Prospect Info: 2023 HFDevils Prospect Rankings #8

[devilsblood]

Vilen, add Barabosha please.

I'm seeing multiple mentions for Barabosha. Aside from the recent love affair of all things MHL, I'm not seeing the why here.

Squires seems like so much more of an intriguing prospect.

 

[glenwo2]

Walstedt!!!

All your Jesper belong to us

Except for Boqvist.

 

[forceten]

I'm seeing multiple mentions for Barabosha. Aside from the recent love affair of all things MHL, I'm not seeing the why here.

Squires seems like so much more of an intriguing prospect.

Squires is intriguing for sure. Not sure what we have in him as he’s so new. Both should be on the poll

 

[bossram]

I think it's the lone year of stand out performance that is the issue. The shoulder in his D+1, and then Covid took out 2 years where one would expect big #'s.

Promising, but not overly impressive, 1st year in the AHL in 31 games, and then kind of a meh year his 2nd season there.

I'm with you on thinking he could pass Holtz on the NHL depth chart this year, but he still has some proving to do.

His first year in the AHL would have been his draft+2 in the OHL. He was only in the AHL because of COVID, and it was kind of disjointed because he started the year playing in Slovakia. If he had a huge season in the OHL that year, I think he would be looked at differently.

I consider 21-22 to really be his rookie pro season. So in his 2nd real season in the AHL, he was one of the league's top even-strength scorers. That to me puts him much closer and much more likely to make the AHL than a lot of other prospects listed.

 

[Hockey Sports Fan]

I think this speaks to the theme thats been brought up a bunch in these prospect threads: we are stacked.

Squires, who was drafted ahead of Karpovich, and put up a tick under a ppg, hasn’t even made it to the poles yet, and is probably outside our top 20.

Filmon just had a monster D+1 and might not make our top 10. Lenni at 7 is telling.

I was thinking the same think looking at who is and isn’t on the poll and trying to think of who to add. Still doesn’t feel like too long ago that Filmon and Vilen and like…Petr Hauser would be our top prospects. And Foote, Clarke, and Thompson would’ve been forced into NHL roles too early due to a lack of a depth. I like this better.

Edit: Went with Vilen, add Squires

 

[Xirik]

looks like Guadana and Devilsblood could use some eyedrops.

 

[devilsblood]

His first year in the AHL would have been his draft+2 in the OHL. He was only in the AHL because of COVID, and it was kind of disjointed because he started the year playing in Slovakia. If he had a huge season in the OHL that year, I think he would be looked at differently.

I consider 21-22 to really be his rookie pro season. So in his 2nd real season in the AHL, he was one of the league's top even-strength scorers. That to me puts him much closer and much more likely to make the AHL than a lot of other prospects listed.

Good point. I missed that. But still speaks to 2 years of lost big number years which would help sway opinions.

And we’ve done well in terms of producing NHL players out of guys who had ho hum ahl season’s early in their careers.

 

[devilsblood]

looks like Guadana and Devilsblood could use some eyedrops.

Is that Joe?

 

[Caser]

Drafted the same year. Bardakov is 22. Stillman 20.

Edit: Educated guessing here but Bardakov's DY KHL numbers were likely more a shooting % heater then indication of goal scoring potential. 8-3-11 in 44 games. Followed by 1-2-3 in 19 the following year(0-2-2 in 16 playoff games). 6-12-18 in 42 this year(1-2-3 in 9 playoff games). So the assists picked up a little, but still below that DY goal rate.

Players like Bardakov are a bit of an unusual case if we talk about the Russian prospects, since points stat is a very indirect indicator of their quality. Bardakov's game is mostly about the motor, power, two-way game, going to the dirty areas and collecting some "tertiary assists" by providing quality screens - those type of things don't provide much points, but are quite valuable. I like his shot too, but I think that's more like a bonus to that basic package.

 

[devilsblood]

Players like Bardakov are a bit of an unusual case if we talk about the Russian prospects, since points stat is a very indirect indicator of their quality. Bardakov's game is mostly about the motor, power, two-way game, going to the dirty areas and collecting some "tertiary assists" by providing quality screens - those type of things don't provide much points, but are quite valuable. I like his shot too, but I think that's more like a bonus to that basic package.

Same can be said of Stillman.

 

[Guadana]

looks like Guadana and Devilsblood could use some eyedrops.

Its my morning routine. Lemon juice in pipette.

 

[Triumph]

Same can be said of Stillman.

