a ton of money (and get me banned in every casino I use it). Just because Dom's model struggles in areas does not make it worthless. That is a very, very myopic viewpoint to think so.

 

[shpongle falls]

Is there any way to watch the Blues and Brews event? I’m looking for it but can’t find it anywhere.

 

[Brockon]

Anybody have suggestions on where I might be able to catch tonight's preseason game vs Dallas in another 2 hours?

Looking for a backup plan in case my viewing from Canada gets blacked out from the Victory+ account I just set up.

The whole broadcast games available vary by region in the terms and conditions is pretty vague about what may or may not be available...

 

[BlueMed]

A model is crappy because it struggles with 1 player? That is ridiculous. If I developed a model that could correctly pick which number a roulette wheel would fall on with 100% accuracy for ever number except 5, that would be a flawed model. Any time the roulette wheel would land on 5, it would give me another # and I'd lose. But I'd win every other time. Is that a crappy model? I don't think so, because it would make me a ton of money (and get me banned in every casino I use it). Just because Dom's model struggles in areas does not make it worthless. That is a very, very myopic viewpoint to think so.

No model will ever be perfect, especially in a sport like hockey. It’s not a realistic assumption. Nor is tailoring a model to cater to players or teams that are more anomalies than typical.

If I challenge any fan here to make a better model, the response would be crickets.

Is Dom’s model perfect? No. Do I put a ton of stock into it? No. It’s just a tool. It happens to be one of the best ones out there, even if it’s flawed. But no reason for people to get bent out of shape over the model or his poor takes.

There are 4 posts personally attacking Dom previous to my post because they don't like the outcome of his model. The "20 lines" he wrote are perfectly reasonable analysis independent from the model's output. It isn't that serious.

So his model is a good one because realistically no model is perfect? The reality is, we don't know what the model actually looks like (as far as I've seen) and therefore don't know what variables go into it. That being said, it's perfectly reasonable for people to question a model, especially if its predictive values are outlandish (eg. Colton Parayko's projected annual value at 2.5M). I don't think there's a single GM in the NHL that would value Parayko less than 5.0M AAV (even considering his age and contract length). I'm wondering if his model takes into account offensive zone starts. Looking at the prior 3 years: Parayko's oZS% has dropped from 51% to 37% to 36%. For comparison sake, Niklas Hjalmarsson's oZS% as a pure-shutdown defensemen during Chicago's dynasty era (2010-2015) ranged from 39 to 44%. The majority of "number 1 defensemen" have an oZS% of at least 50% and these past 2 seasons, Parayko was not treated as your typical alpha dog (Torey Krug sheltering effect).

My question for those who have defended his model: why is it an effective model? How have you tested the performance of his model and which statistical approaches did you use (eg. R-squared, Brier score, Hosmer-Lemeshow test)?

 

[tfriede2]

Anybody have suggestions on where I might be able to catch tonight's preseason game vs Dallas in another 2 hours?

Looking for a backup plan in case my viewing from Canada gets blacked out from the Victory+ account I just set up.

The whole broadcast games available vary by region in the terms and conditions is pretty vague about what may or may not be available...

I believe directly from the Blues website

 

[bleedblue1223]

A model is crappy because it struggles with 1 player? That is ridiculous. If I developed a model that could correctly pick which number a roulette wheel would fall on with 100% accuracy for ever number except 5, that would be a flawed model. Any time the roulette wheel would land on 5, it would give me another # and I'd lose. But I'd win every other time. Is that a crappy model? I don't think so, because it would make me a ton of money (and get me banned in every casino I use it). Just because Dom's model struggles in areas does not make it worthless. That is a very, very myopic viewpoint to think so.

It's not just 1 player. He has Pelech as a 3.2M player. It's that type of deployment that his model struggles on.

 

[Majorityof1]

It's not just 1 player. He has Pelech as a 3.2M player. It's that type of deployment that his model struggles on.

Even so. If the model struggles with 1 type of player than ignore it for that type of player. But its foolish to throw the baby out with the bathwater for 1 flaw.

 

[Snubbed4Vezina]

Even so. If the model struggles with 1 type of player than ignore it for that type of player. But its foolish to throw the baby out with the bathwater for 1 flaw.

You're right. The main issue that people have is that Dom doesn't acknowledge how irrelevant this projection is for a player like Parayko. He doesn’t provide any context, like: Yes, Parayko is on this list, but we shouldn’t put much weight on that because he’s a defensive defenseman with tough assignments that my model doesn’t account for properly.

Instead, he criticizes Parayko as if he’s massively underperforming his contract, claiming year after year that Parayko has one of the worst contracts in the NHL and that it’s basically an albatross for the Blues. In other words, it’s Parayko who’s flawed, not the model's inability to capture his true value. To me, that feels disingenuous, and for many Blues fans who see his impact night after night, it definitely doesn't sit well.