2024 “Tank” Thread

[DuckDuckGetz]

I don't remember the source but what I read was they are doing away with in person altogether. So it will be like the Drsydale draft.

Stupid IMO because for trade purposes it's good to have all the GM's together.

I think a few GMs actually stated the exact opposite. They prefer to be decentralized so that people can't see what they're doing if they're trying to make a trade.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

This team is forsure better then last year's team. Injuries have killed them this year compared to last year.

This year's team has accumulated more talent than last year's team, especially on defense. As for injuries, last year's team was affected too - especially on defense. This year's defense absorbed the loss of Drysdale far better than last year's team and Vaaks is healthy this year to show his defensive talent was held back by injuries.

 

[Ducks]

These are our picks this year ahead of the trade deadline and whatever we might pick up there. It would be nice to add another first this year if possible. This is the last year that we have picks stockpiled. We haven't added anything for 2025 and we traded our 2025 2nd in the deal with Philly to get Gauthier.

 

[AngelDuck]

These are our picks this year ahead of the trade deadline and whatever we might pick up there. It would be nice to add another first this year if possible. This is the last year that we have picks stockpiled. We haven't added anything for 2025 and we traded our 2025 2nd in the deal with Philly to get Gauthier.

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That SJ 3rd is basically a late 2nd. Verbeek has a lot of bullets and really has to hit on some

 

[Ducks]

That SJ 3rd is basically a late 2nd. Verbeek has a lot of bullets and really has to hit on some

Agreed. After this season there's not many veterans left to sell off at the deadline, and we aren't stocked up on picks for 2025. This is basically the last rebuild draft we have unless we start selling off young players for futures which would prolong the rebuild. Verbeek needs to make the most of this draft and start building a competitive roster for the 24-25 season.

 

[FiveHoleTickler]

Agreed. After this season there's not many veterans left to sell off at the deadline, and we aren't stocked up on picks for 2025. This is basically the last rebuild draft we have unless we start selling off young players for futures which would prolong the rebuild. Verbeek needs to make the most of this draft and start building a competitive roster for the 24-25 season.

To your point about the lack of picks for 2025, I wouldn't be surprised if Verbeek got some for that year at this deadline to spread things around a bit.

It's been mentioned there might be a lot of movement with our prospects due to the logjam of rookies in San Diego next year. Stockpiling so many picks tends to compound that problem.

 

[Trojans86]

I was a huge fan of tanking the last few years to get one of the big 3 but I’m officially over it this year. I’d rather our young guys play well and show they’re going to be special than to move up a few spots in the draft. It’s nice to root for wins now haha!

 

[shach1]

Button doesn't see him as a 100 point guy

 

[Smirnov2Chistov]

It’s nice to root for wins now haha!

what wins?

this season is a total bust. Hoping we can have a crack at Celebrini

 

[eaterfan]

Tonight's game is probably the only one that really matters for draft position for the rest of the season. I think the third and fourth best lottery odds are where the Ducks land.

Ducks aren't "passing" San Jose or Chicago to get into the top 2 spots in the lottery. Ducks are 7 and 9 points up on them with about 25 games left. Ducks are within striking distance of what their final point totals might be.

Ottowa is seemingly too far "behind" the Ducks to beat them in the race to the bottom. They are up 7 points with 2 games in hand.

If Anaheim wins tonight in regulation they will be tied in points with Anaheim having already played one more game. I just did a quick Points per game played and projected that out to the rest of the regular season and that would put the Ducks at 64.43 points and the Blue Jackets at 65.6 points. If Columbus wins it would put their projection at 68.58 points and the Ducks at 61.5 points. An Anaheim win in OT or SO would put the projections at 64.43 vs. 67.09 respectively. A Columbus win in OT/SO would put the projections at CBJ: 68.58 vs. Ana: 62.96.

I'm not sure in the scheme of things there's a big difference between picks 2-6 this year and there's only a 2% difference in winning the lottery finishing 3rd vs 4th from the bottom. But if you do think the pick makes a big difference, this is the game to root for the tank.

 

[Mr Rogers]

One thing that's bizarre is how bad the Ducks have been at home this year even relative to the road. Cronin needs to answer to that in the offseason.

 

[Trojans86]

Tonight's game is probably the only one that really matters for draft position for the rest of the season. I think the third and fourth best lottery odds are where the Ducks land.

Ducks aren't "passing" San Jose or Chicago to get into the top 2 spots in the lottery. Ducks are 7 and 9 points up on them with about 25 games left. Ducks are within striking distance of what their final point totals might be.

Ottowa is seemingly too far "behind" the Ducks to beat them in the race to the bottom. They are up 7 points with 2 games in hand.

If Anaheim wins tonight in regulation they will be tied in points with Anaheim having already played one more game. I just did a quick Points per game played and projected that out to the rest of the regular season and that would put the Ducks at 64.43 points and the Blue Jackets at 65.6 points. If Columbus wins it would put their projection at 68.58 points and the Ducks at 61.5 points. An Anaheim win in OT or SO would put the projections at 64.43 vs. 67.09 respectively. A Columbus win in OT/SO would put the projections at CBJ: 68.58 vs. Ana: 62.96.

I'm not sure in the scheme of things there's a big difference between picks 2-6 this year and there's only a 2% difference in winning the lottery finishing 3rd vs 4th from the bottom. But if you do think the pick makes a big difference, this is the game to root for the tank.

A 2% increase from 9.5% to 11.5% of winning the lottery is actually a 21% increase over 9.5%. That’s pretty significant imo. Chicago won it at 3 last year.