It really can't, not yet anyway because he hasn't done it in any sort of pro league, but I agree that thinking that Bardakov is a better prospect than Stillman on draft day 2021 is ridiculous. After 2021-22, yeah, absolutely.

BTW, KHL stats are available online. Bardakov shot 15% in 2020-21 and has 7 goals in 85 shots (~8.3%) since.

 

[BurntToast]

I have league biases (Pro>>>>Juniors). I also value prospects as assets until they make it as established players.

For Example: Rango’s rise and trade.

He was middling (at best) until Covid. Killed it in the KHL and was able to take the reigns and run with it. He slumped as a prospect but netted the Devils, a 30 goal scorer.

Example 2: The Sharks went for Muk.

The ranking/analysis on Lenni are divisive, but he performs extremely well (regardless of skill) and performance has blinded many into good and bad trades.

Vilen improved and found success in a mens league. I can see his value as a player or a trade asset.

 

[devilsblood]

It really can't, not yet anyway because he hasn't done it in any sort of pro league, but I agree that thinking that Bardakov is a better prospect than Stillman on draft day 2021 is ridiculous. After 2021-22, yeah, absolutely.

BTW, KHL stats are available online. Bardakov shot 15% in 2020-21 and has 7 goals in 85 shots (~8.3%) since.

The assumption was pretty safe and turned out to be accurate, I guess I'm pretty good at this, but thanks for checking into it.
'
And Bardakov had played in the KHL prior to being drafted, so you must agree he was a better prospect on draft day 2021? I'm pretty confused.

 

[RememberTheName]

It really can't, not yet anyway because he hasn't done it in any sort of pro league, but I agree that thinking that Bardakov is a better prospect than Stillman on draft day 2021 is ridiculous. After 2021-22, yeah, absolutely.

BTW, KHL stats are available online. Bardakov shot 15% in 2020-21 and has 7 goals in 85 shots (~8.3%) since.

I don't think it was that ridiculous to have Bardakov above Stillman on draft day 2021. It's all a personal preference thing. I had Bardakov pegged as an early 3rd rounder, Stillman as a late 3rd-early 4th kind of player. Bardakov was I think the best overager I had ranked in that entire draft and was seen as a more or less safe pick where you knew exactly what you were getting, while Stillman a bit less so. I said after the draft that Bardakov was the 2nd best player we got out of the draft even though we took him in the 7th round. Even with the low upside, he was the kind of player you could see filling a perfect role on the 4th line as a heavy-playing energy guy who can bang around the net. I definitely understand why people had Stillman ranked a little bit higher, and that was because if he panned out, stylistically, he might be a better fit a bit higher up in the lineup with more offensive potential, but that was obviously assuming everything came around for him, which it hasn't. Bardakov was as safe of a pick as you could make in the 2021 draft after the 1st round, which is why I don't necessarily understand how he fell to the 7th (maybe teams heard rumors he wasn't interested in coming overseas?).

Not exactly the same, but there's reasons STI thinks Karpovich is the best player we got out of this most recent draft and we took him with our last selection here as well. I don't necessarily agree, but just because it might be unpopular doesn't mean it is a ridiculous take. You never know who will be right down the line.

 

[Guadana]

It really can't, not yet anyway because he hasn't done it in any sort of pro league, but I agree that thinking that Bardakov is a better prospect than Stillman on draft day 2021 is ridiculous. After 2021-22, yeah, absolutely.

BTW, KHL stats are available online. Bardakov shot 15% in 2020-21 and has 7 goals in 85 shots (~8.3%) since.

He was. He shown result for his age in KHL(its mean its great to have results in KHL for his age and his role). Sorry, I forgot that dannish league is more competent league and that winger with motor and no positional vision is a better prospect than center with motor and positional vision who was good in his limited role in "less" (more) competent league.

And when you cant understand evaluation of prospects, you should say "why" and ask questions overall. May be a lot of thing that was clear after some time for you, would be more clear for the beggining as it was for some other posters. Who watched more leagues and understand theconditions, talent ratios and possible development prospects depending on the initial data.

Contact me, I am always happy to help and prompt. When I dont or didnt understand something, I asked Steve. Human help and someone else's experience are the best means for learning.

 

[Triumph]

I don't think it was that ridiculous to have Bardakov above Stillman on draft day 2021. It's all a personal preference thing. I had Bardakov pegged as an early 3rd rounder, Stillman as a late 3rd-early 4th kind of player. Bardakov was I think the best overager I had ranked in that entire draft and was seen as a more or less safe pick where you knew exactly what you were getting, while Stillman a bit less so. I said after the draft that Bardakov was the 2nd best player we got out of the draft even though we took him in the 7th round. Even with the low upside, he was the kind of player you could see filling a perfect role on the 4th line as a heavy-playing energy guy who can bang around the net. I definitely understand why people had Stillman ranked a little bit higher, and that was because if he panned out, stylistically, he might be a better fit a bit higher up in the lineup with more offensive potential, but that was obviously assuming everything came around for him, which it hasn't. Bardakov was as safe of a pick as you could make in the 2021 draft after the 1st round, which is why I don't necessarily understand how he fell to the 7th (maybe teams heard rumors he wasn't interested in coming overseas?).

That's just it, though, Bardakov is now 22 and hasn't come over, and he's UFA in 2028. I also don't value 4th liners a whole lot, especially ones who will immediately run into arbitration rights. The Devils just ditched Boqvist in part because he was arbitration-eligible - he was 24 turning 25. It's a great pick for the 7th round and I thought so at the time, and I don't like the selection of Stillman, but Stillman'll be out of the organization before Bardakov is in it. Just rating guys based on talent isn't doing all the work.

Not exactly the same, but there's reasons STI thinks Karpovich is the best player we got out of this most recent draft and we took him with our last selection here as well. I don't necessarily agree, but just because it might be unpopular doesn't mean it is a ridiculous take. You never know who will be right down the line.

Everyone disagreeing with something doesn't make it a ridiculous take, I agree.

He was. He shown result for his age in KHL(its mean its great to have results in KHL for his age and his role). Sorry, I forgot that dannish league is more competent league and that winger with motor and no positional vision is a better prospect than center with motor and positional vision who was good in his limited role in "less" (more) competent league.

Don't try this sort of sarcasm, you're not very good at it. Honestly if you want sarcasm lessons, try asking me instead. Obviously the Danish league is terrible and Stillman's results there meaningless - it was very funny when Masisak asked Fitzgerald about that and Fitz had no idea what he was talking about.

Bardakov had very good results as a D+2 in the KHL, that's nice, it's a great pick in the 7th round. If he had been taken in the 3rd round, I'd be less happy with it.

And when you cant understand evaluation of prospects, you should say "why" and ask questions overall. May be a lot of thing that was clear after some time for you, would be more clear for the beggining as it was for some other posters. Who watched more leagues and understand theconditions, talent ratios and possible development prospects depending on the initial data.

Contact me, I am always happy to help and prompt. When I dont or didnt understand something, I asked Steve. Human help and someone else's experience are the best means for learning.

This kind of offer might sound legitimate if it hadn't been preceded by an assertion that I was relying on Danish league results. I understand why someone would have Bardakov over Stillman in 2021 - I think it's not taking into account ages, upside, and contract status/availability to do so.

 

[Guttersniped]

Stat watching only gets you so far. Stillman played 8 games in the Danish league, who gives a shit.

He look at these stats, I guess these players must be pretty similar.

Or not.

There’s more to this than looking at leagues and stats.

I know people know this, but I can’t stress how zero shits I give when conversation turns to stat watching. Just my 2 cents.

 

[Jason MacIsaac]

People have to stop stressing about the 2021 NHL draft, it was a complete dart board with covid.

 

[My3Sons]

That's just it, though, Bardakov is now 22 and hasn't come over, and he's UFA in 2028. I also don't value 4th liners a whole lot, especially ones who will immediately run into arbitration rights. The Devils just ditched Boqvist in part because he was arbitration-eligible - he was 24 turning 25. It's a great pick for the 7th round and I thought so at the time, and I don't like the selection of Stillman, but Stillman'll be out of the organization before Bardakov is in it. Just rating guys based on talent isn't doing all the work.



Everyone disagreeing with something doesn't make it a ridiculous take, I agree.



Don't try this sort of sarcasm, you're not very good at it. Honestly if you want sarcasm lessons, try asking me instead. Obviously the Danish league is terrible and Stillman's results there meaningless - it was very funny when Masisak asked Fitzgerald about that and Fitz had no idea what he was talking about.

Bardakov had very good results as a D+2 in the KHL, that's nice, it's a great pick in the 7th round. If he had been taken in the 3rd round, I'd be less happy with it.



This kind of offer might sound legitimate if it hadn't been preceded by an assertion that I was relying on Danish league results. I understand why someone would have Bardakov over Stillman in 2021 - I think it's not taking into account ages, upside, and contract status/availability to do so.