 

[eaterfan]

That's true. As I said, this is the game to lose if you could pick one loss for the rest of the season.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

One thing that's bizarre is how bad the Ducks have been at home this year even relative to the road. Cronin needs to answer to that in the offseason.

Probably nervous playing in front of his boss as his first year jitters?

2023-24 (55 games)

Home: 8-18-1 (17 pts) 0.315 Pts %​

Away: 12-15-1 (25 pts) 0.446 Pts %​

We had something similar to this happen to us a few years ago, during COVID season. I think it was more like depressing playing at home with no one in the stands than it was going away on the road, at least that's how Getz describe it.

2020-21 (56 games)

Home: 6-18-4 (16 pts) 0.286 Pts %​

Away: 11-12-5 (27 pts) 0.482 Pts %​

The following season, we won more at home.

2021-22 (82 games)

Home: 17-19-5 (39 pts) 0.476 Pts %​

Away: 14-18-9 (37 pts) 0.451 Pts %​

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Draft is in Vegas this year…. Anyone considering going?

I might try to make it happen, gives me an excuse for a Vegas trip.

 

[lwvs84]

Draft is in Vegas this year…. Anyone considering going?

I might try to make it happen, gives me an excuse for a Vegas trip.

My friends and I are considering going as a bachelor party

 

[Smirnov2Chistov]

hopefully with Bedard back Chicago can start winning some games. Nothing left to look forward to this season besides the prize of Celebrini

 

[eaterfan]

hopefully with Bedard back Chicago can start winning some games. Nothing left to look forward to this season besides the prize of Celebrini

There's no way the Ducks catch Chicago or San Jose. If the Ducks go 10-16 (all regulation losses, even) that takes them to 62 points. Chicago would have to get 30 points over their last 25 games. San Jose is not much of a different situation.

After last night's game I would imagine there's over a 70% chance the Ducks end up with the 3rd worst record, a 25% chance they end up with the 4th worst record and a 5% chance they end up anywhere else.

Might as well look forward to the young guys playing well, and maybe stealing a win or two! It won't really matter to the final standings.

 

[Terry Yake]

There's no way the Ducks catch Chicago or San Jose. If the Ducks go 10-16 (all regulation losses, even) that takes them to 62 points. Chicago would have to get 30 points over their last 25 games. San Jose is not much of a different situation.

After last night's game I would imagine there's over a 70% chance the Ducks end up with the 3rd worst record, a 25% chance they end up with the 4th worst record and a 5% chance they end up anywhere else.

Might as well look forward to the young guys playing well, and maybe stealing a win or two! It won't really matter to the final standings.

yeah, it'll be neck to neck between chicago and SJ for worst record. both are all but guaranteed to finish bottom 2. ducks are pretty much competing for 3rd worst with columbus and i can't see them finishing any higher than 4th worst with the gap between them and ottawa

root for losses i suppose if your goal is just to pick top 5, but this isn't last year where you had 3 #1 caliber players in the top 3 and finishing outside the top 3 would have set the franchise back. aside from celebrini, there really aren't any potential franchise altering picks in this draft. last year was the time to be rooting for losses

 

[eaterfan]

yeah, it'll be neck to neck between chicago and SJ for worst record. both are all but guaranteed to finish bottom 2. ducks are pretty much competing for 3rd worst with columbus and i can't see them finishing any higher than 4th worst with the gap between them and ottawa

root for losses i suppose if your goal is just to pick top 5, but this isn't last year where you had 3 #1 caliber players in the top 3 and finishing outside the top 3 would have set the franchise back. aside from celebrini, there really aren't any potential franchise altering picks in this draft. last year was the time to be rooting for losses

I think there will be one or two more franchise altering prospects in this draft. I just can't tell you which ones they are yet. I do think there are a few guys with that type of ceiling, but I think development, situation, and luck will play a large part in which of those 5-6 other guys with that sort of ceiling end up being the 1 or two that make it to that level.

 

[The Duck Knight]

I think there will be one or two more franchise altering prospects in this draft. I just can't tell you which ones they are yet. I do think there are a few guys with that type of ceiling, but I think development, situation, and luck will play a large part in which of those 5-6 other guys with that sort of ceiling end up being the 1 or two that make it to that level.

There will definitely be. No draft is just going to be 1 stud and not much else. No telling if the other guys in this draft come out of the top 5, the late 1st, or even later.

 

[Terry Yake]

I think there will be one or two more franchise altering prospects in this draft. I just can't tell you which ones they are yet. I do think there are a few guys with that type of ceiling, but I think development, situation, and luck will play a large part in which of those 5-6 other guys with that sort of ceiling end up being the 1 or two that make it to that level.

well of course. there's always at least a couple guys in every draft who end up becoming stars and help change the fortunes of their franchise. but right now, celebrini is the grand prize and then there's the rest of the field. last season you had 3 grand prizes who would've gone #1 in pretty much any other draft

 

[AngelDuck]

CBJ with a win last night pulled 5 points ahead of us and they’ve played an extra game

We’re pretty locked into the 3-hole barring some radical 25 game run to end the year

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

CBJ with a win last night pulled 5 points ahead of us and they’ve played an extra game

We’re pretty locked into the 3-hole barring some radical 25 game run to end the year

that’s a good spot imo…. Chances are the guys we want will still be available at 3/4. I imagine the top of our list is much different from sharks/columbus and hawks

 

[Kalv]

CBJ with a win last night pulled 5 points ahead of us and they’ve played an extra game

We’re pretty locked into the 3-hole barring some radical 25 game run to end the year

25 games are a lot. I don't think CBJ will get any better, I think the race is still pretty much open