You make some good points. I will suggest that for a fourth liner the UFA thing isn’t a big deal. Boquist hung around for a while and so did McLeod and maybe Bastian? If Bardakhov wants to come over and play a few NHL seasons I’d expect it to work out. It might boil down to something like Sarge bring on staff and if NJ has another top season or two. Not a huge deal either way but we will see.

 

[nugg]

Filmon, add that Pirate Barabossa

 

[nugg]

People have to stop stressing about the 2021 NHL draft, it was a complete dart board with covid.

There were a few good picks in there, though only time will tell if they pan out (Vilen, Malek, Bardakov). Stillman I don't consider a good pick, but he could turn out to be an ok bottom of the lineup guy. Luke was a good pick, sure, but certainly not a sleeper. He could end up being the top player from the draft though, which is obviously a plus.

 

[Guadana]

That's just it, though, Bardakov is now 22 and hasn't come over, and he's UFA in 2028. I also don't value 4th liners a whole lot, especially ones who will immediately run into arbitration rights. The Devils just ditched Boqvist in part because he was arbitration-eligible - he was 24 turning 25. It's a great pick for the 7th round and I thought so at the time, and I don't like the selection of Stillman, but Stillman'll be out of the organization before Bardakov is in it. Just rating guys based on talent isn't doing all the work.



Everyone disagreeing with something doesn't make it a ridiculous take, I agree.



Don't try this sort of sarcasm, you're not very good at it. Honestly if you want sarcasm lessons, try asking me instead. Obviously the Danish league is terrible and Stillman's results there meaningless - it was very funny when Masisak asked Fitzgerald about that and Fitz had no idea what he was talking about.

Bardakov had very good results as a D+2 in the KHL, that's nice, it's a great pick in the 7th round. If he had been taken in the 3rd round, I'd be less happy with it.



This kind of offer might sound legitimate if it hadn't been preceded by an assertion that I was relying on Danish league results. I understand why someone would have Bardakov over Stillman in 2021 - I think it's not taking into account ages, upside, and contract status/availability to do so.

I agree with you absolutely. I'm bad in sarcasm. You are bad in evaluating prospects and ranking the leagues. Everybody have strengths and weaknesses.

We don't know yet, but Bardakov can join organisation next year. And rankng guys based on talent isn't doing all the work, but with Stillman we have questionable NHL potential. If Bardakov will play one decent season and will face free market or will sign one orr two years deal, it could be more than Stillman will ever have. Hope he will develop his game in AHL.
And you are right, its not about talent, its about being good for the role, position and need too. Bardakov is rare center in our system, he is rare defensive center. Stillman is right winger and now, Devils don't have any real problem with RW depth, and Stillman should start to be very good to play regular in bottom line. Bardakov is center and he is playing already good for his role.

Or may be Stillman was and is better prospect than Zetterlund and Foote because he has more ELC years?

Everything can change but for now Bardakov in miles ahead.

 

[Guadana]

People have to stop stressing about the 2021 NHL draft, it was a complete dart board with covid.

Personally I can't agree. There were a lot of conversations about players, who was drafted in second round. There were tapes. And gms decided to pick Boucher, Svexhkov, Stillman, Olausson, Sulum. May be some of them will develop their game, but there were more obvious players with better skills and better potential. And a lot of different people talked about them, from lazy writers to draft nerds.
Like I always like to say, after this draft our chl scout was fired and Castron was pushed from head scout position.

 

[Triumph]

I agree with you absolutely. I'm bad in sarcasm. You are bad in evaluating prospects and ranking the leagues. Everybody have strengths and weaknesses.

We don't know yet, but Bardakov can join organisation next year. And rankng guys based on talent isn't doing all the work, but with Stillman we have questionable NHL potential. If Bardakov will play one decent season and will face free market or will sign one orr two years deal, it could be more than Stillman will ever have. Hope he will develop his game in AHL.
And you are right, its not about talent, its about being good for the role, position and need too. Bardakov is rare center in our system, he is rare defensive center. Stillman is right winger and now, Devils don't have any real problem with RW depth, and Stillman should start to be very good to play regular in bottom line. Bardakov is center and he is playing already good for his role.

Or may be Stillman was and is better prospect than Zetterlund and Foote because he has more ELC years?

Everything can change but for now Bardakov in miles ahead.

Very obviously Bardakov is ahead of Stillman now because Stillman has almost no chance at becoming a regular NHL player, and I acknowledged as much above. We were talking about 2021.